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Post by steadyeddy on May 12, 2023 2:16:10 GMT
If it was me I would buy RCTIX instead of PIMIX. RCTIX has small AUM=0.5 billion, and much better risk reward = to better performance and volatility + income is matching. A chart is worth a 1000 words. schrts.co/GhshmzQYYTD chart is another proof, see how PIMIX goes down 4% while RCTIX has much lower volatility schrts.co/pdDUaxsJThis is not a recommendation, you got to do your own due diligence. As long as I can find one fund better than PIMIX, I would never invest in it. FD1000, you are comparing a well-established 130B Morningstar gold rated fund with a relative newcomer 0.4B Morningstar Neutral rated fund. M* is questioning the parent & people at River Canyon in their fund report (snippet attached) It had 0.9B assets in 2021 and now around 0.4B, obviously investors seem to be not attracted to it to stay with it. There is no telling whether RCTIX ends up in a gutter if some financial whiplashes occur. I am surprised with your suggestion that RCTIX be considered instead.
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Post by Chahta on May 12, 2023 2:42:05 GMT
M* is showing 14% derivatives for PIMIX. 2020 was brutal to funds holding derivatives. As YBB told us, derivative loses are permanent. Here we go again.
This year should be good for bonds if rates have peaked but I’m just not trusting derivatives. I have a fund with 10%, as I discovered today. I may look hard at trading it out for another.
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Post by steadyeddy on May 12, 2023 2:57:21 GMT
M* is showing 14% derivatives for PIMIX. 2020 was brutal to funds holding derivatives. As YBB told us, derivative loses are permanent. Here we go again. This year should be good for bonds if rates have peaked but I’m just not trusting derivatives. I have a fund with 10%, as I discovered today. I may look hard at trading it out for another. Interesting point. I need to examine my portfolio to see if minor adjustments are needed. I am long PIMIX for now.
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Post by FD1000 on May 12, 2023 4:02:42 GMT
If it was me I would buy RCTIX instead of PIMIX. RCTIX has small AUM=0.5 billion, and much better risk reward = to better performance and volatility + income is matching. A chart is worth a 1000 words. schrts.co/GhshmzQYYTD chart is another proof, see how PIMIX goes down 4% while RCTIX has much lower volatility schrts.co/pdDUaxsJThis is not a recommendation, you got to do your own due diligence. As long as I can find one fund better than PIMIX, I would never invest in it. FD1000 , you are comparing a well-established 130B Morningstar gold rated fund with a relative newcomer 0.4B Morningstar Neutral rated fund. M* is questioning the parent & people at River Canyon in their fund report (snippet attached) It had 0.9B assets in 2021 and now around 0.4B, obviously investors seem to be not attracted to it to stay with it. There is no telling whether RCTIX ends up in a gutter if some financial whiplashes occur. I am surprised with your suggestion that RCTIX be considered instead. View AttachmentRemember what I posted IF IT WAS ME. Your money = your decision. That was easy. M* rating is nonsense and biased. They say similar stuff about RSIIX/RSIVX, again, another good fund. On the other hand, there are people who really dive in and find nuggets. See the following report about RSIVX( www.mutualfundobserver.com/2023/04/riverpark-strategic-income-fund-rsivx-april-2023/)..."In all honesty, about 80% of all mutual funds could shut their doors today and not be missed. They thrive by never being bad enough to dump nominally active funds, whose strategy and portfolio are barely distinguishable from an index. The mission of the Observer is to help identify the small, thoughtful, disciplined, active funds whose existence actually matters." Pimco PDIIX was rated GOLD by M* too using the same BS, but what a "surprise" since 2018 it made less than 6%. ( schrts.co/wRYHNNgU) Wait, Ivascyn + Murata manage PIMIX too. Follow the money = follow the charts, data.
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Post by roi2020 on May 12, 2023 6:16:18 GMT
If it was me I would buy RCTIX instead of PIMIX. RCTIX has small AUM=0.5 billion, and much better risk reward = to better performance and volatility + income is matching. A chart is worth a 1000 words. schrts.co/GhshmzQYYTD chart is another proof, see how PIMIX goes down 4% while RCTIX has much lower volatility schrts.co/pdDUaxsJThis is not a recommendation, you got to do your own due diligence. As long as I can find one fund better than PIMIX, I would never invest in it. George Jikovski was the sole RCTIX fund manager from inception (12/30/2014) through 03/25/2022. He abruptly left River Canyon Fund Management in March 2022. How did you factor in this event when considering RCTIX?
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Post by Fearchar on May 12, 2023 9:08:30 GMT
FD may have a good point here and I own a lot of PIMIX.... So, I'll be taking a closer look. Here are the current managers as listed by Etrade with profiles from www.canyonpartners.com/our-team/3/25/2022 Manager: Todd Lemkin DALLAS Todd Lemkin is an Investment Partner and Chief Investment Officer of Canyon Capital Advisors. Mr. Lemkin joined Canyon in 2003 and is responsible for the efforts of CCA’s portfolio team to develop, analyze, and implement investment ideas across the firm’s global platform. Mr. Lemkin has extensive investment expertise across the cable, media, telecom, satellite, industrials, real estate, gaming, and packaging sectors. Prior to this role, Mr. Lemkin focused on Canyon’s European investment effort and the firm’s London office. Prior to joining Canyon, Mr. Lemkin worked at Scoggin Capital Management, where he focused on analyzing securities of distressed and bankrupt companies. Mr. Lemkin was also an Investment Banker in the Healthcare Group of Banc of America Securities and the Mergers & Acquisitions Group of Lehman Brothers. Mr. Lemkin is a member of the Board of Governors of Cedar Sinai Hospital as well as a Director of Atlas Crest Investment Corp. (“ACII”). Mr. Lemkin is a graduate of the University of California, Berkeley (B.A., English). 3/25/2022 Samuel Reid DALLAS Sam Reid is an Investment Partner at Canyon. Mr. Reid joined Canyon in 2008 and is a Portfolio Manager for River Canyon funds. Prior to this role, Mr. Reid was Head Debt Trader for Canyon’s investments across the firm’s global platform. Prior to joining Canyon, Mr. Reid worked at JPMorgan Chase as a sell-side High Yield Credit trader, where he traded CDS and high yield bonds in both a market making and proprietary trading capacity. Mr. Reid is a graduate of Georgetown University (dual B.S., International Business and Finance). Mr. Reid is a CFA® charterholder. 1/28/2023 Adam Rizkalla (note: Aaron Rizkalla probably his brother is Senior VP in Los Angeles) Adam Rizkalla is a Senior Vice President within the Investment team at Canyon. Mr. Rizkalla joined Canyon in 2022 and primarily focuses on structured products including asset-backed securities, residential mortgage-backed securities, and commercial mortgage-backed securities. Prior to joining Canyon, Mr. Rizkalla worked at Thornburg Investment Management, where he invested in a variety of structured products. Previously, Mr. Rizkalla worked at J.P. Morgan as an investment banker in the Structured Products Group. Mr. Rizkalla is a graduate of Seattle Pacific University (B.A., Accounting). Mr. Rizkalla is a CFA® charterholder.
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Post by steadyeddy on May 12, 2023 13:11:50 GMT
FD may have a good point here and I own a lot of PIMIX.... So, I'll be taking a closer look. <edited for brevity> Fearchar, I suppose you are taking a closer look at PIMIX? I would be interested to learn your findings.
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Post by FD1000 on May 12, 2023 14:00:05 GMT
I have nothing personally against any fund/manager. It's all about risk/reward, after all I started to own PIMIX in 2010 and had over 50% for several years until 01/2018. From memory, PIMIX AUM used to be over 150 billion and now "just" 121 billion, still too large to manage effectively. Ivascyn, the most important manager in Pimco is an MBS specialist. Over the years, no matter what happened, his solution/answer is mainly MBS, and not the "safe" ones. This idea is implemented across several funds and CEFs. That's actually scare me that Ivascyn has been using the same hammer for different assignments. Even if he is correct, it's a problem to solve with so much money. Great managers have great ideas for the first, second, maybe even tenth billions. It gets harder after that. So, why did I owned PIMIX for years because the return was great, but the risk/SD was great too. These days are over. Forget 2022, that was an unusual event where the Fed increased rates and crushed bond funds. A typical investor wants "safety" from bonds. A more sophisticated one, is willing to take higher risk/SD, to get much higher performance. Then you have to ask yourself, are the coming months going to be "normal"? I already said in 11/2022 that bond funds have a good chance to recoup all their losses within 12-18 months. Why is the world do I want to use PIMIX? I have been using HY Munis, take a look at VWALX. Bonds are contractual vehicles, whatever they lost, they get it back, most times within 12-18 months. I trust VWALX a lot more than PIMIX...until inflation + rates stabilize and bond fund make up their losses. PIMIX is a black box, that keeps changing. See attach 1+2 If I want to look at other choices, I prefer small AUM funds such as RSIIX/RSIVX + RCTIX. Higher distributions BOND funds tend to do better, both have yield of 7%+. Both have shown a much better risk/reward in the last several years. RCTIX: the new managers have over a year under their belt, the results are very good, the last turnover I can find is 122 from 09/2022, that's enough to convince me these managers made a lot of changes, so far it's good. For one year RCTIX and PIMIX are close, but PIMIX has a lot more volatility, see attach 3. YTD: RCTIX leads with very limited volatility while PIMIX lost 4%. It's not new that I don't follow what others are doing, I'm a trader, but since 11/2022 when I posted that the market turned around I have been trading only HY munis based of their performance and definitely it's not VWALX. So, is PIMIX a good fund? it is. I always want to do better with lower SD/risk. The more I own a security, the more I want to know about it.
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Post by Chahta on May 12, 2023 14:00:26 GMT
If one wants to analyze things to death, I get it. For someone that has owned PIMIX since the end of 2011 at $10.85, you have accumulated a lot of income and only lost $.35 in principal. And it has been $10.85 several times since. That is a classic income investor. PIMIX is at a great price now. Afterall, PIMIX is an INCOME fund. Look at the prospectus and it says so in the fund name. You either trust the manager or not. Go ahead and make a trading opportunity out of it if you want because the first look at decline you will be gone.
All of our ports are for providing money to live. Call it what you want, but there are many roads to success. Unless one is an aggressive trader avoiding any loss of value is not realistic. JMHO.
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Post by Fearchar on May 12, 2023 14:14:04 GMT
Thanks FD1000, Honestly, I can't forget or overlook 2022. Yes; it was an unusual year. However, the better managers should have seen it coming and/or responded aggressively early in the year. PIMIX was down 7.81% for the year while RCTIX was down 4.07%. Does that alone make PIMIX a bad choice; no. It does however point out a recent performance issue. And yes; I agree managing over $100B is never going to be easy. But individual investors should not be awarding bonus points for difficulty!
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Post by FD1000 on May 12, 2023 14:20:17 GMT
Fearchar, you are correct about 2022, I meant to say that 2022 was bad for all bond funds. In 2022, PIMIX did pretty good to the category because PIMIX managers still use tools most don't, and did great if you consider such a huge AUM. We use to discuss PIMIX for years, its success lead to this huge AUM.
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Post by steadyeddy on May 12, 2023 18:48:17 GMT
<edited for brevity> So, is PIMIX a good fund? it is. <edited the rest out> FD1000, the highlight is golden words from you. I do not chase funds. Leave good enough alone. There is always a flavor of the day at Baskin Robbins!
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mikes425
Commander
generally happy in semi-retirement and dividend income-land
Posts: 126
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Post by mikes425 on May 16, 2023 19:56:32 GMT
Reduced Equity from 47 to 45% and invested proceeds in BILS (1-3 Mo. T-BILL) ETF. FWIW. The tandem movement of bond and equity funds together is supremely frustrating this year, esp. given last year's worst-ever bond performance
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Post by FD1000 on May 16, 2023 22:52:10 GMT
Reduced Equity from 47 to 45% and invested proceeds in BILS (1-3 Mo. T-BILL) ETF. FWIW. The tandem movement of bond and equity funds together is supremely frustrating this year, esp. given last year's worst-ever bond performance Why BILS? When MM beats it with zero risk/volatility. See YTD VS VMFXX which pays by the end of each month. It also beat it for 1-2 years. BTW, every time you trade BILS you get lower price because of bid-ask and you may pay an additional small fee, while funds don't have it schrts.co/PUfhVCAY
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mikes425
Commander
generally happy in semi-retirement and dividend income-land
Posts: 126
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Post by mikes425 on May 17, 2023 4:29:22 GMT
Reduced Equity from 47 to 45% and invested proceeds in BILS (1-3 Mo. T-BILL) ETF. FWIW. The tandem movement of bond a Why BILS? When MM beats it with zero risk/volatility. See YTD VS VMFXX which pays by the end of each month. It also beat it for 1-2 years. BTW, every time you trade BILS you get lower price because of bid-ask and you may pay an additional small fee, while funds don't have it schrts.co/PUfhVCAYBILS is currently yielding above 5% .02% boost over my SWVXX MM with very little interest rate or credit risk. Just seemed like a reasonable holding, and i’m not doing any active trading in and out of it.
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Post by colorado on May 17, 2023 17:00:33 GMT
I have used Bond funds selectively in the past, but I don't see the relative attractiveness now. When rates stabilize, and inflation is under control, I will review the attractiveness of selective Bond funds at that time. Presently, I am content with other income options
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Post by FD1000 on May 18, 2023 3:48:10 GMT
Why BILS? When MM beats it with zero risk/volatility. See YTD VS VMFXX which pays by the end of each month. It also beat it for 1-2 years. BTW, every time you trade BILS you get lower price because of bid-ask and you may pay an additional small fee, while funds don't have it schrts.co/PUfhVCAYBILS is currently yielding above 5% .02% boost over my SWVXX MM with very little interest rate or credit risk. Just seemed like a reasonable holding, and i’m not doing any active trading in and out of it. The yield they published is not what you get with these indexes. The last BILS dist were 0.38 * 12 months = 4.56 / 99.49(NAV) = 4.6% annually. BILS performance includes dist + appreciation. VWVXX pays 4.9%, while VMFXX pays 5%. This is per year. YTD to 4/30: VWVXX=1.48...VMFXX=1.51...BILS=1.39. You can measure it once a month, after MM pays dist. As I said before, MM made more money for YTD + 1-2 years than BILS, with zero volatility, and zero fees + every time you trade BILS you lose a bit more because of bid-ask. You can hold MM long term. When BILS will be better? When the Fed + markets agree that ST will not go higher and then rates will go down. But wait, when that happens, inter-LT bond funds will do better, and why I never bought high-rated ST funds, similar discussion to VGSH in the past. The bird in the hand, MM, is an easy hold for most making 4.8-5%, why bother with high-rated ST ETF?
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mikes425
Commander
generally happy in semi-retirement and dividend income-land
Posts: 126
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Post by mikes425 on May 18, 2023 4:07:23 GMT
FD1000 , ok, sounds sensible… i just made the trades but if i can access VMFXX and hold at Schwab(?} perhaps should go with that instead if its really a significsnt difference. Amount in BILS is abt 112k. Also abt 30k in MINT … and other larger pre existing ST positions like SHY. Maybe i shd liquidate MINT that into MM too ? There is the matter of convenience. I’m guessing theres not an equivalent 5% MM at Schwab where i hold all my accounts It would be simpler if i could find a 5+% MM there vs having to use a separate VG acct just to hold their MM fund. Have not really looked into this tho so maybe theres a way to buy/hold VMFXX in a Schwab acct (like VG stock/bond funds I Do have and can trade there) — but im not sure abt their MM funds(?) Anyway tho, yeah it does seem somewhat a no brainer to roll with a safe 5% MM vs BILS unless i’m missing something about the BILS recommendation by my occasional FA. Thanks PS..So i gather you wouldnt be crazy about say, SCHO, SHY, or VCSH. (Also ones FA recommended, and sees no cause to move out of}. And i HAVE asked. I think the blanet respinse is, diversification + good DIV income and, short durations with low int rate risk.
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Post by FD1000 on May 18, 2023 10:51:25 GMT
VWVXX at 4.9% is just 0.1% less than VMFXX, I wouldn't open another account at VG. Most of my money is at Schwab too. I never believed in diversification.
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Post by racqueteer on May 18, 2023 11:40:59 GMT
One of the keys with diversification is that it is predicated on the premise that one is going to "set and forget" their portfolio; i.e., be a passive investor. If one is NOT going to DO that, then 'diversification' is less important. Determining what type of investor you are going to be is the primary decision you must make. Then adopt the allocation percentages with which you will be comfortable. If, otoh, you are planning to make adjustments to WHAT you own, or the degree to which you own it, then why diversify?
Which specific investments one chooses and how that choice is made, is an entirely different issue.
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Post by johntaylor on May 18, 2023 15:06:50 GMT
Investment gr corp bonds roughly 5 percent
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Post by FD1000 on May 18, 2023 15:45:45 GMT
TIPS ETF is down at around noon -0.35%. The problem with ETFs is the fact that during stress, they are more volatile. The problem with diversification, during stress, usually only treasuries save you. And sometimes, very little works, AKA 2022.
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Post by FD1000 on May 18, 2023 23:06:38 GMT
I'm in 99+% MM which pays 4.8 (for treasuries) and more. The bird in the hand is very easy to hold and wait for the next trade. HY munies ST+LT T/A signaled a buy, but it was too late, rates started going up, debt ceiling is troubling = wait and see.The only other good option is RPHIX which I posted about 6 months ago. See the chart below. schrts.co/AKACuyTK================ catdog, PONAX ER=0.91% Always look at the source. www.pimco.com/en-us/investments/mutual-funds/income-fund/aWell, the above was from May 9th, it was another "lucky" guess. Attachments:
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Post by johnsmith on May 19, 2023 16:13:14 GMT
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Post by FD1000 on May 19, 2023 22:50:59 GMT
EDV 10-13% volatility is higher than the SP500....and that was when rates mostly stabilized. Attachments:
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Post by johnsmith on May 20, 2023 0:03:10 GMT
EDV 10-13% volatility is higher than the SP500....and that was when rates mostly stabilized. i'm listening, so what does that mean?
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Post by FD1000 on May 20, 2023 0:29:03 GMT
EDV 10-13% volatility is higher than the SP500....and that was when rates mostly stabilized. i'm listening, so what does that mean? Before I invest in something I ask myself: What % of my portfolio is it going to be? What is the goal? Is it a trade, how long I will hold, why now and not a month ago or next month, why this one compared to another. When an investment has a higher volatility than the SP500, I'm expecting a better performance.
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Post by habsui on May 20, 2023 1:12:16 GMT
I have traded TLT twice this year. First time, I made about 10%, the second time around 5%. Over the last two days, I started a new position.
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Post by FD1000 on May 20, 2023 4:07:11 GMT
I have traded TLT twice this year. First time, I made about 10%, the second time around 5%. Over the last two days, I started a new position. Excellent. I love when investors make money. If I wanted to invest, my charts must prove it first, and right now they don't. As a rule of thumb, I don't invest in funds with volatility much higher than SPY, especially not bonds.
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Post by johnsmith on May 20, 2023 12:49:15 GMT
thanks. that makes sense now.
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