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Post by johnsmith on May 1, 2023 11:51:41 GMT
TLDR
- no one wants to be Arthur Burns - everyone wants to be Paul Volcker
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Post by retiredat48 on May 1, 2023 17:56:03 GMT
TLDR
- no one wants to be Arthur Burns - everyone wants to be Paul Volcker
,...I generally agree the interpersonal assessment you write is key. However,what if in doing so we get the new worst fed and fed leader ever...worse than Volker and Burns. And how could/would this happen, you ask? The fed refuses to lower rates as a strong recession takes hold; that turns into a depression. Perhaps even a world-wide depression. Then Powell would be the new leader in badness...or stupidity, take your pick. Leadership requires that one do the best for the country; not the best for self-serving reasons. Takes courage. At least that is what my Dad taught me. R48 |
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Post by steadyeddy on May 1, 2023 18:06:08 GMT
The Fed is data dependent, so it is hard to make emphatic statements like the author in the article does.
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Post by retiredat48 on May 4, 2023 15:12:24 GMT
TLDR
- no one wants to be Arthur Burns - everyone wants to be Paul Volcker
,...I generally agree the interpersonal assessment you write is key. However,what if in doing so we get the new worst fed and fed leader ever...worse than Volker and Burns. And how could/would this happen, you ask? The fed refuses to lower rates as a strong recession takes hold; that turns into a depression. Perhaps even a world-wide depression. Then Powell would be the new leader in badness...or stupidity, take your pick. Leadership requires that one do the best for the country; not the best for self-serving reasons. Takes courage. At least that is what my Dad taught me. R48 Continuing...Saw it in Powell's face yesterday...real concern. He would be a bad poker player. So now we bring into play the writing in the History Books of the Future... A chapter titled: "Chairman Powell: The bank Regulator who bankrupted/put-out-of-business, 90% of the Banks!!"--------------------- R48 |
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Post by johntaylor on May 4, 2023 16:17:53 GMT
"The European Central Bank increased interest rates by a quarter-point on Thursday, following the Federal Reserve. The move brings its main refinancing rate for the 20 countries sharing the euro to 3.75%..."
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Post by steadyeddy on May 4, 2023 16:38:34 GMT
johnsmith ,...I generally agree the interpersonal assessment you write is key. However,what if in doing so we get the new worst fed and fed leader ever...worse than Volker and Burns. And how could/would this happen, you ask? The fed refuses to lower rates as a strong recession takes hold; that turns into a depression. Perhaps even a world-wide depression. Then Powell would be the new leader in badness...or stupidity, take your pick. Leadership requires that one do the best for the country; not the best for self-serving reasons. Takes courage. At least that is what my Dad taught me. R48 Continuing...Saw it in Powell's face yesterday...real concern. He would be a bad poker player. So now we bring into play the writing in the History Books of the Future... A chapter titled: "Chairman Powell: The bank Regulator who bankrupted/put-out-of-business, 90% of the Banks!!"--------------------- R48 , I agree that there is no reason deposits stay with regional banks since even uninsured deposits are being covered, and there is no reason for investors to hold regional bank stocks or bonds. What do you think could turn the tide and stabilize the smaller banks? |
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2023 16:51:47 GMT
I thought small-mid s&l banks have history of going out of business. This not the first or the last time
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Post by Mustang on May 4, 2023 19:40:22 GMT
A lot of gloom and doom. I'm not that pessimistic. The fed has finally reached the rate they pretty much have said from the beginning they needed to reach. I really doubt there will be a pivot but their could be a pause to see how the economy reacts.
From what I have read the bank failures were more a result of poor management than rate increases.
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Post by retiredat48 on May 4, 2023 21:47:33 GMT
R48 posted: Continuing...Saw it in Powell's face yesterday...real concern. He would be a bad poker player.
So now we bring into play the writing in the History Books of the Future... A chapter titled: "Chairman Powell: The bank Regulator who bankrupted/put-out-of-business, 90% of the Banks!!"
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R48
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retiredat48, I agree that there is no reason deposits stay with regional banks since even uninsured deposits are being covered, and there is no reason for investors to hold regional bank stocks or bonds.
What do you think could turn the tide and stabilize the smaller banks?
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R48 reply: I'm agnostic (sorry--big word) re banks failing...BUT:...from memory:
We had about 4000 saving and loan associations go out of business in 1980's shakeout. (Almost all).
Regional banks have gone from approx 8000 to 4000 over the years. Some suggest we do not need nearly this many regional banks.
Key problem is investor short-selling, driving the stocks down in price where bank fails capital ratios...and has to close.
What could turn the tide:
--fed regulation outlawing short-selling for a time period...weeks or months. Was done during 2008 crisis.
--fed pick one regional bank and begin buying all (100%) of available shares...for now. Drive the shorts crazy. Fear for shorts is not knowing which bank the fed selects next to protect. Shorts begin covering en masse.
--Buffett come in and buy shares of one regional...announce it. Others follow this buying. Shorts on the run. REegional shares stabilize.
--Fed lower rates!! Immediately...shorts running for the hills.
R48
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Post by johnsmith on May 5, 2023 0:19:45 GMT
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