Post by Fearchar on Apr 14, 2023 11:40:38 GMT
JP Morgan provides a Weekly Market Recap with brief commentary.
I try to read it each week and rely on it for the forward S&P500 P/E
which allows me to calculate forward earnings estimates.
Here is link to the site: JPM Market Recap
Anyhow, this week commentary was interesting.
Here is what they wrote and published Monday AM:
"Last week, the March ISM manufacturing and services PMIs
provided a timely read on the outlook for growth.
The headline manufacturing reading declined to 46.3, the lowest
reading since May 2020, due to decreases in new orders,
inventories and employment. Meanwhile, the headline services
PMI decreased to 51.2 but remained above the key
level of 50, with new orders, business activity and prices
seeing notable declines. Switching to the labor market,
according to the February JOLTS report, job openings fell
6% to 9.9 million but remain well above the pre-pandemic
trend. Furthermore, while total nonfarm quits did increase
3.8% m/m, we have seen a general downward trend in quits
since they peaked in late 2021. Meanwhile, Friday’s
employment report echoed a similar message.
The unemployment rate decreased to 3.5% in March, well below the
long-term average of 6.2%. However, total nonfarm
employment only grew by 236k, a notable deceleration from
the prior month, and wage growth decelerated to 4.2% y/y.
Looking ahead, the question will be whether the Fed interprets
these data points as meaningful evidence of economic cooling as
they fight to bring inflation back down to
2%. That determination will dictate the forward path of
monetary policy, which at a minimum could stay tighter for
longer than the market expects."
I'll add that S&P500 forward earnings estimates lowered for the week to 227.4.
It had bottomed in early February around 226 and had been trending higher (hit 230.7 March 31st).
Markets been rather positive this week so far as my port is up
So, wondering if it's bad news is good news thinking by the market?
Meanwhile, I'm currently at 55% cash equivalents and just waiting patiently...
I try to read it each week and rely on it for the forward S&P500 P/E
which allows me to calculate forward earnings estimates.
Here is link to the site: JPM Market Recap
Anyhow, this week commentary was interesting.
Here is what they wrote and published Monday AM:
"Last week, the March ISM manufacturing and services PMIs
provided a timely read on the outlook for growth.
The headline manufacturing reading declined to 46.3, the lowest
reading since May 2020, due to decreases in new orders,
inventories and employment. Meanwhile, the headline services
PMI decreased to 51.2 but remained above the key
level of 50, with new orders, business activity and prices
seeing notable declines. Switching to the labor market,
according to the February JOLTS report, job openings fell
6% to 9.9 million but remain well above the pre-pandemic
trend. Furthermore, while total nonfarm quits did increase
3.8% m/m, we have seen a general downward trend in quits
since they peaked in late 2021. Meanwhile, Friday’s
employment report echoed a similar message.
The unemployment rate decreased to 3.5% in March, well below the
long-term average of 6.2%. However, total nonfarm
employment only grew by 236k, a notable deceleration from
the prior month, and wage growth decelerated to 4.2% y/y.
Looking ahead, the question will be whether the Fed interprets
these data points as meaningful evidence of economic cooling as
they fight to bring inflation back down to
2%. That determination will dictate the forward path of
monetary policy, which at a minimum could stay tighter for
longer than the market expects."
I'll add that S&P500 forward earnings estimates lowered for the week to 227.4.
It had bottomed in early February around 226 and had been trending higher (hit 230.7 March 31st).
Markets been rather positive this week so far as my port is up
So, wondering if it's bad news is good news thinking by the market?
Meanwhile, I'm currently at 55% cash equivalents and just waiting patiently...