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Post by uncleharley on Apr 2, 2023 12:48:14 GMT
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Post by fritzo489 on Apr 2, 2023 13:19:22 GMT
uncleharley, Good morning Mister Fantastic : Looks to be an ad for the fools ? Did you check out their top ten picks ? We'll all be sorry 5 years later for not purchasing their ten stocks. Now I'm wondering what there batting average is ? Good investing to All, fritzo489
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 2, 2023 14:44:33 GMT
I find it very interesting to observe the different things that different prople get from the same article. I suppose it all depends on what one is looking for. I have always been more interested in methods than tips, consequently i blew right past any buy recommendations they had.
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Post by yogibearbull on Apr 2, 2023 15:11:07 GMT
Rather than a peak, I am looking at doable SP500 range of 4,300-4,600 for some asset re-allocations. Market strength has been impressive despite some bad news from the Fed, cryptos (feds' operation-choke continues) and several bank failures (the European banks were shaky, but the problems started right here in the US). Moreover, good seasonality is from Nov 1 - Apr 30, poor seasonality from May 1 - October 30. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p85211184311 |
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 2, 2023 15:52:47 GMT
Yes, A new high in the S&P before the summer doldrums set would be a bit much to expect. A pivot in Fed policy would have some unexpected reactions, but that is unlikely. Of course, if one believes in Black Swans, one should not discount an occasional White Swan.
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Post by retiredat48 on Apr 3, 2023 15:17:50 GMT
I struggle with charts that show bear market bottoms compared to recessions confirmed or ending. The article states "No bear market has bottomed prior to the NBER declaring a recession, and most signs appear to point to a high likelihood of a U.S. recession in the not-too-distant future. In other words, there's a reasonable chance the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq have yet to see their bear market lows."
My struggle is, to have a bona-fide recession, it requires two quarters of down GDP. This is more than 6 months since the start of a recession.
Reviewing historical data one can see this laid out. But in forward-going real time stuff, a long delay until a "recession is confirmed." The bottom will already be in.
R48
R48
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Post by richardsok on Apr 3, 2023 16:04:06 GMT
The quote below pretty well sums up my suspicions of market top (and market bottom) predictions:
…..the financial press isn’t in the business of supplying useful information; it’s in the business of feeding people’s lust for predictions. “You keep buying the magazine regardless of how the forecasts turn out,” Wellington says, “and they’ll keep supplying the forecasts.” --Evolution of an Investor (lfadvisors.com)
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 3, 2023 16:07:31 GMT
For my trading purposes I try to focus on the current trend which usually is short term. Projecting things out for several months or years is helpful, but my buy/sell/hold decisions are based primarily on the short term while acknowledging the longer term. Again, jmho.
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Post by Fearchar on Apr 3, 2023 16:36:07 GMT
The quote below pretty well sums up my suspicions of market top (and market bottom) predictions: …..the financial press isn’t in the business of supplying useful information; it’s in the business of feeding people’s lust for predictions. “You keep buying the magazine regardless of how the forecasts turn out,” Wellington says, “and they’ll keep supplying the forecasts.” --Evolution of an Investor (lfadvisors.com) I find that is especially true of the mainstream media. They also present balanced views. So, no matter what they have both bull and bear cases covered |
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 3, 2023 17:40:57 GMT
The quote below pretty well sums up my suspicions of market top (and market bottom) predictions: …..the financial press isn’t in the business of supplying useful information; it’s in the business of feeding people’s lust for predictions. “You keep buying the magazine regardless of how the forecasts turn out,” Wellington says, “and they’ll keep supplying the forecasts.” --Evolution of an Investor (lfadvisors.com) That is why I read my charts more than the pundits. |
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Post by rhythmmethod on Apr 3, 2023 18:30:29 GMT
Yes. Or one keeps their allocation/income/risk in alignment with their personal tolerance/needs and tweaks around the edges on what the market actually does instead of the financial press or charting predictions. Granted rather unsophisticated but works for me. Good luck either way.
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Post by FD1000 on Apr 3, 2023 22:24:03 GMT
The quote below pretty well sums up my suspicions of market top (and market bottom) predictions: …..the financial press isn’t in the business of supplying useful information; it’s in the business of feeding people’s lust for predictions. “You keep buying the magazine regardless of how the forecasts turn out,” Wellington says, “and they’ll keep supplying the forecasts.” --Evolution of an Investor (lfadvisors.com) The press usually quote the "experts" predictions. I don't have a problem with the press, I have a problem with the "experts" The press just want you to click and read their 95+% useless info. |
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Post by steadyeddy on Apr 3, 2023 23:53:14 GMT
Yes. Or one keeps their allocation/income/risk in alignment with their personal tolerance/needs and tweaks around the edges on what the market actually does instead of the financial press or charting predictions. Granted rather unsophisticated but works for me. Good luck either way. , I keep bulk of my portfolio untouched. Just tweaking the edges... sometimes more towards equities and sometimes more towards bonds/cash. These days, with cash instruments paying respectable yield, I am not in a hurry to buy every dip in the equities even with the "tweaking money." Bulls and bears fight it out everyday, but I am standing still. |
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Post by Broozer on Apr 4, 2023 4:17:04 GMT
Yes, A new high in the S&P before the summer doldrums set would be a bit much to expect. A pivot in Fed policy would have some unexpected reactions, but that is unlikely. Of course, if one believes in Black Swans, one should not discount an occasional White Swan. So, to boil it down, the stock market may go up . . . or it may go down.  |
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Post by habsui on Apr 4, 2023 7:02:38 GMT
Yes, A new high in the S&P before the summer doldrums set would be a bit much to expect. A pivot in Fed policy would have some unexpected reactions, but that is unlikely. Of course, if one believes in Black Swans, one should not discount an occasional White Swan. So, to boil it down, the stock market may go up . . . or it may go down. ... and sometimes it rains. |
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Post by mnfish on Apr 6, 2023 12:50:20 GMT
From Wells -
-S&P has rallied for 3 weeks and may be headed for the years high (4300?)
-Recommend not chasing it any higher but wait for a pullback (36-3800)
-Tighter credit, more impact to come from higher rates, banking turmoil and a moderate recession later this year
-Favor US vs Intl, Large/Mid cap vs Small cap, Favorable sectors Energy, Healthcare and Tech
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 6, 2023 13:09:36 GMT
So, to boil it down, the stock market may go up . . . or it may go down. ... and sometimes it rains. Broozer, The market indexes also goes sideways for extended periods of time. |
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