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Post by Fearchar on Mar 23, 2023 0:06:29 GMT
Here's a link to a podcast by Mike Wilson; Chief Strategist for MS. He reviews the response to the banking crisis and impact on inflation. Also points our that a credit crunch is likely and that the equity markets are likely a few months away from lower prices. Mike Wilson MS
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Post by steadyeddy on Mar 23, 2023 3:06:07 GMT
The question is how much lower on equities?
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 23, 2023 3:12:02 GMT
Just for info Mike Wilson has been wrong many times. He is mostly a bear since the end of 2018. Dec 31 2018: Wilson 2019 predictions( link): S&P 500 (^GSPC) Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief equity strategist, thinks stocks will continue struggling next year. Essentially going sideways. Reality: SP500 was up 31.5%. APR 26 2021( link): Time is ticking on a 10-20% market correction in the next 3 months. June 8th 2021( link): There will be a 10% correction in the S&P 500 by the end of 2021. JUL 19 2021 ( link): Morgan Stanley says a 10% to 20% correction is ahead Aug. 17, 2021,( link): Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said the S&P 500 could drop over 10% before the end of the year. Nov 1, 2021 ( link) "Mike Wilson sees growing odds of a 10% to 20% correction this quarter" Dec 7 2021 ( link) "I don't think we are out of the woods". Reality: Wilson predicted at least 6 times for a correction. The SP500 made 28.7% in 2021 with no 10-20% correction.
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Post by archer on Mar 23, 2023 4:21:50 GMT
I wonder, is MS buying or selling. I keep seeing bearish headlines from MS, at the same time Tom Bowley keeps reporting of institutional investment managers loading up.
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Post by Fearchar on Mar 23, 2023 9:36:00 GMT
steadyeddy, Somewhere he says the equity premium needs to be about 400 points higher. He doesn't define it, but suspect he means the forward S&P earnings yield vs the 10 Treasury. So, there's a way to go before he's ready to commit to a strategic purchase.
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Post by Fearchar on Mar 23, 2023 9:45:58 GMT
FD1000, Thank-you for the research and links. Agree, his 2018 call was bad. However, considering the correction in 2022, his November & December 2021 calls look pretty good to me. Of course even stopped clocks are correct twice a day!!! So, I'll give him 3 Stars: ***1 star for having a public record 1 star for being employed by Major Firm as a strategist 1 star for being essentially correct in Nov/Dec 2021
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Post by Fearchar on Mar 23, 2023 9:50:53 GMT
archer , Morgan Stanley has trillions of dollars invested: Total $1.31Trillion in 2022 of which $101Billion is in equity. They are tactically buying and selling on the margins all the time. He also occasionally makes tactical calls. Those would be shorter term though and change direction quickly. His job deals with the major strategic, multi billion dollar types of buys/sells.
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Post by Norbert on Mar 23, 2023 10:31:41 GMT
Just for info Mike Wilson has been wrong many times. He is mostly a bear since the end of 2018. Dec 31 2018: Wilson 2019 predictions( link): S&P 500 (^GSPC) Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief equity strategist, thinks stocks will continue struggling next year. Essentially going sideways. Reality: SP500 was up 31.5%. APR 26 2021( link): Time is ticking on a 10-20% market correction in the next 3 months. June 8th 2021( link): There will be a 10% correction in the S&P 500 by the end of 2021. JUL 19 2021 ( link): Morgan Stanley says a 10% to 20% correction is ahead Aug. 17, 2021,( link): Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said the S&P 500 could drop over 10% before the end of the year. Nov 1, 2021 ( link) "Mike Wilson sees growing odds of a 10% to 20% correction this quarter" Dec 7 2021 ( link) "I don't think we are out of the woods". Reality: Wilson predicted at least 6 times for a correction. The SP500 made 28.7% in 2021 with no 10-20% correction.
OK, he's been wrong many times. So has everyone. What's Wilson saying now? Why is he wrong / right?
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Post by mnfish on Mar 23, 2023 11:30:43 GMT
Mike Wilson - "We've been waiting patiently for this acknowledgment because with it comes the real buying opportunity, which remains several months away."
It's basically the same message that Wells Advisors has been saying since last year.
Obviously, it's harder to predict rather than look backwards.
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 23, 2023 12:03:41 GMT
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Post by win1177 on Mar 23, 2023 12:44:43 GMT
Market watch has a similar “bearish” article (having trouble posting link on my IPad), stating we are close to peak yield curve inversion and the market will perform poorly in the near to middle term. Says we have a rough road ahead for S&P 500, drawing paralleles to some of the bad drawdowns in the past (2007, 1973 oil crisis, 2000, etc.). Time will tell, but I am being cautious. Will continue to “slowly” add to bond positions, mainly muni funds in taxable accounts. Win
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Post by Fearchar on Mar 23, 2023 12:47:47 GMT
101/1310 = 8%
So, that is not much equity exposure!
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 23, 2023 13:01:42 GMT
Market watch has a similar “bearish” article (having trouble posting link on my IPad), stating we are close to peak yield curve inversion and the market will perform poorly in the near to middle term. Says we have a rough road ahead for S&P 500, drawing paralleles to some of the bad drawdowns in the past (2007, 1973 oil crisis, 2000, etc.). Time will tell, but I am being cautious. Will continue to “slowly” add to bond positions, mainly muni funds in taxable accounts.
Win With the above view, you can easily replace Wilson. As long as the Fed is raising rates (or we can see the end of raises), market are nervous, AKA "don't fight the FED"
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Post by Fearchar on Mar 23, 2023 13:55:18 GMT
Market watch has a similar “bearish” article (having trouble posting link on my IPad), stating we are close to peak yield curve inversion and the market will perform poorly in the near to middle term. Says we have a rough road ahead for S&P 500, drawing paralleles to some of the bad drawdowns in the past (2007, 1973 oil crisis, 2000, etc.). Time will tell, but I am being cautious. Will continue to “slowly” add to bond positions, mainly muni funds in taxable accounts.
Win With the above view, you can easily replace Wilson. As long as the Fed is raising rates (or we can see the end of raises), market are nervous, AKA "don't fight the FED" The FED has stopped using the word "raising". Now, it is "forming" policy. Markets thinks they will be cutting soon, but not a single commissioner has said so. Instead, they are talking that no changes are coming. That is a "Firm" policy. .... maybe 1 commissioner is still talking about raising. So, Huge disconnect between FED and markets.
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Post by steadyeddy on Mar 24, 2023 11:32:25 GMT
Duetsche Bank and UBS shares are being taken to the woodshed. When their shares drop adequately further, the ECB and FOMC will start singing a different tune.
The only way to salvage the long bond portfolios banks are holding (and stop the bleeding) is.... drumroll... cutting interest rates.
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Post by yakers on Mar 24, 2023 16:06:23 GMT
Duetsche Bank and UBS shares are being taken to the woodshed. When their shares drop adequately further, the ECB and FOMC will start singing a different tune. The only way to salvage the long bond portfolios banks are holding (and stop the bleeding) is.... drumroll... cutting interest rates. Or the central bank lends to banks @100% of the held to maturity price of long term bonds
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