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Post by Fearchar on Mar 20, 2023 23:54:49 GMT
www.rosenbergresearch.com/about/I caught an interview of David Rosenberg. He's an economist that is in tune with the needs of investors. The following table was produced illustrating the amount of time from the FED Pause to following S&P low. Likewise, the time from 1st FED cut to the S&P low.  So, appears that considerable patience will probably be needed. He's not expecting a repeat of 2008, but even if that set were thrown out, there is still the possibility that this could be very protracted.
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Post by Fearchar on Mar 22, 2023 18:38:58 GMT
Instead of ongoing rate increases, we now have the following language to ponder:
"The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2% over time."
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Post by anovice on Mar 23, 2023 11:28:29 GMT
Instead of ongoing rate increases, we now have the following language to ponder: "The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2% over time." I wonder when the Fed will give up on the 2% number. |
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Post by Chahta on Mar 23, 2023 12:04:10 GMT
Let’s hope they don’t give up 2%. Does anyone think 4% would be OK? It will be painful living with inflation that is too high.
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Post by steelpony10 on Mar 23, 2023 12:16:16 GMT
Fearchar , The Fed means we’re going to keep on cranking up until the non investing class can benefit from price controls, 2% apparently. Posters like us and the even more well off are part of the cause for inflationary periods. All that Covid money and 13%+ in SS raises over the last 3 years. I might have only 10-15 years to live so I’m going to party down with the twins because I can. That’s a long way from when I did shift work and ate the least green food from vending machines at 2 a.m.
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Post by Chahta on Mar 23, 2023 13:14:04 GMT
Fearchar , The Fed means we’re going to keep on cranking up until the non investing class can benefit from price controls, 2% apparently. Posters like us and the even more well off are part of the cause for inflationary periods. All that Covid money and 13%+ in SS raises over the last 3 years. I might have only 10-15 years to live so I’m going to party down with the twins because I can. That’s a long way from when I did shift work and ate the least green food from vending machines at 2 a.m. I’m assuming this is in jest. I (we) had nothing to do with inflation. That is a condition brought on by over spending government and poor management of debt. SS increases were in reaction due to the over spending and stimulus caused by “them”. The clueless act of turning on a printing press to make more increasingly worthless bills is pathetic at best. Telling us “fools” inflation was caused by anything else is typical political pandering and delusion. 😀 |
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Post by mozart522 on Mar 23, 2023 13:36:24 GMT
Fearchar , The Fed means we’re going to keep on cranking up until the non investing class can benefit from price controls, 2% apparently. Posters like us and the even more well off are part of the cause for inflationary periods. All that Covid money and 13%+ in SS raises over the last 3 years. I might have only 10-15 years to live so I’m going to party down with the twins because I can. That’s a long way from when I did shift work and ate the least green food from vending machines at 2 a.m. I’m assuming this is in jest. I (we) had nothing to do with inflation. That is a condition brought on by over spending government and poor management of debt. SS increases were in reaction due to the over spending and stimulus caused by “them”. The clueless act of turning on a printing press to make more increasingly worthless bills is pathetic at best. Telling us “fools” inflation was caused by anything else is typical political pandering and delusion. 😀 I think the point was that we were the one who mainly benefitted from all that money and we spent it. With the lack of goods due to covid, we had the "too much money chasing too few goods" Poor people were just trying to feed themselves. Sort of like blaming the gun instead of the person shooting it. |
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Post by steelpony10 on Mar 23, 2023 17:10:52 GMT
Chahta, Well I think there’s one pretty blameless party that’s all. Didn’t mean to make a political statement. The Fed needs to choke off consumers which is just barely starting in my opinion. The biggest consumers.have the most money. I’m one of those to blame and not complaining really. The longer this goes on the the more I make and benefit.
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Post by Chahta on Mar 23, 2023 17:53:59 GMT
Chahta , Well I think there’s one pretty blameless party that’s all. Didn’t mean to make a political statement. The Fed needs to choke off consumers which is just barely starting in my opinion. The biggest consumers.have the most money. I’m one of those to blame and not complaining really. The longer this goes on the the more I make and benefit. There is no blameless party. It is one government that taxes and spends period. I don't think it is Ferraris and yachts that create inflation either. |
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Post by Fearchar on Mar 23, 2023 19:05:39 GMT
An observation about Mr. Rosenberg's data....
He left out the FED hike and cuts from 2016 thru 2019-2020.
No recession that time!
Market Bottomed out in Dec 2018.
That was near to the last hike.
Which means it was before the pause too.
Maybe I should apply for a Chief Strategist job.
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Post by steelpony10 on Mar 23, 2023 19:27:32 GMT
An observation about Mr. Rosenberg's data.... He left out the FED hike and cuts from 2016 thru 2019-2020. No recession that time! Market Bottomed out in Dec 2018. That was near to the last hike. Which means it was before the pause too. Maybe I should apply for a Chief Strategist job. Keep your hopes up, it could turn out that way. 🤞🏼 I don’t think whole pictures are ever presented. It’s a tough job. In Canada, a socialist country where the government spends all those taxes, the inflation rate is projected to be around 3% at the end of the year. It’s 10%+ in England right now. I think it may be the consumer culture and how those taxes are actually spent (think national defense). My understanding from the past anyway the US. consumer was responsible for 70% of inflation. I was a tax volunteer for AARP and even after the Republican tax reforms medical, food, utilities and gasoline prices etc. hits people or families with incomes under 40-50k at this point really hard, retirees much worse. They spend a larger percentage of their net income on just survival. Consumerism may increase as discretionary income increases. The more highly educated and investing classes for example. Never forget the large affect of the underground economy, exchange of cash or services with no paper trail. Another stress on lower income individuals and families. |
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Post by Fearchar on Mar 23, 2023 20:32:51 GMT
[quote source="/post/34851/thread" In Canada, a socialist country where the government spends all those taxes, the inflation rate is projected to be around 3% at the end of the year. All Governments have the capacity to be responsible or not. Socialism should be evaluated along with a thousand other measures of a country. On balance, Canada impresses me as a pretty cool country. |
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Post by Chahta on Mar 24, 2023 15:06:34 GMT
[quote source="/post/34851/thread" In Canada, a socialist country where the government spends all those taxes, the inflation rate is projected to be around 3% at the end of the year. All Governments have the capacity to be responsible or not. Socialism should be evaluated along with a thousand other measures of a country. On balance, Canada impresses me as a pretty cool country. No thanks. |
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