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Post by Norbert on Mar 18, 2023 12:21:25 GMT
Read here: tradingeconomics.com/spx:ind"Looking back, over the last four weeks, US500 lost 3.98 percent. Over the last 12 months, its price fell by 12.24 percent. Looking ahead, we forecast United States Stock Market Index (US500) to be priced at 3,738.41 by the end of this quarter and at 3,391.93 in one year, according to Trading Economics global macro models projections and analysts expectations." Valuations aren't cheap, the Fed continues to withdraw liquidity, and the ramifications of the debt overhang will take time to resolve. Meanwhile, all sides are digging in their heels in Ukraine; and China might be getting involved. A trend channel analysis of the S&P 500 suggests that the forecast is reasonable. Do you agree or disagree?  |
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 18, 2023 12:35:09 GMT
It might be too early to draw any conclusions from that chart pattern. It already is showing a series of higher lows and "IF" the current ralley goes above last months high we then have a shorter term trend that should challenge the previous high. My decisive opinions are currently stalled out.
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Post by mnfish on Mar 18, 2023 13:03:25 GMT
"This is a global phenomenon. We may not be at the height of the pandemic, but there are more container vessels sitting idle around the world today than at any time since it began," Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka said on Friday.
Something like that statement would tell me those predictions and chart are correct.
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 18, 2023 13:57:37 GMT
After the mania of 1996-2000 of over 20% annually, the SP500 lost 10% in 10 years during 2000-2010. We had another 11 year of mania during 2010-2021. We may have another low performance from 2022 for several years. I see only 2 solutions for advanced investors, yes, you can guess it. More trading and/or use concentrated portfolio with leading wide range indexes. An easier option can be great flexible managers, AKA PRWCX for a big % of your portfolio. Attachments:
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Post by Fearchar on Mar 18, 2023 14:31:51 GMT
FD,
From the chart, PRWCX was practically indinistingble from the S&P over the last year. I have not looked at the fundamentals, so do not see a reason for that fund to out perform by a significant amount.
What am I missing?
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Post by Fearchar on Mar 18, 2023 14:34:52 GMT
Yes, in general equities should be under weight. |
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Post by FD1000 on Mar 18, 2023 16:32:57 GMT
FD, From the chart, PRWCX was practically indinistingble from the S&P over the last year. I have not looked at the fundamentals, so do not see a reason for that fund to out perform by a significant amount. What am I missing? I'm surprised you don't know PRWCX. It is a flexible allocation fund, usually about 60-65% stocks. It's probably the best allocation when you look at all 3-5-10-15 years ranked at 3-1-1-1 accordingly. This is a good time for this type of funds. It's difficult to beat the indexes when volatility is lower + performance is higher as we had in 2010-2020/2021. If you don't know PRWCX well, you missed one of the best funds of all times and it did it when data is available a lot more compared to the 80s. See PV ( link) since 2000. It's part of my system to find great risk/reward funds. During 2000-2010, I held SGIIX,OAKBX,FAIRX at 20% each about 8-10 years while traded the rest. See PV( link). |
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