CME Fed Watch Tool

[Fearchar]

Here's a link: www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

I've got a tricked out spreadsheet that I use to help visualize:




Consensus (>50%) for rates to be elevated the rest of this year starting with the March 22, 2023 meeting.
>50% consensus continues thru the June meeting with 550-575 range above 50%.

When I average the ranges over time, the highest value is at the July 26,2023 meeting with 5.68% average.

All of this is of course subject to change without notice or warning.

[Fearchar]

Some thing appears to be very wrong with the CME FED watch tool.
So, no update.

[yogibearbull]

It's quite jumpy after the September FOMC meeting. Fed fund futures were confused by several cross-currents. It may take a business day or two for the CME FedWatch to stabilize.

[Fearchar]

CME FED Watch site has stabilized.
Attached chart was constructed with recent data, which of course is subject to rapid unpredictable changes.
So, for what it's worth, here is the current picture.



Basically, futures market consensus is in for a 0.25% hike next week and another in May.
After that, the consensus is for a cut back to current levels or even lower!

This is not logical...  Why would the FED ever make 2 hikes in a row and then immediately follow those with a greater cut? 
It would make far more sense for the FED to simply pause in May and then cut in June.

Either way, market consensus is that a nearer term pivot is on and rates will not be held higher for longer.