|
|
Post by bobfl on Feb 2, 2023 12:07:54 GMT
I listened to Powell very carefully. I heard that rates will stay up through 2023.
The market futures immediately priced in a pivot towards year end.
|
|
|
|
Post by steadyeddy on Feb 2, 2023 12:37:26 GMT
He also hinted that this is all still a crapshoot. His words that "disinflationary process has started," to me are the key words in the entire banter. Also, another hint that couple of more rises before pause.
I am worried about the animal spirits in the market, though.
|
|
|
|
Post by bobfl on Feb 2, 2023 12:57:59 GMT
I am worried about the animal spirits in the market, though. I feel like giving up for a while. My portfolio has risen every day (but one day - Jan 25) since the first of the year, just like August of last year, because of the animal spirits. Then when the market woke up my portfolio dropped to no gain last year. So don't know if this will be a repeat. There were times that I looked at my portfolio only once a year for IRA RMD. Sure would like to get back to that. |
|
|
|
Post by mnfish on Feb 2, 2023 13:36:14 GMT
He also hinted that this is all still a crapshoot. His words that "disinflationary process has started," to me are the key words in the entire banter. Also, another hint that couple of more rises before pause. I am worried about the animal spirits in the market, though. “We can now say I think for the first time that the disinflationary process has started,” Powell said, while also noting that it would be “very premature to declare victory or to think we really got this.”I'm not so sure they've "really got this" on anything so far. They certainly missed the "transitory" inflation call and have raised rates faster than ever and inflation is still 6.5% YOY. |
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Feb 2, 2023 13:56:07 GMT
I think Powell was only trying to say things as they are. If inflation is down (we know December was down) and down for January, the disinflationary process has started. In fact a financial newsletter I read says: "The disinflation trend that has been evident since July 2022". There is nothing wrong with leaving interest rates up for a year. Hopefully they will never go back to zero. One thing for sure is if I was not all in the end of 2022, I would have missed January. There will always be something to worry about.
Of course it is premature to declare victory. That is common sense. We will see how things unfold in 2023. The S&P500 did a good thing yesterday.
|
|
|
|
Post by bobfl on Feb 2, 2023 16:57:36 GMT
Want to hear a joke?
At this moment, I am 15.02% up for the year. Same as the peak in August last year.
Then last year it dropped to zero gain at the end of last year. There is no joy in a volatile market. No parties; no celebration, just nervousness.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Feb 2, 2023 17:46:27 GMT
Want to hear a joke? At this moment, I am 15.02% up for the year. Same as the peak in August last year. Then last year it dropped to zero gain at the end of last year. There is no joy in a volatile market. No parties; no celebration, just nervousness. But at least I will feel good for a while. I am sure we will see a correction early on but I think it will continue up. Evidently the year after midterms the market is normally up 15%. |
|
|
|
Post by bobfl on Feb 2, 2023 20:18:13 GMT
Want to hear a joke? At this moment, I am 15.02% up for the year. Same as the peak in August last year. Then last year it dropped to zero gain at the end of last year. There is no joy in a volatile market. No parties; no celebration, just nervousness. But at least I will feel good for a while. I am sure we will see a correction early on but I think it will continue up. Evidently the year after midterms the market is up 15%. Actually I should not be so negative. The fact that my stuff hit this mark twice (August and now), is a good sign of where things might end up. |
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Feb 2, 2023 20:52:58 GMT
Powell is a plain talking guy. When he answers a question he doesn’t parse words. And he is eager to answer plain speaking and fully. Inflation has not decreased in some sectors and it needs to do so for the Fed to be convinced.
|
|
|
|
Post by marpro on Feb 2, 2023 21:03:25 GMT
But at least I will feel good for a while. I am sure we will see a correction early on but I think it will continue up. Evidently the year after midterms the market is up 15%. Actually I should not be so negative. The fact that my stuff hit this mark twice (August and now), is a good sign of where things might end up. I shifted 5% of my portfolio from defensive and income to middle ground – large cap, SCHX today. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2023 21:37:26 GMT
I made several changes both yesterday and today. Mainly with CEFs, and added FMSDX to a second brokerage account.
|
|
|
|
Post by steelpony10 on Feb 2, 2023 21:44:24 GMT
Anyone familiar with the term “irrational exuberance”?
|
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Feb 2, 2023 21:51:04 GMT
Anyone familiar with the term “irrational exuberance”? Give a group a break......we need to have a little happiness after 2022. I know you are rolling in cash coming in but let the TR guys have some fun too. I don't think it is all undue. There are plenty that think this will be a decent year. After all the year following a mid-term election is normally up 15%. Yes will correct from this fast start but my belief is this will be a good year. I am quite sure you will love to see your CEF NAVs keep climbing. |
|
|
|
Post by steelpony10 on Feb 2, 2023 22:11:07 GMT
Chahta , Lol. Maybe a mini bubble. Is it actionable news? It ain’t real TR until you take some gains and it’s too much to fit into all your pockets. Otherwise the bubble becomes a burp. Well every year is 50/50. Someone always “thinks” right. My hope for all TR investors is every year plays out like the Hallmark channel. Hey after 45 years now I have TR I just don’t need it yet or ever which was my goal.
|
|
|
|
Post by rhythmmethod on Feb 2, 2023 22:30:23 GMT
Chahta , Lol. Maybe a mini bubble. Is it actionable news? It ain’t real TR until you take some gains and it’s too much to fit into all your pockets. Otherwise the bubble becomes a burp. Well every year is 50/50. Someone always “thinks” right. My hope for all TR investors is every year plays out like the Hallmark channel. I largely agree with the ponyman. Last year even though my portfolio was TR down >10%, I increased my income by over 25%. Now I've made up the TR difference. I trimmed a little today, but having income over needs takes much of the drama out of daily changes. The only constant is change; I like the spare change I can spend! Good luck out there. |
|
|
|
Post by steelpony10 on Feb 2, 2023 22:34:19 GMT
rhythmmethod , Cast away your crutches and scream Hallelujah! You have seen the light!
|
|
|
|
Post by marpro on Feb 2, 2023 22:54:55 GMT
rhythmmethod , Cast away your crutches and scream Hallelujah! You have seen the light! I have not given up my income goal. I just made the move using the distributions for this month and moving the newly acquired equities a little. My biggie is still VTI, which I never cashed, with a large CG. Who wants to pay big tax on that?
|
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Feb 2, 2023 23:02:56 GMT
Chahta , Lol. Maybe a mini bubble. Is it actionable news? It ain’t real TR until you take some gains and it’s too much to fit into all your pockets. Otherwise the bubble becomes a burp. Well every year is 50/50. Someone always “thinks” right. My hope for all TR investors is every year plays out like the Hallmark channel. I largely agree with the ponyman. Last year even though my portfolio was TR down >10%, I increased my income by over 25%. Now I've made up the TR difference. I trimmed a little today, but having income over needs takes much of the drama out of daily changes. The only constant is change; I like the spare change I can spend! Good luck out there. Ha! How about that PTY YTD! |
|
|
|
Post by steelpony10 on Feb 3, 2023 2:16:47 GMT
marpro , We hold VTI also. If it grows in value it could be our largest holding some day. For us VTI is basically for LTC if ever needed. Money would be flying out the window in every direction with few options available.
|
|
|
|
Post by bobfl on Feb 3, 2023 12:43:02 GMT
Last year even though my portfolio was TR down >10%, I increased my income by over 25%. Now I've made up the TR difference. Glad to see your post. I reflected on my increase for this year. What can I do with it? Nothing! Not going to cash out. It could also vanish again. So I concluded, like you, it is not this year that is important but last year. I did exactly what you appear to have done. I ended at "zero change" for the year, but as an example, I sold out at $25 per share. Then I bought back at roughly $17.50 per share. That means two things, more shares, more income. And naturally the price will rise, this year and next. But does the price increase mean anything, no. Since I am interested in income only, the portfolio value is not important. That is for the uncaring in-laws who will inherit it. I told my wife for years, "Don't look at the portfolio value, look at the income." Now that I adjusted my perspective this morning, I won't stress about the market. |
|
|
|
Post by steadyeddy on Feb 3, 2023 12:50:05 GMT
Last year even though my portfolio was TR down >10%, I increased my income by over 25%. Now I've made up the TR difference. I reflected on my increase for this year. What can I do with it? Nothing! Not going to cash out. It could also vanish again. So I concluded, like you, it is not this year that is important but last year. I did exactly what you appear to have done. I ended at "zero change" for the year, but as an example, I sold out at $25 per share. Then I bought back at roughly $17.50 per share. That means two things, more shares, more income. And naturally the price will rise, this year and next. But does the price increase mean anything, no. Since I am interested in income only, the portfolio value is not important. That is for the uncaring in-laws who will inherit it. I told my wife for years, "Don't look at the portfolio value, look at the income." Now that I adjusted my perspective this morning, I won't stress about the market. , I am almost there with you! Except, in tax advantaged accounts, I do not allow gains to vanish; I may sell early (in terms of capturing gains) but will not hold positions if they are likely to become losers. In taxable accounts, a different story: I am more inclined to hold positions that have losses if they generate commensurate income. There is always uncle sam to the rescue with TLH. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 3, 2023 13:38:44 GMT
My goal is income with good total return. I find it easier to hold income producers during periods of market volatility and better for the bottom line. Interest rates are the key, and hopefully Powell will deliver what the economy and investments depend on.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Feb 3, 2023 14:00:51 GMT
My goal is income with good total return. I find it easier to hold income producers during periods of market volatility and better for the bottom line. Interest rates are the key, and hopefully Powell will deliver what the economy and investments depend on. I do not take much income currently but I make decent (SS+income = old base salary) and have plenty of TR untouched as well. I could tilt towards income but then take less TR. It's a balance to me. In my last breath if I had $10 I would be at peace. |
|
|
|
Post by steelpony10 on Feb 3, 2023 15:06:33 GMT
Chahta , Hey Mighty Thor congrats. My my check out those stars. Staying with the theme of the OP, I’d like to become one with the cosmos leaving an empty and broken glass.
|
|
|
|
Post by bobfl on Feb 3, 2023 19:13:02 GMT
In my last breath if I had $10 I would be at peace. I remember telling that to someone many years ago. Here is a way to help you get down to that $10. :-) We moved to be near the number 1 ranked senior home in our state. They don't pitch you on the street when you need a Hoyer lift because you can't walk, like most places do. I know people who would need Medicaid to get in that place, but they don't have openings for Medicaid people. But after studying their financial statements I found that half their patients were on Medicaid. Then I figured it out. They suck every dime out of you, then, only then, do they put you on Medicaid. So you will need to keep that $10 hidden in a sock. Even our LTHC insurance is not guaranteed. My insurer sent a couple of letters stating if we agree to let them cancel us whenever they want, they will reduce our bill a little. :-) I once asked a senior home if they put a patient out when they need a Hoyer lift. She said no. They call your relative to pick you up. haha |
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Feb 6, 2023 1:15:23 GMT
While there is "can't fight the Fed", there is also "don't fight the tape". link |
|
|
|
Post by marpro on Feb 6, 2023 1:46:27 GMT
While there is "can't fight the Fed", there is also "don't fight the tape". linkHere is the original article from Bloomberg (There could be a paywall. Use FF in Private mode)
|
|
|
|
Post by johntaylor on Mar 11, 2023 17:55:23 GMT
Fayez Sarofim:
“Nervous energy is a great destroyer of wealth.”
|
|
|
|
Post by bobfl on Mar 13, 2023 2:59:25 GMT
Fayez Sarofim: “Nervous energy is a great destroyer of wealth.” Happily buying at the top  and panic (or forced) selling at the bottom is the biggest destroyer of wealth.  |
|
|
|
Post by johntaylor on Mar 13, 2023 16:03:32 GMT
Sarofim, a billionaire, generally sought to keep portfolio turnover below 6 percent. He was an interesting guy, on the Kinder Morgan board for 20 yrs.
|
|
