|
|
Post by anitya on Dec 30, 2022 16:23:24 GMT
That article looks like a long read that I will get back to. I would be interested to know what tasks they used to determine what the professional traders skills where. Meanwhile the stock market indexes are dropping on light volume which normally indicates a fake move. When 2023 finally arrives, it should start out with a bang. That is except my Pimco CEFs, they are dropping on strong volume. , I shall let you finish reading the article over the long weekend. Start with a bang: Lower or higher per your crystal ball? PIMCO CEF NAVs are expected to be lower today but prices are moving in the opposite direction. So, may be the tide has turned for these for your sake - at the least temporarily. Prices front run the NAVs. Happy New Year! |
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Dec 30, 2022 17:44:04 GMT
Most of my thought processes are difficult to follow. Dickoncapecod has been a vocal proponent and successful trader/investor in CEFS for a long time and probably influenced me the most. A pitfall that I see is the specialization. My intention now is to diversify, as opportunities present themselves, into BDCs and REITs. I have no time schedule for making that move. The timing will be dependent on chart patterns that have yet to be developed. A piece of my thought patterns is the discovery of a rule for investing. That rule is "Be on the right side of the market." I see a bull market coming next so I have closed my shorts and gone long. The other piece is that leverage increases returns if risk is managed. CEFS are generally leveraged and I can manage risk by being on the right side of the market. I know I have mentioned Buy & Hold for a strategy, however Buy & Hold has never worked for me, consequently my current intention is to be long on leveraged CEFs, BDCs, & whatever else trips my trigger for the duration of the next turn and bull market. The end of that cycle will see me going net short again depending on health and longevity.
|
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Dec 30, 2022 20:03:03 GMT
That article looks like a long read that I will get back to. I would be interested to know what tasks they used to determine what the professional traders skills where. Meanwhile the stock market indexes are dropping on light volume which normally indicates a fake move. When 2023 finally arrives, it should start out with a bang. That is except my Pimco CEFs, they are dropping on strong volume. , I shall let you finish reading the article over the long weekend. Start with a bang: Lower or higher per your crystal ball? PIMCO CEF NAVs are expected to be lower today but prices are moving in the opposite direction. So, may be the tide has turned for these for your sake - at the least temporarily. Prices front run the NAVs. Happy New Year! The article does not state what it is that the subjects are trading. It does seem to prove that capital gains are most likely achieved by someone who is Sophisticated rather than Educated. However I think it could be argued that an education is necessary to assess the ability of an entity to pay a dividend or repay a loan with interest. There is an open question of how sophistication is achieved by an individual or to what degree can it be achieved without an education. The conclusion is interesting and I am sure that academics would find the experiment and its findings useful. Personally, I think there are many ways to reach ones goals and everyones goals are different. If trading works for you, then you should do it. If it doesn't work for you, then limit your trading. The only investing that I know of that one can do without trading is to buy bonds or C D's and hold them to maturity. 8 Conclusions We have shown that that strategic sophistication, as measured in the Guessing Game (e.g., through level-k theory), is the only significant determinant of professional traders’ profits in a trading game. In contrast, profits are not driven by individual characteristics such as cognitive abilities or behavioral traits. Moreover, higher profits are due to the ability to trade at favorable prices rather than to the ability to forecast the fundamental value, that is, to earn higher dividends. As seen from a theoretical viewpoint, our experimental results suggest that depth of reasoning, as captured by the level-k theory, has a predictive power in how well professional traders trade in financial market. From a different angle, the results indicate that, in the selection of traders, financial companies may want to look at the candidate’s strategic sophistication, rather than at their cognitive or non-cognitive abilities or other individual traits. |
|
|
|
Post by retiredat48 on Jan 1, 2023 16:31:35 GMT
uncleharley ,...and richardsok, et al...how about also start year 2023 with a speculative trade... MJ, marijuana company ETF. Has a great chart pattern, a low four handle (down from thirties), and if this is the bottom time, a great head-and-shoulders developing with previous low. Have a good year... R48
|
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Jan 1, 2023 17:55:08 GMT
Is this to be a real trade with real money or is it a make believe sort of contest? If it is to be real, my entire portfolio is speculative. How long do we have to hold the trade or how often can we trade it? Can we use leverage? If so, how much?
|
|
|
|
Post by retiredat48 on Jan 1, 2023 18:13:39 GMT
Is this to be a real trade with real money or is it a make believe sort of contest? If it is to be real, my entire portfolio is speculative. How long do we have to hold the trade or how often can we trade it? Can we use leverage? If so, how much? Buy within your strategic methods...hold same way...whenever you would typically sell. There appears to be a good following of MJ that causes it to zoom upward when in accumulation phase; shorts often on the run. But only lasts for a few weeks to a month. Disclosure: I have owned MJ this year. R48 |
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Jan 1, 2023 18:20:26 GMT
Is this to be a real trade with real money or is it a make believe sort of contest? If it is to be real, my entire portfolio is speculative. How long do we have to hold the trade or how often can we trade it? Can we use leverage? If so, how much? Buy within your strategic methods...hold same way...whenever you would typically sell. There appears to be a good following of MJ that causes it to zoom upward when in accumulation phase; shorts often on the run. But only lasts for a few weeks to a month. Disclosure: I have owned MJ this year. R48 I would go with NUGT but I have not bought it yet. It's leveraged and the USD looks weak, making NUGT look strong. If I have to use something that I currently own I would say that PDO will probably be my best performer. If I have some time to make a decision, like a week or so, I will probably be putting a few bucks into NUGT. |
|
|
|
Post by richardsok on Jan 1, 2023 20:04:08 GMT
R:
I'm already holding two big speculative positions: the first is TBF which I reporting switching over from TLT about a month ago. This is purely according to my DVolT method as outlined in my book. This position I feel in good control of.
The second is my over-allocation in PDI & PDO which we have discussed many times. Against all discipline, I lured myself into these heavily, starting around Thanksgiving, for the special distribution we all saw coming and the boffo coverage numbers they put up all summer and fall. We all expected December tax-loss selling, but nothing like the carnage that actually occurred. I have to see a solid Jan rally now or I'm going to be a seriously unhappy camper. The bigger-than-expected selling has yanked me right back down to -1% for the year.
My third spec is a moderate-sized position in DOG; again purely on technical discipline, but not as large as the other two.
With these three irons in the fire, am not inclined to add any more specs unless I see something else really interesting, which I don't. I am seriously trying to limit my perspectives for 2023. I know in the past I have too easily become interested in the "hot fund du jour", spreading my attention too widely, too thinly. Am trying to focus and specialize with discipline for 2023. Might take new positions in NML, VZ, TWOpA or PSF -- but those would be for the income, not as trade vehicles. If the Pimco CEFs firm, I might add for long term income
I don't share your interest in MJ. I know you've been watching and owning it for some time now, and, yes, it has certainly fallen far enough that a rally could be plausible at current levels. Longer term it is hard to see how any coterie of legitimate companies could thrive when they are competing with bootleggers and cross-border importers who pay no tax and can undercut retail price at will -- not to mention no storefront costs or labor laws to heed. My technicals have been warbling "avoid" for months now -- and I have avoided.
I like gold, in theory, but it seems trendless right now. GGN is a possibility for new money but mostly for the income..
With what I see on the table right now, any speculations this bozo might do at present would be to just add to TBF or DOG or maybe short a bit of AOM.... but (again!) those depend purely on my technicals. Additions to Pimco would depend on real support and restored coverage numbers.
|
|
