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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2022 23:24:25 GMT
I have been simplifying my retirement portfolio. I have 10 years to retirement, assuming I keep getting work.
Currently it is 60% stock and 40% (cash and short term bonds)
Current holdings
1. BRKB (Berkshire Hathway B shares)- 14% 2. Vanguard Wellington - 14% 3 PRBLX (Parnassus Core Equity Fund) - 12% 4. VWENDX - Vanguard Windsor - 8% 5. VPCCX (Vanguard PRIMECAP Core Fund) - 3% 6. SP500 fund - 3% 7. International (VTIAX, IQDG, TIBAX) - 6%
Top 3 (BRKB, Wellington, PRBLX) are long term positions. Rest are new this year.
I sold most of my growth and many small stock positions this year. But will get back into growth soon. I plan to get back to 80% stocks -20% bonds and no cash in 2023
I will be using PyrUP, momentum and quality with low debt to invest in future.
Any recommendations?
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Post by FD1000 on Dec 19, 2022 14:11:48 GMT
Own up to 7 funds, actually 5 should be enough. What is the effect of 2-5% in any fund on your portfolio? By the time, you add bond funds,you will have easily 12-15 funds. Another way is to own 5 core=LT funds, and 2 explore=ST funds. More funds means regression to the mean or worse.
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Post by retiredat48 on Dec 19, 2022 15:29:17 GMT
Yes, definitely use Pyramid Up investing!
Combine it with 100 to 200 day Moving Average controls to ensure buying on uptrends, and not catching falling knives. Like, for any fund you are buying, make at least one bucket buy at a fund price movementup through the 200 day MA...and a second buy point when the SLOPE of the 200 day MA turns upward (skiing uphill!).
Why not plan on tilting more to a "dividend/income" investor for retirement...owning such funds like SCHD? BTW this may bve the top investment performance theme for next five years, also.
And how about a few high yielder (junk bonds)funds? Buy when blood in street...like a recession declared, or some key bankruptcies announced next year. Vanguard's is a very "safe" junk bond fund (low default rate).
Good luck. R48
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 24, 2022 15:40:41 GMT
Anitya, You requested information about my portfolio on another thread. Because others have made similar inquiries and because I have totally changed my portfolio and tactics for the coming year, I will attempt to answer your questions. My changes are made because 2023 will be my 81st year on this planet and because I have a family history of dementia which at some point will diminish the judgement required to trade frequently. The following is a buy & hold portfolio. My hope is to take it to my grave. 100% of my port is in CEF's, more specifically PIMCO CEF's. I chose them because of PIMCOs track record in paying monthly distributions. I have no interest in sector, industry, or geographic diversity. My only interest is to get paid. The CEFS I chose are PDI, PDO, & PFN. The % of each investment was determined by the amount of cash I had when I bought them. About 12% of the total is in a leveraged, taxable account. The balance is in an IRA. The leveraged account has a fee of about 1% for the interest on the leverage. The resulting return of that account is about 20% annually before taxes. The IRA earns 13ish% and my RMD is 5% leaving 8% to reinvest as a partial hedge against further inflation.
EDIT; I expect those returns regardless of market conditions.
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Post by retiredat48 on Dec 24, 2022 16:05:32 GMT
uncleharley,...wow, a big thanks for sharing. I'm sending your post to my daughter/son-in-law; been encouraging them to invest in the same CEFs. Interestingly, your portfolio will be quite concentrated. I have chosen to diversify some in the fixed income space, by also owning things such as Preferred share funds (leveraged and not); junk bond funds, unleveraged; treasury bond funds...plan to own some corporates next year. My sister's husband (age 81) had a mother with dementia. All four of his siblings had dementia in their eighties...and he has now entered that category. Best wishes with the medical stuff. R48
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Post by fred495 on Dec 24, 2022 16:12:53 GMT
Well, thank you very much, uncleharly, for being so forthcoming and open about your portfolio holdings. You are one of my favorite posters and sharing your personal data is highly unusual but much appreciated. I wish you good luck and continued success in pursuing your plans for the future.
Hope you stay well,
Fred
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Post by archer on Dec 24, 2022 16:41:49 GMT
uncleharley, Darn it! My new years resolution was to pay close attention to your posts on the Buys and Sells thread and copy. Now I see you are moving to B&H. Just the same I appreciate your post and have been considering increasing my CEF holdings with Pimco as I think aside from divs their TR will be looking good for the future.
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 24, 2022 16:46:33 GMT
uncleharley , Darn it! My new years resolution was to pay close attention to your posts on the Buys and Sells thread and copy. Now I see you are moving to B&H. Just the same I appreciate your post and have been considering increasing my CEF holdings with Pimco as I think aside from divs their TR will be looking good for the future. A part of the motivation to do the post was to discourage lurkers and anyone else from following my reported actions. I would much prefer that everyone find their own path and follow it. ,,,, then I can learn something. LOL.
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Post by anitya on Dec 24, 2022 19:16:39 GMT
Anitya, You requested information about my portfolio on another thread. Because others have made similar inquiries and because I have totally changed my portfolio and tactics for the coming year, I will attempt to answer your questions. My changes are made because 2023 will be my 81st year on this planet and because I have a family history of dementia which at some point will diminish the judgement required to trade frequently. The following is a buy & hold portfolio. My hope is to take it to my grave. 100% of my port is in CEF's, more specifically PIMCO CEF's. I chose them because of PIMCOs track record in paying monthly distributions. I have no interest in sector, industry, or geographic diversity. My only interest is to get paid. The CEFS I chose are PDI, PDO, & PFN. The % of each investment was determined by the amount of cash I had when I bought them. About 12% of the total is in a leveraged, taxable account. The balance is in an IRA. The leveraged account has a fee of about 1% for the interest on the leverage. The resulting return of that account is about 20% annually before taxes. The IRA earns 13ish% and my RMD is 5% leaving 8% to reinvest as a partial hedge against further inflation. EDIT; I expect those returns regardless of market conditions. Thanks uncleharley for reminding everyone again that context is paramount! I am fairly certain about you skipping dementia. You are 10x sharper than I am and we are a generation apart in age. Do keep us posted at your convenience on how you spend the extra free time from less trading. Whatever you do, I am sure you will keep inspiring others. Thanks for the reply. P. S.: I have invested in PIMCO CEFs for many years and agree that they manage these widgets very well. A
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Post by Deleted on Dec 24, 2022 20:01:47 GMT
uncleharley, Your post is good reading for me. I too will soon be 81 and my 2023 investing thoughts are somewhat similar. It's nice to see a similar plan from someone else. I am at 55% (MM,CD,T-bills), 10% SPLG, 10% SCHD, 10% CDC, 8% PDO and 7% PDI. The CDs are 1 year ladder and T-Bills are 1 year. As CDs mature (soon) I will be buying more PDO and PDI up to 20% each. That will put remaining T-Bills, CDs and MM filling taxable acct. TIRA and Roth will be a mix of the rest. My reason is that my spouse will lose 33% of my income when alone and I'm moderately preserving capital for her. We have not drawn from savings yet but she may need to.
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Post by steadyeddy on Dec 25, 2022 2:04:08 GMT
I feel privileged to be learning from some of the most seasoned investors on this forum.
Thanks to all, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!
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Post by Chahta on Dec 25, 2022 16:18:45 GMT
uncleharley, if I read this right, you are done trading. I have always followed your posts in awe, but could never do what you do. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 25, 2022 16:47:00 GMT
uncleharley , if I read this right, you are done trading. I have always followed your posts in awe, but could never do what you do. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. LOL! If one can change a leopards spots, I may be done trading. That was my intention when I set up the port a few days ago, but a review of how it is set up makes me think that it needs some changes to be trade free. The taxable account that holds PDI and 50% leverage, will likely remain a trading account until I come up with a better idea. PDI has a history of going to an exorbitant premium making it vulnerable to correction. A leveraged security that corrects severely can go into a freefall that most people would want to avoid. The only way to avoid the situation is to trade the security. I am going to leave the account alone for now, but I see some trading down the road.
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Post by anitya on Dec 25, 2022 18:48:58 GMT
uncleharley , I think you mentioned paying 1% margin interest. Is this a private arrangement with the brokerage not available to the general public and which brokerage? Thanks.
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 25, 2022 19:24:25 GMT
uncleharley , I think you mentioned paying 1% margin interest. Is this a private arrangement with the brokerage not available to the general public and which brokerage? Thanks. No. Actually it is the current interest rate that Fido charges on a margin balance. The rate is currently just under a 2% annual rate and is subject to change. At full margin that works out to about 1%. It is available to anyone that has a taxable account at Fidelity.
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Post by anitya on Dec 26, 2022 6:53:12 GMT
uncleharley , I think you mentioned paying 1% margin interest. Is this a private arrangement with the brokerage not available to the general public and which brokerage? Thanks. No. Actually it is the current interest rate that Fido charges on a margin balance. The rate is currently just under a 2% annual rate and is subject to change. At full margin that works out to about 1%. It is available to anyone that has a taxable account at Fidelity. Hi UH, I have a Fido taxable account. And their margin schedule (link below) I could pull up shows the lowest margin interest rate they charge is 8.25%. May be you would not mind replying with a link showing the low rate you are alluding to. To my knowledge, IBKR is the lowest margin interest charger. I do not have an account there but one of my nephew who is a beta trader has one and he was using their margin as much as they would allow him. www.fidelity.com/trading/margin-loans/margin-ratesThanks.
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Post by johnsmith on Dec 26, 2022 7:37:54 GMT
I have known other people at Fidelity who have been able to negotiate a lower margin rate, depending on their assets and amount of borrowings.
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 26, 2022 14:24:52 GMT
Thank You for the link. It has been a while since I checked on the rate that fido charges. Yes, it is a variable rate and apparently they do not notify you when it changes. At 8.5% it still makes sense to use margin to buy something like PDI, but it is not as lucrative as I thought.
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Post by Chahta on Dec 27, 2022 16:11:46 GMT
Thank You for the link. It has been a while since I checked on the rate that fido charges. Yes, it is a variable rate and apparently they do not notify you when it changes. At 8.5% it still makes sense to use margin to buy something like PDI, but it is not as lucrative as I thought. I assumed you got such a good rate (1-2%) was because a wealthy, very successful investor was valuable to Fido.
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 27, 2022 16:25:57 GMT
Thank You for the link. It has been a while since I checked on the rate that fido charges. Yes, it is a variable rate and apparently they do not notify you when it changes. At 8.5% it still makes sense to use margin to buy something like PDI, but it is not as lucrative as I thought. I assumed you got such a good rate (1-2%) was because a wealthy, very successful investor was valuable to Fido. Silly Man!!!! Never make assumptions. LOL!
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Post by rhythmmethod on Dec 27, 2022 16:42:49 GMT
uncleharley, Hey Unc, I suspect you, with a bit of dementia (waaay in the future), is still better than me with mild COVID brain fog. Either way, I find your post interesting and practical. It does seem a bit concentrated, as retiredat48 mentioned. If I was to go your way, I'd also look at JEPI ~ 20% managed calls, 11% dist, and a lot less volatile than the PIMCO CEFs. I hold them as well. Best of luck with your new PF, health, and the new year. - RM
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 27, 2022 17:30:27 GMT
uncleharley , Hey Unc, I suspect you, with a bit of dementia (waaay in the future), is still better than me with mild COVID brain fog. Either way, I find your post interesting and practical. It does seem a bit concentrated, as retiredat48 mentioned. If I was to go your way, I'd also look at JEPI ~ 20% managed calls, 11% dist, and a lot less volatile than the PIMCO CEFs. I hold them as well. Best of luck with your new PF, health, and the new year. - RM Thank You for the tip. So far, the first half of my first day with my B&H port has produced a 1.38% loss. I am thinking of switching a position to the Q's but the market is not telling me if I should go long or short. This B&H stuff is making an old man out of me.
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Post by Chahta on Dec 27, 2022 17:40:07 GMT
uncleharley said: "So far, the first half of my first day with my B&H port has produced a 1.38% loss." The life of a CEF investor is such. Think of "getting paid" like you said before. steelpony10 would agree! I thought it might be hard for you to sit back and watch.
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 27, 2022 20:41:21 GMT
They are coming back for the close. The first trading day of the week is usually a little rough.
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Post by anitya on Dec 28, 2022 19:43:33 GMT
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 28, 2022 21:38:24 GMT
That article looks like a long read that I will get back to. I would be interested to know what tasks they used to determine what the professional traders skills where. Meanwhile the stock market indexes are dropping on light volume which normally indicates a fake move. When 2023 finally arrives, it should start out with a bang. That is except my Pimco CEFs, they are dropping on strong volume.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2022 13:24:12 GMT
I wasn't sure where to put this interview with Burton Malkiel. Since I have been trying to make myself scale more into index funds as I get closer to retirement, I chose this thread. He is the author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Key points are he sees slower economic growth due to demographics going forward and recommends sticking to index funds to build longterm wealth. I really like holding individual stocks, but only chose this path following Josh Peters dividend investing strategy. While it has proved to approach the S&P with more income over the last decade, I have no doubt index investing would be just as good from a total return standpoint if I focused on a total market index approach or equal weighted indexes. I do think Josh Peters was one of the few to consistently beat the S&P while at M*, but he's gone. I bought both VTI and SCHD this year, but have just small allocations to them so far. I will be reviewing my portfolio and investment policy statement this weekend. My issue is I have many companies I bought at great prices and don't see them going anywhere in my lifetime. I don't think I will sell those. I will definitely keep my allocation to equities higher than normally suggested for my age based on there being lower returns going forward. Never less than 75-25. Right now I am at 85-15. I find the demographics argument persuasive and others I follow have said the same. Will also keep at least a 15% international allocation. www.thinkadvisor.com/2022/12/27/burton-malkiel-the-unsexy-secret-to-building-wealth/
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Post by FD1000 on Dec 30, 2022 14:41:31 GMT
I wasn't sure where to put this interview with Burton Malkiel. Since I have been trying to make myself scale more into index funds as I get closer to retirement, I chose this thread. He is the author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Key points are he sees slower economic growth due to demographics going forward and recommends sticking to index funds to build longterm wealth. I really like holding individual stocks, but only chose this path following Josh Peters dividend investing strategy. While it has proved to approach the S&P with more income over the last decade, I have no doubt index investing would be just as good from a total return standpoint if I focused on a total market index approach or equal weighted indexes. I do think Josh Peters was one of the few to consistently beat the S&P while at M*, but he's gone. I bought both VTI and SCHD this year, but have just small allocations to them so far. I will be reviewing my portfolio and investment policy statement this weekend. My issue is I have many companies I bought at great prices and don't see them going anywhere in my lifetime. I don't think I will sell those. I will definitely keep my allocation to equities higher than normally suggested for my age based on there being lower returns going forward. Never less than 75-25. Right now I am at 85-15. I find the demographics argument persuasive and others I follow have said the same. Will also keep at least a 15% international allocation. www.thinkadvisor.com/2022/12/27/burton-malkiel-the-unsexy-secret-to-building-wealth/All you got to do is read this Quote: "Every year it turns out that two-thirds of active managers are beaten by a broad-based index. The index I use is the S&P 1500. The one-third that beats the average one year isn’t the same as the one-third that wins the next year. So when you compound that and look over 10 years, you find that 90% of active managers do worse than an index. I’m not saying there’s nobody who can outperform. Warren Buffett can, though recently, he hasn’t. He’s said he’s directed that his estate be invested in an index fund." Josh Peters probably beat the SP500 when it was weak. In 2000-2010 the SP500 lost money. Josh probably trailed the SP500 from 2010-2021. It would be easier to beat the SP500 in the next several years. Bob Dylan "You don't need a weatherman. To know which way the wind blows." This is why I invested in 2000-2010 mostly in value, SC, some international. In 2010-2021 in US LC tilting growth. In 01/2022, I posted that value+higher Div are leading, and a few months later energy showed strength, which means VTV=value(I prefer SCHD=generic good value+growth) + HDV(tilting energy). The chart below proves it. If someone must have single stocks, she can use 10-30% of their portfolio for their best ideas = up to 5 stocks. Attachments:
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2022 15:02:07 GMT
Josh Peters probably beat the SP500 when it was weak. In 2000-2010 the SP500 lost money. Josh probably trailed the SP500 from 2010-2021. It would be easier to beat the SP500 in the next several years. No.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2022 15:47:44 GMT
uncleharley, Just read your portfolio post. Good for you! Could you comment on your thought process to get to CEFs? What made you interested and when? What potential pitfalls did you or do you see?
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