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Post by johnsmith on Dec 15, 2022 14:56:10 GMT
"BF.7 is believed to have an R0, or basic reproduction number, of 10 to 18.6. This means an infected person will transmit the virus to an average of 10 to 18.6 other people. Research has shown omicron has an average R0 of 5.08. "
Measles has a R0 of around 12 - 18. (why the range - local conditions probably affect spread / most contagious viral disease)
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Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2022 15:31:34 GMT
Ron DeSantis FL gov recently conducted a conference where they discussed the side effects of COVID vaccines. Interesting conference, this is the first a high level individual discussed the side effects of COVID vaccines. Hopefully he won't be vanished by Pharmacy Mafia ! Link below fb.watch/hokvDsnSXg/ |
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Post by johnsmith on Dec 20, 2022 13:24:14 GMT
early in the vaccine rollout, I was listening to a show on the BBC and one scientist made the point that, the effects of covid were a lot worse than any side effects that the vaccine would present.
It would be better to have the "side effects" than die.
That still holds true today.
PS: anything Ron says can't be taken as being truth, he is trying to run for president in 24, it's propaganda.
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Post by bugman on Dec 20, 2022 13:43:51 GMT
Come on guys. EVERYTHING has side effects and extremely rare versus dying from something that has a VERY high likelihood of occurring. Risk management 101...
He's just appealing to the anti-crowd so he can become president. Nothing more...
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Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2022 21:13:53 GMT
early in the vaccine rollout, I was listening to a show on the BBC and one scientist made the point that, the effects of covid were a lot worse than any side effects that the vaccine would present.
It would be better to have the "side effects" than die.
That still holds true today.
PS: anything Ron says can't be taken as being truth, he is trying to run for president in 24, it's propaganda.
Side effects are acceptable after testing is done appropriately. COVID vaccines were developed within a year whereas typical new vaccine takes 7+ years for testing. I have two people in my family husband and wife died within one week of COVID shot. My son’s coworker died within a week, another coworker had a stroke after COVID vaccine. My Cousin who lives in NJ has a Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) which is a side effect of COVID vaccines, he has been disabled for over a year. COVID vaccines don’t prevent you from getting COVID either, my Friend’s Boss is vaccinated and has a Long COVID and has been sick at home for over 6 months. |
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Post by johnsmith on Dec 21, 2022 0:34:15 GMT
early in the vaccine rollout, I was listening to a show on the BBC and one scientist made the point that, the effects of covid were a lot worse than any side effects that the vaccine would present.
It would be better to have the "side effects" than die.
That still holds true today.
PS: anything Ron says can't be taken as being truth, he is trying to run for president in 24, it's propaganda.
Side effects are acceptable after testing is done appropriately. COVID vaccines were developed within a year whereas typical new vaccine takes 7+ years for testing. I have two people in my family husband and wife died within one week of COVID shot. My son’s coworker died within a week, another coworker had a stroke after COVID vaccine. My Cousin who lives in NJ has a Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) which is a side effect of COVID vaccines, he has been disabled for over a year. COVID vaccines don’t prevent you from getting COVID either, my Friend’s Boss is vaccinated and has a Long COVID and has been sick at home for over 6 months. I think concerns about the effectiveness, side-effects are valid; at the same time the value exceeds the costs significantly.
You want to do the calculations for how many Americans would die over 7 years without the vaccine? How many orphans? Your comrades willing to pay higher taxes to support all those sick, orphaned etc?
And plenty of Americans don't wish to vaccinate their kids for measles and all sorts of communicable diseases even though those vaccines have been thoroughly researched and work, so what makes you think that after 7 years, your comrades will actually not still have the same view?
I've seen the Ron type people, throw a s*** bomb and then walk away and let other people clean up the stinking mess.
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Post by richardsok on Dec 21, 2022 1:31:17 GMT
My 36 yo daughter is slim and athletic, never a smoker, drinker or druggie and she had VERY scary heart and brain reactions to a COVID vaccine.
My understanding is that the COVID mortality rate for healthy, slim kids and young adults is veritably miniscule, vaxxed or not. I tend to incline toward the youngsters who conclude "Not for me" or "never again".
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Post by Chahta on Dec 21, 2022 3:59:29 GMT
Come on guys. EVERYTHING has side effects and extremely rare versus dying from something that has a VERY high likelihood of occurring. Risk management 101... He's just appealing to the anti-crowd so he can become president. Nothing more... Pretty one-sided comment. So those that support the vax are only appealing to the pro crowd so they can become president? Have we all become so jaded that no one has real beliefs any more? Sorry, you are wrong on this one. |
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Post by chang on Dec 21, 2022 6:51:16 GMT
This thread is headed for a lockdown very quickly. I don’t know why this subject can’t be discussed rationally, but if it can’t then it can’t.
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Post by richardsok on Dec 21, 2022 12:17:54 GMT
With chang's admonition in mind, wouldn't a reasonable compromise be to vax the elderly, the ill and the obese to the maximum reasonably possible and to soberly present the known pros and cons (as we now understand them) to healthy young people, say 18 to 40, for whom Covid was rarely worse than a bad case of flu. Given what we now believe to be true, couldn't they decide for themselves w/o prodding or rancor?
Even the pro-vax believers must admit there was an element of fearful hysteria in our early Covid policies. Schools were shut down far too long. Here in Martin County, Florida the local government actually roped off the SAFEST place you could possibly be -- our sunny, uncrowded beaches.
Walmart and supermarkets remained open all through the worst. If clerks were dropping like flies, I certainly didn't read about it.
I'm 2x + boosted and not inclined to do more. If known facts change, I'll re-think it.
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Post by johnsmith on Dec 21, 2022 12:22:44 GMT
COVID mortality rate for healthy, slim kids and young adults is veritably miniscule, vaxxed or not. Mortality rates aren't the only considerations. I know someone who was "slim, athletic, late 40s", a marathon runner and a fitness coach - got covid, has long covid now. Didn't die. Can't walk a block around the neighborhood without getting exhausted. apparently 30% of people who got covid have some sort of long covid. There are many more considerations than "mortality". Sure we can be stupid too, it's all part of being human. |
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Post by richardsok on Dec 21, 2022 12:52:33 GMT
COVID mortality rate for healthy, slim kids and young adults is veritably miniscule, vaxxed or not. Mortality rates aren't the only considerations. I know someone who was "slim, athletic, late 40s", a marathon runner and a fitness coach - got covid, has long covid now. Didn't die. Can't walk a block around the neighborhood without getting exhausted. apparently 30% of people who got covid have some sort of long covid. There are many more considerations than "mortality". Sure we can be stupid too, it's all part of being human. "Stupid" is getting drunk and driving home 90 MPH. Young people making informed choices on Covid vs vax risks? Probably not. "Mature" is understanding that life comes with risks. I'm sorry for your friend. We all know of people who died young, caught cancer or Covid, run down by a car or beaten by thugs. So we can all point to examples to illustrate our opinions. At present we simply DO NOT KNOW what new Covid strains might do. But we DO know (A) the belief government policies can keep us "safe" is a myth while (B) heavy-handed government policies can hurt us in many unforeseen ways. We are ALL vulnerable in a hundred ways every day. Risk can be mitigated by sane living but there is no protection from bad luck. Sorry. |
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Post by fishingrod on Dec 21, 2022 13:19:23 GMT
While I am fully vaxxed and boosted and wish all who can, would. I am able to relate to people who do not want to be vaxxed. The problem I wrestle with is to what extent. Are we to allow people to choose their own way? What if the covid is spreading like wildfire and acting like a contagious disease such as measles or polio.
When does a deadly communicable disease become a health risk to the public at large? Not an easy scenario to be dealt with. I think it was close to this in the beginning.
I think that the first strains of the disease were nothing to be minimized. It seems now that the most prevalent strains are more mild to say the least. Thank goodness!!
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2022 13:51:50 GMT
richardsok, "With chang's admonition in mind, wouldn't a reasonable compromise be to vax the elderly, the ill and the obese to the maximum reasonably possible and to soberly present the known pros and cons (as we now understand them) to healthy young people, say 18 to 40, for whom Covid was rarely worse than a bad case of flu. Given what we now believe to be true, couldn't they decide for themselves w/o prodding or rancor?" richarsok for President!
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Post by gman57 on Dec 21, 2022 13:57:13 GMT
Well... there are estimated 3 or 4 hundred thousand people no longer with us because they didn't get the vaccine. Their relatives wish they had. There are also estimated millions of people still alive because they did get the vaccine. There are also a small number of people who died from the vaccine and their relatives wish they didn't get the vaccine. The problem is you don't know what side you're going to be on until it's too late. It's easy to pick one or the other until you or someone you love is affected. I went with the odds, got the shots, and luckily still here. My wife who has Parkinson's did have a reaction after 7 days that we think was from the vaccine and hasn't gotten any follow up shots. Anti-vax politics caused many more people to die than it saved. The vaccine saved lives. Unfortunately that is no comfort to those who lost loved ones to the vaccine.
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Post by win1177 on Dec 21, 2022 14:01:48 GMT
COVID mortality rate for healthy, slim kids and young adults is veritably miniscule, vaxxed or not. Mortality rates aren't the only considerations. I know someone who was "slim, athletic, late 40s", a marathon runner and a fitness coach - got covid, has long covid now. Didn't die. Can't walk a block around the neighborhood without getting exhausted. apparently 30% of people who got covid have some sort of long covid. There are many more considerations than "mortality". Sure we can be stupid too, it's all part of being human. As an MD, I’ve seen both “sides” of this issue. The vaccines do cause occasional side effects, and (rarely) they can be severe. This can occur with ANY vaccine, not just COVID vaccines! BUT, I saw a lot of people get VERY sick early in the pandemic, some of whom died. And some of the ones who died were not “elderly, overweight, diabetic, or high risk”. They were young or middle aged “normal people”, who just became sick as stink and died horrible deaths. Saw a 28 year old healthy teacher die, 58 year old healthy realtor die (after nearly 2 and 1/2 months on a ventilator), etc., etc. To me, the choice was pretty easy, get vaccinated (and run a relatively low risk of bad side effects), or “roll the dice” and hope I have a good out come. I got vaccinated, boosted, boosted again, and then boosted with the new Omicron specific booster. When I (finally) got COVID in Spring of 2022, had a VERY mild case, cleared quickly (in spite of my age (64) and well controlled diabetes), and I was back to normal w/in a week- 10 days. Win |
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Post by johntaylor on Dec 21, 2022 14:58:33 GMT
When the passions of the moment cool, it may be possible to look back on the past 2 yrs and discuss them as a fascinating episode in the history of the tension between the individual and his form of government.
Despite all the VAERS stuff about myocarditis etc, we got 2 shots + booster and thus far avoided covid.
The Hippocrates dictum "First, do no harm" came in Of the Epidemics, but it isn't certain he would have written "Primum, non nocere" rather than Greek.
One argument goes that lockdowns destroyed jobs, affected schools for 2 yrs, caused missed medical checkups for cardiology, oncology, etc. It'll be interesting to see the stats for substance abuse, depression, divorce, etc in a few yrs.
Whether people favored lockdowns or not, weren't they one of the biggest suspensions of civil rights in US history? No, not as bad as Native relocation, or detention in WW II (the Korematsu case), or slavery, or conscription into the military (Civil War to Vietnam).
But citizens were ordered to keep 6 feet of social distance as an apparently arbitrary standard. Places of worship were affected.
Copernicus supposedly waited to publish until he was on his deathbed because his theory went against the Church. During covid, any scientific opinion at odds with the "conventional wisdom" was censored off YouTube, Facebook, and Twitter -- i.e., the modern public square.
Balzac wrote a long series about what he called "the human comedy."
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Post by steelpony10 on Dec 21, 2022 17:12:12 GMT
Viruses, bacteria and all organisms mutate in an attempt to stay viable. They will kill to stay alive. Sound familiar? Just like carrying a gun a vaccination may increase the odds of survival. It’s about life choices based on your opinions which vary amongst individuals. Most decisions are opinions about unknowns whose future outcomes are also unknown. So hopefully factually based informed decisions.
I take all available vaccinations because I think along with Covid, Shingles, pneumonia etc. they may have more severe outcomes if infected as you age as reported all over the world. That’s about the largest and maybe unbiased study I can find. Plusses outweigh minuses is my opinion.*
*I go to a gym every morning so maybe I lean towards overkill. Lol.
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Post by bb2 on Dec 21, 2022 22:22:59 GMT
I get that people are afraid of the vax but that number seems elevated by voices who seem to me, suspect.
Personnally I rolled up my sleeve without giving it a thought.
No lack of hysterics, both ways.
No thanks to the media portraying NYC as a death camp. (They've completely given up on temperatures, just windchill now.)
And the other media portraying Anthony Fauchi as the devil himself.
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Post by Norbert on Dec 21, 2022 23:12:25 GMT
My 36 yo daughter is slim and athletic, never a smoker, drinker or druggie and she had VERY scary heart and brain reactions to a COVID vaccine. My understanding is that the COVID mortality rate for healthy, slim kids and young adults is veritably miniscule, vaxxed or not. I tend to incline toward the youngsters who conclude "Not for me" or "never again". Thanks for posting this. I was initially vaccinated with Pfizer (2 doses), then got a Moderna booster last January. Had a terrible reaction, with sore muscles for months, with lingering pain 11 months later. It may be true that nasty reactions are rare, but so are nasty reactions to Covid in healthy individuals. Me, I'm avoiding any new vaccinations going forward. I now fully understand why a great athlete like Djokovic refused these inadequately tested vaccines. It seems there's a kind of "political correctness" surrounding the debate, whereby if someone is skeptical about vaccines, lockdowns, closed schools, or masks for everyone, he's labeled as some kind of right-wing nutcase. The damage caused by all these measures is greater than many think. |
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Post by retiredat48 on Dec 22, 2022 1:44:38 GMT
I got all vaccines, but NOT the latest booster.
What I don't see discussed here is the quick decline in antibodies after vaccinating, and the relative ineffectiveness of current strain vaccine in preventing COVID.
I don't have quick reference to the studies underway, but current data/studies show whether one got the latest booster or not, catching covid latest strains are equal in frequency...ie no improvement.
BTY I undertook antibody testing both before and after my shots, and was very surprised how fast my antibodies declined...like two-three months. GVT now publishing this data more and more, but in early days they did not provide summary antibody info.
Which begs the question...if you had a young child like age 7, you have to commit to a lifetime of at least annual covid vaccinating your child to be effective. Who wants to commit to this currently??
Disclosure: I did take my annual flu vaccine in November this year.
Disclosure 2: I live in Florida and now eat all my restaurant meals outside (great weather)! No insides for me; I also still wear a mask when among people.
R48
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2022 2:06:21 GMT
retiredat48, What is GVT? BTY I undertook antibody testing both before and after my shots, and was very surprised how fast my antibodies declined...like two-three months. GVT now publishing this data more and more, but in early days they did not provide summary antibody info.
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Post by retiredat48 on Dec 22, 2022 16:32:16 GMT
retiredat48 , What is GVT? BTY I undertook antibody testing both before and after my shots, and was very surprised how fast my antibodies declined...like two-three months. GVT now publishing this data more and more, but in early days they did not provide summary antibody info. gvt = government...in this case, agencies such as CDC...which actually stands for Center for Disease Control AND PREVENTION. R48 |
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Post by johnsmith on Dec 28, 2022 12:46:46 GMT
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Post by Mustang on Dec 28, 2022 16:57:06 GMT
Since I was an accountant and not a doctor I may not get this exactly right but I did read up on vaccines when the discussion about booster shots first started. We all know that vaccine work. We pretty much eradicated polio, tetanus, rabies, yellow fever, whooping cough, small pox, and mumps but we cannot do anything for the flu. We have to get a flu shot every year. The difference between the diseases we conquered and those that don't is how the virus mutates. If it doesn't mutate we have a very good success rate. If it does we don't.
Antibodies are what kills the disease after a person is exposed. Antibodies appear in the blood stream as long a exposure continues. If exposure stops then the antibodies in the blood stream decline but the body remembers how to create them should the person be exposed again. Declining antibodies doesn't mean the vaccine stopped working. The body will still kill the original virus. But if the virus mutates, it doesn't recognize the mutated virus and doesn't recreate the antibodies. So a person who has had covid can catch the new variant just like someone who catches the flu multiple times.
There was also something in the article about upper respiratory infections. If I remember correctly an upper respiratory infection doesn't trigger antibody production. As covid evolved it mutated into an upper respiratory infection. It became less deadly and for a couple of reasons it didn't trigger antibody production.
My wife and I have both Pfizer and the first booster. We are in a high risk category. The biggest problem I had with mandatory covid vaccinations was the failure to recognize natural immunity.
Both those having taken the vaccines and those with natural immunity can still pass on the virus. It doesn't mean they are sick. The test is a swab of the mouth and nasal passages. I swear they went so far up my nose they must have touched the brain [joking]. Someone who is immune can test positive if they have recently just breathed in the virus. It doesn't mean they will get sick. It just means they were re-exposed.
There were several companies making vaccines. Some worked better than others. I also thought that we were not suppose to mix vaccines. If someone had Pfizer shots they were suppose to get Pfizer boosters. My wife and I did and we experienced no complications. But as long as the virus is mutating vaccines and booster will have limited effectiveness. They may lesson the severity but someone can catch it again.
That is my understanding of how it works. If something is wrong maybe win1177 , will correct it. As I said, I was an accountant not a doctor. |
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Post by bugman on Dec 28, 2022 17:34:23 GMT
Good account for an accountant  , but good analysis in either field. |
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Post by win1177 on Dec 28, 2022 17:58:39 GMT
Mustang,
You are basically correct in what you are saying. Antibodies are a MAJOR portion of the “immune response” to fight off infections, especially against MOST viruses, bacteria, etc. Some infectious agents (fungal, certain viruses (HIV, etc.), some bacteria (Tuberculosis, Leprosy, etc.) rely on OTHER immune responses, such as T cells, other cellular responses (Macrophages, etc.), humoral response, etc., as the primary way to “fight back” against infectious agents.
In the case of COVID 19, the “primary mechanism” is through “antibodies”, which are proteins designed to “recognize” foreign invaders as “not part of the body”, attach themselves to the foreign invaders, and then trigger the body to try to “kill” the invader. All of our primary COVID 19 vaccines work by building up antibody producing cells, which can then start “producing antibodies” as soon as a foreign substance is recognized. There is also a cellular response involving T helper cells, so if there is a big drop in T cells this can “blunt” some of the immune response. But the MAIN way we have been trying to combat the disease is through inoculating people with vaccines which encourage the body to make antibody producing cells. These cells persist, and are later able to start “cranking out” antibodies if one is later exposed to the form of COVID 19 that was used in the vaccine production. But this immunity slowly declines with time. Hence, the importance of “boosters”. Boosters become even more important when we have major mutations such as Omicron (once the boosters are altered with the new messenger RNA for the mutation).
If the COVID 19 virus later mutates and has “different proteins” on its surface, it can potentially ESCAPE detection. This is the situation with the various Omicron strains, as well as the earlier Delta variants. They differ “enough” on their surface protein coat that the body DOES NOT RECOGNIZE them as “foreign”, and thus does NOT mount an immune response, or a weaker immune response. This is more likely to happen immunocompromised individuals (cancer treatment, older folks, people on steroids, etc.). It also led to importance of boosters after September 2022, when the boosters were altered to be more “antigenic” against Omicron. SO, if you have NOT had a booster SINCE September, my suggestion is get a booster!
I am (obviously) “pro- vaccine”, and will admit my bias. However, I believe the “risks” of getting vaccinated are WAY less than the risk of going unvaccinated. I have seen WAY too many people die from this disease, and to me it is like choosing to wear seatbelts versus “rolling the dice” and NOT wearing seatbelts. I believe people should be vaccinated. When you have an illness/ infection with COVID 19, it will also stimulate antibody production, but often NOT as strong as a vaccination will, so you should still consider getting vaccinated, IMHO.
Win
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, but good analysis in either field.