Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2022 13:15:25 GMT
Mulling the idea of waiting for a much lower and stable US10YR yield before putting cash to work. We probably know what is needed for that to happen. When is not as clear.
|
|
|
|
Post by FD1000 on Nov 4, 2022 13:39:38 GMT
" a much lower and stable US10YR yield before putting cash to work" ?
Can you define lower?
The time to invest is when the price is at the high, not lower, and stabilize. (hint: when the Fed stop raising rates)
What % is this new money from your total portfolio?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2022 14:03:00 GMT
" a much lower and stable US10YR yield before putting cash to work" ? Can you define lower? The time to invest is when the price is at the high, not lower, and stabilize. (hint: when the Fed stop raising rates) What % is this new money from your total portfolio? Lower 10YR yield = Higher Bond Prices and Higher Stock Prices. Lower is lower than now. Stable means well, stable (lower SD) The % to invest varies from a flat monthly amount to a possible large lump sum. |
|
|
|
Post by Fearchar on Nov 4, 2022 14:37:24 GMT
Here are recent market based probabilities for short term rates:  My sense is that we have a bit more to go before longer term rates turn. However, I'm sure that many are thinking along the same lines. Hope this helps! |
|
|
|
Post by FD1000 on Nov 4, 2022 21:08:12 GMT
" a much lower and stable US10YR yield before putting cash to work" ? Can you define lower? The time to invest is when the price is at the high, not lower, and stabilize. (hint: when the Fed stop raising rates) What % is this new money from your total portfolio? Lower 10YR yield = Higher Bond Prices and Higher Stock Prices. Lower is lower than now. Stable means well, stable (lower SD) The % to invest varies from a flat monthly amount to a possible large lump sum. As I said already, "The time to invest is when the price is at the high, not lower, and stabilize." If you wait for lower rates, and lower SD, you will miss a lot of bond fund performance, because the minute investors realize rates are not going up, bonds will make money pretty quickly = higher SD. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2022 22:00:06 GMT
Lower 10YR yield = Higher Bond Prices and Higher Stock Prices.Lower is lower than now. Stable means well, stable (lower SD) The % to invest varies from a flat monthly amount to a possible large lump sum. As I said already, "The time to invest is when the price is at the high, not lower, and stabilize." If you wait for lower rates, and lower SD, you will miss a lot of bond fund performance, because the minute investors realize rates are not going up, bonds will make money pretty quickly = higher SD. Apparently, you don't realize that you are basically saying and doing what I posted.  |
|
|
|
Post by ECE Prof on Nov 4, 2022 22:57:14 GMT
Here are recent market based probabilities for short term rates: View AttachmentMy sense is that we have a bit more to go before longer term rates turn. However, I'm sure that many are thinking along the same lines. Hope this helps! Does it (based on your table) mean, the time to get back is April 2023? |
|
|
|
Post by FD1000 on Nov 4, 2022 23:10:47 GMT
As I said already, "The time to invest is when the price is at the high, not lower, and stabilize." If you wait for lower rates, and lower SD, you will miss a lot of bond fund performance, because the minute investors realize rates are not going up, bonds will make money pretty quickly = higher SD. Apparently, you don't realize that you are basically saying and doing what I posted. I'm doing what you posted? Do you own currently stocks or bonds? I don't. |
|
|
|
Post by Fearchar on Nov 5, 2022 1:08:43 GMT
ECE Prof, The chart that I posted is the Markets expectation for what the Federal Reserves will do between now and the end of next year. It's based on the market pricing of various option contracts. I am not aware of any options contracts that can be used to determine the markets expectation of the best time to re-enter the market. However, it could very well be shortly after the Fed ceases to raise rates. On the other hand, the market tends to anticipate the future. So, the best time to enter may be some what sooner (maybe even today!).
|
|
|
|
Post by ECE Prof on Nov 5, 2022 13:35:36 GMT
ECE Prof , The chart that I posted is the Markets expectation for what the Federal Reserves will do between now and the end of next year. It's based on the market pricing of various option contracts. I am not aware of any options contracts that can be used to determine the markets expectation of the best time to re-enter the market. However, it could very well be shortly after the Fed ceases to raise rates. On the other hand, the market tends to anticipate the future. So, the best time to enter may be some what sooner (maybe even today!). I never quit the equities 100%. I have initiated the transfer of my portfolios from Vanguard to Fido. So, I left a lot of cash, as they are 18.5% on the table for now. Here is my portfolio:
|
|
|
|
Post by Fearchar on Nov 5, 2022 14:09:48 GMT
ECE Prof, Thanks for sharing details. You're far more into the market than I am. I am holding about 51.5% Cash and equivalents. That includes some 3 month treasuries and CDs dated in Feb/March. I've been rather conservative since early this year and will remain patient.
|
|
|
|
Post by bobfl on Nov 17, 2022 17:26:37 GMT
The market is forward-looking. In other words, the institutional investors get back in before most retail investors. As one billionaire investor said, get in when the market drops 20%. Don't worry about the last 10%.
|
|
|
|
Post by johnsmith on Nov 17, 2022 17:49:13 GMT
Mulling the idea of waiting for a much lower and stable US10YR yield before putting cash to work. We probably know what is needed for that to happen. When is not as clear. lower?
I want the 10 year to go all the way to 6%, so I can invest and after that I want it to go back to 0%, so I can reap all those lucrative cap gains!
Also 10 year rates aren't completely connected to the short term Fed Rate. Some, not a whole lot. That's why the inversion, where short term rates are higher than 10 year treasurys.
|
|
|
|
Post by johnsmith on Nov 17, 2022 17:53:15 GMT
ECE Prof , Thanks for sharing details. You're far more into the market than I am. I am holding about 51.5% Cash and equivalents. That includes some 3 month treasuries and CDs dated in Feb/March. I've been rather conservative since early this year and will remain patient. Do you know when you'll put this money to work?
Uncle Warren seems to be putting money to work.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2022 19:41:19 GMT
Watching the market has become a spectator sport for me. I have been half in and half out without changes for months. Not sure when I will get motivated or if I should.
|
|
|
|
Post by ECE Prof on Nov 17, 2022 20:27:53 GMT
Watching the market has become a spectator sport for me. I have been half in and half out without changes for months. Not sure when I will get motivated or if I should. I was out back in Sep 26 to stop bleeding. I reentered on Oct. 3 and made some money. Not only that, but I waited for a day until Oct. 10, and lost most of it. It was just a minor bruise, not bad. Then, I learned that I should follow @uncleharely to get in and out before the market goes down again. I did two times and locked up more than 3% gain each time – twice now. Today, I am back all cash except for UTG, PDI, and ECC (all CEF). They provide good income every month. Leave them alone. If the prices of these three CEFs reach my appetite, I may buy a few thousand shares with the cash.
There could be an opportunity after Thanksgiving to get back due to some TLS. I am not in a hurry to get back. Let those guys sell, and I will decide whether to jump back in. This market swings clearly point up-down, not one way or other – a sort of traders' market.
|
|
|
|
Post by steelpony10 on Nov 17, 2022 20:35:37 GMT
Watching the market has become a spectator sport for me. I have been half in and half out without changes for months. Not sure when I will get motivated or if I should. In regards to market timing: PONAX/PIMIX distributes over 5% monthly now from corporate debt, peeking out at about 5.5% or thereabouts historically. Great management. It’s recent lower range was about 3.6%. Down in value about 8% YTD. VWALX distributions are near 3% tax free municipals with a 5.5-6% high peak in recent history but a bottom of about 2.5%. With a wider range this means it’s down about 12% presently. Great long term record. If you’re looking for a sign from the market Gods it will look like this: I think this is about the third strictly headline driven short term market rally/crash. Looks sorta range bound and relatively short term. I have found this to occur early in the past when trying to reign in inflation which I think this might be. How many of these before the big one, who knows, but you’ll know it when you see it. DCA, dividend reinvestment and watching sports with people spectators is the way to go. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2022 21:56:18 GMT
Never got out of the market. I leave that to the intelligent folks on this forum who can time the market.
|
|
|
|
Post by FD1000 on Nov 19, 2022 4:54:38 GMT
Watching the market has become a spectator sport for me. I have been half in and half out without changes for months. Not sure when I will get motivated or if I should. I was out back in Sep 26 to stop bleeding. I reentered on Oct. 3 and made some money. Not only that, but I waited for a day until Oct. 10, and lost most of it. It was just a minor bruise, not bad. Then, I learned that I should follow @uncleharely to get in and out before the market goes down again. I did two times and locked up more than 3% gain each time – twice now. Today, I am back all cash except for UTG, PDI, and ECC (all CEF). They provide good income every month. Leave them alone. If the prices of these three CEFs reach my appetite, I may buy a few thousand shares with the cash.
There could be an opportunity after Thanksgiving to get back due to some TLS. I am not in a hurry to get back. Let those guys sell, and I will decide whether to jump back in. This market swings clearly point up-down, not one way or other – a sort of traders' market.
Trader Almanac ( link): "Thanksgiving week has a notorious “holiday fueled” bullish bias as do the last seven trading days of the month." SPY: ST uptrend looks good, but a lot of resistance at 4000-4300 ( chart). |
|
|
|
Post by ECE Prof on Nov 19, 2022 14:36:16 GMT
Thanks, FD. I am not moving now, this year, particularly. All mutual funds are sitting at a loss. The managers have to sell and pass on the loss to its customers. Guess what happened last year to Vanguard? They passed on hefty CG on some funds, while the customers had a big loss. Vanguard paid fines on a class action lawsuit and settled.
This situation defies all the norms of investing. So, I am staying put for a while.
|
|
