|
|
Post by bizman on Oct 8, 2022 4:25:34 GMT
David Giroux of T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund is interviewed on Consuelo Mack Wealthtrack this week. He thinks cyclicals, high quality growth stocks, and analog semiconductor stocks look quite attractive with a 3-5 year time horizon. Says another 10-15% down would be another buying opportunity on par with the GFC (Great Financial Crisis) or the Covid lows. Favorable mentions include: NXPI, TXN, MSFT, GOOGL, and the 5 year Treasury (as a bet on the Fed getting control of inflation in the next couple of years). |
|
|
|
Post by retiredat48 on Oct 8, 2022 5:17:46 GMT
bizman,...Thanks. I like interviews of him. Useful. I was surprised at his aggressive move out of vanilla bonds and into bank loans...and now going into 5 year Treasuries! I own a foothold of his fund. I never go to zero when a fund closes. R48
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2022 9:09:29 GMT
It was a very good interview. Good summary Biz. I thought of you when I heard him mention TXN. It definitely made me more comfortable with my big tech holdings and I will look at MSFT harder in the months to come to add to.
He also discussed utilities as a good investment over a 20 year horizon. For income investors - that sounds great! He suggested one would be better off moving what they have in staples over to utilities. He lightened up on utilities considerably at the start of the year.
|
|
|
|
Post by saratoga on Oct 8, 2022 9:13:34 GMT
My tax-deferred account basically consists of PRWCX(TRAIX), TIAA Real Estate, TIAA Traditional.
As interest rates increase further, I will move funds in the direction: TIAA Real Estate ->(before the end of this year) TIAA Traditional -> (sometime around the mid-year next year?) PRWCX.
I rely on PRWCX together with my pension and SS to provide the bulk of my relatively modest retirement spending. The conservative allocation of my tax-deferred account has limited its ytd loss to a single digit.
|
|
|
|
Post by johntaylor on Oct 8, 2022 16:33:41 GMT
Owned this since 1986, and added to it every month since then as part of core
|
|
|
|
Post by roi2020 on Oct 8, 2022 19:27:49 GMT
This was a good episode.
At the start of 2022, approximately two-thirds of the PRWCX fixed income portfolio was in short-duration bank loans.
This positioning really helped fund performance - especially on the fixed income side.
Historically, Mr. Giroux has purchased Treasuries only three times in his career.
There were no Treasuries in PRWCX at the start of the year but they (5 Yr Treasuries) now comprise ~10% of the portfolio.
Mr. Giroux currently likes analog semiconductors - NXP, TXN.
He also likes several big tech companies - AAPL, MSFT, GOOG.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2022 12:42:38 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by FD1000 on Oct 17, 2022 18:21:30 GMT
As I said many times over the years, Giroux is one of my favorite managers of all times. Using BL was correct in the beginning of 2022 and would be the correct bond category to today.
Starting to buy treasuries months ago was a mistake. Just as he admitted buying GE.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2022 11:18:55 GMT
Anyone watching TXN and have any insights into valuation? Down sharply after earnings.
|
|
|
|
Post by Norbert on Oct 27, 2022 12:00:03 GMT
Not watching TXN, but noticed these price forecasts at Trading Economics:
"Texas Instruments traded at $157.87 this Wednesday October 26th, decreasing $4.29 or 2.65 percent since the previous trading session. Looking back, over the last four weeks, Texas Instruments lost 1.77 percent. Over the last 12 months, its price fell by 15.62 percent. Looking ahead, we forecast Texas Instruments to be priced at 154.67 by the end of this quarter and at 140.47 in one year, according to Trading Economics global macro models projections and analysts expectations."
Sorry, just see numbers, no analysis. Pretty useless, actually.
|
|
|
|
Post by bizman on Oct 27, 2022 22:27:16 GMT
On TXN, I don't have super-deep thoughts other than the following. I would like to own it long term at the right price because of their industrial and automotive exposure, as well as the fact they do their own manufacturing in the US and are building capacity for the long term. Great capital allocation.
Short term, forward guidance is lousy, industrial is weak, so far automotive is still holding up. My guess is we may be headed into a recession next year. If so, automotive should weaken as well. While it is probably an OK buy around current levels, I am looking for a discount. Which may or may not come.
Until I have more confidence it is a better buy than my bogey, SCHD, I will hold off.
|
|
|
|
Post by johntaylor on Mar 2, 2023 22:15:37 GMT
Since 2006, Cap Apprec delivered 101% of mkt return while taking on 69% of its risk (Annual Report, Dec 2022, 7)
|
|
|
|
Post by FD1000 on Mar 3, 2023 0:55:08 GMT
As much as I think that PRWCX is the best allocation, it still lags the SPY for 10-12 years, and why you have to go back 16-17 years to include one of the worse years, 2008. Since 1-1-2018, SPY fell 20% 3 times and still ahead of PRWCX. IMO, it should of done better.
|
|
|
|
Post by roi2020 on Mar 3, 2023 2:30:55 GMT
Since 2006, Cap Apprec delivered 101% of mkt return while taking on 69% of its risk (Annual Report, Dec 2022, 7)
That's a very nice risk/reward ratio!
|
|
|
|
Post by johntaylor on Mar 5, 2023 14:55:00 GMT
The reason to mention 2006 was that was when Giroux took over
|
|
