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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2021 15:41:39 GMT
I am kind of losing patience with Berkshire Hathaway stock. It is 4th largest holding of mine. I bought most of it like 10 years back.
It has acted like a value mutual fund.
It is collection of companies that I would not buy any of them if sold separately.
It is in IRA so no tax issues.
What should I replace it by?
Interesting - 5 year performance of SCHD is 72% and Berkshire 75%. Though in last 1 year SCHD outperformed BRK.B by 10%.
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Post by xray on Jan 27, 2021 16:58:24 GMT
Berkshire used to have "2" CEF's that a lot of us had in our current portfolio's that was collecting a dividend of 7-10% [way back when (BIF/BTF]. With that said.... Berkshire moved to a "traders" system for traders [CapGain Buy/Sell often]. Most of us retiree's are "dividend and CapGains" oriented currently and just monitor BIF "Watch List" for any changes in their current [bad] management philosophy. BIF should never be trading at the discount that it is which gives us a negative signal as to where BIF is headed [IMHO].... Replacement is rather easy as there are "many" different securities that are performing very well but the investments are subject a investors "Goals & Objectives" and "Risk Tolerances"....
tinyurl.com/uoet2y1m
Sample only, not to be used without further investor analysis to one's individual goals and objectives....
Disclosure: Currently some of us hold all of the shown securities in current portfolio....
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SORRY: Compatibility problem of posting the complete information and answering your question....
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Post by anitya on Jan 27, 2021 18:39:19 GMT
I own all of my BRK, bought more than 10 years ago, in a taxable account. If it was in an IRA, I would have exited it a couple of years ago. In the past three years, its total return is 6% cumulative - that is less than 2% per year, less than an online savings account or money market accounts and handsomely less than VUSFX. It may do well in the future but the company will have to first go thru a leadership transition and restructuring.
If I wanted a similar flavor, I would have put the sale proceeds in DIA.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2021 19:07:09 GMT
VTI (Total Stock Market) seems like better option than DIA.
I understand DIA is very similar to BRK.B. But I do not want similar. But do not want to go totally QQQ or ARK.
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Post by xray on Jan 27, 2021 20:36:38 GMT
For waffle: What are you looking at or basically analyzing for performance [either NAV or book value] in your buy/sell activity [and comparing it to what] I just ran a computer check on VTI, DEA and ARK "vs" GLO/GLQ [shown as examples only]. GLO & GLQ, as a example only [analysis is on closed-end board], announced [on 1/8] a 21% and 22% increase in their Distribution policy. Looking at my current chart data and dividend/CapGain possibilities, many of the securities that the board looks at [or in discussion] are under water or close to it.... Keep in mind that the sector favorability always changes and only the "NAV" or "book values" are what we continue to analyze. Market Prices mean "nothing" IMHO, as market prices are subject to message board favorability as well investor sentiment....
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2021 20:55:18 GMT
I have never invested in a CEF. Do not know much about them at all. I usually avoid anything exotic.
What is pros/cons for CEF vs ETF? Are CEF better for tax deferred account, regular brokerage accounts or does not matter.
I will research GLO/GLQ and read your post on it.
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Post by xray on Jan 28, 2021 22:26:10 GMT
For waffle:
CEF's are like all other securities we invest in. Some are good, some are bad. Knowing the difference is rather important to our pocket books. CEF's, unfortunately, have to be traded like other securities we might have in our portfolio's. Buy and Hold is gone forever. Should we be a BUY/Hold type investor, we would always [unfortunatly] be seeing a "Sine Curve" [up, then neutral, then down, then neutral, then up,...etc]. The traders would be making the money and we would be left with [basically] nothing to speak of [except the dividend]. This is why I always talk about putting [all] our knowledge of the market into our excel worksheets for proper investing....
"Dependent" on the market, any security might look good, and then suddenly bad. This is why I always tell investors [IMHO] that looking back [over time]" >3month's" is "worthless". I always try to look forward, and if I like what I see in analysis, will look back a month [up to three months maximum]. If we look back further, we are looking into a rear view mirror and have no sense as to what a security should be doing [going forward] IMHO....
Normally, a investor gets his feet wet [toe into the market] in a taxable account where he might use a "wash sale" if a investment does not work out [or sell out]. If a investment works out well, then buying it into a tax deferred account would be warranted [again IMHO]. This is, of course, not a over-night process....
If you are looking at [and analyzing] GLO/GLQ, you might want to read their latest dividend increases [>20% each] and use the 1-month/3-month rule I am speaking about. Most of us [in those securities] are doing quite well with their current distributions and current CapGains. Add to this, that in a continuing down market, we always have the "dividend" [normally >9%] to live with until the market turns around. In addition, take a "hard look [with a chart] of xglox, xglqx vs glo and glq and visualize the rise in MktPrc as "GLO and GLQ" follow the growing NAV's [vs the NAV x---x's]....
I will send you [in the website mail], over the weekend, a very good article I read defining "what a CEF is all about"...
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Post by chang on Jan 29, 2021 5:14:49 GMT
Intruder and I had some discussions about this on M* last year. Recapping my thoughts: (1) Berkshire's subsidiaries are so yesterday. Who would invest in these companies today? (2) When Warren Buffett moves on, his BRK fortune will pass to the Gates Foundation, which I will assume will be a seller. There were other negatives, too. I simply cannot see any reason to own Berkshire. In fact, most funds with a big #1 holding in BRK, e.g., FMI Large Cap, Tweedy Browne Value, Clipper, Davis, etc. are doing poorly.
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Post by steadyeddy on Jan 30, 2021 20:07:47 GMT
All my stock holdings are indexed broad market ETFs... stopped dabbling in BRK a couple of years ago. Of course, I do own a few balanced mutual funds that have stocks in them.
I think a total US stock market fund or even the total world stock market fund would be a good replacement since it is in an IRA.
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Post by chang on Jan 31, 2021 2:11:24 GMT
I realize that in my previous comment I offered no alternatives, which @waffle asked about. I have heard people talk about Markel (MKL) and Leucadia (LUK) as the "next Berkshire Hathaways". More tech-minded pundits have suggested that Amazon or Alphabet are becoming the 21st century Berkshires. But if I were looking to replace BRK I would avoid the stock-selection risk and just go with the best Large Value fund I could find. Right now, that would be SCHD or VDADX/VIG in taxable, and maybe DSEEX* in tax-deferred. (*I still have questions about this one, even though I have owned it for 3-4 years. It seems to work, though.)
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Post by bb2 on Feb 2, 2021 19:16:20 GMT
Anytime I've been tempted to buy BRK, I just think, See's Candy. The urge passes. That said, I guess even BRK can change: GOLD, AAPL.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2021 1:01:55 GMT
Good that I waited on selling BRK.B. It is up 7.37% YTD. Though I am still tempted to sell soon.
Interestingly Buffett has been selling Financials and he bought VZ, CVX and ES Scrips.
Considering Financials is right in center of Buffets circle of competence, can it be considered a bearish signal on Financial?
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Post by chang on Feb 17, 2021 3:48:24 GMT
Interesting that WB dumped JPM. JPM is one of only two stocks that I own. Not a large holding, but an old one (over 20 years). No point in my ever selling, since the cost basis is low. Recent performance/momentum has been strong, though. Buffett is obviously NOT using T/A!
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Post by chang on Apr 16, 2021 2:16:50 GMT
I was a little surprised to read that Apple is 44.25% of Berkshire's portfolio (valued at $117 billion): finance.yahoo.com/news/84-warren-buffetts-portfolio-2021-155932408.htmlBuffett: "I don't think of Apple as a stock. I think of it as our third business. It's probably the best business I know in the world. And that is a bigger commitment than we have in any business except insurance and the railroad."
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Post by johntaylor on Apr 21, 2021 16:15:58 GMT
Other than indirectly, I no longer hold BRK
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Post by Fearchar on Dec 18, 2021 19:08:43 GMT
Attention Shoppers!
BRK is currently on sale; P/B is 1.39
Probably not worth buying at a P/B much above 1.40
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2021 19:34:49 GMT
It is good I held onto BRK.B. I got 29% returns on it so far YTD. It is long term holding (10 years) and its goal was to provide value component to my portfolio.
Though I agreed with Chang when he asked if I would buy stocks of any of the companies BRK own outright if they had stocks as independent companies. And answer was NO.
Edit: Though if i had just invested in aapl instead, which is 45% of BRK, I would have made 32% ytd (as compared to 29% on BRK) I do have position in aapl.
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Post by Fearchar on Dec 18, 2021 20:20:29 GMT
Santa has Berky shares for everybody this Christmas! Doesn't matter if you've been naughty or nice.
It's not too late to back up your truck. Only up 5.63% from 6 months ago and a long runway ahead!
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Post by Fearchar on Dec 24, 2021 12:58:17 GMT
am I looking at this correctly?
The current P/E for BRK is 7.95 (according to M*) That works out to an earnings yield of 12.5%!
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Post by Fearchar on Dec 29, 2021 20:34:31 GMT
Another new high!!!
VIG; which is well aligned has also hit a new high.
oh; also found out that the M* P/E for BRK is way off. However it's still a value stock.
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Post by Fearchar on Jan 4, 2022 15:24:35 GMT
Berkshire has hit another new high.
However, it's no longer a good buy as the Price/Book ratio is now >1.40
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Post by jongaltiii on Jan 4, 2022 15:43:04 GMT
Berkshire has hit another new high. However, it's no longer a good buy as the Price/Book ratio is now >1.40 Median has been 1.37 with a high of 1.597 on 12/2017 when the stock price was $199.00 At the low P/B .90 - 3/2020 - the price was $162 FWIW
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Post by Fearchar on Jan 4, 2022 15:52:19 GMT
thanks @waffle,
It's looking like the Momentum crowd has kicked in. No telling how stupid this may get.
The question now becomes at which point does one sell. And how much BRK is too much BRK.
Most of my BRK is in a tax deferred account.
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Post by uncleharley on Jan 4, 2022 16:13:37 GMT
That is a good question. The answer could be when the weekly MACD makes a bearish crossover.
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Post by anitya on Jan 4, 2022 19:52:15 GMT
I bought more last month at $ 289 for a long term hold.
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Post by jongaltiii on Jan 4, 2022 21:19:17 GMT
File Under: How yah like them apples? Perhaps folks woke up to the news this morning that Berkshire has $140 Billion in unrealized gains from Apple? www.cnbc.com/2022/01/04/warren-buffett-makes-over-120-billion-on-apples-trot-to-3-trillion-among-his-best-bets-ever.html“Berkshire’s investment in Apple vividly illustrates the power of repurchases,” the conglomerate said in its 2020 annual report. “Despite that sale [in 2020] – voila! – Berkshire now owns 5.4% of Apple. That increase was costless to us, coming about because Apple has continuously repurchased its shares, thereby substantially shrinking the number it now has outstanding.” “But that’s far from all of the good news. Because we also repurchased Berkshire shares during the 2 1⁄2 years, you now indirectly own a full 10% more of Apple’s assets and future earnings than you did in July 2018,” Berkshire said in the report."
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Post by anitya on Jan 5, 2022 8:59:06 GMT
I may have said this before. BRK now is more interesting to me than it was many years ago when I first bought it. Its core businesses are old economy but stable businesses with economic moats while its investment portfolio has become dominated by growthy / tech companies. Not sure why but its stock price moves with XLF than with SPY (or even with KIE, given its float generating insurance business).
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Post by Fearchar on Jan 5, 2022 12:23:58 GMT
anitya Nothing like a new all time high to warm everybody's heart! Technically, BRK is a classic growth company. Nothing overly aggressive or speculative of course, but clearly profitable and growing. Broadly diversified enough that it does not correlate closely to KIE or XLF When I ran the numbers long term correlation to KIE is 0.55 Long term correlation to XLF is 0.60 The correlation though is improving over time. Most recent 36 month correlations are 0.78 and 0.82. The more significant differences though are the long term annualized returns BRK: 10.61% KIE: 7.09% XLF: 4.75% www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=BRK.B+XLF+KIE&timePeriod=2&tradingDays=60&months=36
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Post by Fearchar on Jan 5, 2022 12:29:20 GMT
Notice too, that BRK is not included within the portfolio of KIE.
On the other hand, it's now 12.59% of XLF.
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Post by Fearchar on Jan 5, 2022 12:50:33 GMT
Correlation between BRK and SPY is also increasing.
Most recent 36 month period is 0.79 !
Again, return on BRK is superior. From 1/1/1999 to the present BRK return is 8.38% versus 7.98% for SPY Standard deviation is slightly greater though.
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