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Post by johnsmith on Oct 7, 2022 15:56:29 GMT
What do people think?
use this: |
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Post by ECE Prof on Oct 7, 2022 16:12:21 GMT
What do people think?
use this: CEFAnayzer stopped working several months ago. I used it a lot until it worked. I do not think if it updates the values correctly and the results displayed are current or current. They are all old data.
UTG looks good with a discount that I have never seen before, but I would not yet jump in until the rate hikes are done with. It is very competitive, but, even if I pay 20% on taxes for PDI in my taxable account (after tax 10.4%), my personal yield will be higher than the yield from UTG (8.54%) before taxes. Besides, the stocks are going down too, and what if $SPX drops another 10%, and UTG also drops another 8%?
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Post by ECE Prof on Oct 7, 2022 16:37:41 GMT
This was my first CEF investment back in 2017 and made come cash.
I just wanted to add something more on UTG. The cash flow index has been heavily negative recently, and is bleeding heavily now. That means that a lot of people are cashing out of UTG. Look at the MACD too. The next pivot point could be as low as $23.5/sh. |
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Post by ECE Prof on Oct 7, 2022 19:38:31 GMT
UTG is touching the next support level. But, I expect it to go down below to 23.50.
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Post by johnsmith on Oct 9, 2022 1:57:24 GMT
April 2022, 30
- 85 million in Cash - around 3.5%
- 450 million in borrowings @ SOFR +0.65% (3.05 % + 0.8% on 20221207) total borrowings possible up to 650M, another 200 million available.
- Have been selling common shares when the market price is at a premium. Probably have over 10+ million shares more authorised for sale.
- Dividend earned from holdings 3.6 months, rest is cap gains.
- May 11, 2021, the advisory fee schedule will be as follows: 0.575% annually on assets upto $2.5 billion and 0.525% annual on assets over $2.5 billion
- Dividend Reinvestment - When net asset value is less than or equal to 95% of the closing market value on the payment date, the dollar amount of the Dividend will be divided by 95% of the closing market price per Common Share on the payment date. If, on the payment date for any Dividend, the net asset value per Common Share is greater than the closing market value plus estimated brokerage commissions, the Plan Administrator will invest the Dividend amount in Common Shares acquired on behalf of the participants in Open‐Market Purchases.
- 20220430 dividends earned were prorata for the year = 3.6 months worth of dividends, the other 8.4 months comes from cap gains.
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Post by chang on Oct 9, 2022 8:01:12 GMT
Delicious? IMO not even close. Look at the historic discounts: www.cefconnect.com/fund/UTG25-30% discount in 2008/9 would be nice, but I would at least wait for the 10% discounts which have prevailed frequently since then. May 2020 was a screaming sell. |
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Post by steelpony10 on Oct 9, 2022 10:36:41 GMT
What do people think?
use this: Take a look at the “since inception graph” at the overview tab on the CEF site. Next look at the rising historical distributions using the distributions tab. You can also look at UTG in Portfolio Visualizer since inception. 72/8%+ means you’ll get all your investment back in 9 years or so. Get cap gains somewhere else if that’s important to you. Using present actual facts, if it fits what you’re looking for “long term” then heck yah it’s a good starter CEF, utilities. If it drops more add to it if you want. If you plan to trade you’re on your own. I’m from the short term is forever an unknown camp and invest long term using present facts only not a crystal ball. I’ve invested in some that still have premiums from 2009-10. Maybe it’s because they’re viewed as well managed. Don’t apply single growth stock principles (PE’s) to CEF’s with maybe 100’s of bond holdings which fluctuate in value within a range over time. Apples to oranges and easy money for us to date. At least it can further diversify an income stream if CEF’s give you the shakes. Numerous periods with equities always gave me the willies. Of course you can just wait for equities to take the next step up in the unknown future and live on Ramen and Tang until then while your arteries continue to harden. |
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Post by racqueteer on Oct 9, 2022 11:59:07 GMT
Take a look at the “since inception graph” at the overview tab on the CEF site. Next look at the rising historical distributions using the distributions tab. You can also look at UTG in Portfolio Visualizer since inception. 72/8%+ means you’ll get all your investment back in 9 years or so. Get cap gains somewhere else if that’s important to you. FWIW, and just another way to look at it:
You lent the fund money. They paid you the money back in 9 years. The compounded 'interest' on that loan is held in the current value of the assets. THAT, as is often noted, HAS no 'value' until you sell, but continues NOW to pay you interest on the 9-year old loan at the agreed upon percentage (which may or may not have changed). Only in retrospect can one evaluate whether or not this worked out to be a good deal for you; as evidenced by the current selling value of the investment. As interest rates become higher and higher; it becomes less likely that this is a 'good' deal; though it MAY be.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2022 12:12:15 GMT
steelpony10, Your use of colorful language qualifies for the CC CEF investment outlook alternative honor roll, congratulations. Minor or major discrepancy is your position to buy and hold vs. his use of buy and sell timing.
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Post by ECE Prof on Oct 9, 2022 13:34:06 GMT
steelpony10 , Your use of colorful language qualifies for the CC CEF investment outlook alternative honor roll, congratulations. Minor or major discrepancy is your position to buy and hold vs. his use of buy and sell timing. Under the present circumstances, cash seems to be king. But, it seems to me that bond CEFs look even brighter as they provide decent income stream. Even though increasing the interest rate increases the cost of leverage, they can also make more money with increasing UNII. That provides a yield higher than the equity current growth. I do not think that it is not necessary to buy and sell, as a trader, to make money. I am with steelpony10 on this one. |
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Post by yogibearbull on Oct 9, 2022 13:45:05 GMT
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Post by uncleharley on Oct 9, 2022 14:53:53 GMT
The UTG chart indicates one might be able to catch a dead cat bounce at this time. That doesn't sound like a delicious snack.
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Post by steelpony10 on Oct 9, 2022 14:59:56 GMT
racqueteer, Sorry, you lost me with your post. Equities are a terrible hedge against inflation. When inflation rises equity values tumble for an unknown period. I learned from dealing with my parents and in laws portfolios to stockpile cash by generating excess income to needs. Kin to a savings account for inflation or a sudden leap in monthly requirements to prevent or delay spend down as long as possible. Once spend down is (was) unavoidable (LTC) steady income even during an inflationary period along with retained excess to needs income really slows down depletion of a portfolio. I can’t rely on Mr. Market. For ourselves we have stockpiled excess income from 2009-10 on to build up that treasure chest. We chose a large investment in CEF’s to be able to live comfortably even under these present market conditions without spend down and to try to be prepared for a worse case scenario as much ss possible in the future if our cash needs ever increase suddenly.
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Post by steelpony10 on Oct 9, 2022 15:09:11 GMT
steelpony10 , Your use of colorful language qualifies for the CC CEF investment outlook alternative honor roll, congratulations. Minor or major discrepancy is your position to buy and hold vs. his use of buy and sell timing. Under the present circumstances, cash seems to be king. But, it seems to me that bond CEFs look even brighter as they provide decent income stream. Even though increasing the interest rate increases the cost of leverage, they can also make more money with increasing UNII. That provides a yield higher than the equity current growth. I do not think that it is not necessary to buy and sell, as a trader, to make money. I am with steelpony10 on this one. That’s how I see it. We hold well managed VWAHX and PONAX and their monthly distributions are already rising. Sorta like a laddered CD. CEF’s have been around since the 1880’s? There’s a wealth of experience to handle the multiple inflationary periods since then.* * I’m not running the show professionals do. Amateur investors panic and algorithms see slowing stock earnings for a period. Two of the many moving parts when dealing with markets. I can’t pass that on to a spouse. |
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Post by mnfish on Oct 9, 2022 15:37:06 GMT
PortVis shows that $10k of UTG held since Mar 2004 paid income of $9,882 (w/o div reinvest) in 12 years and income of $6,010 since 2016 to YTD with a $3,668 price gain. $10k/$19.560k = 51% total return in 18 years w/63% of that return coming from cash payments.
To say that equities are a terrible hedge against inflation is just plain wrong.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Oct 9, 2022 15:42:50 GMT
Okay, I'll play a round. We have decided, I think, that the value of one's portfolio is what it is at 4 PM ET on any trading day. One could stretch that to include every second of a trading day. Thus, we can conclude that the value is a future "unknown," as steelpony10, has stated. Is it not also true that the income one derives from their investments is what it is at payment? Making it a relative "known". Of course, there are variations up and down, but they are minor compared to equity investments. For me, CEFs and higher equity dividends are a way to ensure a standard of life. Granted, perhaps at the expense of greater total return. I now have all my near-future income needs met with excess via my CEF positions, PIMIX, VZ, O, and a few others. Cliff (remember him) once said, "once I buy an income-producing product, I only look at the income and not the varying price." He went too deep into the NAT GAS pipeline for my comfort, but I expect he is living a comfortable life with good wine and scotch. My goal is to maintain and increase a standard of living, not to be the wealthiest person in the graveyard. Of course, I keep a significant position in traditional equities as well. Oh yeah, cash is a good thing! Take care! |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2022 16:23:47 GMT
PortVis shows that $10k of UTG held since Mar 2004 paid income of $9,882 (w/o div reinvest) in 12 years and income of $6,010 since 2016 to YTD with a $3,668 price gain. $10k/$19.560k = 51% total return in 18 years w/63% of that return coming from cash payments. To say that equities are a terrible hedge against inflation is just plain wrong. Equities and bonds aren't hedging inflation of the degree not experience here in the U.S. since the early 1980's without loss of principal as costs increase. Example, I bought an available half of a small round bread this week for $3.69. We will soon be following Marie Antoinette's reply, "Let them eat cake." |
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Post by yogibearbull on Oct 9, 2022 16:30:36 GMT
People should adjust their exposure to their risk tolerance. If one would panic and sell at the bottoms, they should stick with CDs, T-Bills/Notes.
Of course, IBD promoted/promotes 7% and out but that isn't for everybody. A related portfolio insurance strategy (to sell into declines) also ended badly.
BTW, I am comfortable with performance relative to my benchmark, and absolute performance can be whatever, and I don't care. That too isn't for everyone.
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Post by steelpony10 on Oct 9, 2022 16:57:11 GMT
PortVis shows that $10k of UTG held since Mar 2004 paid income of $9,882 (w/o div reinvest) in 12 years and income of $6,010 since 2016 to YTD with a $3,668 price gain. $10k/$19.560k = 51% total return in 18 years w/63% of that return coming from cash payments. To say that equities are a terrible hedge against inflation is just plain wrong. Portfolio visualizer assumes distribution reinvestment. Compare VTI to UTG which track similar results. I don’t think equities are keeping up with inflation at this time plus during Stagflation or 1999-2010. In fact both equities and income investments can go negative. But cash still can flow above one’s personal inflation rate with income holdings. I’m just pointing that out as an obvious difference to me. Others may spend down, flee to cash or wait which aren’t options for me. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2022 17:05:09 GMT
My portfolio has not changed much since selling the muni fund this year and making the house purchase with related expenses. I've held onto pimix and several cefs but don't reinvest dividends. The cef I attempted to buy this week is an equity one I held about two years ago. I don't have a benchmark or pay frequent attention to portfolio totals.
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Post by racqueteer on Oct 9, 2022 17:26:41 GMT
PortVis shows that $10k of UTG held since Mar 2004 paid income of $9,882 (w/o div reinvest) in 12 years and income of $6,010 since 2016 to YTD with a $3,668 price gain. $10k/$19.560k = 51% total return in 18 years w/63% of that return coming from cash payments. To say that equities are a terrible hedge against inflation is just plain wrong. Those numbers are problematic (or your use of the term “total return” is). It should be the total change in value divided by initial value or: ($19.56k - $10k)/$10k multiplied by 100. So, $9.56/10 = 0.956, which is a 95.6% total return over 12 years. That’s a little less than a 6% percent compounded return. As I said, at low bank rates, that’s fine perhaps. The rates go higher, and maybe not so much. By way of contrast, the market has averaged 10% PER YEAR. Over 12 years, that’s a total value of $31384.28; making the total return $21384.28/$10000 = 2.138428; a 213.8428% return. Not close; EVEN if you decided to take money out along the way, I doubt that you are better off. If you (steelpony) didn’t understand THIS post EITHER, I don’t know how to make it any clearer. |
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Post by roi2020 on Oct 9, 2022 18:11:21 GMT
Just a comment regarding equities as a hedge against inflation.
Stocks don't provide a direct inflation hedge in the short-to-medium term.
However, stock returns tend to be greater than inflation over the long-term.
Equities can be an effective tool to counter inflation over longer time periods.
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Post by steelpony10 on Oct 9, 2022 19:12:03 GMT
Just a comment regarding equities as a hedge against inflation.
Stocks don't provide a direct inflation hedge in the short-to-medium term.
However, stock returns tend to be greater than inflation over the long-term.
Equities can be an effective tool to counter inflation over longer time periods.
Correct. If you take the gains along the way that could work, 8-10% a year. Get them before they disappear. Just think about the work involved in that. This present scenario is what new retirees face now. Spend down a depleted portfolio or skinflint your way into a unknown future. Few want to spend down but living on the cheap might be appealing. Spending all those cap gains collected over the years might be an afterthought. If you have a more assured cash flow whatever you spent is replaced each month or quarter. Facts you can plan around. I don’t know if a retirement of 15-20 year is long term. Your might be cutting out a significant time period from that right now sitting on the sidelines. |
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Post by steelpony10 on Oct 9, 2022 19:17:46 GMT
racqueteer You RELATED to FD1000? READ some of his POSTS.
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Post by Chahta on Oct 9, 2022 19:35:47 GMT
PortVis shows that $10k of UTG held since Mar 2004 paid income of $9,882 (w/o div reinvest) in 12 years and income of $6,010 since 2016 to YTD with a $3,668 price gain. $10k/$19.560k = 51% total return in 18 years w/63% of that return coming from cash payments. To say that equities are a terrible hedge against inflation is just plain wrong. Portfolio visualizer assumes distribution reinvestment. Compare VTI to UTG which track similar results. I don’t think equities are keeping up with inflation at this time plus during Stagflation or 1999-2010. In fact both equities and income investments can go negative. But cash still can flow above one’s personal inflation rate with income holdings. I’m just pointing that out as an obvious difference to me. Others may spend down, flee to cash or wait which aren’t options for me. What is your reason for holding equities then? AMZN pays no dividends. You know I’m not criticizing just wondering. “If you take the gains along the way that could work, 8-10% a year. Get them before they disappear.” Exactly what I have done a couple of times. |
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Post by Chahta on Oct 9, 2022 19:41:33 GMT
People should adjust their exposure to their risk tolerance. If one would panic and sell at the bottoms, they should stick with CDs, T-Bills/Notes. Of course, IBD promoted/promotes 7% and out but that isn't for everybody. A related portfolio insurance strategy (to sell into declines) also ended badly. BTW, I am comfortable with performance relative to my benchmark, and absolute performance can be whatever, and I don't care. That too isn't for everyone. But is your performance TR or income? |
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Post by yogibearbull on Oct 9, 2022 19:57:54 GMT
%TR = %Dividend_yield + %Earnings_growth + %Change_in_P/E
So, TR. Income is a part of TR.
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Post by ECE Prof on Oct 9, 2022 20:36:25 GMT
The risk tolerance should be zero for 'Armageddon.' This is not a normal investment risk. The risk tolerance goes down to zero for this type of risk. You take your pick.
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Post by steelpony10 on Oct 9, 2022 20:47:31 GMT
Chahta , We’ve held MSFT and AAPL since about 1988 and AMZN about 12 years. I had about 10-15 growth stocks at one time starting in the late 80’s. I had ordinary earned income with that also. I’m just spreading out any remaining taxable capital gains. I don’t really want to sell in a down market either so like I said I added to AMZN while I wait. A couple more years is the plan maybe. If this drags on probably longer. I’m following a flexible plan as we age. This is our next step while cash accumulates.
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Post by yogibearbull on Oct 9, 2022 21:23:48 GMT
The risk tolerance should be zero for 'Armageddon.' This is not a normal investment risk. The risk tolerance goes down to zero for this type of risk. You take your pick. Fears/calls for Armageddon are the loudest when markets are falling and near lows. If zero risk tolerance means selling at/near the lows after accumulating higher, that would be a BIG mistake. I hope you didn't selloff all your positions (PDI, PDO, etc) into cash. See this post, Is it better to be early or late?11 minutes ago ReplyQuotelikePost OptionsPost by yogibearbull on 11 minutes ago Funny thing is that many are quite sure about the last 5-10% decline in the last leg of the bear market and the drums from brokerages/advisors to get out are loudest then. So, here we are back to around June low levels. If you lived through June, now should be a breeze. Hold your noses and start buying something, some now, some more 5-10% down. |
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