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Post by johnsmith on Oct 3, 2022 23:10:08 GMT
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Post by FD1000 on Oct 3, 2022 23:40:23 GMT
Hussman is a permabear for as long as I remember and why his funds didn't participate in the rally from 2009 to 2021. |
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Post by johnsmith on Oct 4, 2022 2:32:37 GMT
Hussman is a permabear for as long as I remember and why his funds didn't participate in the rally from 2009 to 2021.
True. Makes a lot of sense.
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Post by roi2020 on Oct 4, 2022 3:16:02 GMT
Mr. Hussman anticipated the market crashes associated with the dot-com bubble and the Global Financial Crisis.
However, he's been a perma-bear since the GFC and his funds' long-term performance was terrible last time I checked.
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Post by johnsmith on Dec 30, 2022 23:23:05 GMT
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 30, 2022 23:39:50 GMT
His first 2 sentences of his first paragraph say we shouldn't buy the current dip of the NASDAQ. My weekly charts of the Nasdaq composite and the Nasdaq 100 indicate a dbl bottom has been formed in the past month and momentum indicators continue to point up. Obviously I didn't read the rest of his prognostications.
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Post by Chahta on Dec 31, 2022 0:13:03 GMT
uncleharley, what did you make of the recovery in the last 1/2 hour today"
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Post by Deleted on Dec 31, 2022 0:17:52 GMT
I agree with Hussman's commentary. Valuations remain high, there will be periods of investor euphoria and disregard of tail-risk which lead to a long-period of bumpy moves downward. A trader may fare well, but most of us need to be cautious.
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 31, 2022 2:27:05 GMT
uncleharley , what did you make of the recovery in the last 1/2 hour today" It was a strongish close to a weak day and a weak week. The S&P and the nasdaq closed their opening gaps, but while the last 1/2 hr of trading volume was the heaviest of the day, it was not above average for the closing half hr. of any other day. I am hesitant to read anything, negative or positive, into this last week of trading. |
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Post by chang on Jul 4, 2023 14:24:04 GMT
Hussman is bearish now:
"The problem here is that the S&P 500 now stands just 8% below its 2022 bubble peak. Whether it gets back to that peak, or not, doesn’t really change where we are in the cycle. Our most historically reliable valuation measures stand at or above their 1929 and 2000 extremes, exceeding every level seen in history prior to October 2020, with the exception of a few weeks surrounding the 1929 bubble peak. Meanwhile, our measures of market internals remain unfavorable, interest rates are nowhere near zero, long-term bond yields – as we’ll see – remain inadequate, and recession risk is quickly increasing."
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc230619/ |
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Post by steadyeddy on Jul 4, 2023 14:54:48 GMT
Did this guy ever write about emerging bullish sentiment in the market?
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Post by richardsok on Jul 4, 2023 15:37:02 GMT
Hussman is bearish now:
"The problem here is that the S&P 500 now stands just 8% below its 2022 bubble peak. Whether it gets back to that peak, or not, doesn’t really change where we are in the cycle. Our most historically reliable valuation measures stand at or above their 1929 and 2000 extremes, exceeding every level seen in history prior to October 2020, with the exception of a few weeks surrounding the 1929 bubble peak. Meanwhile, our measures of market internals remain unfavorable, interest rates are nowhere near zero, long-term bond yields – as we’ll see – remain inadequate, and recession risk is quickly increasing."
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc230619/Thanks, chang. Benchmarks QQQ or VOO show little sign of technical tiring, though, at these elevations, I surmise any little unexpected economic surprise could send it a sudden shock. Small caps/ high div equity etfs (like XSHD) are much lower in relation to previous peaks, and may be a better opportunity (for new money) with its 8% dividend yield on present cost. As I've posted before, preferreds, ETFs and individuals, are also well beaten down with solid distributions -- much better than the money market and treasury funds so many people are leaping toward. Gold & broad commodities may also be approaching oppty territory. With war in Ukraine and fears of a nuclear "event", I'm surprised it's not far higher -- but then again, gold ALWAYS astounds me. Russia is growling -- again -- that it may not extend the "grain safe-shipping" truce with Ukraine. Agri could spike at any moment. |
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Post by chang on Jul 4, 2023 15:43:41 GMT
Gold & broad commodities may also be approaching oppty territory. With war in Ukraine and fears of a nuclear "event", I'm surprised it's not far higher -- but then again, gold ALWAYS astounds me. Regarding the war in the Ukraine, I am more concerned about it coming to an abrupt end. That would obviously be good for everything (except maybe oil), so I don't want to be caught holding an asset that thrives on the war continuing. I'm not sure what would be a good "post war" setup ... I guess large US and European contractors like Bechtel, Vinci, Bouygues, Hochtief, Strabag, etc. who will earn zillions from Ukraine reconstruction works. There's probably an ETF for that already... |
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Post by bigseal on Jul 4, 2023 15:57:31 GMT
Why would anyone care about what Hussman says or thinks. The guy is a total stooge.
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Post by steadyeddy on Jul 4, 2023 16:24:59 GMT
Why would anyone care about what Hussman says or thinks. The guy is a total stooge. A broken clock is correct twice a day... |
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Post by yakers on Jul 4, 2023 18:26:50 GMT
AFAIK he is a permabear with all the arguements of a permabear which are sometimes correct.
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Post by anitya on Jul 4, 2023 19:04:45 GMT
Hussman currently has two equity funds: growth and allocation. Growth fund is actually a long-short fund and its equity sleeve is in the M* Value style box. The fund over the past six years returned nearly zero and over the past 10 years returned a cumulative negative 35%.
Both funds together have an AUM of nearly $500M. Many moons ago, the Growth fund used to have AUM in billions. May be now it is all his own money.
In my personal experience, I lost too much money trying to avoid routine market dips. I think avoiding market drawdowns for big events like Covid, interest rate increases, QT, Russia war, etc. makes sense but not regular overbought conditions / valuation based market timing. After avoiding drawdowns for big events, one needs to be able to get back into the market and not get caught in inaction or get scared of regular market swings.
With the investing decisions I make about my own portfolio, I regularly ask myself if I would be able to attract customers as a money manager. May be John is not constrained by such thoughts.
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Post by Norbert on Jul 5, 2023 10:07:44 GMT
Hussman is bearish now:
"The problem here is that the S&P 500 now stands just 8% below its 2022 bubble peak. Whether it gets back to that peak, or not, doesn’t really change where we are in the cycle. Our most historically reliable valuation measures stand at or above their 1929 and 2000 extremes, exceeding every level seen in history prior to October 2020, with the exception of a few weeks surrounding the 1929 bubble peak. Meanwhile, our measures of market internals remain unfavorable, interest rates are nowhere near zero, long-term bond yields – as we’ll see – remain inadequate, and recession risk is quickly increasing."
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc230619/Hussman isn't wrong about valuations, though his analysis of "market internals" is weak. I went and read what Hussman wrote in April 2020, at the bottom of the Covid crash when the S&P 500 nearly touched 2500. He said the same thing that he's saying now: valuations were stretched on a historical basis. He stayed bearish.
Even back at the 2008-09 bottom, Hussman didn't see value. His fund has lost 40%+ since January 2009.
(Click to enlarge)
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Post by mnfish on Jul 5, 2023 11:55:08 GMT
Grantham is at it again also.
The "superbubble" in stocks, housing, and commodities will eventually burst, Jeremy Grantham says.
But the AI craze may keep stocks afloat for a couple more quarters, he told the Wall Street Journal.
Grantham's GMO has bet on bargain assets and wagered against some expensive growth stocks.
It has placed bets against several high-flying growth stocks, and loaded up on deep-value stocks that it expects to shine in the years ahead. The downturn will be a "wonderful, generational opportunity to make money," Ben Inker, the firm's co-head of asset allocation, told the WSJ.
Inker manages GMUEX - GMOs US Equity fund which is down 6.5% in the last 5 years and has $247mm in assets.
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Post by roi2020 on Jul 5, 2023 16:14:52 GMT
Jeremy Grantham was the featured guest on a recent Wealthtrack episode.
"Jeremy Grantham, investment legend and long-time value investor, warns of a bubble of 'epic proportions' in the bond, stock, housing, and commodities markets. Grantham, who has accurately predicted market bubbles in the past, believes that the current market is overvalued and due for a correction.
He cites three factors contributing to the bubble: low-interest rates, easy credit, and excessive speculation. Grantham also discusses his views on climate change, bursting market bubbles, and artificial intelligence.
He believes that climate change is the most important issue facing the world today and that artificial intelligence could have a major impact on the future of the economy."
Link
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Post by javajoe on Jul 6, 2023 14:51:27 GMT
I honestly don't understand who would give money to this guy. He's been wrong almost as long as I've been investing.
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