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Post by bizman on Sept 30, 2022 18:25:25 GMT
I'm not ready to pull the trigger yet, but I'm interested in PM and TROW, should the market gods give a fat pitch sometime soon.
I used to own PM and got out over $101 at the start of the Russia/Ukraine war. Has broken down lately. Currency is a huge headwind and they are wrestling with some hedge funds who want them to up their bid for Swedish Match. Also still dealing with the Russia/Ukraine mess. Will be listening to their earnings call on October 20th to see if an opportunity may be fairly close at hand. There is some thought that Swedish Match may help them expand distribution of iQos in the US.
With TROW, it's a well reputed active shop that has taken a 50% haircut given market dynamics and the related performance and asset outflows. 4.5% dividend and no debt. Any thoughts fundamental or technical would be welcome here.
Other ideas are welcome too.
At some point I'd also be interested in AMD, TXN, and/or SMH. Doesn't seem like we are there yet given the ugly action in the semiconductors with building inventories and slashed guidance?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2022 18:32:32 GMT
Biz - just adding to what I have. PM is one I have. I like just about everything I have except MMM which I think could get to the point of cutting. I like energy - CVX, Shel, EPD for long term holds. VZ looks like very good value. I will probably be adding to mid and small as that is where I am still light - mainly using ETFs for these. What about CSCO?
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Post by bizman on Sept 30, 2022 18:57:00 GMT
Hi Sara. I'm a bit embarrassed to admit that I'm not really sure exactly what it is that CSCO does. I know it's networking and such, but I don't know anything about the tech. In other words, is it a field where they have a really deep moat and competitors aren't nipping at their heels, or is it more of a "Red Queen" kind of business where they have to continuously pour in tons of capital to just stay slightly ahead of their competitors? It looks fine, but I don't know that I see anything terribly special there. And when I don't at least think I pretty much understand a business and the competitive dynamics and drivers of profitability, I usually put it in my too hard pile and move on.
I agree that VZ looks cheap, but I'm wondering similar things about their business too. Lots of debt, no growth, they've at least temporarily squandered their technological and reputational advantage with their network vis-a-vis T Mobile. They should complete the build out of their mid band, C band 5G network by the end of 2023 I think, but the hit to their reputation has happened. Losing subs in the mean time.
I'm kind of stunned how their management didn't see their current issues and do something about getting the C band spectrum somehow a few years ago. Their earnings calls are just happy talk about how they still have the best network.
At the same time, they will catch up in the next year, and hopefully they will have good deals so they don't bleed too many subs in the mean time. But I'm not the least bit impressed with Hans Vestberg and his management by denial strategy of the last several years. They do have tons of cash flow and the dividend looks safe. I want to feel better about it and will be listening to their earnings calls to see if management is responding to the realities or if it will just be happy talk and denial to infinity.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2022 19:11:37 GMT
You can look up what CSCO does on M* if interested or their web page. Like TXN they are wide mode, great capital allocation. Just an option. VZ - I have no concerns, but understand they have disappointed. Hence the price. Sounds like you have your parameters.
I've held BTI before so agree that PM is a better hold for my purposes. TROW I have looked at before, but no need to add more positions.
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Post by bizman on Sept 30, 2022 19:18:10 GMT
Speaking of M*, it's really sad how far the quality has fallen off there. Oh how I long for the days when Josh Peters was there setting a standard of excellence. Especially MDI has fallen off. They seem to continually flog Hanesbrands (HBI) and other fairly obvious (at least to me) value traps as having strong moats and profitability. They don't seem to care much about the quality of their product any more. I've always thought the quality of Seeking Alpha was hit or miss. M* is there too now, I'm afraid.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2022 19:30:30 GMT
Combine it with VL - you can get decent overviews of lines of business on M* still.
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Post by bizman on Sept 30, 2022 20:29:02 GMT
I do use Value Line too. It's just that a lot of it seems a mile wide and an inch deep. Not so much real insight beyond regurgitating press releases filled with buzzwords. My problem is I want to feel I really understand a business, rather than just have the same 15 second sketch as everyone else. Real, deep understanding isn't so easy to come by, at least for me.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2022 23:16:32 GMT
Earnings calls and financials - and the calls are just a point in time - you will have to listen to several years.
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Post by bizman on Sept 30, 2022 23:45:13 GMT
No question. That's why there is no way I could really know and follow 50 stocks. I can't do what Cramer pretends to do and know everything about everything. Since I can't do it I don't try.
That's why I'm using SCHD as a bogey. Also why I'm considering SMH if/when I move into semis (not for quite awhile probably). I need to find a few more reliable sector or factor ETFs that I feel I can rely on. Probably should have made this shift before.
I figure I should invest in individual stocks when I really think I have an edge. I have found that holdings I have been lukewarm about have not done as well, so I might as well leave that to an index or a pro who has a team who can keep track of several hundred holdings. I just don't have the bandwidth.
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