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Post by uncleharley on Sept 12, 2022 16:15:02 GMT
LOL. If anyone thinks he will leave because he is asked to leave, well that is not how dictators work. He will either leave in handcuffs or a body bag. Possibly they will find him in a bunker with a gunshot to the head. A larger probability is that Putin does not make it home after his thursday meeting.
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Post by ECE Prof on Sept 12, 2022 16:43:47 GMT
LOL. If anyone thinks he will leave because he is asked to leave, well that is not how dictators work. He will either leave in handcuffs or a body bag. Possibly they will find him in a bunker with a gunshot to the head.
Nothing can be clearer than this. I believe that ST. Petersburg municipal officials also have called for his resignation. I read a Yahoo news yesterday that the Pro-Russian bloggers were calling for the heads of the "generals." I bet that it was for Putin's head. Who knows. All dictators face a bad end for themselves and their countries.
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Post by steelpony10 on Sept 12, 2022 18:25:47 GMT
There are three ruling parties running Russia, the oligarchs who sacked Russia after the USSR fell apart (falling out of windows now), the government (Putin) and organized crime. I’d be careful about wishing for a quick and easy solution. Putin probably can fall out a window only when a more advantageous solution for all groups is brokered.*
*Declare that all the Nazi’s are dead or have fled and your done.😳
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Post by chang on Sept 12, 2022 18:47:45 GMT
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Post by steelpony10 on Sept 12, 2022 19:34:00 GMT
chang , Ok I corrected that. I reasoned some might be interested in that info on a Putin disposal thread. I thought Off Topic wasn’t about investing (stocks) or politics.
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Post by anitya on Sept 12, 2022 20:34:25 GMT
EWG - iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG) has moved up 8% in 5 days, including 2.8% today (though the one year chart looks ugly). May be most of the downside from the war is already priced in.
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Post by uncleharley on Sept 12, 2022 20:47:51 GMT
EWG - iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG) has moved up 8% in 5 days, including 2.8% today (though the one year chart looks ugly). May be most of the downside from the war is already priced in. All of the chart indicators have turned bullish on the daily chart for EWG. Something is happening there.
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Post by ECE Prof on Sept 12, 2022 20:54:35 GMT
The most efficient market is right here. I am not fooled by any other market, except for a short trade because "the pasture on the other shore is greener." This is a proverb in my mother tongue. But, then, I am not a trader.
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Post by Norbert on Sept 12, 2022 21:24:46 GMT
EWG - iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG) has moved up 8% in 5 days, including 2.8% today (though the one year chart looks ugly). May be most of the downside from the war is already priced in. All of the chart indicators have turned bullish on the daily chart for EWG. Something is happening there. Looking at the DAX chart, I just see a technical bounce (so far). Of course, don't forget to add in the strong Euro bounce. EWG isn't hedged for currency fluctuations.
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Post by chang on Sept 13, 2022 7:06:49 GMT
I haven’t been following Germany per se, BUT I have a short list of euro stocks I might buy, and the list includes Mercedes Benz MBG.DE (9% dividend!). Any specific thoughts on this stock would be appreciated.
Keeping on topic, Russians looove Mercedes, so an end to Putin would probably be a positive for the stock, assuming that they’re not selling to Russia right now.
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Post by bb2 on Sept 14, 2022 1:09:03 GMT
Biggest threat to my bearish stance is Putin's demise. Bring it on. An epic pop would ensue.
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Post by ECE Prof on Sept 14, 2022 1:37:17 GMT
There are two important new developments on Putin and Russia today.
War is probably finished. Even the Modi and Xi may advise Putin tomorrow about his moves in the SCO meeting. Modi has been suggesting talks from the beginning. Putin lost even that game now.
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Post by steadyeddy on Sept 14, 2022 2:27:55 GMT
There are two important new developments on Putin and Russia today.
War is probably finished. Even the Modi and Xi may advise Putin tomorrow about his moves in the SCO meeting. Modi has been suggesting talks from the beginning. Putin lost even that game now.
ECE Prof, this will be welcome news in more ways than one !!
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Post by Norbert on Sept 14, 2022 7:09:47 GMT
There are two important new developments on Putin and Russia today.
War is probably finished. Even the Modi and Xi may advise Putin tomorrow about his moves in the SCO meeting. Modi has been suggesting talks from the beginning. Putin lost even that game now.
ECE Prof , this will be welcome news in more ways than one !!
Unfortunately, Richardson is in Moscow to negotiate the release of US prisoners, not negotiate an end to the war. As for Scholz, he's been pushing for a cease fire since the beginning.
I do not see that Putin will accept defeat and don't see that the Ukraine would be willing to negotiate any loss of sovereign territory.
However, fred495 may be on to something in suggest a return to the status quo ante. That has been Kissinger's suggestion also. Fred's Wikipedia quote:
"In May 1997, Russia and Ukraine signed the Peace and Friendship Treaty, ruling out Moscow's territorial claims to Ukraine. This was followed by the Partition Treaty on the Status and Conditions of the Black Sea Fleet on 28 May 1997. A separate agreement established the terms of a long-term lease of land, facilities, and resources in Sevastopol and the Crimea by Russia. Russia kept its naval base, with around 15,000 troops stationed in Sevastopol."
N.
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Post by steadyeddy on Sept 14, 2022 11:45:40 GMT
ECE Prof , this will be welcome news in more ways than one !!
Unfortunately, Richardson is in Moscow to negotiate the release of US prisoners, not negotiate an end to the war. As for Scholz, he's been pushing for a cease fire since the beginning.
I do not see that Putin will accept defeat and don't see that the Ukraine would be willing to negotiate any loss of sovereign territory.
However, fred495 may be on to something in suggest a return to the status quo ante. That has been Kissinger's suggestion also. Fred's Wikipedia quote:
"In May 1997, Russia and Ukraine signed the Peace and Friendship Treaty, ruling out Moscow's territorial claims to Ukraine. This was followed by the Partition Treaty on the Status and Conditions of the Black Sea Fleet on 28 May 1997. A separate agreement established the terms of a long-term lease of land, facilities, and resources in Sevastopol and the Crimea by Russia. Russia kept its naval base, with around 15,000 troops stationed in Sevastopol."
N.
Western media has been reporting that Ukraine has reclaimed a whole swath of areas that Russia claimed to have occupied. If that is true, I think Putin will have motivation to save face and make a deal. Given the supposedly poor morale and equipment on Russia's side, I do not see how Mr. P can continue to fight a ground war. And let us hope he doesn't go nuclear.
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Post by Norbert on Sept 14, 2022 16:10:03 GMT
Snippets:
It goes to show how important China’s western backyard is to the country. Washington and London are attempting to pivot to the Indo-Pacific to respond to Chinese influence in the South and East China seas; what they’ve failed to focus on is Beijing’s alliance-building in the mountains and deserts to the west.
On the agenda this week: the resumption of trade and infrastructure building post-pandemic; the possible addition of new members into the group (Iran and Belarus); and the security threat posed by an unstable Afghanistan.
Putin will also be there. He will no doubt lobby for more emphatic support for his war in Ukraine. He’s unlikely to get it: in 2008, SCO member states refused to endorse his invasion of Georgia. So far, China has watched the war in Ukraine, vulture-like, happy to take advantage of cheaper Russian gas while mostly going along with western sanctions. It’s unlikely to leave the sidelines. |my bold]
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation will, this week, be attended by Eurasian leaders, including Turkey’s Erdogan to India’s Modi, a sign of China’s success at building its own members’ clubs. Neither are exactly Beijing’s friends, but their shared interests in more regional trade and stamping out extremism are pulling them further to the east. In particular, everybody wants to talk about how to contain a Taliban-led Afghanistan. That western withdrawal from Afghanistan was supposed to free up resources for America to deal with China’s rise. But instead it has revealed ignorance of China’s geopolitical aims in central Asia – a set of objectives that President Xi is now wasting no time in pursuing.
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Post by richardsok on Sept 15, 2022 11:06:18 GMT
For an engaging and thoughtful analysis of Putin, today's Russian political mood, the botched(?) assassination of Darya Dugin and implications for the future, try the link. In 1990 as Communism was collapsing, the Russian people were overwhelming in their admiration for the West and democracy. Thirty years on that admiration has decayed into a wide-spread anti-democratic sense of betrayal and bitterness. Darya's car-bombing MIGHT have been an inside job as her father had been publicly prodding that Putin wasn't fascist enough. Author predicts: if Putin survives in power, in ten years he will be as popular in Europe and America as in Russia. www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-Zk7K9Un2U
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Post by uncleharley on Sept 15, 2022 11:59:04 GMT
Based on some sketchy recent health reports and Putins age, It seems unlikely that he will live another 10 yrs. Any trade agreements that are negotiated with Russia should be interesting. Especially the financing that will be needed to facilitate them.
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Post by steadyeddy on Sept 15, 2022 12:12:47 GMT
Snippets:
It goes to show how important China’s western backyard is to the country. Washington and London are attempting to pivot to the Indo-Pacific to respond to Chinese influence in the South and East China seas; what they’ve failed to focus on is Beijing’s alliance-building in the mountains and deserts to the west.
On the agenda this week: the resumption of trade and infrastructure building post-pandemic; the possible addition of new members into the group (Iran and Belarus); and the security threat posed by an unstable Afghanistan.
Putin will also be there. He will no doubt lobby for more emphatic support for his war in Ukraine. He’s unlikely to get it: in 2008, SCO member states refused to endorse his invasion of Georgia. So far, China has watched the war in Ukraine, vulture-like, happy to take advantage of cheaper Russian gas while mostly going along with western sanctions. It’s unlikely to leave the sidelines. |my bold]
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation will, this week, be attended by Eurasian leaders, including Turkey’s Erdogan to India’s Modi, a sign of China’s success at building its own members’ clubs. Neither are exactly Beijing’s friends, but their shared interests in more regional trade and stamping out extremism are pulling them further to the east. In particular, everybody wants to talk about how to contain a Taliban-led Afghanistan. That western withdrawal from Afghanistan was supposed to free up resources for America to deal with China’s rise. But instead it has revealed ignorance of China’s geopolitical aims in central Asia – a set of objectives that President Xi is now wasting no time in pursuing.
China is not on a stable footing at the moment: COVID lockdowns and real-estate collapse along with common prosperity goals. First those issues need to be addressed and then they can do other things. India is not fond of all the tricks China played in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and other places... unlikely they would go along EXCEPT to keep enemies closer. Putin needs to deliver on his promise of Ukraine (unlikely) before he does anything more. Also, Afghanistan/Taliban is not a threat to South-East Asia... their sights are set elsewhere.
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Post by Norbert on Sept 15, 2022 14:57:15 GMT
For an engaging and thoughtful analysis of Putin, today's Russian political mood, the botched(?) assassination of Darya Dugin and implications for the future, try the link. In 1990 as Communism was collapsing, the Russian people were overwhelming in their admiration for the West and democracy. Thirty years on that admiration has decayed into a wide-spread anti-democratic sense of betrayal and bitterness. Darya's car-bombing MIGHT have been an inside job as her father had been publicly prodding that Putin wasn't fascist enough. Author predicts: if Putin survives in power, in ten years he will be as popular in Europe and America as in Russia. www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-Zk7K9Un2UPersonally, I think it would have been wiser for President Biden to have not opened Pandora's box.
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Post by ECE Prof on Sept 15, 2022 15:20:28 GMT
"Personally, I think it would have been wiser for President Biden to have not opened Pandora's box."
+1. 100%.
UN chief, after taking to Putin yesterday, says that the war is not over. Putin tried to negotiate on the Donbass region only. Zelensky did not want to give in. Besides, the NATO wanted to extend to the east. I do not think that it would happen. Now, we have a big mess, with all this inflation to contend with.
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Post by ECE Prof on Sept 16, 2022 20:33:41 GMT
Putin seems not to back down on Ukraine. But he is not getting the backing of China and India. So, he is losing ground of the political support from them.
Conflicting reports. The line on the second one is quoted by several news sources, including WaPo, NYTimes, and many western newspapers too. One says, "Modi told Putin face to face."
That means that he would lose political support within Russia. Germans have taken over all the Russian energy companies now and lost economically also. Slow death now.
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Post by johnsmith on Sept 20, 2022 12:50:53 GMT
I'd say Putin's days are not numbered. He has extremely high popularity within Russia.
This part about the west made for interesting reading: "You have probably heard about 300,000 tonnes of Russian fertiliser stuck in European ports; our companies are saying they are ready to provide it for free – just unblock and release it, and we will donate it to the poorest countries and to developing markets. But they are still holding it, and this is absolutely astonishing.
They do not want Russia to earn money – but we are not making a profit by giving away fertiliser. I just do not get what they are doing. What is the purpose of all this? There has been so much talk about providing help to the poorest countries, but exactly the opposite is actually happening.
I have the impression – and this is particularly true for European countries – that these former colonial powers are still living in the paradigm of colonial philosophy, and they are used to living at the expense of others."
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Post by ECE Prof on Sept 20, 2022 13:48:26 GMT
" that these former colonial powers are still living in the paradigm of colonial philosophy, and they are used to living at the expense of others." +1. Amen to that. However, they are facing big challenges on that front, quietly, but surely happening under their feet. They are paying high price for that with such a high rate of inflation, negative GDP growth, because no one would give them free or low cost any more. Here is an example.
The inquiry minds are asking the question: Where do they get the oil? In fact, the oil countries are not willing to sell them at cheaper prices. Euro and pound are sinking. So, there are currency problems also because the W. Europe does not have enough money also. That also reduces the manufacturing, and they do not have much to sell others. I can keep on going on their economic malaise. The "US" factor has failed miserably.
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