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Post by uncleharley on Sept 10, 2022 13:22:29 GMT
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Post by Chahta on Sept 10, 2022 13:49:06 GMT
In that part of the world an “official request for removal” is poisoning or other forms of request. |
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Post by ECE Prof on Sept 10, 2022 15:10:41 GMT
Even those who wanted or suggested negotiations have been poisoned and murdered (falling from a window). So, I won't any bet on these news stories because this thug will do anything to keep him there. But, there could be some coup also. Who knows? He is travelling to Uzbek next week to meet Xi and Modi there, in the SCO meeting.
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Post by win1177 on Sept 10, 2022 15:46:59 GMT
His removal (one way or the other), cannot come fast enough, IMHO. Recently (past ~10 years), he has shown that he has ambitions to restore Russia to the old “Soviet Empire”, with its huge military might and state owned businesses. He appears to want this to be his “legacy”, and taking over Ukraine is one of many “steps” in that direction. If he does succeed in “annexing” Ukraine by force, his next steps will be Poland, the Baltic states, Kazakhstan, Georgia, etc., etc. He’s very dangerous in my opinion, and is gambling that the US will not want to risk direct warfare with Russia. I hope sensible people in Russia recognize the dangerous moves he is making and “replace” him one way or the other. Win |
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Post by uncleharley on Sept 11, 2022 12:19:34 GMT
The recent reported advances of the Ukrainian Army seem to indicate an inability by the Russians to complete their war in the Ukraine. Could this be a final blow to the Putin regime or might it be ignored by the Russian elite?
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Post by Norbert on Sept 11, 2022 12:42:50 GMT
His removal (one way or the other), cannot come fast enough, IMHO. Recently (past ~10 years), he has shown that he has ambitions to restore Russia to the old “Soviet Empire”, with its huge military might and state owned businesses. He appears to want this to be his “legacy”, and taking over Ukraine is one of many “steps” in that direction. If he does succeed in “annexing” Ukraine by force, his next steps will be Poland, the Baltic states, Kazakhstan, Georgia, etc., etc. He’s very dangerous in my opinion, and is gambling that the US will not want to risk direct warfare with Russia. I hope sensible people in Russia recognize the dangerous moves he is making and “replace” him one way or the other. Win
We've covered this ground before. There's no question that Putin is ruthless, paranoid, and corrupt. But, the causes of the war are more complex.
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Post by uncleharley on Sept 11, 2022 13:34:26 GMT
I was hoping for a comment on the potential ending of the war rather than the causes. News headlines about Russian troops retreating are easy to find this morning, but very little is being said about how far they might retreat. What about the seeming chaos in Russia? Might the seeming turn in events trigger an euphoric advance in our domestic stock market?? EDIT: Should I cover my shorts? Edit2; www.newsweek.com/russian-inaction-helping-ukraines-brilliant-maneuver-retired-general-1741774 If the Russians are not fighting back, is there no one in charge of their Army? |
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Post by johntaylor on Sept 11, 2022 13:57:29 GMT
Ran across a comedy article saying, if the US gives more billions, we should make Ukraine the 51st state
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Post by acksurf on Sept 11, 2022 14:11:19 GMT
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Post by ECE Prof on Sept 11, 2022 15:23:35 GMT
I was hoping for a comment on the potential ending of the war rather than the causes. News headlines about Russian troops retreating are easy to find this morning, but very little is being said about how far they might retreat. What about the seeming chaos in Russia? Might the seeming turn in events trigger an euphoric advance in our domestic stock market?? EDIT: Should I cover my shorts? Edit2; www.newsweek.com/russian-inaction-helping-ukraines-brilliant-maneuver-retired-general-1741774 If the Russians are not fighting back, is there no one in charge of their Army? I assume that Putin has something in his sleeves. There is going to be the SCO meeting in a few days in the Tashkent (Central Asia), where Xi, Modi, and Putin, along with seven other heads of states. Xi ordered the Chinese troops to disengage in the Indian border of Ladakh before this meeting. We may not even know what they discuss bilaterally, except for some releases for the press. Putin and Xi are not going to telegraph Biden and NATO what they are planning. But, I know one thing for sure. The SCO countries do not like or want Biden's NATO expansion plan. So, I do not think that Zelensky should celebrate yet. I do mot trust the western media 100%, especially CNN and the like. They all want clicks.
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Post by mozart522 on Sept 11, 2022 15:39:39 GMT
War is always good for the economy here, and if we can't start one we know we will never win, then we will just jump into someone else's. We can never let the war machine stop producing or we will be vulnerable.
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Post by steelpony10 on Sept 11, 2022 16:12:37 GMT
Russia can’t sustain a war. Lousy outdated equipment, army and tactics. Putin for some reason thought this would be an easy grab. The one thing they do have is a zillion nukes hopefully slowly decaying. The best he can do is negotiate out of it now. The standard “save face”. Perception management at it’s best, creating convincing alternate truths. Same as being practiced in the U.S., Iran and North Korea.
Without the cold war the world is destabilized, one thing after another. As far as nukes anything headed for the U.S. invites an immediate launch of 10 as a response.
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Post by ECE Prof on Sept 11, 2022 16:34:44 GMT
"Lousy outdated equipment, army and tactics."
+1. Amen. Besides, it is a poor country. I agree.
But, Putin has a potent weapon – energy. He has driven the Europe to its knees. Look at the inflation rates in many of the European countries. Even, if the war is over, it will take long time for the Europe to recover because Russia has covered its base well with the cooperation of the oil countries. So, how long this coalition of oil countries and the Asian countries can hold on without any collateral damage to their economies is the 64000 dollar question. The jury is out there because the geopolitics keeps changing every day without spending a lot of money on wars. This is not an apology for the thug Putin, but a reality.
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Post by uncleharley on Sept 11, 2022 16:49:51 GMT
That Blog is well written by someone with exceptional credentials. However, if Putin had a plan for a counterattck it would seem unlikely that He would let his troops leave any equipment behind and the withdrawal does not seem to be planned. My thought is that the Russians are losing and that is bullish for the U S Defense industry. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2022 16:56:40 GMT
I do not have much interest in domestic or international politics. And war is an instrument of geopolitics.
But some observations,
US media likes to demonize Putin. We should not form our assessment based on US media reports alone. Rest of the world may see things very differently.
Is Ukraine war, Putin's waterloo, that is an interesting question, time will tell.
But is it turning out good for us (US) geopolitically and economically?
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Post by fred495 on Sept 11, 2022 17:58:43 GMT
I was hoping for a comment on the potential ending of the war rather than the causes. [...] Might the seeming turn in events trigger an euphoric advance in our domestic stock market?? EDIT: Should I cover my shorts?
Well said, uh. Your questions are the only ones that should really matter on an investment site.
Fred
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Post by steelpony10 on Sept 11, 2022 19:41:50 GMT
uncleharley , Well I thought I sorta gave my opinion. This may be a long dragged out affair along with Fed moves, T, worldwide inflation (our trading partners), the coming 2 year presidential cluster (f), the fight over abortion rights and more unknowns to come. It’s getting colder out not warmer yet, no shorts.* *I bet a yard of kielbasa October is a disaster. I’ll be full of something then for sure.
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Post by Norbert on Sept 11, 2022 20:15:31 GMT
Another strange thing is the fact that Putin has sent King Charles condolences about his mother's death, this despite Charles having compared him to Hitler. Plus he wishes King Charles great success for the future.
This isn't exactly what you'd expect from a leader whose army is being routed in Ukraine. I don't get it.
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Post by uncleharley on Sept 11, 2022 21:34:39 GMT
It is probably impossible to sort this all out in real time.
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Post by ECE Prof on Sept 11, 2022 22:06:00 GMT
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Post by yogibearbull on Sept 11, 2022 22:11:47 GMT
Putin will be known/remembered as "ruiner". He may not win, but he can ruin things/countries.
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Post by anitya on Sept 11, 2022 23:44:40 GMT
Sunday night Putin hit critical civilian infrastructure in the withdrawn areas with cruise missiles. He will either hold territory or make it uninhabitable. This has been MO everywhere his military has operated. I think the war will continue until Ukraine surrenders (negotiated of course for appearance) or somebody takes out Putin. Russians have no say in the matter - it is easy to fall in love with a dictator but not so easy to contain him.
IMO, if one wants to make investment choices directly linked to the war, I would focus on European risk assets and / or Euro - either short them or go long. The war does not have an overwhelming effect on US risk assets like it has on European risk assets or currency.
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Post by steadyeddy on Sept 12, 2022 0:47:10 GMT
I do not have much interest in domestic or international politics. And war is an instrument of geopolitics. But some observations, US media likes to demonize Putin. We should not form our assessment based on US media reports alone. Rest of the world may see things very differently. Is Ukraine war, Putin's waterloo, that is an interesting question, time will tell. But is it turning out good for us (US) geopolitically and economically? Putin's war is not beneficial to global economy - except to Russia. They continue to sell oil to friendly countries such as China and India which really need that cheap oil. The price cap that the US is pursuing helps both China and India since it makes oil even cheaper than what they are paying. The ultimate losers (economically) are the NATO countries. None of the NATO countries have the guts to directly engage in a war with Putin, and he knows that. I wish we had a President that can keep enemies closer (come to think of it, one of the past Presidents comes to mind). |
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Post by ECE Prof on Sept 12, 2022 2:07:29 GMT
The price cap of G7, just like sanctions, are not working. See, Russia dominates OPEC+, and Saudis and Iranians know it. So, Russia has some power. Saudis and UAE will not mind cutting the quota to keep the prices high. They have already accepted to cut the extra 100,000 barrels this month. |
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Post by rhythmmethod on Sept 12, 2022 2:44:55 GMT
Another strange thing is the fact that Putin has sent King Charles condolences about his mother's death, this despite Charles having compared him to Hitler. Plus he wishes King Charles great success for the future.
This isn't exactly what you'd expect from a leader whose army is being routed in Ukraine. I don't get it.
Putin is a combination of mad and brilliant. Maybe more mad at this juncture. I would not expect his actions to make sense. |
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Post by chang on Sept 12, 2022 9:52:16 GMT
That Blog is well written by someone with exceptional credentials. However, if Putin had a plan for a counterattck it would seem unlikely that He would let his troops leave any equipment behind and the withdrawal does not seem to be planned. My thought is that the Russians are losing and that is bullish for the U S Defense industry. Russia losing will probably be bullish for everything. I wonder whether the world stock markets will jump on any of these events: 1) Putin resigns / removed; 2) A real cease-fire / compromise / peace treaty signed; 3) Russia wins hands down, and hostilities cease; 4) Ukraine wins hands down, and hostilities cease. Alternatively, the conflict has been dragging on for months, and fatigue has set in. It's not news any more. What could happen to trigger the markets to go any lower? Hence, focusing only on Russia, there is more upside than downside. (Of course, there are other things going on: inflation, recession potential, continuing supply chain issues, etc.). All in all, I remain heabily invested in equity, and am watching all the time for dips in the assets I want to add to. |
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Post by Norbert on Sept 12, 2022 10:13:21 GMT
That Blog is well written by someone with exceptional credentials. However, if Putin had a plan for a counterattck it would seem unlikely that He would let his troops leave any equipment behind and the withdrawal does not seem to be planned. My thought is that the Russians are losing and that is bullish for the U S Defense industry. Russia losing will probably be bullish for everything. I wonder whether the world stock markets will jump on any of these events: 1) Putin resigns / removed; 2) A real cease-fire / compromise / peace treaty signed; 3) Russia wins hands down, and hostilities cease; 4) Ukraine wins hands down, and hostilities cease. Alternatively, the conflict has been dragging on for months, and fatigue has set in. It's not news any more. What could happen to trigger the markets to go any lower?Hence, focusing only on Russia, there is more upside than downside. (Of course, there are other things going on: inflation, recession potential, continuing supply chain issues, etc.). All in all, I remain heavily invested in equity, and am watching all the time for dips in the assets I want to add to.
It's low probability, but the markets would obviously be unhappy if Putin resorted to tactical nuclear weapons when he sees no other way out. The US is furnishing some very effective weapons and intelligence to Ukraine.
Or if China blockades Taiwan.
Putin has already played the natural gas card.
My problem is that I don't see how the endgame would work. The Ukraine isn't going to let Russia keep the Crimea and Russia isn't going to give up its Black Sea port.
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Post by fred495 on Sept 12, 2022 11:45:09 GMT
Norbert said: "My problem is that I don't see how the endgame would work. The Ukraine isn't going to let Russia keep the Crimea and Russia isn't going to give up its Black Sea port."
They will probably find a compromise along the lines of the previous arrangement, as quoted from Wikipedia below:
"In May 1997, Russia and Ukraine signed the Peace and Friendship Treaty, ruling out Moscow's territorial claims to Ukraine. This was followed by the Partition Treaty on the Status and Conditions of the Black Sea Fleet on 28 May 1997. A separate agreement established the terms of a long-term lease of land, facilities, and resources in Sevastopol and the Crimea by Russia. Russia kept its naval base, with around 15,000 troops stationed in Sevastopol."
Remember that Ukraine had offered a compromise on Crimea prior to the discovery of the Russian atrocities in Bucha and Irpin in the spring.
Fred
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Post by uncleharley on Sept 12, 2022 12:21:14 GMT
Good Morning!!!! Oil is up, the buck is down, & and the major domestic stock indexes are poised to open higher. I am probably going to cover my shorts near the opening bell. Ukraine is a sideshow.
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Post by Chahta on Sept 12, 2022 15:14:59 GMT
LOL. If anyone thinks he will leave because he is asked to leave, well that is not how dictators work. He will either leave in handcuffs or a body bag. Possibly they will find him in a bunker with a gunshot to the head. |
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