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Post by mozart522 on Aug 3, 2022 21:36:44 GMT
7% more and I'll be matching inflation  |
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Post by ECE Prof on Aug 3, 2022 21:43:41 GMT
7% more and I'll be matching inflation LOL. That is a good one.
It looks like that the inflation will ease now. The gas price has come down so much in my neighborhood, it is below $3.30 today. Walmart has slashed the prices due to excessive inventory. Amazon wants me to order at cheaper prices because I am their best customer (I assume). I also use their credit card, and they make money. Oil price went down below $90 today. Interest rate has gone down, easing FED fear now. So, market is zooming back now.
So, what inflation?
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Post by mozart522 on Aug 3, 2022 22:18:59 GMT
7% more and I'll be matching inflation LOL. That is a good one.
It looks like that the inflation will ease now. The gas price has come down so much in my neighborhood, it is below $3.30 today. Walmart has slashed the prices due to excessive inventory. Amazon wants me to order at cheaper prices because I am their best customer (I assume). I also use their credit card, and they make money. Oil price went down below $90 today. Interest rate has gone down, easing FED fear now. So, market is zooming back now.
So, what inflation?
We will see. I read today that experts who deal in inflation derivatives has said it will come down to 8.75 for the next three reports July, Aug, Sept.) I think the FED will go .75 but the market is thinking .50 and some pillow talk. I'm staying in cash and treasuries for the time being. At best, IMHO, we have another few weeks of rally. |
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Post by mozart522 on Aug 3, 2022 22:22:25 GMT
Consumer debt is very high now. When they stop spending: stagflation.
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 3, 2022 22:37:38 GMT
Consumer debt is very high now. When they stop spending: stagflation. +1. FZDXX=Fidelity MM, $100K min, is now at 2.08% 6-12 months treasuries looks better and closer now :-) ECE Prof: rates went down, I would not be surprise if they go up, nothing is easy. Attachments:
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Post by ECE Prof on Aug 3, 2022 22:59:07 GMT
"Consumer debt is very high now."
That is the American way, LOL. Spend, spend, and spend…
It is ok to have debt, because nobody can collect your debt, after you are gone. So, as long as you live, consumer debt is not a biggie. Look at our Federal government. They owe trillions. Does it worry? No, because, that is the American way, shown by our government.
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Post by Chahta on Aug 3, 2022 23:17:07 GMT
"Consumer debt is very high now." That is the American way, LOL. Spend, spend, and spend… It is ok to have debt, because nobody can collect your debt, after you are gone. So, as long as you live, consumer debt is not a biggie. Look at our Federal government. They owe trillions. Does it worry? No, because, that is the American way, shown by our government. Wrong. It is the STUPID GOVERNMENT OF American way. If you took control of my check book you would spend it all and then overdraft because you don't have to pay it back. |
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Post by Chahta on Aug 3, 2022 23:21:47 GMT
LOL. That is a good one.
It looks like that the inflation will ease now. The gas price has come down so much in my neighborhood, it is below $3.30 today. Walmart has slashed the prices due to excessive inventory. Amazon wants me to order at cheaper prices because I am their best customer (I assume). I also use their credit card, and they make money. Oil price went down below $90 today. Interest rate has gone down, easing FED fear now. So, market is zooming back now.
So, what inflation?
We will see. I read today that experts who deal in inflation derivatives has said it will come down to 8.75 for the next three reports July, Aug, Sept.) I think the FED will go .75 but the market is thinking .50 and some pillow talk. I'm staying in cash and treasuries for the time being. At best, IMHO, we have another few weeks of rally. If they are "experts" why didn't they call 9% inflation in January 2022? Treasuries and cash are OK, but you are missing a muni bull market. Looking forward to the rally in equities petering out. I want to buy. |
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Post by ECE Prof on Aug 3, 2022 23:22:48 GMT
"Consumer debt is very high now." That is the American way, LOL. Spend, spend, and spend… It is ok to have debt, because nobody can collect your debt, after you are gone. So, as long as you live, consumer debt is not a biggie. Look at our Federal government. They owe trillions. Does it worry? No, because, that is the American way, shown by our government. Wrong. It is the STUPID GOVERNMENT OF American way. If you took control of my check book you would spend it all and then overdraft because you don't have to pay it. Gary Do not blame me. I am not the one. I am buying more and more because they are cheaper now. Furthermore, I borrowed $1000 from HELOC, and bought TQQQ today. I will pay HELOC from my SS pay next week. I do not have any debt.
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Post by Chahta on Aug 3, 2022 23:24:58 GMT
ECE Prof , I gotta salute you. For an "old guy" you are a pretty agressive investor. I could buy TQQQ and kill the rally.
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 3, 2022 23:37:24 GMT
"Consumer debt is very high now." That is the American way, LOL. Spend, spend, and spend… It is ok to have debt, because nobody can collect your debt, after you are gone. So, as long as you live, consumer debt is not a biggie. Look at our Federal government. They owe trillions. Does it worry? No, because, that is the American way, shown by our government. A private individual isn't the same as the gov. People who have too much debt, eventually screw up their credit, may go to bankruptcy, and life can be a lot harder. It's true that Americans spent higher %, after all, we have the best marketing machine, and easy money from credit card. |
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 3, 2022 23:42:20 GMT
ECE Prof , I gotta salute you. For an "old guy" you are a pretty agressive investor. I could buy TQQQ and kill the rally. Easy call when you are older than 80 + lots of money + pension & SS that covers expenses and more. The most problematic is when you are 60-75 years old and retired without a pension. |
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bf22
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Post by bf22 on Aug 4, 2022 0:22:46 GMT
ECE Prof , I gotta salute you. For an "old guy" you are a pretty agressive investor. I could buy TQQQ and kill the rally. Easy call when you are older than 80 + lots of money + pension & SS that covers expenses and more. The most problematic is when you are 60-75 years old and retired without a pension. Hey, that's me (63). What should I be doing differently? |
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Post by ECE Prof on Aug 4, 2022 0:43:07 GMT
ECE Prof , I gotta salute you. For an "old guy" you are a pretty agressive investor. I could buy TQQQ and kill the rally. Easy call when you are older than 80 + lots of money + pension & SS that covers expenses and more. The most problematic is when you are 60-75 years old and retired without a pension. LOL. I am fine. See, my son called me yesterday and was upset that I sold TQQQ at a big loss instead of waiting it out. He forced me to buy TQQQ again today. Any way, I am done with it for now.
You can use PIMCO CEFs and others that you are comfortable with as annuity, as Steelpony and I use. In fact, I regret now that I gave up a lot of money to the state (It is a long story, why I went from TIAA to the state) to get my retirement. I wish I had learned from Intruder and Steelpony back in 2004. That is when I had to make a decision. Now, I have to live with my decision back in 2004. In fact, the director of personal (of the university) warned me about my decision at that time.
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Post by ECE Prof on Aug 4, 2022 0:48:36 GMT
ECE Prof , I gotta salute you. For an "old guy" you are a pretty agressive investor. I could buy TQQQ and kill the rally. Gary I also sold SCHD for about 2000 today and bought TQQQ to make up part of the rest. It is only halfway of original shares that I sold. It is not for me, but for my granddaughters (7 and 10). I never want to bet against the American Market, like some people who short the market. Some people do it, because they think that they could make money in the short run. That is not my style. The reason is: No one knows when it will shoot back up.
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Post by Fearchar on Aug 4, 2022 1:46:56 GMT
VMFXX is headed toward 2.33%; the effective Federal Funds rate.
Of course, the FED could push the rate higher and are expected to as well.
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Post by mozart522 on Aug 4, 2022 1:48:29 GMT
We will see. I read today that experts who deal in inflation derivatives has said it will come down to 8.75 for the next three reports July, Aug, Sept.) I think the FED will go .75 but the market is thinking .50 and some pillow talk. I'm staying in cash and treasuries for the time being. At best, IMHO, we have another few weeks of rally. If they are "experts" why didn't they call 9% inflation in January 2022? Treasuries and cash are OK, but you are missing a muni bull market. Looking forward to the rally in equities petering out. I want to buy. Well then you should buy. We will see how long it lasts. I don't know and you don't know. But since you are invested, I guess it is normal for you to be optimistic. As for the experts, it would seem that the volume and price of dirivative contracts would be some type of indicator. Won't have long to wait as the July CPI comes out next week. What good would a mini bull do me i it is all given back soon. Lot and lots of headwinds, and tail winds are just hopes and guesses. |
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Post by mozart522 on Aug 4, 2022 1:54:21 GMT
"Consumer debt is very high now." That is the American way, LOL. Spend, spend, and spend… It is ok to have debt, because nobody can collect your debt, after you are gone. So, as long as you live, consumer debt is not a biggie. Look at our Federal government. They owe trillions. Does it worry? No, because, that is the American way, shown by our government. Because of inflation, CC debt is the highest it has been in many years, and rates are rising, so it is even more difficult to pay them down. Sooner or later, they get rejected, or just quit spending. 70% of the economy is consumer spending. Yes, it is the American way. It is also the American way to spend ourselves into recession. |
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Post by FD1000 on Aug 4, 2022 13:09:13 GMT
"Consumer debt is very high now." That is the American way, LOL. Spend, spend, and spend… It is ok to have debt, because nobody can collect your debt, after you are gone. So, as long as you live, consumer debt is not a biggie. Look at our Federal government. They owe trillions. Does it worry? No, because, that is the American way, shown by our government. Because of inflation, CC debt is the highest it has been in many years, and rates are rising, so it is even more difficult to pay them down. Sooner or later, they get rejected, or just quit spending. 70% of the economy is consumer spending. Yes, it is the American way. It is also the American way to spend ourselves into recession. You are on a roll, mozart to my ears. |
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Post by ECE Prof on Aug 4, 2022 14:37:23 GMT
Demand destruction has already started with increasing rates, and so the 10-year has started retreating now. 10-year has fallen from 2.75% to 2.687% today. Mortgage rate has fallen below 5% today. Oil is even below $90 today. The gas price is only $3.27 in Sam's club, and just a penny more in Walmart. So, the FED does not have to be as aggressive as it wanted. Businesses have started feeling the heat now due to backlash from the consumers. Even COSTCO is feeling the heat today.
Newton's third is very active. It is always the balance, and it is not unidirectional or one-dimensional as some of you think that it is.
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Post by Chahta on Aug 4, 2022 15:28:21 GMT
ECE Prof , I gotta salute you. For an "old guy" you are a pretty agressive investor. I could buy TQQQ and kill the rally. Easy call when you are older than 80 + lots of money + pension & SS that covers expenses and more. The most problematic is when you are 60-75 years old and retired without a pension (other than SS).That is why I don't buy TQQQ. I am tempted at times but logic prevails. I stay in my own lane and try to be moderately conservative. But I do like that muni trade. |
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Post by ECE Prof on Aug 4, 2022 16:19:18 GMT
Easy call when you are older than 80 + lots of money + pension & SS that covers expenses and more. The most problematic is when you are 60-75 years old and retired without a pension (other than SS).That is why I don't buy TQQQ. I am tempted at times but logic prevails. I stay in my own lane and try to be moderately conservative. But I do like that muni trade. It is a good idea to stay comfortable with their investments based on their own situation and their own tolerance. There is nothing wrong with it. Neither there is nor there can a common denominator for all individuals. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2022 20:05:33 GMT
VMFXX has crept up to 2.10% 7 Day Yield.
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Post by mozart522 on Aug 8, 2022 11:43:23 GMT
Seems to be rising about .1% every 7 days lately. By the next FED rise, 2.4-2.5 seems reasonable.
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