|
Post by retiredat48 on Dec 18, 2023 15:47:27 GMT
chang , roi2020 ,others....I agree China may have an economic rebound etc. And a rising stock market. But for me, what tops all this is the witnessing of how XI changed for awhile, and if desired could simply seize/take all foreign ownership of assets. One does not directly invest in China...complicated share ownership. Too big a risk that one day you wake up and your china holdings are gone! Simply not necessary to take on this risk. If China does what they say, and takes Taiwan (tries to) and USA response is strong against, expect political risk re China seizure of stocks to rise dramatically. I don't want my portfolio fate to be in the hands of eighty year macho Presidents (take your pick). And BTW I do not understand how a "socialistic, communist party" is allowing such capitalism to thrive in their economy--making so many millionaires and billionaires. Where is Jack Ma?? These assets belong to the people, is the mantra. If I led China, I might seize also! R48
|
|
|
Post by howaya on Dec 18, 2023 17:58:53 GMT
I’ve held Vanguard Em. Markets fund (VEMAX) in my Roth IRA for years, and it has been a CHRONIC underperformer. I keep wondering whether I should sell, just worried that as soon as I sell, it will then undergo “reversion to the mean” and wind up shooting up. So I continue to just hold a toehold there, and watch it just struggle along, shooting up occasionally only to follow with dramatic falls.
Fortunately, it’s NOT a lot of money, but it definitely has NOT shot “the lights out”. Unwilling to go with a more targeted holding in this area. Win Possibly five weeks ago a popular guest on Bloomberg Wall Street Week commented on investing in EM. To paraphrase, she said there is strong evidence that EM periodically outperforms and then - over time - gives all the gains back. That really stuck in my mind but her name still escapes me. Hopefully someone here remembers that interview and can create a link.
|
|
bruce
Lieutenant
Posts: 56
|
Post by bruce on Dec 18, 2023 22:02:44 GMT
Even though my EM fund has finished in the top quartile over the past 3, 5, 10, and 15 years, it has been a drag on performance. It has trailed my mainstay VTI by an average of 6.16%/year for the past 15 years. I've been hoping for another 80%+ return that I enjoyed within a year or two after including the EM purchase, but that dream is fading. Demographics indeed point to a bright future for an EM allocation; the question we all have is how long it will take to reap its benefits. Good luck with your decision.
|
|
|
Post by roi2020 on Dec 19, 2023 0:35:54 GMT
chang , roi2020 ,others....I agree China may have an economic rebound etc. And a rising stock market.
But for me, what tops all this is the witnessing of how XI changed for awhile, and if desired could simply seize/take all foreign ownership of assets. One does not directly invest in China...complicated share ownership. Too big a risk that one day you wake up and your china holdings are gone! Simply not necessary to take on this risk.
Yes, this is a large concern for me as well. I'm also not fond of the Chinese government's actions on several levels. I favor active management for EM equities and would be perfectly ok without any China exposure*. Many EM index funds are heavily tilted towards China (~30% in EEM).
* My Foreign Large-Cap Growth fund includes some Chinese equities.
|
|
mani
Lieutenant
Posts: 56
|
Post by mani on Dec 19, 2023 22:31:30 GMT
retiredat48 , Life and Liberty fund has an interesting approach, their fund FRDM, was started by an ex fund manager of Fido’s EM fund who was not enamored w Chinese protections of outside investors and also saw the massive allocations to China and Russia in EM funds, so started a fund weighted on the countries freedom indices using Carnegie and other to measue civic, political, and economic freedoms. This results in no China or Russia, and far less India and Brazil than most any other EM fund. four largest countries are Taiwan, South Korea, Chile, and Poland www.lifeandlibertyindexes.com/interview w founder www.valuewalk.com/perth-tolle-empowering-life-liberty-indexes/ Just looked into it. Very interested. Might try to snip at it. I have a still large MAPTX position that has been an ongoing disappointment. Any suggestion for something similar (mutual fund only) with much less China/Hong Kong in it?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2023 1:05:57 GMT
China is world 2nd largest economy. India is I believe 5th largest. South Korea I heard is very advanced economy and so is Taiwan in all likelihood.
I think this EM category is flawed and unnecessary.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2023 1:17:31 GMT
India is, I read, in top 5 economy and military power in world now.
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Dec 20, 2023 11:41:35 GMT
For India, look at the gross national data and per person data. They offer quite different pictures. India is a major EM market. In recent years, India or China have had the highest global growth rates. But India is quite expensive in typical valuation measures. Currently, India is among the beneficiaries of the shift FROM from China (others include Mexico, Vietnam, Thailand, etc). Years ago, when the shift TO China was beginning, people thought that India would also benefit, but that didn't happen then - those times were different for India. There are several India focused funds, ETFs etfdb.com/etfs/country/india/ Several Indian companies are listed in the US as ADRs. But many of the biggest companies in India are not listed in the US (or UK). www.investing.com/equities/india-adrsIndian Stock Index/ BSE finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EBSESN?p=%5EBSESNIndia Currency/ Rupee finance.yahoo.com/quote/INR%3DX?p=INR%3DXSingle country investing is very risky. One has to watch local economic and political, and regional geopolitical developments closely. Full disclosure - I grew up In India, but now have spent more decades in the US. Currently, I have only broad international and Asia exposures. I do watch India markets and news.
|
|
|
Post by mnfish on Dec 26, 2023 14:04:33 GMT
From Bloomberg - "Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s head of global currency, rates and emerging-markets strategy says he’s learned two main lessons from one of the biggest — and most-common — bad calls of 2023: the bet on post-pandemic China’s reopening boom."
"Strip out China, in fact, and emerging-market stocks have gained 16% this year, compared with just 4.4% for the MSCI emerging-market benchmark index where Chinese stocks are included, and account for nearly 30% of the total index by weight."
And Rekenthaler - Chinese Stocks: What Went Wrong
publicly traded Chinese companies routinely have very large owners. In 2018, more than 80% of listed Chinese firms possessed a shareholder that held at least 20% of the company’s equity. These investors, write the authors, often use their powers to “expropriate wealth from minority shareholders.”
Maintaining close ties with the government is essential for conducting business in China, but the relationship can also harm profits.
The risk that a company’s assets will be commandeered by the government, or its intellectual property stolen by its rivals, has sharply declined. (Or at least it had, before President Xi Jinping began, as one writer put it, “kneecapping Chinese companies.”) Still, such concerns sometimes cause managements to forgo profit-maximizing strategies in an attempt to forgo legal problems.
The good news is that conditions have since improved, permitting Chinese stocks to at least partially benefit from their country’s extraordinary economic growth. Whether progress will continue, or be halted by Xi’s “reforms,” remains to be seen.
So, stick with EM x-China IMO.
|
|
|
Post by chang on Dec 26, 2023 15:55:27 GMT
Wrong or early?
|
|
|
Post by rhythmmethod on Dec 26, 2023 16:58:30 GMT
Who knows? I'm sticking to my favorite Vietnamese and Nepalese restaurants.
|
|
|
Post by keppelbay on Dec 26, 2023 20:44:49 GMT
On China: I like to use Singapore stocks as a proxy for investment in China, particularly those that are subsidiaries of Temasek Holdings or where TH is a major shareholder. TH is one of two arms of Singapore's sovereign wealth management. TH is very well run. I suspect that TH has better insight into China and other regional markets than most fund managers.
|
|
|
Post by anitya on Dec 27, 2023 6:21:24 GMT
"I like to use Singapore stocks as a proxy for investment in China, particularly those that are subsidiaries of Temasek Holdings or where TH is a major shareholder."
Do you have link to a website that shows TH's holdings?
|
|
|
Post by fishingrod on Dec 27, 2023 7:18:52 GMT
"I like to use Singapore stocks as a proxy for investment in China, particularly those that are subsidiaries of Temasek Holdings or where TH is a major shareholder." Do you have link to a website that shows TH's holdings? Here is their portfolio.
|
|
|
Post by keppelbay on Dec 27, 2023 8:04:41 GMT
"I like to use Singapore stocks as a proxy for investment in China, particularly those that are subsidiaries of Temasek Holdings or where TH is a major shareholder." Do you have link to a website that shows TH's holdings?
Here's their website.
For example, under consumer and retail, look at Mapletree. 100% owned by TH, but within their portfolio are 3 publically traded REITs: retail, logistics and industial. You can find their pages using the drop down menu at the top right : explore mapletree websites
added by edit: fishingrod, thx for posting the website. I should have looked at your post before responding to anitya,
|
|
|
Post by anitya on Dec 27, 2023 19:46:57 GMT
"I like to use Singapore stocks as a proxy for investment in China, particularly those that are subsidiaries of Temasek Holdings or where TH is a major shareholder." Do you have link to a website that shows TH's holdings?
Here's their website.
For example, under consumer and retail, look at Mapletree. 100% owned by TH, but within their portfolio are 3 publically traded REITs: retail, logistics and industial. You can find their pages using the drop down menu at the top right : explore mapletree websites
added by edit: fishingrod , thx for posting the website. I should have looked at your post before responding to anitya , Thanks. Added to my calendar to explore this.
|
|
|
Post by mnfish on Mar 1, 2024 13:14:52 GMT
Quote from the last line in a Rekenthaler article -
"Eventually, emerging-markets equities will recover from their funk. Whether that makes the asset class worth owning is, however, another story. I remain skeptical."
|
|