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Post by alvinthechipmunk on Jul 28, 2022 3:21:00 GMT
Chang - I also have my share of European multis. In emerging, the one stock I hold is TSM and I add on any weakness. Would be interested in others' ideas on individual emerging market stocks. Taiwan is "emerging," still? TSM is surely a solid choice. INDIVIDUAL NAMES? I've done quite a bit of looking, already, and rather recently, too: MEXICO: VLRS. (no div, though.). www.barrons.com/market-data/stocks/vlrs/research-ratings?mod=quotes#subnavOMAB. 7.88% dividend yield according to Barron's, but Morningstar states 14.4% div. www.barrons.com/market-data/stocks/omab/research-ratings?mod=quotes#subnavGBOOY. www.barrons.com/market-data/stocks/gbooy/research-ratings?mod=quotes#subnav ******************************** Fearchar , ECE Prof , chang , bb2 , steadyeddy , FD1000 , retiredat48 , win1177 , Chahta ,@django , Norbert ,@slooow , |
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Post by FD1000 on Jul 28, 2022 4:09:19 GMT
Chang - I also have my share of European multis. In emerging, the one stock I hold is TSM and I add on any weakness. Would be interested in others' ideas on individual emerging market stocks. Taiwan is "emerging," still? TSM is surely a solid choice. INDIVIDUAL NAMES? I've done quite a bit of looking, already, and rather recently, too: MEXICO: VLRS. (no div, though.). www.barrons.com/market-data/stocks/vlrs/research-ratings?mod=quotes#subnavOMAB. 7.88% dividend yield according to Barron's, but Morningstar states 14.4% div. www.barrons.com/market-data/stocks/omab/research-ratings?mod=quotes#subnavGBOOY. www.barrons.com/market-data/stocks/gbooy/research-ratings?mod=quotes#subnav ******************************** Fearchar , ECE Prof , chang , bb2 , steadyeddy , FD1000 , retiredat48 , win1177 , Chahta ,@django , Norbert ,@slooow , TSM=Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) is the largest manufacturer of semiconductor chips. While Intel earns more revenue, TSM makes around 90% of advanced chips produced globally. TSM also controls more than half of the global semiconductor foundry market, by revenue. Sounds great, tell me your next 20 (or maybe 30) single stocks to create your portfolio. I'm not interested, as many others, to do lots of research and come out short, because I know the "stupid" SP500 track record, which beat most mutual funds and managers who spend many hours and lose. |
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Post by chang on Jul 28, 2022 5:48:47 GMT
FD1000 You've made the point before, but this forum exists to share ideas. You may not interested in doing company research, but others are. We’re not competing with Bogleheads.org here!
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Post by Norbert on Jul 28, 2022 6:23:15 GMT
I would not touch any of them even with a ten-foot pole based on the long term performance reported by M* and its analyst. M* research does not even want to cover them anymore should raise alarm bells. How does that sound? Sounds like music to my ears...when large groups give up on a sector or investment space, time to follow closely! Just like I am following marijuana stock ETF MJ very, very closely as it now has a five handle...formerly $32+ dollars per share. I know I will own some, someday. R48 Yes, it sounds like capitulation to me too. Time to look closely and maybe time to act? |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 28, 2022 10:59:59 GMT
alvinthechipmunk, Thanks for the links - I will look at this weekend. I also have a tiny stake in Sea Ltd. It is going to stay that way. I haven't been able to settle on an established EM strategy. The kerfuffle with China being the main reason. I have harvested some decent losses in EM. But I am going back in. Just need to figure out how. I've looked at one of Lyn Alden's strategies to get ideas. I currently have IEMG, IXUS, and VSS which has a bit of EM. Also have FEDDX - in my ROTH - learned my lesson on having these in taxables! I have built over a 50% position in TSM and will continue there. I have thought adding INDA - I did once and sold the next day - that should indicate how conflicted I am in this area. I do feel TSM is sold and if I go into other individual equities here, they would need to be comparable - i.e. no more SEAs or BABAs!
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Post by mnfish on Jul 28, 2022 12:50:03 GMT
FWIW - Wells Advisors has emerging markets rated as unfavorable and developed markets x-US as most unfavorable.
Expect emerging to get better in 2023 but be in no hurry to buy this year.
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Post by fritzo489 on Jul 28, 2022 12:51:05 GMT
Fearchar, ECE Prof, chang, bb2, steadyeddy, FD1000, retiredat48, win1177, Chahta,@django, Norbert,@slooow, richardsok,
Did you happen to catch recent story in WSJ, MJ being used in Yoga classes in NY ? BYOP ! Have a good day, fritzo489
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Post by Chahta on Jul 28, 2022 12:51:38 GMT
“Lastly, I'm glad we don't discuss Europe anymore, Europe is losing its edge for years already and why you can't find any European company in the top global tech by revenue(link). I just wanted to be fair and used revenues. Just think how sad it is.” What is really sad is there are some in this country that look up to Europe and want to be like them. I wouldn't lump all European countries together. The Scandinavian nations plus Switzerland now rank higher than the US in the WEF Global Competitiveness survey. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Competitiveness_ReportSadly, the US was ranked #2 in 2019. I'll leave it to others to speculate about the reasons for the decline. Well…..I was being a little sarcastic. Yes this is a financial site but my sly reference was to taxes, gas prices yada yada. There was not much financial thought in my post. Even though I have some Swedish/Norwegian blood in me and my last name is Swedish from great grandparents that were married on the boat over to here, I know very little of the Northern European area. That last paragraph from the report in your link is a whopper. But still as a mostly indexer for equities, world ex. US is pretty sad for years. |
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Post by FD1000 on Jul 28, 2022 20:39:48 GMT
2 easy charts. My 2 LT funds are VOO(SP500),SCHD(higher income) VS EEM + VGK (Europe) For 3 years VOO+SCHD made a total of 40-48%...VGK 10%...and EEM made almost nothing at 0.3 for 3 years. For 1 year, the gap is still the same But wait, in the last rebound of several weeks, the SP500 made 10% while VGK made 7% and EEM made 4%. At some point it will change but it's already years. Remember, that for every international company, there is probably an American one with similar performance and I can be selective with parameters, the comparison doesn't have to be the same. It's also known that you have better chances to make more money in a company in a better category. Buffet isn't looking to be diversified, he looks for the best companies for his style. This is his portfolio( link), as you can see, no diversification(Apple=41.6%) and mostly American. Since 2000, I started to invest based on Buffet: no more than 5 funds, their % of total portfolio don't have to be equal, invest in top funds (no need to be diversified). Attachments:
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Post by ECE Prof on Jul 28, 2022 21:11:38 GMT
2 easy charts. My 2 LT funds are VOO(SP500),SCHD(higher income) VS EEM + VGK (Europe) For 3 years VOO+SCHD made a total of 40-48%...VGK 10%...and EEM made almost nothing at 0.3 for 3 years. For 1 year, the gap is still the same But wait, in the last rebound of several weeks, the SP500 made 10% while VGK made 7% and EEM made 4%. At some point it will change but it's already years. Remember, that for every international company, there is probably an American one with similar performance and I can be selective with parameters, the comparison doesn't have to be the same. It's also known that you have better chances to make more money in a company in a better category. Buffet isn't looking to be diversified, he looks for the best companies for his style. This is his portfolio( link), as you can see, no diversification(Apple=41.6%) and mostly American. Since 2000, I started to invest based on Buffet: no more than 5 funds, their % of total portfolio don't have to be equal, invest in top funds (no need to be diversified). FD You have too much time in your hands. You keep proving the same thing everyone should know, who have tried the damn thing before, like me for example. Anyway, thanks buddy for giving an excellent education everyone is getting for free. Here is the comparison 10-year (FD: Check for the correct years) of VOO (Reference), VGK, and VWO (with reinvested dividends).
See how much money you lost with VGK and VWO, continually losing almost every year.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2022 0:29:35 GMT
While the dollar is strong and rising EM will stay weak. That will change. If one wants to accumulate for the long term, doesn't seem like a bad idea. Just don't expect instant rewards.
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Post by richardsok on Jul 29, 2022 15:53:11 GMT
While the dollar is strong and rising EM will stay weak. That will change. If one wants to accumulate for the long term, doesn't seem like a bad idea. Just don't expect instant rewards. All true, Sara. But with a beaten-down DEM distributing almost 8% while I withdraw 4% from my portfolio, I don't need instant rewards. Bought a few shares just before the ex-d. I want to watch this one closely. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2022 16:33:58 GMT
Going to take a look at DEM!
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Post by chang on Jul 29, 2022 16:38:18 GMT
Going to take a look at DEM! Er, watch out for those Russian and Chinese banks. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2022 17:28:08 GMT
It's not dividend oriented and doesn't have a lot of history, but AVES is a EM ETF that I've been watching, along with DEM and DVYE.
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Post by richardsok on Jul 29, 2022 19:48:20 GMT
Going to take a look at DEM! Er, watch out for those Russian and Chinese banks. Agree, chang. There's a risk. But DEM is so slammed already it is hard to see what more bad news would look like on the share price if the distribution is (at these levels) already being earned. Own just a tiny position to keep it front and center on my monitor. I want to watch this one. |
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Post by chang on Dec 16, 2023 18:34:21 GMT
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Post by roi2020 on Dec 17, 2023 21:26:02 GMT
For several consecutive years, some prognosticators (GMO, Research Affiliates, et al.) have forecasted that EM equity will outperform over longer time periods.
EM equities have underperformed for many years and valuations are now supposedly very attractive based on historical patterns.
I believe in reversion to the mean but can't definitively state that EM equities will outperform over the next seven to ten years.
I haven't owned a dedicated EM equity fund for almost five years and currently don't have much exposure in this area.
Seafarer Overseas Value (SIVLX) is being considered as a forthcoming addition to my portfolio. |
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Post by anovice on Dec 17, 2023 22:22:35 GMT
@chang I do not know if I agree, but I pair Seafarer Overseas Value, a dedicated mid cap (but has small and large cap stocks) conservative EM fund with Artisan International Value, a large cap core fund (closed) which has 18% of its portfolio in EM. I sleep well with these two funds. Seafarer also has a large cap EM fund, Seafarer Overseas Growth & Income. Andrew Foster started Seafarer in 2011 with Seafarer Overseas Growth & Income. Prior to that, he was the portfolio manager for Matthews Asian Growth & Income. Paul Espinosa is the Portfolio Manager for Seafarer Overseas Value with Andrew Foster as one of the two Co-Managers and Andrew Foster is the Portfolio Manager for Seafarer Overseas Growth & Income with Paul Espinosa and Lydia So as Lead Managers. I hold the Portfolio Managers and both funds in high regard. Below is the link to Seafarers website which I think you will find informative and transparent. There is also a link to a good article from August 2023 MFO "In conversation with Andrew Foster @ Seafarer Funds (SIGIX & SIVLX): On Emerging Markets" www.seafarerfunds.com/funds/ovl/overviewwww.mutualfundobserver.com/2023/08/in-conversation-with-andrew-foster-seafarer-funds-sigix-sivlx-on-emerging-markets/ |
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Post by retiredat48 on Dec 18, 2023 3:17:19 GMT
My initial input is this: I have become very cold and pessimistic regarding any and all things associated with investing in China. Two years ago I sold large size amounts of funds invested in China. Note in EM index China makes up a large percent of the assets.
I have remaining a modest holdings in EM. And I own a Seafarer Overseas Fund (long time holding). But I will limit any additions to EM to consist of: EM ex China. There are new funds that do exactly that.
Still undecided to increase EM holdings yet.
R48
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Post by roi2020 on Dec 18, 2023 7:13:08 GMT
Charlie Bilello just uploaded The Week in Charts video.
In the video he asks a question that I'm sure many investors are contemplating: Is mean reversion dead?
The mean reversion segment starts at 29:13.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UB-_F7pbWE
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Post by chang on Dec 18, 2023 7:34:41 GMT
My initial input is this: I have become very cold and pessimistic regarding any and all things associated with investing in China. Two years ago I sold large size amounts of funds invested in China. Note in EM index China makes up a large percent of the assets. I have remaining a modest holdings in EM. And I own a Seafarer Overseas Fund (long time holding). But I will limit any additions to EM to consist of: EM ex China. There are new funds that do exactly that. Still undecided to increase EM holdings yet. R48 I definitely hear what you're saying, R. I think I followed you out of China - I had bulked up on MITEX, MIAPX, FEMKX and APDYX during the good years, reaped handsome gains, and sold on the way down, giving up around 1/3 or more of my gains but still escaping with some. Unlike you, I got 100% out of China and EM. Now I'm considering a modest reentry in my IRA. By the way, FEDDX is well ahead of SIVLX the last 1Y, but behind SIVLX over 2-3Y, and they're identical over 5Y. I like FEDDX's chart better, and I prefer to keep my Fido IRA in Fido funds. (I know you actually mentioned SIGIX: FWIW, FEMKX beats SIGIX over 1Y, 5Y, and 10Y, but fall behind over 3Y: it's much more volatile, but I'm not sure Seafarer is a guaranteed LT winner.) |
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Post by chang on Dec 18, 2023 7:48:12 GMT
My initial input is this: I have become very cold and pessimistic regarding any and all things associated with investing in China. Two years ago I sold large size amounts of funds invested in China. Note in EM index China makes up a large percent of the assets. Matthews' Andy Rothman recently wrote: - "The [Chinese] economy is weak but not in crisis: the IMF forecasts that this year, and in 2024, China’s GDP growth rate will be second only to India’s among major economies."
- "Since July, the government has been taking a series of incremental steps designed to restore confidence. None of these measures, on their own, are sufficient to rebuild trust, but taken together they represent a pragmatic course correction that has been lacking... although it will take time."
- "The political relationship between Beijing and Washington should continue to stabilize, supporting a return of mutual confidence."
- "The resilience of Chinese consumers and entrepreneurs, as well as the pragmatism of the country’s policymakers, have often been underestimated, and that is likely the case again today."
www.matthewsasia.com/insights/sinology/2023/confidence/I'm not talking about backing up the truck by any means. But I've seen what China is doing in the EV space, not to mentioned building the world's first Gen IV gas-cooled nuclear reactor. As they finally emerge from the pandemic, their entrepreneurial power will be unleashed, as well as the purchasing power of their rising middle class. Lord knows I can't see a bottom or a top if it hit me on the head, but I'm wondering if it isn't the worst possible idea to allocate a little money to EM now; and if so, I wouldn't avoid China. |
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Post by roi2020 on Dec 18, 2023 8:20:17 GMT
But I've seen what China is doing in the EV space, not to mentioned building the world's first Gen IV gas-cooled nuclear reactor. As they finally emerge from the pandemic, their entrepreneurial power will be unleashed, as well as the purchasing power of their rising middle class.
Unfortunately, most foreign investors were not rewarded commensurately.
The Chinese government has a history of taking a heavy-handed approach to businesses when such action is deemed favorable for the Communist party or Xi. |
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Post by anovice on Dec 18, 2023 12:15:55 GMT
I think that FEDDX is a very good fund in the EM space. It has considerably more in China and less Hong Kong than both Seafarer funds. I understand wanting to keep your Fidelity IRA in Fidelity funds.
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Post by Capital on Dec 18, 2023 12:41:43 GMT
My initial input is this: I have become very cold and pessimistic regarding any and all things associated with investing in China. Two years ago I sold large size amounts of funds invested in China. Note in EM index China makes up a large percent of the assets. I have remaining a modest holdings in EM. And I own a Seafarer Overseas Fund (long time holding). But I will limit any additions to EM to consist of: EM ex China. There are new funds that do exactly that. Still undecided to increase EM holdings yet. R48 , I feel the same way about China. A year or so back I switched my EM ETF holdings to EMXC. I've never looked back and feel it to have been the right decision for me. |
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Post by comlb on Dec 18, 2023 12:48:04 GMT
retiredat48, Life and Liberty fund has an interesting approach, their fund FRDM, was started by an ex fund manager of Fido’s EM fund who was not enamored w Chinese protections of outside investors and also saw the massive allocations to China and Russia in EM funds, so started a fund weighted on the countries freedom indices using Carnegie and other to measue civic, political, and economic freedoms. This results in no China or Russia, and far less India and Brazil than most any other EM fund. four largest countries are Taiwan, South Korea, Chile, and Poland www.lifeandlibertyindexes.com/interview w founder www.valuewalk.com/perth-tolle-empowering-life-liberty-indexes/
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Post by win1177 on Dec 18, 2023 14:46:38 GMT
I’ve held Vanguard Em. Markets fund (VEMAX) in my Roth IRA for years, and it has been a CHRONIC underperformer. I keep wondering whether I should sell, just worried that as soon as I sell, it will then undergo “reversion to the mean” and wind up shooting up. So I continue to just hold a toehold there, and watch it just struggle along, shooting up occasionally only to follow with dramatic falls.
Fortunately, it’s NOT a lot of money, but it definitely has NOT shot “the lights out”. Unwilling to go with a more targeted holding in this area.
Win
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Post by retiredat48 on Dec 18, 2023 15:28:50 GMT
I’ve held Vanguard Em. Markets fund (VEMAX) in my Roth IRA for years, and it has been a CHRONIC underperformer. I keep wondering whether I should sell, just worried that as soon as I sell, it will then undergo “reversion to the mean” and wind up shooting up. So I continue to just hold a toehold there, and watch it just struggle along, shooting up occasionally only to follow with dramatic falls. Fortunately, it’s NOT a lot of money, but it definitely has NOT shot “the lights out”. Unwilling to go with a more targeted holding in this area. Win I tend to get the same feelings...UGHHH. But key is to remember that with a diversified portfolio, one cannot have "all top performing assets." Like: During last decade the Magnificent seven and S&P500 did outstanding (FSPTX my largest holding). But forget this. If this did not exist, how would one view the VALUE part of the market. Actually, not bad. A retiree investing only in high dividend stock funds did OK over this time. For example, I have owned TIBIX Thornberg Income Builder Fund for over a decade, with dividends reinvested. It holds a lot of international. Yield always above 5%. I held it as a bond substitute for FI side (during the ZIRP period). Fund did not perform as well as the S&P500---not even close. But M* says total return in last decade, $10,000 went to $21,266. I'll take it, and am satisfied. I keep holding TIBIX. I'm a supporter of diversification for retirees to protect their assets. R48 |
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Post by retiredat48 on Dec 18, 2023 15:35:48 GMT
comlb,...Thank for heads-up post. alvinthechipmunk, FD1000, chang, Norbert, mnfish, fritzo489, Chahta, ECE Prof, richardsok, roi2020, anovice, retiredat48, Capital, comlb, win1177,... Please keep recommendations coming re funds. I am too lazy in old age and rely on posters for sources!! Increasing my investment returns only increases the amount of money my kids and charities will get in future, so less of a drive to dig deep into things these days. Posting itself takes up a lot of my investing time! R48
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