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Post by liftlock on Sept 14, 2022 22:02:45 GMT
liftlock I see your chart is sorted by P/E from low to high, and pleased that my picks are in the lowest third of P/E (although I didn’t choose them on that basis). Is the yield for PBR correct? If so, isn’t that a bit scary? Actually, I sorted the chart by Price / Cash flow which closely correlates to sort by P/E. The yield for PBR is absolutely nuts. The dividend rate math looks correct but I bought the stock believing it would not be sustainable. However, the low price / cash flow ratio of less than 2.0 provides plenty of room for generous future dividends what ever they might be. The Brazilian government owns a majority of shares and exerts control over dividend distributions which are used to fund the government. There is an election in October which creates some risk of changing hands which might do stupid things. I betting on the goose not to destroy their golden egg. Attached it the chart of dividends:
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Post by anitya on Sept 14, 2022 22:28:00 GMT
liftlock, Thanks for your posts. Do you mind sharing how you pulled the table and the chart together? Thanks. P.S.: I noticed that very few Nat Gas heavy companies are featured in the table. Why are those so expensive and paying so little dividend notwithstanding high Nat Gas prices.
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Post by liftlock on Sept 15, 2022 1:20:23 GMT
liftlock , Thanks for your posts. Do you mind sharing how you pulled the table and the chart together? Thanks. P.S.: I noticed that very few Nat Gas heavy companies are featured in the table. Why are those so expensive and paying so little dividend notwithstanding high Nat Gas prices. I have a subscription to Validea.com and the data table came from a stock screener they have there. I restricted the search to larger market cap stocks and that probably explains why more of the natural gas heavy companies are not there. The dividend graph came from Fidelity.com. It seems that more energy companies have moved to a variable dividend model since the 2020 meltdown when energy stocks were trading at 20+ year lows and at risk of going out of business. So many now pay special dividends when results are there without any implied promise of a regular on going dividend. I suspect the prices have been bid up on the natural gas heavy stocks because investors believe the profits will be there. As an aside, we exchanged messages a while back on Shiller's CAPE ETN (CAPD) which will mature on Oct 12, 2022. Barclays does not intend to issue a replacement ETN. Instead, they have licensed the Shiller CAPE ETF to DoubleLine Caplital Ticker (CAPE). I plan to move my CAPD funds to CAPE.
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Post by anitya on Sept 15, 2022 5:40:23 GMT
liftlock, Thanks for the reply. Hopefully, holders of CAPD will buy into CAPE and increase CAPE's AUM. I would pick a good trading volume day and move now and not wait. I think it is a decent product. Based on its AUM in six months since launch, DoubleLine seems to have neglected marketing CAPE. I had completely forgotten about it until you mentioned now. Perhaps, you would not mind reminding us about it when it reaches $150M AUM so there is decent trading volume.
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Post by chang on Dec 9, 2022 9:56:15 GMT
Anybody like Equinor? I have a small holding, alongside much larger holdings of Shell and Total. Equinor is conspicuous by its mediocre 2.17% yield, which is why I haven’t added to it. I want income from my stock portfolio, in which I don’t reinvest dividends. Wondering how other owners see its future … as a growth stock? Or a value stock … it lands in the lower half of liftlock’s listing by P/E and P/CF (see above post from 9/14/22). My position is sitting on a nice profit, so there’s no harm in letting it sit forever, but I’m getting my “buy (add) list” in order and not sure where this fits in.
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Post by richardsok on Dec 9, 2022 10:22:13 GMT
Anybody like Equinor? I have a small holding, alongside much larger holdings of Shell and Total. Equinor is conspicuous by its mediocre 2.17% yield, which is why I haven’t added to it. I want income from my stock portfolio, in which I don’t reinvest dividends. Wondering how other owners see its future … as a growth stock? Or a value stock … it lands in the lower half of liftlock ’s listing by P/E and P/CF (see above post from 9/14/22). My position is sitting on a nice profit, so there’s no harm in letting it sit forever, but I’m getting my “buy (add) list” in order and not sure where this fits in. EQNR TipRanks Score: 8 (quite good) MerrillLyn: HOLD (Other analyst consensus): mildly bullish PE 4.75 EPS 7.58 Projected EPS next yr (from finviz): 6.33 (still doing well, but may slip, making div increase unlikely. With such a tiny dividend, management doesn't appear to be very investor-friendly, IMO.... so far . But --hoarding cash -- MASSIVE cash per share at $13.00/sh. Do you trust management to be smart with it to buy adroitly or toss out an enormous spec div? Or are they empire-builders who will overpay for trophy acqusitions? The low-interest rate oppty for takeovers has certainly passed. Div: 1.68 Technicals (my take) volatile and range bound. Possible opptys to buy on dips, sell on pops, as they appear to be temporary FWIW. Good luck with it.
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Post by liftlock on Dec 11, 2022 4:07:21 GMT
Anybody like Equinor? I have a small holding, alongside much larger holdings of Shell and Total. Equinor is conspicuous by its mediocre 2.17% yield, which is why I haven’t added to it. I want income from my stock portfolio, in which I don’t reinvest dividends. Wondering how other owners see its future … as a growth stock? Or a value stock … it lands in the lower half of liftlock ’s listing by P/E and P/CF (see above post from 9/14/22). My position is sitting on a nice profit, so there’s no harm in letting it sit forever, but I’m getting my “buy (add) list” in order and not sure where this fits in. Equinor ADR (EQNR) has excellent factor scores (99 out of 100) on Validea.com. Scores for Value, Quality, Fundamental and price momentum are all strong. Fidelity and Validea show dividend yield at 4.72%, not 2.17%. I see it a value stock with growth potential having plenty of cash flow to cover the dividend. I continue to be overweight energy. PE Ratio:4.7 Price/Sales:0.8 Price/Book:2.7 Price/Cash Flow:3.4 EV/EBITDA:1.34 Yield:4.72% Shareholder Yield:6.87%
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Post by chang on Dec 11, 2022 7:40:51 GMT
Yahoo finance shows 2.25% (EQNR) and 2.22% (EQNR.OL, which is what I actually own). Odd because they actually cite the dividend and yield together. I’ll have to dig deeper into this. It sounds like a fair candidate for adding to.
One day when Russia is at peace with everyone Equinor should be in a good position to capitalize on E&P opportunities there.
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Post by yogibearbull on Dec 11, 2022 14:16:57 GMT
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Post by chang on Dec 11, 2022 14:33:57 GMT
Thanks Yogi. Wasn’t aware of the 25% withholding, that sucks. I ought to check my other stocks — in London, Switzerland, Paris, Amsterdam, and Copenhagen.
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Post by liftlock on Dec 11, 2022 15:03:34 GMT
Yahoo finance shows 2.25% (EQNR) and 2.22% (EQNR.OL, which is what I actually own). Odd because they actually cite the dividend and yield together. I’ll have to dig deeper into this. It sounds like a fair candidate for adding to. It appears that difference between the 2.2% and 4.7% yields being quoted EQNR is the special / extraordinary $.70 dividend which is being excluded from the 2.2% yield calculations. You can see the extraordinary dividend on the link for the EQNR website YBB provided. More energy companies are now adopting a policy of paying lower regular dividends plus higher special dividends when profits are good. Check out PBR to see an extreme example of high special dividends.
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Post by liftlock on Dec 11, 2022 15:10:51 GMT
Thanks Yogi. Wasn’t aware of the 25% withholding, that sucks. I ought to check my other stocks — in London, Switzerland, Paris, Amsterdam, and Copenhagen. On a US tax return, I believe one can take a tax credit for foreign taxes withheld when shares are held in a taxable account. No such luck for shares held in a tax deferred account.
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Post by anitya on Dec 11, 2022 19:00:50 GMT
Thanks Yogi. Wasn’t aware of the 25% withholding, that sucks. I ought to check my other stocks — in London, Switzerland, Paris, Amsterdam, and Copenhagen. chang 〵chang, Just an FYI - Normally, it does not matter where the company's primary or secondary listing is; it matters where the paying company is tax resident and where the recipient is tax resident. E.g., many foreign companies are listed solely in the US and still withhold tax on dividends paid to US tax residents. I try to keep my foreign securities in the taxable account, unless I know the withholding tax is zero or minimum. For people that pay zero tax on dividends, it should not matter whether security is in taxable or tax deferred account. I keep International mutual funds in IRAs for fear of unexpectedly large distributions. yogibearbull probably can confirm / correct but I suspect mutual funds will pass on to shareholders any withholding tax suffered if one were to hold the mutual funds in a taxable account.
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Post by chang on Dec 11, 2022 19:07:26 GMT
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Post by chang on Jan 5, 2023 8:35:49 GMT
Equinor's gotten absolutely hammered. Down 14% in the last 5 days. A buy?
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Post by richardsok on Jan 5, 2023 11:30:25 GMT
Equinor's gotten absolutely hammered. Down 14% in the last 5 days. A buy? Good catch. I understand Europe is having an exceptionally mild winter; ski slopes melted at the height of season and nat gas use below what was feared. The Euros may not shiver in the dark this year after all. That, I'm guessing is one reason for the surprising drop. TipRanks gives it a 9/10. Merrill Lynch has it as BUY. And ex-div is up in a couple of days. However finviz projects earnings to fall next year, though still very much more than needed to support dividend. On Dec 1 HSBC downgraded it from BUY to HOLD. Equinor resumed production at the Njord field in the Norwegian Sea after extensive upgrading the platform and the floating storage and offloading....which should increase production. EQNR now priced near previous support levels. Might buy a couple of shares myself.
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Post by chang on Jan 5, 2023 11:51:58 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2023 12:15:23 GMT
I have a lot of energy holdings. They can bounce around like a loose ping pong ball. Like drop 14% in a short period or go up. A number of US energy companies have been hammered lately and if I didn't already own so much, I would be adding. Now, has to fall a lot further at this point for me to add though. And they might. I would keep in mind the potential to fall further and having the stomach for it. In general, I like energy a lot. But it is a patience game and quality counts for the long term. Probably great for traders. I would be looking at Equinor's revenues and expense control. Hopefully good expense control learned from the last downturn. Did they cut the dividend? Do they have a variable dividend? How's the balance sheet - debt? Good luck with it!
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Post by anitya on Jan 5, 2023 20:05:42 GMT
Equinor's gotten absolutely hammered. Down 14% in the last 5 days. A buy? chang, sold most of my oil & gas related equities late last year. Whatever of these I could not sell because of taxes, I sold covered calls expiring in Jan 2025. Still own some Equinor but not adding to any in the sector.
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Post by chang on Jan 5, 2023 20:10:57 GMT
Actually, Shell and Total have been two of my best holdings the last year. Holding both … good dividends.
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Post by uncleharley on Jan 5, 2023 22:01:47 GMT
Fwiw the CRB index set a 9 month low today with oil & gas leading the way down. Nat Gas closed near a 12 month low. Just thought I would mention that.
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Post by chang on Feb 8, 2023 8:41:49 GMT
Equinor's gotten absolutely hammered. Down 14% in the last 5 days. A buy? Up 6% at the open in Europe. It’s been surprisingly volatile. I wish it had a higher yield (2.67%) which would help to ride out the volatility. Nevertheless it’s got good LT prospects and I’m going to hang on to my modest position.
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Post by anitya on Feb 8, 2023 21:34:07 GMT
chang, I bought some more EQNR last week for the earnings release today. The stock went down another 4% after I bought and it did not bounce today as much as I hoped it would. The info in the earnings release (see link below) is very encouraging. Though I bought the additional shares for a trade, I am inclined to hold them based on the earnings release. The huge dividend yield is better than anything else I hope to own. What I think does not matter - what the market thinks matters and evidently, the market is lukewarm to it at this time. archive.fast-edgar.com/20230208/AN22D22CZ222B2Z2222Q224K8PB8OF223252/
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Post by anitya on Feb 17, 2023 21:24:43 GMT
chang, Earlier this week I sold EQNR bought last week. The premium for covered calls was not big enough to hold. I hope to buy this again or go for a bigger lottery like UNG!
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Post by chang on Apr 18, 2023 7:26:34 GMT
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Post by richardsok on Apr 18, 2023 11:36:28 GMT
For the past year or so EQNR has treated its shareholders to a Halloween fun-house ride -- and not always a happy one. While the distributions have greatly increased from their former pittance, the always-volatile stock price dropped and distys seem to remain irregular. For a long time management has been doling out little bits of dividends while income was robust and insider ownership became massive. NOW stock price is low, they buy back shares and forward (irregular?) yield is 8.7%. Cash on hand is enormous. If you trust these birds, I'd say EQNR was a trading stock -- not B&H. IMO, there could be real oppty here, but with their history, no telling what managers/majority owners may do next. TipRanks: 7/10. Merrill L: neutral (?)
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Post by liftlock on Apr 18, 2023 14:05:12 GMT
For the past year or so EQNR has treated its shareholders to a Halloween fun-house ride -- and not always a happy one. While the distributions have greatly increased from their former pittance, the always-volatile stock price dropped and distys seem to remain irregular. For a long time management has been doling out little bits of dividends while income was robust and insider ownership became massive. NOW stock price is low, they buy back shares and forward (irregular?) yield is 8.7%. Cash on hand is enormous. If you trust these birds, I'd say EQNR was a trading stock -- not B&H. IMO, there could be real oppty here, but with their history, no telling what managers/majority owners may do next. TipRanks: 7/10. Merrill L: neutral (?) EQNR looks like a good value. Ranks 91/100 at Validea.com. Value 98, Quality 84, Fundamental Momentum 91. Tax Withholding for US investors is 15%. I tend to buy and hold stocks until they look fundamentally unattractive to me. Energy stocks are going to be volatile based on the swings in energy prices. I would have difficult trading them. I continue to like the fundamental supply demand inbalance in energy sector despite the move to EVs. Here is a list of other energy stocks that may be worth looking at. PBR continues to be dirt cheap on a price to cash flow basis. The dividend is still insane and but would still be attractive if it were cut by 75%. Energy price declines and fears of what Lula might do keep the stock price suppressed. Top Ranked Energy Stocks - 2023-04-17.pdf (428.79 KB)
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Post by chang on Apr 18, 2023 16:25:26 GMT
liftlock, I would have to agree regarding trading energy stocks — I'm not sure there's much to be gained that you could not achieve by simply trading an ETF that tracks the price of oil. As for Equinor, my position is on the small side (I have larger holdings of Total and Shell), so it's not too challenging to hold it. (However, for the same reason, it's never going to make or break me.)
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Post by mnfish on Apr 18, 2023 19:06:44 GMT
What is the corporate tax rate in Norway? EQNR paid $49,861M in income tax on $78,604M of net income in 2022. 63.4% tax?
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Post by anitya on Apr 18, 2023 19:12:12 GMT
chang, I rebought EQNR when it went down to sub $27. Initially it behaved as well as US integrates, especially upon OPEC cut announcement, and I sold 1/2 but it has been stuck around 29. I will look to exit the remaining - just to clean it out. I agree with richardsok that it is a trading stock.
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