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Post by Norbert on May 29, 2022 9:44:02 GMT
The S&P 500 did a great job holding 3900 last week and has bounced to the top side of its downtrend channel. www.tradingview.com/x/SZ7K2RqNCan we push it over strong horizontal resistance during June? That would be very bullish. I'll believe it when I see it. The bounce was very nice, but not impressive technically as it wasn't necessary to overcome any resistance so far. My guess is that it will take a benign inflation surprise to launch us higher from here. Or, the prospect of a ceasefire in Ukraine. That might actually happen, as the French & Germans want to shut the war down. And Kissenger said it's time to make a deal. ----- Sector wise commodities and oil & gas continue their strong uptrend. The recent dip stayed within an uptrend channel, which is bullish. www.tradingview.com/x/tGnBq5z5Value stocks including dividend funds continue to swing within a horizontal channel. They've given very little back during this broader market correction. www.tradingview.com/x/4KHZ8dfBSmall cap Growth has a nasty chart, showing 30% declines to 2019 levels. It faces serious resistance to move higher from here. www.tradingview.com/x/22kvrAHEChinese stocks have experienced another huge swing, this time down to 2016 levels. There will be some real money to be made on the next swing upwards. As for when that happens, I am clueless. (Note that this is a weekly chart.) www.tradingview.com/x/2x5AtKOpThat's all for now! N. |
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Post by yogibearbull on May 29, 2022 11:36:08 GMT
Stockcharts have several CandleGlance group displays that can be shown for 2 mo, 6 mo (selected below), 1 yr. Posting URLs usually doesn't work, so I have used the PB Link-tool.
S&P Sector ETFsInternational ETFsCommodities |
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Post by anitya on May 29, 2022 11:38:25 GMT
I too would like to see a permanent end to the war but with so much of Ukraine destroyed and made uninhabitable and Russia still in the process of taking the land connection to Crimea, I wonder why either party at this point would agree to end: one party having lost too much and the other party not gaining enough relative to the cost. Norbert, could you pl share your thoughts on what would be the path to a negotiated end? |
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Post by uncleharley on May 29, 2022 12:05:06 GMT
"Chinese stocks have experienced another huge swing, this time down to 2016 levels. There will be some real money to be made on the next swing upwards. As for when that happens, I am clueless. (Note that this is a weekly chart.)"
Your clue is the declining trading volume on the upswing last yr and rising volume on the downswing. The next upswing will require some fundamental changes before it will have any strength. jmho
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Post by Norbert on May 29, 2022 13:14:54 GMT
I too would like to see a permanent end to the war but with so much of Ukraine destroyed and made uninhabitable and Russia still in the process of taking the land connection to Crimea, I wonder why either party at this point would agree to end: one party having lost too much and the other party not gaining enough relative to the cost. Norbert, could you pl share your thoughts on what would be the path to a negotiated end? It's off topic, but both sides are paying a heavy price for their mistakes. Zelensky may see pressure from Germany and France to compromise; and Russia's recent gains might allow Putin to declare victory and do a deal; plus he seems to be facing internal dissent. Let's please leave it there? |
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Post by chang on May 29, 2022 15:11:12 GMT
Jeremy Grantham is still bearish (from Business Insider, 28 May 2022):
“US stocks are set to double or even triple their recent declines, Jeremy Grantham warned in a CNBC interview this month. The market historian and GMO cofounder suggested the S&P 500 could plunge by 56% from its current level to about 1,900, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq could nosedive 74% to below 3,100.”
Really?
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Post by uncleharley on May 29, 2022 16:16:28 GMT
1900!!! WOW!!!! That is below my 2200 call. I wonder what he bases that figure on???
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2022 16:52:43 GMT
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Post by anitya on May 29, 2022 19:43:16 GMT
I too would like to see a permanent end to the war but with so much of Ukraine destroyed and made uninhabitable and Russia still in the process of taking the land connection to Crimea, I wonder why either party at this point would agree to end: one party having lost too much and the other party not gaining enough relative to the cost. Norbert , could you pl share your thoughts on what would be the path to a negotiated end? It's off topic, but both sides are paying a heavy price for their mistakes. Zelensky may see pressure from Germany and France to compromise; and Russia's recent gains might allow Putin to declare victory and do a deal; plus he seems to be facing internal dissent. Let's please leave it there? Makes sense. I was not looking to discuss / debate; just your understanding of the status. Thanks for sharing. |
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Post by archer on May 30, 2022 2:18:39 GMT
Last week the market bounced off the March 2021 low and the 38.2 fibonacci retracement of the March 2020 covid low to Jan 2022 advance, (Don't ask me what that means though). Now the S&P is against overhead resistance of Feb 24 and March 8th lows. There are still more layers of overhead resistance before we are no longer in a downtrend. I'd post a chart but it isn't copyable.
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Post by Chahta on May 30, 2022 2:25:56 GMT
How about a screenshot?
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Post by archer on May 30, 2022 2:34:59 GMT
Looks like that would work, but I see it's copyrighted, so I will respect that. The info is from Asbury research. |
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Post by junkster on May 30, 2022 15:16:55 GMT
I have always been a big fan of market momentum. The last three trading days on the NYSE we had some powerful momentum in the market and a 3x 70% breath thrust signal was triggered, These are rare and the last two signals occurred at/near the bottoms of the late 2018 mini bear in January 2019 and the February/March Covid mini crash of 2020 in late March.
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Post by uncleharley on May 30, 2022 19:29:22 GMT
I have always been a big fan of market momentum. The last three trading days on the NYSE we had some powerful momentum in the market and a 3x 70% breath thrust signal was triggered, These are rare and the last two signals occurred at/near the bottoms of the late 2018 mini bear in January 2019 and the February/March Covid mini crash of 2020 in late March. I too rely on momentum to guide my buy/sell decisions but I like to filter out some of the noise by using a weekly chart as my primary guide before going to the daily or intraday chart for the best time to hit a key on my laptop. The weekly chart for the S&P 500 shows that the MACD indicator remains on the downward leg of a rounded top. My conclusion is that the broader markets momentum remains negative and we shall continue down. this week might tell a different story, but for now I remain a bear on equities. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p35308650206&a=524485138&listNum=86 |
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Post by archer on May 30, 2022 19:57:42 GMT
I have always been a big fan of market momentum. The last three trading days on the NYSE we had some powerful momentum in the market and a 3x 70% breath thrust signal was triggered, These are rare and the last two signals occurred at/near the bottoms of the late 2018 mini bear in January 2019 and the February/March Covid mini crash of 2020 in late March. I too rely on momentum to guide my buy/sell decisions but I like to filter out some of the noise by using a weekly chart as my primary guide before going to the daily or intraday chart for the best time to hit a key on my laptop. The weekly chart for the S&P 500 shows that the MACD indicator remains on the downward leg of a rounded top. My conclusion is that the broader markets momentum remains negative and we shall continue down. this week might tell a different story, but for now I remain a bear on equities. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p35308650206&a=524485138&listNum=86I like your charts you have posted here and other threads. I have not been able to find the same format on Stockcharts.com. Do you have a subscription or are you able to create your charts with the free version? @chahta: UH's Chart shows the technicals I posted earlier. |
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Post by uncleharley on May 30, 2022 20:03:55 GMT
I subscribe to stockcharts. The last time I renewed, I signed up for 3 yrs so I no longer know what the price is. I have found the prescription to be invaluable. I am sure there are other sites that are adequate.
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Post by junkster on May 30, 2022 22:52:59 GMT
I have always been a big fan of market momentum. The last three trading days on the NYSE we had some powerful momentum in the market and a 3x 70% breath thrust signal was triggered, These are rare and the last two signals occurred at/near the bottoms of the late 2018 mini bear in January 2019 and the February/March Covid mini crash of 2020 in late March. I too rely on momentum to guide my buy/sell decisions but I like to filter out some of the noise by using a weekly chart as my primary guide before going to the daily or intraday chart for the best time to hit a key on my laptop. The weekly chart for the S&P 500 shows that the MACD indicator remains on the downward leg of a rounded top. My conclusion is that the broader markets momentum remains negative and we shall continue down. this week might tell a different story, but for now I remain a bear on equities. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p35308650206&a=524485138&listNum=86I am more into pure price action and feel the more indicators/filters involved the further you get away from what is occurring in the here and now. But whatever works for you is all that matters. I respect whatever it is others are doing to achieve their financial goals. Extremes in advances/declines and upside/downside volume are what appeals to me. If I use any filters it is sentiment. The 3 day advance/decline indicator I referenced has only kicked in 27 times in the past 65 years but it is not one of my favorites. Its rare failure was early January 2009 and it was a doozy. Last week was risk on as junk munis and junk corporates had their biggest week of the year. To get me excited I would want to see more strength in equities each day this week. That would kick in Zweig’s 10 day advance/decline momentum indicator - rare but ultra bullish. I am not holding my breath. |
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Post by Norbert on Jun 4, 2022 4:54:35 GMT
Looking at the S&P 500, I see that it was unable to conquer horizontal and trend channel resistance this week. www.tradingview.com/x/ufFUuEcnMeanwhile commodities prices continued their upward march this week. www.tradingview.com/x/Uu4zbRhVI have no convictions about the direction of stock market travel for the next weeks and months. If the S&P 500 could break resistance with conviction here, that would definitely be bullish. |
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Post by anitya on Jun 4, 2022 20:49:57 GMT
Looking at the S&P 500, I see that it was unable to conquer horizontal and trend channel resistance this week. www.tradingview.com/x/ufFUuEcnMeanwhile commodities prices continued their upward march this week. www.tradingview.com/x/Uu4zbRhVI have no convictions about the direction of stock market travel for the next weeks and months. If the S&P 500 could break resistance with conviction here, that would definitely be bullish. This deserves a bump up. |
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Post by anitya on Jun 4, 2022 20:59:16 GMT
The longer the swoon continues, it has a potential to become a self fulfilling loop, accelerated by the discovery / acknowledgement of real from the unreal in the market place (e.g., frauds, weak balance sheets, regulators getting courage to investigate matters they would otherwise hesitate to touch, etc.). I have no preference whether the market swoon ends soon or continues.
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Post by Norbert on Jun 5, 2022 6:30:35 GMT
Looking at the S&P 500, I see that it was unable to conquer horizontal and trend channel resistance this week. www.tradingview.com/x/ufFUuEcnMeanwhile commodities prices continued their upward march this week. www.tradingview.com/x/Uu4zbRhVI have no convictions about the direction of stock market travel for the next weeks and months. If the S&P 500 could break resistance with conviction here, that would definitely be bullish. This deserves a bump up. Nah, couldn't spot anything meaningful at all. Everything seems to be moving within established boundaries, technically. |
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Post by anitya on Jun 5, 2022 6:58:20 GMT
Nah, couldn't spot anything meaningful at all. Everything seems to be moving within established boundaries, technically. You are too modest! I happen to have made a mental note of the same resistance level for S&P 500 and a corresponding one for QQQ at the end of Friday. I did not post but you did and thought your effort deserved a nod. |
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Post by Norbert on Jun 14, 2022 16:08:53 GMT
Divvie stocks as represented by SCHD have broken support. This is a first sign of potential trouble. www.tradingview.com/x/3RyKrdW3VIG looks similar, though HDV looks stronger, maybe thanks to an oil & gas overweight? |
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Post by uncleharley on Jun 14, 2022 17:26:40 GMT
My fave dividend payer [UTG] is in a waterfall. Maybe a rising rate environment is demanding a higher dividend. UTG is currently paying 7.2%.
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Post by anitya on Jun 14, 2022 17:45:53 GMT
Liquidity in fixed income market, as represented by bid-ask spreads, is showing strains. With this, any possibility of accelerating QT is diminished. I think Powell in his presser might refer to the terminal fed fund rate (and SEPs) and timing of it and say front loading all of it is not necessary, just to get the fixed income markets to start functioning again.
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Post by anitya on Jun 14, 2022 18:20:53 GMT
My fave dividend payer [UTG] is in a waterfall. Maybe a rising rate environment is demanding a higher dividend. UTG is currently paying 7.2%. Defensive sectors are performing the worse on a down day for the market. One would think UTG should protect more than anything from inflation driven rate increases. The problem could be the market may be expecting front end rates to rise while back end rates to come down. So, higher cost of leverage while earnings come down. Markets may be efficient in the mid to long term but I am not so sure day to day. |
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Post by uncleharley on Jun 14, 2022 18:33:24 GMT
"Markets may be efficient in the mid to long term but I am not so sure day to day."
Fwiw; I am sure they are not efficent day to day. It is fun to watch trends and patterns develop, but one has to be careful to not get excited over a wiggle on a chart. jmho
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Post by anitya on Jun 15, 2022 2:35:17 GMT
I think Norbert's post about Dividend ETFs doing worse today should get more attention. I noticed the same over the past week or so but today was pronounced. The same phenomenon happened in earlier cycles when folks were projecting no to low economic growth (or some form of recession).
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