R48 mentioned in the BSW thread that he has initiated a trading position in MJ. The post tweaked my interest enough to pull up a chart or two on it. The daily chart shows that MJ has been in a parabolic rise for the past several months and is due for a correction. It appears to me that it should correct to that open gap near 15.5. That will probably be an excellant entry point. jmho
In Nov a similar large gap was made on the upside, and a correction filled it within the upper half of the gap, then proceeded to new highs. But note it took only about 4 days of correction to do that. MJ can move 10% a day, so one needs to follow closely.
Thanks uncleharley , That is a 9-1/2 pound Large mouth bass from Northern Virginia. Caught on a "Mann's Baby 1 minus". Thrown right to the bank from a canoe. When she hit, it felt like I had snagged an old saturated fence post. She descended all the way down to the bottom some eighteen feet, and then slowly started to surface. As she came up and turned on her side I could see her, and I realized I have a really nice bass here. I released her. Fishingrod
Just kidding, of course! But my adult kids are thrilled, and can't believe their Dad is investing in marijuana!
When I can drive west a few miles, and see old dilapidated Florida orange groves, filled with marijuana plants, the new crop, we'll know its time to perhaps sell MJ! Or if uncleharley says the tech charts are bad. Whichever comes first.
Well it has been a week or two and I was sleeping on monday, noticed the bump up late tues and bought a position on wednesday. Today MJ is consolidating again. Since the ETF is passively managed, My thought is to approach it as a sector index fund and just hold it. At my age I do not seem to have the agility to trade this dude so perhaps I should just take what the market has to offer and not miss any naps.
The MJ store that a relative shops at says you should always buy it there on Fridays because they give you a FREE grab bag of goodies valued at $50 with a $100 buy.
Oh wait, no, I think someone replied this thread is actually about something else.
Well, I started buying MJ just after Biden elected in November; considered that New Jersey legalizing it, was a turning point.
If MJ the etf keeps going up like it has, I will have enough $$ to buy all the real mj I need. Trouble is, at age 76, I was just outside the MJ scene. Never smoked any; never smoked a cigarette, in fact. Never took a drug!
Boring heh! But I can hit a three iron in golf! Priceless.
With 4 consecutive up days I would expect a mild correction, but the correction will probably be less than 10% making it doubtful that I would get back in at a lower price. I'll hold for now and the buy to hold idea is making more sense to me.
Wow...MJ now $29.08/share as I read the tape...doubled in three months!!
We invest differently, but with the same goal...not to get into losing positions, and thus make money.
Here's something I posted on the Fidelity Forum, re when would I exit MJ:
------------------------------------------------------------------------ @free2fly who wrote: As long as you know these are trading on volume. They have been up here before. They make no significant profits to speak of. At some point with the same high volume, you get more sellers than buyers. That should be the exit plan.
Yes, free2fly, but the advice is not directly actionable. Because, for every seller, there is always a buyer!
So one has to determine that more are selling out, in other ways. The primary dilemma being, when is it just a correction, versus a liquidation or bear market...let's call it a "downtrend."
My modus-operandi is I never try to sell when hitting new highs, speculating on a top. Rather, like climbing a mountain, I want to be over the top, going downward. So with MJ hitting a new high today (+9%) it is a no-brainer decision for me. No selling.
So how does one determine when "over the mountain" and getting into a downtrend? I use primarily the 200 day Moving Average on charts to assist in this. One partial (first) sell point is if the fund NAV price drops below the 200 day MA, by a meaningful amount...usually 1% or more. The second partial sale is if the SLOPE OF THE 200 MA, turns downward (usually later). Like skiing a downslope, the trend is confirming as down. The third sale is any rebound that fails to have NAV pass up through the 200 day MA, reversing to the downside. A fourth strong indicator is the net dollars flows into or out of a fund or ETF. This shows investors are leaving.
If you look at MJ, the etf is well above its 200 day MA; the MA is now changing to sloping upward, and money is coming in. I am holding!...More experienced investors may want to use 100 day MAs in highly volatile stock funds; traders may use from 20 to 50 day MAs...but can endure more whipsaws.
I use a faster trigger than that for my exits. The accumulation/distribution tool on stockcharts will normally turn down before the price does, consequently I use that for an early warning. Momentum indicators will begin to turn down before the 200dma is reached and I will sometimes sell when the MACD has turned down. Of course the various momentum indicators are made up of moving averages so we could be using the same sell signal, just a different indicator. Today the price of MJ rose significantly on the third highest daily trading volume in more than a year. The accumulation/distribution tool and the on balance volume tool are both staying up, indicating that shares continue to be accumulated. The intraday charts indicate that some resistance is developing at $29, but I doubt if that resistance lasts the night. As an aside, Marijauna is an agricultural commodity. We are now in the season when farmers are deciding what to plant in the spring. With some states legalizing its use, the price is probably going up. Consequently there are probably more farmers negotiating more contracts for more MJ and demanding higher prices because it is a new crop to many of them. For those reasons there could be some downside when the farmers have made their collective decisions and begin planting.
I don't know where my previous post went but I prefer brandy and I know where some decent scotch is. Meanwhile I was stopped out near the open for $31.88. That was about a 35% gain in 7 trading gains. Silver is looking more promising.