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Post by richardsok on Jan 18, 2021 1:38:30 GMT
Back during my M* days, we had a good on-going thread discussing & reviewing our RECENT READINGS.
Unless there's objection, I'd like to start a similar thread here, and open it to
Fiction / Non-Fiction / Classics / Investing & Economics
but also you might review.....
Recent worthwhile FILMS or TV, or WEBSITES you customarily follow, or NOTABLE ESSAYS you've recently read.
Some of us found the old M* thread worthwhile.
Let me start this thread off with a work I've just completed with a review I just posted over at goodreads.com ---
THE STONES OF VENICE. Edited by JAN MORRIS.
Astonishing --eccentric -- even outrageous opinions exquisitely expressed in every chapter of this classic loveletter to ancient and tragic Venice. Is it true that an immoral people cannot produce great art? How about secular people? Does art perforce suffer when a noble society turns from its founding ideals? Well, in the past twenty years the New York Times has tried to seriously review rap and hiphop "artists". ( Q.E.D. , I think.) Moreover, was Gothic "savage" and truly superior to Renaissance architecture? Despite Ruskin's frequent fancies, one comes away enlightened with his quirky, obsessive insights on society, culture, color, faith, labor, decadence and passion for aesthetics, not to mention Venice itself. (Granted St Marks' interior approaches the divine -- but I remember the first time I saw its exterior. It appeared to me a great, soiled, misshapen pile built by a quarrelsome committee. THIS is superior?) Anyway, bring along a notebook with your reading. You'll probably want to take notes. And perhaps you should. Get the JAN MORRIS edition, which is not without its amusing moments. Ruskin, remember, the quintessential Victorian dilettante -- and total virgin -- had spent years lingering over Europe's finest marble statuary, and was shocked -- SHOCKED -- to discover one night that women had pubic hair. I frequently skip over any type of prologues, but the Morris introduction is well worth reading .... twice. A book to treasure and to own, not to borrow.
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Post by helmut on Jan 18, 2021 18:48:29 GMT
Below is a link to a site that gives a glimpse of moments in history or as the writer described "Remembering the moments that made us." This is a nonpolitical brief look at moments in history. Full disclosure I am related to the blogger. Sharing History helmut
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Post by retiredat48 on Jan 18, 2021 19:52:18 GMT
Hello richardsok...been awhile since we had lunch at my Florida club, in late January 2020...and I stated an opinion then that COVID would likely result in a bear market!!...and that I was taking investment action, as well as securing toilet paper!
Here's a book for all to consider:
THE FOURTH TURNING...by Wm Strauss and Neil Howe
Briefly, the authors cite, in academic type studies of the cycles of history, that societies go in these approx 100 year cycles, consisting of four "turnings"...ending in a severe crisis that changes society. The last previous such fourth turning being the great depression and WWII. The start date: the 1929 market crash day. The book is way pre-covid.
The third turnings are labeled "unraveling"; the fourth called "Crisis." The authors posit that we are completing the third turning (indeed, are we unraveling?), and just starting the fourth. Hmmm.
My input...Could COVID be the start...a March that will be the start date for the crisis 20 year turn? A political revolution? Negative interest rates and collapse of the capital markets? Stock market exuberance? A collapse worldwide of the huge gvt debts underway? I noticed that bond guru manager Jeff Gundlach, in his recent outlook video, cited "The Turning" as a recommended book. Gundlach is rather pessimistic about the LT future.
Some parts of book a slow...especially reviewing older historical cycles. But the key points can be critical to navigating the future. Enjoy the book.
R48
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2021 19:58:40 GMT
"Gundlach is rather pessimistic about the LT future."
I recently read in Howard Marks memo that bond folks are pessimistic and stock folks are optimistic and that is also needed by profession they are in. Though that may not be sufficient reason to dismiss Gundlach pessimism but good to be aware of the bias he has.
I am very optimistic about the LT future though less so about short term US LG stocks at current valuation.
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Post by retiredat48 on Jan 18, 2021 20:07:28 GMT
"Gundlach is rather pessimistic about the LT future." I recently read in Howard Marks memo that bond folks are pessimistic and stock folks are optimistic and that is also needed by profession they are in. Though that may not be sufficient reason to dismiss Gundlach pessimism but good to be aware of the bias he has. I am very optimistic about the LT future though less so about short term US LG stocks at current valuation. Yes...I have read both Marks and Gundlach. However, I consider the Gundlach outlook was as much to do about society, as it did with the financial markets. He likes to discuss things such as: can society really go on, the rich getting extremely richer, the middle class in decline, and the poor staying poor. For instance, what good does it do to have (optimistically) you and I having portfolios that triple in value, if they are taken away from us? R48
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Post by uncleharley on Jan 18, 2021 20:35:54 GMT
I am currently reading Pyrography by Sue Walters. It is an instructional sort of workbook that I hope will help me develop some Pyrography skills which I will use to build Bluebird houses that are also attractive lawn ornaments.
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Post by javajoe on Jan 18, 2021 20:36:32 GMT
Here's a book for all to consider: THE FOURTH TURNING...by Wm Strauss and Neil Howe Briefly, the authors cite, in academic type studies of the cycles of history, that societies go in these approx 100 year cycles, consisting of four "turnings"...ending in a severe crisis that changes society. The last previous such fourth turning being the great depression and WWII. The start date: the 1929 market crash day. The book is way pre-covid. The third turnings are labeled " unraveling"; the fourth called " Crisis." The authors posit that we are completing the third turning (indeed, are we unraveling?), and just starting the fourth. Hmmm. My input...Could COVID be the start...a March that will be the start date for the crisis 20 year turn? A political revolution? Negative interest rates and collapse of the capital markets? Stock market exuberance? A collapse worldwide of the huge gvt debts underway? I noticed that bond guru manager Jeff Gundlach, in his recent outlook video, cited "The Turning" as a recommended book. Gundlach is rather pessimistic about the LT future. Some parts of book a slow...especially reviewing older historical cycles. But the key points can be critical to navigating the future. Enjoy the book. R48
It's important to note that this book is 20+ years old, but I also strongly endorse it if you like to look at the world through a large, macro sort of lens and worldview, especially social psychology, generations, history, macro economics, and cultural disruption. It's one of those rare books that brought forth truly new thought leadership and ideas, with 20+ additional books then coming out that build on the original thesis/ideas.
-JavaJoe
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2021 21:48:39 GMT
Personally I do not understand the pessimism. Covid is a black swan event from which we will learn and emerge stronger. But other than 1.5 years of Covid, we are in the most prosperous, lower disease and most peaceful times of history. So now people are afraid that good times will not last and sky will fall.
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Post by retiredat48 on Jan 18, 2021 22:18:02 GMT
Personally I do not understand the pessimism. Covid is a black swan event from which we will learn and emerge stronger. R48 quick replies in black: Technically, a black swan is an event you can't foresee. Pandemics were not only foreseen, and even predicted, but books were written that eerily described a coming pandemic similar to covid, as the setting. But other than 1.5 years of Covid, we are in the most prosperous, R48: We are losing 1% of middle class each year. The top few percent are getting more-and-more prosperous. Just read an argument that the 1970's was most prosperous for USA in terms of real earning power versus wages. I tend to agree. And millions of seniors rely on CDs and bank savings accounts--earning zilch now. I have a 101 y/o MIL who gets zero on her portfolio; fortunately she has enough principal to make it to 125! (She still worries). lower disease Not now. Expect more viral type diseases to occur. And financial/societal impact of current covid may be grossly understated.and most peaceful times of history. Abroad yes. It's been about 200 years since British invaded Washington DC, burning many fed buildings, sitting in Congress desks (congressmen had to flee westward), then leaving the next day, sending a message to USA, to stop aiding France. Google it. Oh, seems like that just happened again, 2021. I listened to a TV announcer interview a thirtyish couple getting on one of the buses heading to Washington rally. The lady told the reporter: "You will remember tomorrow, forever, as it is the first day of the next revolution." Hmmm. So now people are afraid that good times will not last and sky will fall. Maybe we shouldn't hijack this thread theme. I'll signoff...Good to chat with you, waffle.R48 in bold.
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Post by Chahta on Jan 18, 2021 22:20:57 GMT
Personally I do not understand the pessimism. Covid is a black swan event from which we will learn and emerge stronger. But other than 1.5 years of Covid, we are in the most prosperous, lower disease and most peaceful times of history. So now people are afraid that good times will not last and sky will fall. Don't think anyone is talking about long term. Just short term. We have gone high fast.
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Post by richardsok on Jan 19, 2021 21:30:20 GMT
Hello, Bob --
Pleasure to hear from you again. If you're up for it, let's do lunch again soon..... outside venue, of course. Helmut -- unfortunately the link you provided doesn't seem to work. Could you tell us more about SHARING HISTORY? Author?
THE FOURTH TURNING looks interesting. I'm going to see if our local library system has it. Thanks, java.
Now back to topic ====
A biting, often sarcastic website I frequent every week is TAKIMAG.COM. They come up with new stuff daily, and , true, while it can be outrageous at times, takimag is never dull. Evidently woke folks haven't discovered it yet.
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Post by helmut on Jan 19, 2021 22:42:36 GMT
richardsok... Helmut -- unfortunately the link you provided doesn't seem to work. Could you tell us more about SHARING HISTORY? Author?
I'm not sure why the link does not work for you. Just type sharinghistory.com into your browser. It is light read that will take about five minutes on each her post, but it will rekindle memories of important historical events of the past. For me it is a nice way to start the day. The author is my younger daughter. When she told me she wanted to major in history my first thought was, "great, she will never get a job". Soon after college she found her writing skills were a natural fit for marketing and has done quite well. She is now a V.P. for cloud storage company. Hope you enjoy. helmut
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Post by FD1000 on Jan 20, 2021 4:29:54 GMT
"Gundlach is rather pessimistic about the LT future." I recently read in Howard Marks memo that bond folks are pessimistic and stock folks are optimistic and that is also needed by profession they are in. Though that may not be sufficient reason to dismiss Gundlach pessimism but good to be aware of the bias he has. I am very optimistic about the LT future though less so about short term US LG stocks at current valuation. Sorry to tell that I have been reading/listening to both Gundlach and Marks. Gundlach has been wrong so many times, especially he looks like a fool when he said the 10 years treasury will be at 6% in 2021( link)... then see below DBLTX biggest DBL fund performance. So, before he shows up on TV he better excel running DBLTX Total Return % (01/19/2021) 1-Year..3-Year....5-YearDBLTX......................................3.44.....4.14.......3.33 Category (PI).............................6.97.....5.42...... 4.75 Marks have been writing many articles over the years mostly BS and covering his a$$. Let's look at a memo I just happen to open from 5/11/2020( link), See attached In May 11 2020 Marks was not confidence, but I was very confidence, after all, you make a lot more money after a black swan, specially if you sold before it. In June 18 2020 ( link) Marks again has no clue about the future, the SP500 is now up another 20% since his memo. Attachments:
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Post by retiredat48 on Jan 20, 2021 18:49:14 GMT
Hello, Bob -- Pleasure to hear from you again. If you're up for it, let's do lunch again soon..... outside venue, of course. R48: OK...I'm tied up for a little while. I'll call you, for sure.THE FOURTH TURNING looks interesting. I'm going to see if our local library system has it. Thanks, java. When we lunch, I can loan you the book. It would have taken a month, according to our local library, to get it system-wide; so I simply bought it.
R48
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Post by Norbert on Jan 21, 2021 12:01:25 GMT
Just finished reading "Masters and Commanders" by Andrew Roberts.
The subject of the book is WW II: Roosevelt and Churchill; and their two top military leaders Marshall and Brooke. It's a detailed account of how they waged the war, their strategies, and their disagreements.
Looking back it all seems obvious, but at the time it was anything but obvious. For example, Marshall wanted to attack Germany via France in 1942, while Churchill and Brooke felt that victory there would be impossible at that stage. They proposed focusing on North Africa and the Mediterranean at first, waiting for Germany to weaken before landing in France.
It's a fascinating presentation of the political, military, and personal issues that led to an Allied victory in 1945.
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Post by chang on Jan 31, 2021 7:16:47 GMT
This fantastic book by Tristan Needham: www.amazon.com/Visual-Complex-Analysis-Tristan-Needham/dp/0198534469If you ever took "complex analysis" in college, you will know something about this. Complex analysis is the theory of differentiable ("analytic") functions of a complex variable. It is a very different theory than ordinary calculus, because there are deep geometrical truths buried in the theory of complex variables which do not exist in the theory of single- or multivariable calculus. To get a flavor of what's in the book, here's something copied from the preface: an amazing proof that (d/dx)tan x = 1 + tan 2x [= sec 2x] using no prior knowledge of calculus or trigonometry. The power of a picture can be extraordinary.
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Post by richardsok on Feb 5, 2021 4:34:17 GMT
Chang --- I'm not going to delve into my lifelong angst ( jealousy? shame?) when confronted with the mathematically literate. Nor will I recount memories of my dumbfounded terror that college freshman autumn when I sat obtuse in Calc 101. (Or was it Trig?) I don't even know what course it was. But your post brought it all back. Thanks a bunch.
Now then, my recommendation. For you who have Amazon Prime, I believe you'll greatly appreciate THE CHINA HUSTLE, a documentary of fraud in Chinese securities listed on NASDAQ and NYSE. Well worth the watch.
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dgva
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Post by dgva on Feb 10, 2021 1:15:09 GMT
Just started "The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations" by Daniel Yergin.
Chose this because many years ago, I was impressed by Yergin's earlier work: "The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power". I found the Prize to be information-packed, and for me, insightful about the economic and geo-political impacts of oil.
The "New Map" is pretty dense reading, similar to "The Prize".
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Post by steadyeddy on Feb 10, 2021 1:31:51 GMT
Future has a strange attribute.. what you expect doesn't always happen. Typically, future only rhymes with the past mainly because human emotions are eternally consistent [greed, fear, lust, and passion].
Nothing special about fourth turning, most religions that are centuries old have predicted cycles, again, because human emotions are eternally consistent.
May we meditate for a few minutes every day to calm our minds.
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Post by retiredat48 on Feb 10, 2021 18:10:13 GMT
Future has a strange attribute.. what you expect doesn't always happen. Typically, future only rhymes with the past mainly because human emotions are eternally consistent [greed, fear, lust, and passion]. Nothing special about fourth turning, most religions that are centuries old have predicted cycles, again, because human emotions are eternally consistent. May we meditate for a few minutes every day to calm our minds. "The Fourth Turning" book (written decade + ago) postulates that the start of the fourth, or "CRISIS" stage starts with a catalyst that historians will point to. Like, the great depression/WWII started with the 1929 market crash. The book authors speculated on five situations they saw as possible for the next fourth turn. One of these was: "The Center for Disease Control and Prevention announce the spread of a new communicable virus. The disease reaches densely populated areas, killing some. Congress enacts mandatory quarantine measures. The president orders the National Guard to throw prophylactic cordons around unsafe neighborhoods. Mayors resist. Urban gangs battle suburban militias. Calls mount for the president to declare martial law."Hmmm. Quite prescient, no? R48 R48
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Post by steadyeddy on Feb 10, 2021 19:01:52 GMT
Future has a strange attribute.. what you expect doesn't always happen. Typically, future only rhymes with the past mainly because human emotions are eternally consistent [greed, fear, lust, and passion]. Nothing special about fourth turning, most religions that are centuries old have predicted cycles, again, because human emotions are eternally consistent. May we meditate for a few minutes every day to calm our minds. "The Fourth Turning" book (written decade + ago) postulates that the start of the fourth, or "CRISIS" stage starts with a catalyst that historians will point to. Like, the great depression/WWII started with the 1929 market crash. The book authors speculated on five situations they saw as possible for the next fourth turn. One of these was: "The Center for Disease Control and Prevention announce the spread of a new communicable virus. The disease reaches densely populated areas, killing some. Congress enacts mandatory quarantine measures. The president orders the National Guard to throw prophylactic cordons around unsafe neighborhoods. Mayors resist. Urban gangs battle suburban militias. Calls mount for the president to declare martial law."Hmmm. Quite prescient, no? R48 R48 We had viruses pop up in 2009, 1968, and 1957 where they were declared pandemics... perhaps they weren't as disastrous as COVID (or 1918 spanish flu). Most scientists have cautioned against viruses for decades. Many movies were made on outbreaks. So, is it prescient that the fourth turning book mentions a pandemic? NO! Cycles are part of any natural system including societies. And at the peak of the cycle, a CRISIS will emerge to alter the structure in place in order to make way for a new cycle. All the best.
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Post by retiredat48 on Feb 11, 2021 0:23:50 GMT
"The Fourth Turning" book (written decade + ago) postulates that the start of the fourth, or "CRISIS" stage starts with a catalyst that historians will point to. Like, the great depression/WWII started with the 1929 market crash. The book authors speculated on five situations they saw as possible for the next fourth turn. One of these was: "The Center for Disease Control and Prevention announce the spread of a new communicable virus. The disease reaches densely populated areas, killing some. Congress enacts mandatory quarantine measures. The president orders the National Guard to throw prophylactic cordons around unsafe neighborhoods. Mayors resist. Urban gangs battle suburban militias. Calls mount for the president to declare martial law."Hmmm. Quite prescient, no? R48 R48 We had viruses pop up in 2009, 1968, and 1957 where they were declared pandemics... perhaps they weren't as disastrous as COVID (or 1918 spanish flu). Most scientists have cautioned against viruses for decades. Many movies were made on outbreaks. So, is it prescient that the fourth turning book mentions a pandemic? NO! Cycles are part of any natural system including societies. And at the peak of the cycle, a CRISIS will emerge to alter the structure in place in order to make way for a new cycle. All the best. turn), for it to be a catalyst. You are correct eddie. But a couple of buts: But those virus episodes of the last couple decades did not meet the "widespread and modestly severe" category. Some were way more severe, but not easily spread/limited spread. And yes, pandemics have been predicted and are on many investor radars as "can happen"...just like a dirty nuclear bomb over NYCity could happen. Books written on pandemic futures. However, one has to be in a period that appears going from the 3rd turning (unraveling) to crisis (4th turn) for it to be a catalyst. That's the primary theme of the book. Historically, we could be there. Or, is 12 years of ZIRP, 0% rates, when it ends, a catalyst? Or giving everyone $2000 repeatedly, the end? Or national debt skyrocketing? One should simply be aware that very bad outcomes can sometimes come from bad practices (like no-doc mortgages etc of 2009). R48
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Post by steadyeddy on Feb 11, 2021 1:40:19 GMT
We had viruses pop up in 2009, 1968, and 1957 where they were declared pandemics... perhaps they weren't as disastrous as COVID (or 1918 spanish flu). Most scientists have cautioned against viruses for decades. Many movies were made on outbreaks. So, is it prescient that the fourth turning book mentions a pandemic? NO! Cycles are part of any natural system including societies. And at the peak of the cycle, a CRISIS will emerge to alter the structure in place in order to make way for a new cycle. All the best. turn), for it to be a catalyst. You are correct eddie. But a couple of buts: But those virus episodes of the last couple decades did not meet the "widespread and modestly severe" category. Some were way more severe, but not easily spread/limited spread. And yes, pandemics have been predicted and are on many investor radars as "can happen"...just like a dirty nuclear bomb over NYCity could happen. Books written on pandemic futures. However, one has to be in a period that appears going from the 3rd turning (unraveling) to crisis (4th turn) for it to be a catalyst. That's the primary theme of the book. Historically, we could be there. Or, is 12 years of ZIRP, 0% rates, when it ends, a catalyst? Or giving everyone $2000 repeatedly, the end? Or national debt skyrocketing? One should simply be aware that very bad outcomes can sometimes come from bad practices (like no-doc mortgages etc of 2009). R48 Agree with you. I do not want to hype "The Fourth Turning" book though Things will continue to deteriorate until the next "spring" arrives... whatever that means to each of us. May the Force be with you !!
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Post by Norbert on Feb 11, 2021 7:08:38 GMT
retiredat48 "Or, is 12 years of ZIRP, 0% rates, when it ends, a catalyst? Or giving everyone $2000 repeatedly, the end? Or national debt skyrocketing? One should simply be aware that very bad outcomes can sometimes come from bad practices (like no-doc mortgages etc of 2009)." Interesting post. Although "debts don't matter" thinking has been with us for decades, money printing (QE) by central banks is a more recent phenomenon. Mailing thousands of dollars to individuals is also new. (I received mine although I don't need the money and live overseas.) At first QE was controversial, but now it's seemingly standard fare. Our leaders are convinced that recessions are unacceptable for political reasons. There's such confidence in the power of Government and the Fed, which drove interest rates to nothing, that a narrative has developed: nothing can possibly go wrong that the Government can't fix. Covid-19 came along, people got spooked, but then realized that the Government has got our backs. No one has looked back since, never mind the virus mutations and lockdowns. We're not in Kansas anymore. Modern finance can do anything.
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 11, 2021 18:05:26 GMT
If modern finance can do anything, then what is it that can do nothing?
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Post by retiredat48 on Feb 11, 2021 19:03:56 GMT
If modern finance can do anything, then what is it that can do nothing? Michigan Football! Check that...a PE ratio where the bottom number is zero earnings. R48...R2,064,000 (in bitcoin)
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Post by uncleharley on Feb 11, 2021 19:14:54 GMT
If modern finance can do anything, then what is it that can do nothing? Michigan Football! Check that...a PE ratio where the bottom number is zero earnings. R48...R2,064,000 (in bitcoin) Thanks, I agree.
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stats
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Post by stats on Feb 11, 2021 23:13:21 GMT
This fantastic book by Tristan Needham: www.amazon.com/Visual-Complex-Analysis-Tristan-Needham/dp/0198534469If you ever took "complex analysis" in college, you will know something about this. Complex analysis is the theory of differentiable ("analytic") functions of a complex variable. It is a very different theory than ordinary calculus, because there are deep geometrical truths buried in the theory of complex variables which do not exist in the theory of single- or multivariable calculus. To get a flavor of what's in the book, here's something copied from the preface: an amazing proof that (d/dx)tan x = 1 + tan 2x [= sec 2x] using no prior knowledge of calculus or trigonometry. The power of a picture can be extraordinary. This is a great book. I love these visual proofs. When teaching I always tried to bring proofs like this into the classroom. Almost makes me want to un-retire. stats
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Post by richardsok on Feb 17, 2021 3:49:08 GMT
Falk: A Reminiscence
Starts as a mystery where nothing is as it seems. At a miserable Asian backwater port, the local riverboat tug captain refuses to take a newly minted young captain's ship down river because he thinks the young guy is a rival for a girl. (He isn't.) Unable to navigate across the treacherous river sandbars, the young captain searches the town slums for a drunken ex-pat first mate who might be able to help him. But the tug captain is one step ahead of him. He knows the bum will never work so long as he has a couple of dollars in his pocket for his next day's drinking... and keeps him supplied with just enough loose change. So the mystery turns into comedy. But the tug captain, an enormous, bluff slob of a man is too painfully shy to declare himself to the girl, and carries in him a dreadful secret – and its revelation turns the tale into a horror. And so forth. I enormously appreciate Joseph Conrad, but this novella might be my favorite.
"He who hath known the bitterness of the Ocean shall have its taste forever in his mouth....."
"I have known the sea too long to believe in its respect for decency....."
"By pretending hard enough, we come to believe anything – anything to our advantage....."
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Post by richardsok on Feb 21, 2021 1:32:02 GMT
America's Bank: The Epic Struggle to Create the Federal Reserve by Roger Lowenstein.
I just finished this. Too many characters in the long story of counter-ideas, influence peddling and arm-twisting to recount. But it is interesting to see how business & economic thought have changed in the last century and how the competing ideas of many slowly jelled into landmark legislation to create the Fed. One thing that struck me is how peoples' opinions back then could actually evolve with real debates and in the force of events -- unlike today where our opinions are molded into concrete with our own closely believed "facts". The 1907 Panic changed a lot of opinions. Even William Jennings Bryant, whose entire career was a fiery Jacksonian hatred of big banks and business at last gave Pres Wilson a discreet nod to go ahead with the new bill.
A side note: the columnist George Will (someone I've admired for decades) has, over the years, consumed barrels of ink in excoriating Woodrow Wilson -- but everything I read in the book presented him as thoughtful, cautious and reasonable once he decided that, yes, an American central bank WAS necessary, and it was time for the Democrats to lay aside their old class superstitions.
A mystery.... back in 1913, intelligent people understood that the Fed would exist to increase and restrict money supply as economic conditions might warrant. Well, if this was so clearly understood in 1913, how did the Fed and the entire government fail so dreadfully in the 1930s? The book doesn't address the question. I'm going to have to read a biography of Wilson and of pre-WWI America.
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