Going in?

[Deleted]

I picked up an investment grade bank preferred in the Zombie Apocalypse scare of 2020 in the $16-$18 range.
In the market collapse of 2008, early 2009, picked up a few in the $8-$10 range.

[bobfl]

Apr 22, 2022 23:10:05 GMT @django said:

I picked up an investment grade bank preferred in the Zombie Apocalypse scare of 2020 in the $16-$18 range.
In the market collapse of 2008, early 2009, picked up a few in the $8-$10 range.

Those are the beautiful moments that make investing fun.
My concern about getting in now is that there may be another "Zombie Apocalypse scare" (There ALWAYS is). This time due to the FED trying to reach their normalized rates. Just look at the market Friday when the forecast changed to two .75 hikes.  But if I screw up and don't get in right, I can always catch it on the other side when the FED cause a hard landing.

[anitya]

Apr 22, 2022 19:30:55 GMT bobfl said:

I said I would go back in when the 4% Investment Grades hit 6% at about a 20% discount because that level of income is my target.
That was a couple of weeks ago. Thought I had a while to wait. But they started hitting 6% today. Scratching my head, what is the bottom price range?  Wish I knew.

Are you referring to investment grade bonds or preferred stock?  If bonds, please share which ones are yielding 6%, unless they are borderline high yield?  It looks like high yield spreads are only at 3.5%.

[bobfl]

Apr 23, 2022 22:24:03 GMT anitya said:

Apr 22, 2022 19:30:55 GMT bobfl said:

I said I would go back in when the 4% Investment Grades hit 6% at about a 20% discount because that level of income is my target.
That was a couple of weeks ago. Thought I had a while to wait. But they started hitting 6% today. Scratching my head, what is the bottom price range?  Wish I knew.

Are you referring to investment grade bonds or preferred stock?  If bonds, please share which ones are yielding 6%, unless they are borderline high yield?  It looks like high yield spreads are only at 3.5%.

These are preferreds. Look at the spreadsheet under the "Preferreds" post. Most are on that spreadsheet. 

[bobfl]

Just venting. I don't expect anyone to read this because it will not apply to anyone. When I heard inflation, I bailed. That has been my rule. Hard to sell out everything and takes a while to convince myself to do it. Made a homemade spreadsheet for 60+ preferreds I decided to watch. Went all back in May 3-6, because surprisingly, suddenly they started hitting my target yield. Now the total portfolio is up 11.93% since May 1. Doesn't make sense. So that will have to reverse unless that was the final shock to the IG market this cycle and May 3-6 was truly the bottom of this cycle. Unlikely. Regarding this upside move, I know the market is forward-looking but how clear is the vision? Maybe if year-over-year inflation shows a significant move down in November that might make sense. But if the Fed has to do a sudden increase(s) in rates because the inflation isn't dropping, another leg down will happen. So bye-bye the 11.93% gain. We know there will be a fixed income rally once they finally slow inflation, but when will that happen? And will they have to keep the rates high to maintain the low inflation for a while? The only hope that inflation will do a quick reversal is if the drop in the real estate market slams down the economy. Not sure the war stopping would do much. A "real" recession is good psychologically for fixed income because the Feds will slow down but just saw that a recession hasn't slowed inflation more than .5 to 1%. So the forwarding-looking market is saying inflation is controlled. But down to 2%? Unlikely. I said I would not look at my portfolio until this cycle was over. Should have stuck to that. Certainly can't feel good because there could be turbulence ahead. The market is solid, and knows exactly what will happen, until it doesn't, which happens constantly. Like everyone knew there would be a half percentage rate hike until a couple of days prior to the June 15th meeting when the Wall Street Journal said 3/4. Then the market crashed for a short while. What do I attribute this current rally to? Don't know. Certainly, no facts to support it.

[alvinthechipmunk]

Powell and Yellen are too dove-ish, to my mind. Will they ever get out from behind the Curve? I have a big stake in Financials, and so I was glad to see what happened today. Nat. Resources fund did even better. Is it justified by Reality? No. Many years ago, I noticed a very simple but important market phenomenon: Mr. Market ALWAYS OVERREACTS, both to the upside and the downside. 

[bobfl]

Jul 29, 2022 22:36:55 GMT alvinthechipmunk said:

Powell and Yellen are too dove-ish, to my mind. Will they ever get out from behind the Curve? I have a big stake in Financials, and so I was glad to see what happened today. Nat. Resources fund did even better. Is it justified by Reality? No. Many years ago, I noticed a very simple but important market phenomenon: Mr. Market ALWAYS OVERREACTS, both to the upside and the downside. 

Very true.  And it can be very quick. Remember back in the 80's when to buy a stock we had to call the broker, put in an order and wait to see if he/she got the stock and the price. Now it is instant. So market sentiment (right or wrong) is expressed quickly. (Plus fast automated machine trading based on triggers.)