ABBV is down today - good opportunity to buy

[kathiel]

ABBV is down today related to an executive leaving in a couple of months.  This is a good opportunity to buy.

[johnsmith]

Why/what makes it a good opportunity to buy?

[kathiel]

It has been going up and up, the 6% dip is the best price I've seen in a while.

[uncleharley]

Good call!!!

[bb2]

Humira, 40% of sales is about to face competition. That's about all I know off the top of my head but I'd look into this a bit more beyond a 6% recent drop.

[kathiel]

ABBV has spent the last few years preparing for Humeria to go off-patent. They purchased Allergan (which owns Botox), and have a very healthy pipeline of drugs.

Do your own due diligence.

[bb2]

Also, Humira situation isn't a secret and so, should be accounted for in the stock price. I get skeptical when a company uses an acquisition to boost sales, like Nvidia tried to do with AMD as sales stalled. Not saying there's not not a great reason for an acquisition. Allergan actually seems like a good move as ABBV supposedly has an effective sales arm. Pharma investing is so much work and other than PFE, my second largest holding, I leave it alone but for an occasional flyer just for fun. Hey Kathiel - any idea why the recent run-up in ABBV? 50% since last Nov is quite a move.

Edit:  And do you think the move is warranted?  And why?

[Deleted]

There are a number of reputable, if not always reliable, discounted cash flow calculations available. It does not appear to be a bargain as far as price. As Kathie notes, every investor needs to weigh the costs and benefits of a purchase. Not just ABBV, but a number of health care stocks have run up. I opted to cut half my stake - I think I calculated that was worth 15 years of dividends. I would not be surprised to see it go up or down. Personally, I would not purchase at this time. With that said, there are several stocks I have bought that are not fairing well at the moment. In other words - I just do the best I can.

[kathiel]

bb2, I think the run-up in price has to do with both the money they are making now and the great pipeline they have. I think it is a very well-run company.

I mentioned Botox because it is unlike the other drugs they have. While cancer drugs are the ones people talk abut in terms of how high the prices are, cosmetic drugs are a cash cow for pharmas, as insurance doesn't pay for them, so the patient pays full price. When insurance covers a drug, they negotiate a price with the Pharma, so the Pharma gets less money.

The day I posted, April 13, ABBV was down 6.5% so if you bought that day, you would have already made money on the stock. It was over $175 that day and is now at $162.

[Deleted]

Years ago - was living in London - so it must have been around 2014 - watching business news and Boeing starts dropping like Wile.E.Coyote off a cliff with the anvil above him. I am on Morning* forum - I ask - does anyone know what's going on? No answer. I scan the internet - some sort of accounting issue. I finally decide to buy it - and I buy a lot. One of the best purchases I ever made. It was news that quickly resolved. No basis. This is the kind of news - similar to an executive change at ABBV - that creates a buying/trading opportunity. Of courses - if it is a key executive leaving - different issue. When I saw the news on ABBV - and I did see it before Kathie's post - I saw it wasn't material - but I wasn't in the market. I think it is GREAT that Kathie alerted the group and hope we all do that, because money can be made. Thank you Kathie!

[bb2]

Concerning Vuity, I saw mention of it in one of these threads, I'm thinking it's not going to be a reason to buy ABBV. New York Times had a piece written by a user back in Feb.

www.nytimes.com/2022/02/02/well/live/vuity-eyedrops-reading-glasses.html

"Not only did my eyes retain their bloodshot, rheumy cast during the five days I used the drops, my close-up vision never improved significantly enough to make reading glasses redundant. The drops burned as they went in, too. I’m not talking about an acid kind of pain, more like a lash in your eye, but still unpleasant."

"But overall, the drops did not pull their weight enough to justify spending approximately $3 per day for a 30-day supply. And they most certainly did not offer the extended clarity I need when I’m reading. I kept giving the drops another chance until it occurred to me that I’d never revisit a toothpaste that gave me bad breath or a moisturizer that made me itch."

Reviews give it a 1.5 of 5 for effectiveness and satisfaction each.

[kathiel]

I agree with you, bb2, I don't think Vuity is a reason to buy ABBV. (I have read reviews by people who use it very successfully). ABBV has quite a pipeline, so there are many drugs to consider.

[bb2]

Ouch. We now have more clarity. Funny how the market never factors in what's been clearly telegraphed until the numbers hit. In this market, punishment is swift.

[bb2]

I hadn't heard of this organization, ICER but I had read about the Texas couple who fund it.

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4822973/

And M* has taken notice, by raising uncertainty for a few pharmas, ABBV included.

"Morningstar now directly incorporates cost-effectiveness analysis into our biopharmaceutical ratings through what we're calling our capsule system. Given the lack of regulatory oversight on whether U.S. drug launch prices or price increases are justified, an independent, private organization—the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review, or ICER—has gained prominence and authority assessing cost-effectiveness. Drugs that are priced above ICER's cost-effectiveness thresholds or that record high unsupported price increases contribute to Morningstar's ESG Risk Rating Assessment and equity research methodology for incorporating environmental, social, and governance risk into our fair value estimates and moat and uncertainty ratings.

Using our capsule system, we think that AbbVie, Amgen, Biogen, Johnson & Johnson, and Vertex Pharmaceuticals have the largest excessive deviations from cost-effective pricing for a significant portion of their branded drug portfolios. We have raised our uncertainty ratings for AbbVie, Amgen, and Vertex to high from medium because of their lower capsule number and high reliance on branded drug sales in the United States."

[marquay]

Is this still a good opportunity to buy? Thanks

[Deleted]

Sure watching it. 4% yield now.