comlb
Lieutenant
Posts: 68
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Gilead
Apr 1, 2022 13:33:45 GMT
Post by comlb on Apr 1, 2022 13:33:45 GMT
wondering if anyone has looked at Gilead? The stock has done nothing for five years, but they have continued to grow the dividend, which is now at 4.9%.
I think the story is -
1) dominant HIV franchise that generates bulk of sales, around $18b per year (out of ~$27b total) 2) there are no imminent patent cliffs on the core, there though some competition from ViiV/GSK.
3) Gilead has long tried to find/augment growth beyond HIV. Previous management invested in Kite (Cell Therapy), but this has not worked so far (still under $1b in annual revenue). The purchase price was $12b
4) New management, ex-Roche, went all in on Immunomedics, which has a promising start in oncology. It will take awhile, but M* estimates they could earn $7b annually from Trodelvy by 2030. The purchase price was $21b. There are multiple Phase 3 potential catalysts for Trodelvy this year
It does not seem like they have solved their long term problem yet, it seems like they will need to do another large deal to fully replace HIV business. The cash balance was over $30b before the two big deals on Kite and Immunomedics. Now it is $9b, which is not bad, but not enough to do another deal. They will have continue to grow the cash balance from HIV and Immunomedics/Trodelvy success and then make another deal in the next few years to refill the pipeline. Meantime, the dividend yield is high and the payout ratio is a reasonable 57%, which should allow for some growth.
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Gilead
Apr 1, 2022 13:47:44 GMT
Post by win1177 on Apr 1, 2022 13:47:44 GMT
Long time holder of GILD, and we still have a small capital loss which I might take soon. But yes, I’m watching it and may buy some more if it dips a little. It’s a “gamble” on whether they will be able to bring future therapeutics to markets, in the next 5-10 years. It’s probably NOT a “quick buck” type of investment, but one that over the long term they develop some new products. I may add below $58.
Win
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Gilead
Apr 1, 2022 14:00:04 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Apr 1, 2022 14:00:04 GMT
The daily chart indicates that it has been dipping since the 1st of this yr. GILD seems to be consolidating now and is likely to make a run to $66 or so. The 4.9% dividend is attractive. My question is, what drives the price up & down. The price history indicates that it just keeps swinging in a wide trading range & hasn't really gone anywhere for a few yrs. It is a candidate for a swing trade.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 1, 2022 14:18:02 GMT
I have a tendency to not revisit dividend investments that did not work out for me - for various reasons. GILD is one. I don't even remember the particulars - but it was full of promise and didn't deliver. This was well over 5 years ago. Others in this camp - HSBC, GSK, CMP, BTI. Didn't lose money (that's ANOTHER group!) but wasn't making money and there were other better options.
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Gilead
Apr 1, 2022 18:42:20 GMT
Post by bb2 on Apr 1, 2022 18:42:20 GMT
That's the trouble when you have a drug that cures a disease. (Hep C.) Had it but sold a some years back, when revs on Solvadi started drying up. I've gone to just holding IBB - too much work to hold individual biopharma and got tired of reading FiercePharma/biotech. I still have some Ionis, which I'm working hard to get back to zero on.
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Gilead
Apr 1, 2022 22:15:52 GMT
Post by kathiel on Apr 1, 2022 22:15:52 GMT
I hold some GILD. The stock price has done nothing, but it has a nice dividend. I'm content (for now) to hold on and see whether one of their drugs turns into a blockbuster.
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