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Post by retiredat48 on Oct 4, 2023 4:40:46 GMT
Section 19a notices are out for PDI, PDO*, PAXS*. These just indicate monthly shortfalls in distributions that are covered by ROC. Final ROC is only after the yearend. Also, persistent 19a may mean distribution cuts in future. *Term-structures While this is correct, there is a good chance for a "get-out-of-jail-free" card. And that is: PIMCO/PDI did a lot of "swaps" in Q1 and Q2. They swapped income for future capital gains. You ask, who would do this swap? Remember banks with deposit concerns...who wanted immediate income to bolster balance sheets. So the banks get income thru year, and PIMCO will get cap gains, let's say early December. Problem is, accounting rules do not permit PIMCO to show cap gains as amortized earnings. So the ROC has to be shown for monthly payment. But in December if cap gains realized, it can then be used immediately to offset shortfalls, taking year 2023 ROC to zero. It is sources/swaps like this that allowed PIMCO as late as last year to pay a goodly "year end bonus dividend." .My memory is the special was about a 3% dividend last year. If that is accumulated this year it could go a long way in mitigating any dividend cut Will this happen? I do not know. I understand the mechanics. I see the accounting dilemma. We shall see...I will be holding through December. Seems doubtful as a minimum that a year-end-special divy will be paid. I typically use the dividends for RMDs...spend them. Three months ago I changed to full monthly dividend reinvestment on PIMCO CEFs.. R48
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Post by xray on Oct 11, 2023 15:55:35 GMT
retiredat48, Good Morning R48.... Looking at "numb3rs", PDI and PDO are lower than their last years "average crash numbers" and are yet to be stable in a volatile market. They finished (COB 10/7) with their NAV's of 16.46/16.91 and MktPrc's of 11.92/11.67. My current numbers for them do not make them current buy's IMHO. However, always however's it would always depend on the "reason and rationale" for current buying (might be worth looking at the Insider buying activity MktPrc's history) .... For what it is worth/Single opinion of course.... Live Long and Proper....
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Post by FD1000 on Oct 16, 2023 23:37:44 GMT
Reminder, I started this thread to state my opinion about one of the most known CEFs managed by one of the best FI team in the world. I'm not trolling and interfering with other threads. PDI continues to stink, it is down for 2023. It lags SPY, the easiest index on the planet for 1-3-5 years by a huge margin. As usual, only TR matters. PDI chart looks awful too. I never cared about great valued funds because undervalued stuff can go on for months and years. Yes, PDI is a "bargain" as it was many times in the last several years. It doesn't matter if you held it 10 years, in the last 5 years PDI has been a poor choice. If you held it in 2023, you are trailing SPY by at least 16%. schrts.co/HrdAbXWr
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Post by retiredat48 on Nov 23, 2023 16:52:25 GMT
The following post is in a style fashioned by FD1000:
Congratulations to all those who took the guidance and bought PDI at the MACD crossover time, 26 October 2023, buying at $15.53/share. Today PDI is $17.60/share, or a gain of 13+%, along with receiving the continuing monthly dividend at yields far above ten percent.
R48
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Post by richardsok on Nov 23, 2023 18:08:45 GMT
Pimco UNII numbers are out. Several funds are definitely improving. Latest 3-month coverages are:
PHK 100%, PFL 94%, RCS 112%, PDI 86%, PAXS 134% (!), PTY 94%
Interesting is PAXS. 3-mo 134%, 6-mo 115%, YTD 115% -- yet it shows no positive UNII. (Seems odd.)
None of the funds show any meaningful UNII.
Happy Thanksgiving, anyway. (FD style.)
------------------
FWIW Am big time over-allocated in PDI, (bought in the last few weeks) -- smaller amounts in PGP, PAXS and PDX (formerly NRGX, just purchased yesterday). Will probably add to PAXS on Monday. I know there's more gears whirring under the hood than what we see on the UNII chart, but the coverages do seem compelling. Still 13% distribution and NAV appears to have bottomed.
MEMO to Bob: I see yr point. Am adding AVUV onto my watchlist, tho it's a bit more volatile than I like. Shows shorter term bullish signals.
MEMO to Harley: ( Confidence vs complacency? ) Admire yr style.
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Post by bb2 on Nov 23, 2023 22:00:26 GMT
Anything bonds was a very clearly telegraphed "avoid" at the regime change. Now, as richard has done, maybe a little bounce back but no where near as clear as the "drop to be" was a couple years ago. To have held on to Pimco PDI since $25 was cultish. Or just lazy, which I completely understand.
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Post by retiredat48 on Nov 25, 2023 16:10:12 GMT
richardsok,, who posted: "MEMO to Bob: I see yr point. Am adding AVUV onto my watchlist, tho it's a bit more volatile than I like. Shows shorter term bullish signals. " ----------------------- Thanks for heads-up re AVUV. Briefly, how do you get this fund on your watchlist? Compare charts? Top momentum list? Source you use? TIA R48
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Post by retiredat48 on Nov 25, 2023 16:25:27 GMT
Anything bonds was a very clearly telegraphed "avoid" at the regime change. Now, as richard has done, maybe a little bounce back but no where near as clear as the "drop to be" was a couple years ago. To have held on to Pimco PDI since $25 was cultish. Or just lazy, which I completely understand.Hi bb2 ,...my bold added above. Since I don't consider myself cultish or lazy, how about other reasons to have held two years ago? How about PDI having 11-12% dividend yields at that time, offering offsets to potential price declines. How about that PDI has never cut its distribution, and did not cut during last two years...and so far holding. How about those who actually held PCI without the PDI huge discount, to find that the PIMCO merger was to their disadvantage in outcome (shame on you PIMCO). How about the knowledge that PDI holds assets such as mortgages which, while show market-to-market declines (discounts to par face values) in price/value, are still mortgages that are eventually paid off with NO DISCOUNTS. That is, long term cap gains built in. How about that in hindsight it was not easy to project the fed taking short interest rates to 5+%, and mortgages getting to 8% in historically fast time periods. Did you post (or foresee) two years ago that mortgages would get to 8% or above? A cut in distribution dollars could occur, but will still be at a very high attractive final yields...ie is this priced in? Fact is, for many, the distribution yields have offset the price declines and many investors are still in positive positions. So a disaster period that shows no total return loss, to me is not a disaster. Disclosure...as posted above, three months ago I changed my monthly PDI distributions to "auto-reinvest, buy more shares." Good day. R48
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Post by archer on Nov 25, 2023 16:32:37 GMT
retiredat48, Offsetting price decline? Wasn't it was more like the price decline offset it's yield?
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Post by Norbert on Nov 25, 2023 17:30:48 GMT
Anything bonds was a very clearly telegraphed "avoid" at the regime change. Now, as richard has done, maybe a little bounce back but no where near as clear as the "drop to be" was a couple years ago. To have held on to Pimco PDI since $25 was cultish. Or just lazy, which I completely understand.Hi bb2 ,...my bold added above. Since I don't consider myself cultish or lazy, how about other reasons to have held two years ago? How about PDI having 11-12% dividend yields at that time, offering offsets to potential price declines. How about that PDI has never cut its distribution, and did not cut during last two years...and so far holding. How about those who actually held PCI without the PDI huge discount, to find that the PIMCO merger was to their disadvantage in outcome (shame on you PIMCO). How about the knowledge that PDI holds assets such as mortgages which, while show market-to-market declines (discounts to par face values) in price/value, are still mortgages that are eventually paid off with NO DISCOUNTS. That is, long term cap gains built in. How about that in hindsight it was not easy to project the fed taking short interest rates to 5+%, and mortgages getting to 8% in historically fast time periods. Did you post (or foresee) two years ago that mortgages would get to 8% or above? A cut in distribution dollars could occur, but will still be at a very high attractive final yields...ie is this priced in? Fact is, for many, the distribution yields have offset the price declines and many investors are still in positive positions. So a disaster period that shows no total return loss, to me is not a disaster. Disclosure...as posted above, three months ago I changed my monthly PDI distributions to "auto-reinvest, buy more shares." Good day. R48 How about PDI total returns being down 20% since January 2020, yet PDI is still trading at a 6% premium ? Highly leveraged bond funds got clobbered during the interest rate pop. (Unfortunately, am ignorant about PDI's actual holdings.) By the way, Wellesley is up 4% over the same period ... and you labeled Wellesley a "disaster" (or similar) in another post. 😳 N.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Nov 25, 2023 18:25:02 GMT
Hi bb2 ,...my bold added above. Since I don't consider myself cultish or lazy, how about other reasons to have held two years ago? How about PDI having 11-12% dividend yields at that time, offering offsets to potential price declines. How about that PDI has never cut its distribution, and did not cut during last two years...and so far holding. How about those who actually held PCI without the PDI huge discount, to find that the PIMCO merger was to their disadvantage in outcome (shame on you PIMCO). How about the knowledge that PDI holds assets such as mortgages which, while show market-to-market declines (discounts to par face values) in price/value, are still mortgages that are eventually paid off with NO DISCOUNTS. That is, long term cap gains built in. How about that in hindsight it was not easy to project the fed taking short interest rates to 5+%, and mortgages getting to 8% in historically fast time periods. Did you post (or foresee) two years ago that mortgages would get to 8% or above? A cut in distribution dollars could occur, but will still be at a very high attractive final yields...ie is this priced in? Fact is, for many, the distribution yields have offset the price declines and many investors are still in positive positions. So a disaster period that shows no total return loss, to me is not a disaster. Disclosure...as posted above, three months ago I changed my monthly PDI distributions to "auto-reinvest, buy more shares." Good day. R48 How about PDI total returns being down 20% since January 2020, yet PDI is still trading at a 6% premium ? Highly leveraged bond funds got clobbered during the interest rate pop. (Unfortunately, am ignorant about PDI's actual holdings.) By the way, Wellesley is up 4% over the same period ... and you labeled Wellesley a "disaster" (or similar) in another post. 😳 N. I'm such a disaster. I hold both for different reasons. Wellesley is to control volatility, and PDI is to produce lots of income. According to M*, I am down ~16% on PDI. However, I have collected more than half of that in distributions, which I invested in other products or spent. I just turned PDI on reinvest for a few months because I don't currently need the income, it will produce even more than it does now, even with a price drop. And I hope for a price increase when the rate drama subsides. I look at PDI like an annuity. Wellesley keeps chugging along, hitting singles. Both work for my simplistic uses. Take care, - RM
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Post by steelpony10 on Nov 25, 2023 18:50:30 GMT
I think some may miss this point with CEF’s one never has to sell any shares for income in all markets. With equities one needs to cash in shares to live on in all markets.
The whole discussion seems like the usual apples to oranges. Do you want a steady paycheck and a good idea what’s coming in next year or roll the dice and maybe make more?
I thought as a retiree I was supposed to take a more conservative approach, the bird in hand where market fluctuations don’t matter as much.
Most posters should know how to manage spending and know the end game. You spend to your personal limits leaving something to heirs or dump a great deal or everything along with your life time of effort down the independent living, assisted living or skilled nursing drain.
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Post by Norbert on Nov 25, 2023 19:02:56 GMT
I think some may miss this point with CEF’s one never has to sell any shares for income in all markets. With equities one needs to cash in shares to live on in all markets. The whole discussion seems like the usual apples to oranges. Do you want a steady paycheck and a good idea what’s coming in next year or roll the dice and maybe make more? I thought as a retiree I was supposed to take a more conservative approach, the bird in hand where market fluctuations don’t matter as much. Most posters should know how to manage spending. You spend to your personal limits leave something to heirs or dump everything along with your life time of effort down the LTC drain. Sure, I get it. Don't need to reopen the "seed corn" debate. There's more than one way to invest. Assuming the dividend isn't cut at some point, it doesn't really matter what the price does. If you don't mind a (temporary?) 20% net loss over three years, no problem whatsoever. Me, I'm not OK with that.
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Post by steelpony10 on Nov 25, 2023 19:20:44 GMT
Norbert , I see a temporary loss of value due to unknowns one can’t control. I started at DOW 750 so it’s just down in value after being up in value to someday be up in value again. I make nothing and lose nothing until I cash out. Of course you’re right. If I depended on markets I guess I’d be more concerned and have more health problems. 🍀
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Post by anitya on Nov 25, 2023 20:44:07 GMT
When I had invested in multiple PIMCO multisector CEFs, I had a spreadsheet to show the portfolio differences between each of them. Since then we have three new ones: PDO, PAXS, and PDX, and there seems to be a lot more interest in them. If any one has put together a spreadsheet with portfolio composition of the PIMCO multisector CEFs, please share.
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Post by Norbert on Nov 25, 2023 20:46:30 GMT
No dependence on markets? Excellent !
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Post by richardsok on Nov 25, 2023 22:40:12 GMT
Hi Bob –
In answering, I will SERIOUSLY try not to repeat recent posts.
When we first started discussing my book about ten months ago, Norbert criticized my method for not being mathematically rigorous. Although I have tried to make Lo Volatility techniques as follow-the-dots as possible, I have to admit a certain amount of judgment does creep in. . For example, how to determine what is “Low Volatility”? It turns out that LV funds like USMV and FDLO charts are just as zig-zag as any other might be. Though they are comprised of LV stocks (in theory), there's nothing low vol about the package as a whole.
At first I tried taking a one-year chart and simply counted the number of Parabolic-SAR Buy/Sell signals – the fewer the signals, the lower the vol, I thought. Wrong. Volatility measurement, as I see and use it, must take into account time measurement – iow, HOW MANY TRADING DAYS OF A NEW MOVEMENT does it take for a new signal to flash – as well as HOW FAR the price had to move to trigger that new signal?
. Say I own fund ABC priced at 50. Say it often takes just ONE DAY to leap or drop 3 points (flashing a new signal), even though it has relatively few new signals. By my definition, that is a volatile fund. It gives me no chance to exit before damage is already done.
Now look at XYZ, priced at 70. Say it takes FOUR DAYS for the fund to drop to 62 on a typical move, but any two point move will trigger a “sell” signal to pop up in the mean time. Even though XYZ often moves further than ABC, I say it is lower volatility fund.
Wallstreetmojo and other sites define volatility, but I find them pretty useless for my purposes. I believe textbook definition would say XYZ was more volatile because it often moves further.
. As far as AVUV is concerned, I just went through a list of small cap ETFs with large AUM and picked out one of the best among a pretty bad lot (IMO). It is too volatile for PPS on thinkorswim, or even 3x15 MAs -- but I just got a MACD "buy" on Nov 10.
.
Some funds and stocks I currently watch are MSFT, KO, PDT, DIAX, USA, PTA, LDP. FPF, YYY and BRK/B. There are others, but you get my drift. I would guess hi-vol stock & funds out-number the lo-vols by about 100-to-1. I have already discussed what signals I use. Won't go into detail here.
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Post by archer on Nov 25, 2023 22:58:16 GMT
richardsok, "I have to admit a certain amount of judgment does creep in." Perhaps somewhere there is a balance of science and art for successful investing. Also the definition of success is not only the % of good calls vs bad, but also how good the good calls are. The art part is knowing how much value to attribute to the different TA methods one is considering, at least for those who look at more than one. At some point I think instinct comes in. It's like learning to throw a ball accurately. Sure, you look at the target, but there really isn't a way to "aim" like with other projectiles. No visual point as to where in the throw to release the ball. At some point it is a matter of experienced judgement which some seem to develop an aptitude for, and others not so much, and others don't even bother. I put myself in the not so much group, at least when it comes to trading. As for throwing balls, I guess I'm OK for my age. :-)
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Post by yogibearbull on Nov 25, 2023 23:19:25 GMT
We have to wait to see how PDX, the renamed and changed energy NRGX, evolves. Changes just became effective on 11/21/23, LINK. Any published portfolio info (M*, Yahoo Finance, etc) is useless. Objectives have changed from energy emphasis (80%+) to general stocks, bonds/credit, alternatives with only 25%+ in energy. So, it is a multi-asset hybrid fund, not a multisector bond fund. www.pimco.com/en-us/investments/closed-end-funds/dynamic-income-strategy-fund"...allocation among multiple fixed income sectors...in developed and multiple emerging global credit markets...fund normally invests at least 25% of its total assets (i.e., concentrates) in the energy industry...(and after lots of words on bonds/credit, just this)...The fund may also invest without limit in common stocks and other common equity securities issued by public or private issuers." The old manager lineup included 1 for equity, 1 for commodities, 1 for bonds/credit. 2 old managers for equity and commodities are continuing. Now 3 more have been added for bonds/credit that include Ivascyn & Murata. So, in the new manager lineup, there is 1 for equity, 1 for commodities, 4 for bonds/credit. It's unclear what its stable stocks-bonds-alternatives allocation will be (besides being "dynamic"). I am not sure when the new portfolio holdings will be public. As for multisector bond PDI, PDO, PAXS, they are quite similar but PDI has perpetual life, while PDO, PAXS have newer term-structures with 12.0-13.5 year life. More importantly, PDX will be different from these.
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Post by anitya on Nov 26, 2023 3:44:57 GMT
When the Yahoo Finance NAV symbol for PDX becomes available, may be someone can post here. I have XPDXX as a placeholder for it but not sure if that would work.
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Post by mnfish on Nov 26, 2023 12:05:40 GMT
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Post by yogibearbull on Nov 26, 2023 13:50:01 GMT
When the Yahoo Finance NAV symbol for PDX becomes available, may be someone can post here. I have XPDXX as a placeholder for it but not sure if that would work. That is good first guess for CEF NAV tickers, but CEFConnect is showing it as XPDX only. That is also not recognized yet by Yahoo Finance.
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Post by retiredat48 on Nov 26, 2023 16:03:42 GMT
Norbert,...Hi. You're doing like FD, cherry picking a start date for PDI (poor)performance. Fact is, very few posters were buying PDI then, a period when premiums got to 30+%!! Rather PCI was the CEF de jour with a small premium or none, holding similar fixed income assets. So while a decline in PCI occurred as well (along with PCI merge), it was much less severe. Lastly, to all: careful of using extreme peak or bottom data points in measuring returns. Example...during the 1970's, the HUNT Brothers tried to corner the silver market, shorting a lot. However, for a one day period silver price per ounce went from single digit to over $80/share. Trouble is, it only lasted a day. One could not get their silver assets out and sell them. And no one bought, However, that data point exists as the peak in silver, completely distorting the market performance forever, to this day. R48
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Post by retiredat48 on Nov 26, 2023 16:12:47 GMT
Hi Bob – In answering, I will SERIOUSLY try not to repeat recent posts. ...post culled. . As far as AVUV is concerned, I just went through a list of small cap ETFs with large AUM and picked out one of the best among a pretty bad lot (IMO). It is too volatile for PPS on thinkorswim, or even 3x15 MAs -- but I just got a MACD "buy" on Nov 10. . Hi R...I am familiar with your investing methods. The question was how do you come up with funds to be on your watch list? Like above, "what list of small cap ETFs with large AUM??" Sources you use?? Like Yahoo or others? TIA R48
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Post by archer on Nov 26, 2023 16:14:57 GMT
True about cherry picking, but the trends over greater than a one year period, should still be noted.
But as for the OP, perhaps the trend is changing. If price continues to go up, the bargain is as good as it will get until another dip.
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Post by richardsok on Nov 26, 2023 16:33:04 GMT
Hi Bob – In answering, I will SERIOUSLY try not to repeat recent posts. ...post culled. . As far as AVUV is concerned, I just went through a list of small cap ETFs with large AUM and picked out one of the best among a pretty bad lot (IMO). It is too volatile for PPS on thinkorswim, or even 3x15 MAs -- but I just got a MACD "buy" on Nov 10. . Hi R...I am familiar with your investing methods. The question was how do you come up with funds to be on your watch list? Like above, "what list of small cap ETFs with large AUM??" Sources you use?? Like Yahoo or others? TIA R48 THAT'S all you wanted? I just Googled SMALL CAP ETFS LIST and ran the larger AUMs through my charting. Very sophisticated, highly skilled stuff. Show some respect.
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Post by Norbert on Nov 26, 2023 21:16:37 GMT
Norbert,...Hi. You're doing like FD, cherry picking a start date for PDI (poor)performance. Fact is, very few posters were buying PDI then, a period when premiums got to 30+%!! Rather PCI was the CEF de jour with a small premium or none, holding similar fixed income assets. So while a decline in PCI occurred as well (along with PCI merge), it was much less severe. Lastly, to all: careful of using extreme peak or bottom data points in measuring returns. Example...during the 1970's, the HUNT Brothers tried to corner the silver market, shorting a lot. However, for a one day period silver price per ounce went from single digit to over $80/share. Trouble is, it only lasted a day. One could not get their silver assets out and sell them. And no one bought, However, that data point exists as the peak in silver, completely distorting the market performance forever, to this day. R48 You make a good point that starting in January 2020 the PDI premium fell hard. PDI NAV returns since then are almost flat (albeit with high volatility). So, much of the PDI 20% decline was just the premium being cut. N.
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Post by liftlock on Nov 29, 2023 14:04:43 GMT
We have to wait to see how PDX, the renamed and changed energy NRGX, evolves. Changes just became effective on 11/21/23, LINK. Any published portfolio info (M*, Yahoo Finance, etc) is useless. Objectives have changed from energy emphasis (80%+) to general stocks, bonds/credit, alternatives with only 25%+ in energy. So, it is a multi-asset hybrid fund, not a multisector bond fund. www.pimco.com/en-us/investments/closed-end-funds/dynamic-income-strategy-fund"...allocation among multiple fixed income sectors...in developed and multiple emerging global credit markets...fund normally invests at least 25% of its total assets (i.e., concentrates) in the energy industry...(and after lots of words on bonds/credit, just this)...The fund may also invest without limit in common stocks and other common equity securities issued by public or private issuers." The old manager lineup included 1 for equity, 1 for commodities, 1 for bonds/credit. 2 old managers for equity and commodities are continuing. Now 3 more have been added for bonds/credit that include Ivascyn & Murata. So, in the new manager lineup, there is 1 for equity, 1 for commodities, 4 for bonds/credit. It's unclear what its stable stocks-bonds-alternatives allocation will be (besides being "dynamic"). I am not sure when the new portfolio holdings will be public. As for multisector bond PDI, PDO, PAXS, they are quite similar but PDI has perpetual life, while PDO, PAXS have newer term-structures with 12.0-13.5 year life. More importantly, PDX will be different from these. Well stated. One thing we do know about PDX is that the discount to NAV is 10.63% as of 11/28/23. Furthermore, the uptrend in NAV and market price appears to be intact. The current discount provides some downside protection and an opportunity for it to move closer to the NAV once the new distribution policy and asset allocation / holdings become more clear. I am expecting PIMCO will announce an distribution before year end and will be interesting to see what the number is and whether there will be large capital gains due to the repositioning of the portfolio away from the energy sector. I like the sound of the new strategy and continue to hold a large position.
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Post by anitya on Dec 2, 2023 0:42:27 GMT
When the Yahoo Finance NAV symbol for PDX becomes available, may be someone can post here. I have XPDXX as a placeholder for it but not sure if that would work. That is good first guess for CEF NAV tickers, but CEFConnect is showing it as XPDX only. That is also not recognized yet by Yahoo Finance. 10 days since the change in investment mandate and ticker but still can not figure out the NAV ticker. Neither XPDX nor XPDXX is still cognized by Yahoo Finance. What is interesting is the change in investment mandate has not resulted in change in distribution amount. Dec dividend declaration is posted on PIMCO site. The quarterly distribution is not changed: still once a quarter and still 0.22c per quarter which comes to less than 4% p.a. distribution on the NAV. It will be interesting to see if price will take a hit on Monday when shareholders realize the 4% distribution is less than what stable NAV Money Markets are paying. BTW, no change in monthly distribution for December on other PIMCO CEFs. P.S.: I was checking out insider ownership and noticed that Dan Ivascyn owns 2.17M shares at an average cost so low that he doubled the value of his investment not counting the dividends he has received.
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Post by archer on Dec 2, 2023 1:03:16 GMT
2.17M shares generates over $477,000 per month in distributions. Must be nice! At some point NAV erosion and Div cuts become irrelevant, but I guess that depends on ones life style. I'm happy for him. Edit: I see I was mistaken PDI for PDX. Time to practice my reading skills I guess.
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