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Post by FD1000 on Mar 12, 2022 22:16:52 GMT
How many times have you heard that PDI is a bargain and now it's really a good time to buy. BTW, the chart below includes all the dist, except the last one. You just can't make it up after 16% down from the top. The second chart shows the total returns in the last 3 years of...PDI -2.8%...SPY=58.7%...VBIAX=36.10...PIMIX=9.1%. Basically, the best BOND team in the world, PIMCO, lost money for their clients in the last 3 years with one of their best CEF funds. Attachments:
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Post by xray on Mar 13, 2022 20:26:19 GMT
FD1000, Could be. The insiders are buying.... ---------- GuruFocus Stockman Wealth Management, Inc. insiderFebruary 8, 2022 As of 2021Q4, Stockman Wealth Management, Inc. owns 205 stocks with a total value of $490 million. These are the details of the buys and sells. New Purchases: SCHE, BTI, CGW, ETHO, PDI, SPSB, AVGO, FDX, ITW, DSI, ESML, ADP, STZ, MU, TSN, WFCPL.PFD, Added Positions: MMM, USO, FPE, FTSL, BMY, SCHB, QQQM, INTC, IBM, NWE, MDU, T, O, BUD, KHC, HON, PSX, SCHX, UL, PDO, VTI, GBCI, MRK, KRP, SYY, WBA, V, SPY, XLY, USA, EPD, FIBK, AMZN, SCHZ, SOFI, SOFI, AGG, GSK, SCHF, SCHA, XOP, BAC, BAX, BDX, KO, DHR, DUK, EFA, GOOGL, AIO, BSTZ, PGR, UNH, PNNT, Reduced Positions: GE, LMBS, MSFT, PFE, PFXF, VCSH, EMQQ, SLB, SCHW, KMI, HD, RSP, SCHD, AAPL, CSCO, SCHM, BRK.B, ORCL, QCOM, XOM, QQQ, TGT, JEPI, GIS, BMEZ, IVV, PEP, DIS, QQQJ, ABT, LOW, SPTM, VUG, TMO, MGK, IWM, EFC, VFC, RTX, UNP, PAYX, MMC, GGG, LLY, AXP, Sold Out: COIN, VER, PCI, BSV, VIAC, C, LMRK, VTRS, ---------- Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by FD1000 on Oct 2, 2023 13:46:35 GMT
PDI is the poster child of the CEF world. It is managed by the one of the best fixed income team in the world. PDI lost -6.9% in the last 5 years and that's hard to "beat". BTW, the chart includes all the distributions and also shows that even VMFXX=cash made more. In layman terms is means that if you invested $100K in PDI, you have now just over $93K. Sure, you got more than $50K distributions, but it didn't change the fact that your total account shows only $93K. Attachments:
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Post by Norbert on Oct 2, 2023 14:58:35 GMT
How many times have you heard that PDI is a bargain and now it's really a good time to buy. BTW, the chart below includes all the dist, except the last one. You just can't make it up after 16% down from the top. The second chart shows the total returns in the last 3 years of...PDI -2.8%...SPY=58.7%...VBIAX=36.10...PIMIX=9.1%. Basically, the best BOND team in the world, PIMCO, lost money for their clients in the last 3 years with one of their best CEF funds.
How could it possibly be a "bargain" if it's still trading at a 4% premium? |
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Post by retiredat48 on Oct 2, 2023 16:09:28 GMT
FD1000 , xray , Norbert ,...I have a huge disconnect here with FD's post. You see, PDI is bonds/fixed income...not companies/businesses/stocks. Bonds are contractual instruments, not growth instruments. As such, barring default, one gets their money back at maturity. So the more any bond goes below par, the BETTER THE OVERALL INVESTMENT BECOMES, BARRING DEFAULT. So will PDI have a high default rate? Perhaps some...it comes with high yield bond investing territory. But PDI also has some AAA rated bonds. consider the hit the mortgage part of portfolio took...mark-to-market declines below par. If PIMCO just waits, all these mortgages will eventually be paid off by mortgage holders (homeowners). Homeowners get no discount...must pay in full. So cap gain recovery. Investors realize this. An issue is also the use of leverage. Not really a good time to be borrowing short/lending long. But PIMCO is readjusting this and there will be a neutral or favorable position coming soon. If concerned, don't buy leveraged products. In short, bonds do not go to zero. BUY LOW. Accept the high yield now while you wait for the stabilization or upturn in prices. BTW This could be said also for the thousands of bond funds out there. With each day of falling prices, they become BETTER BUYS, NOT WORSE. R48
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Post by yogibearbull on Oct 2, 2023 16:19:25 GMT
Similar to PDI but with term-structure and also from Ivascyn + Murata is PAXS at about 4% discount. It is misunderstood simply because it is newer.
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Post by uncleharley on Oct 2, 2023 17:33:36 GMT
PDI will be a bargain when the net value begins to trend up.
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Post by FD1000 on Oct 2, 2023 18:19:35 GMT
bargain = sarcasm. In the last several years I have not liked CEFs and posted many times about it.
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Post by archer on Oct 2, 2023 19:00:33 GMT
For people who want to allocate some or all of their PF to income for whatever reason, and not concerned with total return, below is a comparison of SPY vs PDI based on price movement harvesting the same amount from each whether by divs or withdrawals (in the case of spy) 5 years ago if you bought 100 shares of PDI for $1868, ($18.68/share) today those shares would be worth $1722. The value of your shares should you want to sell is $146 less than you bought it for. -$146 (-7.84%) The above is as per sharpcharts set to 5 years. However over the past 5 years PDI paid out $1320 @ $22.00/mo, so, for $146 you got $1320. You still could have done better, but as I wrote in the first paragraph above, that wasn't the goal. If you had invested that same $1868 in SPY 5 years ago, and withdrew $22/month, the value of your purchase would be down 8.57% for a loss of $158 leaving a current value of $1711. Looking at it that way PDI did better. Performance for SPY can be verified here. I am surprised to find these results. I expected PDI to fare much worse. If I include PDI in PV Spy is by far the winner. However I can't find fault with my calcs above. I think PV is not correctly accounting for PDI maintaining its number of shares when setting up withdrawals. As shown if you set it for "display income" the amount of income declines every year, when in fact it stayed the same over the years at $.22/share, according to the M* chart. |
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Post by yogibearbull on Oct 2, 2023 19:14:19 GMT
For people who want to allocate some or all of their PF to income for whatever reason, and not concerned with total return, below is a comparison of SPY vs PDI based on price movement harvesting the same amount from each whether by divs or withdrawals (in the case of spy) 5 years ago if you bought 100 shares of PDI for $1868, ($18.68/share) today those shares would be worth $1722. The value of your shares should you want to sell is $146 less than you bought it for. -$146 (-7.84%) The above is as per sharpcharts set to 5 years. However over the past 5 years PDI paid out $1320 @ $22.00/mo, so, for $146 you got $1320. You still could have done better, but as I wrote in the first paragraph above, that wasn't the goal. If you had invested that same $1868 in SPY 5 years ago, and withdrew $22/month, the value of your purchase would be down 8.57% for a loss of $158 leaving a current value of $1711. Looking at it that way PDI did better. Performance for SPY can be verified here. I am surprised to find these results. I expected PDI to fare much worse. If I include PDI in PV Spy is by far the winner. However I can't find fault with my calcs above. I think PV is not correctly accounting for PDI maintaining its number of shares when setting up withdrawals. As shown if you set it for "display income" the amount of income declines every year, when in fact it stayed the same over the years at $.22/share, according to the M* chart. Good idea. I outlined something similar a while ago. I thought I posted on it here but I cannot find it on search. Anyway, here is a link from MFO. www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/61187/income-vs-total-return/p1 |
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Post by FD1000 on Oct 2, 2023 19:30:22 GMT
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Post by keppelbay on Oct 2, 2023 19:36:26 GMT
You are right about the distributions, but you forgot about the additional year end special distributions. In addition to the 22.05c/month PDI paid out year end specials equivalent to an extra 4.8 months over the period. Your multiplier should be 64.8 months x .2205 = 1428
Clearly, these funds are not for everyone. An adept trader could do even better, but even for a buy and holder their cashfow is remarkable. PDI inception NAV was $25. From inception in May 2012 to date PDI has distributed $38.13 (roughly 150% of the initial investment). NAV is currently 16.65. So even if we assume NAV will never improve and call the 8.35 difference from start a loss, the cash distributed is still over 100% and long term return would be over 200% if sold at NAV today.
NAV is down over this rate hike period, and market price is down even more. Some folks really dislike these funds, perhaps more than the total return numbers actually merit...
(edited for typos etc)
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Post by FD1000 on Oct 2, 2023 19:43:01 GMT
I'm looking at 1-3-5 years not 10. CEFs were good until 2018. It's similar to VALUE vs Growth. Value is far behind, over 10 years, let's discuss 20 years. A good trader can do great and definitely better with stocks. And CEFs are not safe bonds. PDI has worse SD, Sharpe and Max draw than SPY in the last 5 years. That's a triple knockout. I think I made my point. BTW, PDI another 2+% loss today...SP500 = 0% Attachments:
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Post by retiredat48 on Oct 2, 2023 20:41:52 GMT
FD1000 , xray , Norbert , retiredat48 , yogibearbull , uncleharley , archer , keppelbay , Well for six months now I have had a standing offer on this forum, and the Fidelity Forum: I will bet that in the next five years (dividends reinvested), PDI will BETTER the S&P500 index, in TOTAL RETURN.No takers to date. All hat, no cattle out there!  R48
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Post by FD1000 on Oct 2, 2023 20:45:54 GMT
Well, I don't invest based on predictions, especially not years in the future since 2000.
Why 5 years? let's talk 20 years.
I'm posting against CEFs at least 3-4 years now.
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Post by steelpony10 on Oct 2, 2023 20:58:04 GMT
retiredat48 , Ha. Ha. I’m not betting against that happening. Five years is key to your offer. If it does though someone will argue the math which I was under the impression was an exact science. I have a small herd of those cash cows. 🐄
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Post by uncleharley on Oct 2, 2023 21:33:18 GMT
retiredat48 , Ha. Ha. I’m not betting against that happening. Five years is key to your offer. If it does though someone will argue the math which I was under the impression was an exact science. I have a small herd of those cash cows. 🐄 Me too!! |
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Post by archer on Oct 3, 2023 1:24:52 GMT
I still think PV isn't accounting for the distributions correctly, or something else is wrong with how they are assessing PDI performance. 1 million $ of PDI 5 years ago, bought 53,533 shares. Not counting year end distributions, PDI distributed $11,777/month or $141,327/yr, or $706,638 over 5 yrs on those shares. PV is not displaying consistent distributions of $.22/share/mo when not reinvesting income. Instead it shows different income every year, and less of it. At some point today PDI was going for $17.22/share. If all distributions were taken rather than reinvested, the $53,533 shares would be valued at $921,838. Add the $706,638 and you have a total value of over $1.6 mil. PV is showing as of the end of Sept a value of only $515,975, a 5 yr decline of 52%. Sharpcharts is showing a decline of only 9.41% Does anyone see an error in how I am looking at this? Are any of the following a mistake? Oct 2 2018 PDI closed at $18.68/share. (I should have used the opening price but the effect would be miniscule). Oct 2 2023 PDI averaged around $17.00/share. Without reinvesting divs the number of shares remained constant. Not counting yr end distributions PDI paid out a consistent $.22. Any of the above math incorrect? |
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Post by FD1000 on Oct 3, 2023 3:13:16 GMT
Stockchart: SPY vs PDI for 5 years as of 9-30-2023= schrts.co/KKArMenD = Total performance...SPY=59.8%...PDI=(-6%)...maybe missed one dist. www.cefconnect.com/fund/PDI: look at performance as of 9/30/2023 for 5 years = (-0.9%). PV( link): SPY vs PDI per 5 years: total performance: SPY=59.6%...PDI=(-7.3). Not far, maybe missed 2 dist. M*( www.morningstar.com/cefs/xnys/pdi/performance). PDI 5 years average=(-0.9) and equal to CEFconnect. Bottom line: PDI lost money in 5 years and SPY made about 63% more. If you took income, SPY is still superior because Total performance counts the most, after all it includes all the distributions. |
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Post by Norbert on Oct 3, 2023 10:31:33 GMT
Well, I don't invest based on predictions, especially not years in the future since 2000. Why 5 years? let's talk 20 years. I'm posting against CEFs at least 3-4 years now. Smart man! It's easier to invest based past performance. Never mind whether current prices offer value or not.
Since the S&P 500 trounced PDI over the past five years, it's obviously the better investment going forward.
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Post by Norbert on Oct 3, 2023 10:56:16 GMT
I still think PV isn't accounting for the distributions correctly, or something else is wrong with how they are assessing PDI performance. 1 million $ of PDI 5 years ago, bought 53,533 shares. Not counting year end distributions, PDI distributed $11,777/month or $141,327/yr, or $706,638 over 5 yrs on those shares. PV is not displaying consistent distributions of $.22/share/mo when not reinvesting income. Instead it shows different income every year, and less of it. At some point today PDI was going for $17.22/share. If all distributions were taken rather than reinvested, the $53,533 shares would be valued at $921,838. Add the $706,638 and you have a total value of over $1.6 mil. PV is showing as of the end of Sept a value of only $515,975, a 5 yr decline of 52%. Sharpcharts is showing a decline of only 9.41% Does anyone see an error in how I am looking at this? Are any of the following a mistake? Oct 2 2018 PDI closed at $18.68/share. (I should have used the opening price but the effect would be miniscule). Oct 2 2023 PDI averaged around $17.00/share. Without reinvesting divs the number of shares remained constant. Not counting yr end distributions PDI paid out a consistent $.22. Any of the above math incorrect? Archer, You are correct. FD's SPY vs. PDI comparison is misleading. Five years ago on October 3, 2018, a share of PDI cost $33.83. Yesterday PDI closed at $17.28. So, an original investment of $1M (53,098 shares) was only worth about $500K yesterday, not counting dividends. Using M* Portfolio, I see that the $1M PDI investment would have been worth $898,418 yesterday if all dividends had been reinvested into new shares (at a constantly declining price). That's what PV is assuming.
However, if an income investor took the divvies as cash and didn't buy more PDI shares, he or she would indeed now have about $702K in cash plus the shares worth about $500K. PV doesn't add up the dividend payments to present a more complete picture.
A PDI investor who didn't reinvest the dividends is up 20% over five years, as of yesterday from a total return perspective! Not down 9%.
Hope that helps, N.
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Post by mnfish on Oct 3, 2023 11:10:00 GMT
archer , "Oct 2 2018 PDI closed at $18.68/share. (I should have used the opening price but the effect would be miniscule)." Pimco website shows PDI had a market price of $33.70 on 10/1/2018 and $34.04 on 10/2/2018. So, the number of shares purchased would have been no more than 33,279. 33,279 shares x .2205 div/mo paid $88,056 a year. 2018 SpecDiv $.50 = $16,640 2019 SpecDiv $.42 = $13,977 2020 None 2021 None 2022 Spec Div $.65 = $21,631 2023 ??
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Post by FD1000 on Oct 3, 2023 12:58:13 GMT
Directly from the Pimco site, and they do their own calculation ( www.pimco.com/en-us/investments/closed-end-funds/dynamic-income-fund), see attachment. mmm...so all the sites are not accurate: stockchart, M*, www.cefconnect, Pimco, and others. To the idea that...something that did poorly, must do better in the years to come. Examples: 1) Grantham GMO was wrong since 2010. 2010 ( link) "Over the next seven years, GMO forecasts large-cap U.S. stocks to deliver a real return (after inflation) of 1.3% annually, while small-caps provide a 0.5% return." "International stocks also fare reasonably well in GMO's model, up about 4.7%, while emerging markets come in with a 3.9% annualized gain." FD: reality( link): SPY made 14.4%...IWM 11.9%...EEM 3%. One of the worse misses in the history of predictions. 2) Value vs QQQ. See 5 years, then another 5 years. 2010-2015 ( link)...2015-2020 ( schrts.co/eKHVzcse) BTW, expenses are really "low"... Total Expense Ratio (including interest expense) = 5.12%Anyway...moving on. Attachments:
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Post by yogibearbull on Oct 3, 2023 14:27:46 GMT
archer , my data from PV and StockCharts almost checkout. PV Run, 10/1/18-9/30/23, w/o reinvestments, PDI start $1,000,000, end $515,975, or -48.40% loss. StockCharts 10/2/18-10/1/23 (note dates to account for site peculiarities), PDI -9.14% (this for adjusted-prices, similar to reinvested values), _PDI -49.6% (this for actual-prices; close enough to -48.40%). Applying -5% uniform withdrawal (-$4167/mo) since PDI Inception, PV -5% Since Inception has start $1,000,000, end $1,902,608. Income investors should look at that in comparison to other income vehicles (e.g. moderate-allocation), not all stock benchmark SP500. So, PDI did better than VWENX but not as well as SP500. Looking at details, PDI was easily beating SP500 until the pandemic hit. Post-pandemic rate environment has been among the toughest, so PDI has lagged during and after the pandemic. When you take distributions out, these sites don't care what happened to it - may be it was all spent or invested elsewhere, so adding it back isn't done.
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Post by archer on Oct 3, 2023 14:47:20 GMT
Thanks for pointing out that I was wrong on the initial share price 5 years ago. I remember prices being in that neighborhood. Below is a chart showing the $18.68 price I was using that shows the price at the beginning of the 5 year period. Any ideas why stockcharts isn't showing ~$33? chart |
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Post by keppelbay on Oct 3, 2023 14:58:23 GMT
64.8 months at 0.2205/month = $14.22 in distributions over the priod + your 18.68/share price = $32.90. As this is very close to the $33 figure you mention, it seems likely that stockcharts is adjusting the price for distributions. I imagine there must be someone here who uses stockcharts regularly and could let us know whether stockcharts in fact do that.
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Post by retiredat48 on Oct 3, 2023 14:58:39 GMT
Well, I don't invest based on predictions, especially not years in the future since 2000. Why 5 years? let's talk 20 years. I'm posting against CEFs at least 3-4 years now. I chose five years for the bet, as I will be dead in 20 years! My life expectancy is about 9 years; I shorten it to five based on posting on forums  FD, Your negativity to PDI shows with incessant cherry picking backtesting to your dates and SPY for comparison. Yet you are afraid to bet SPY will win in next five years. Choose any investment you want...I will take PDI. cluck......cluck......chicken R48 |
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Post by yogibearbull on Oct 3, 2023 15:00:37 GMT
Thanks for pointing out that I was wrong on the initial share price 5 years ago. I remember prices being in that neighborhood. Below is a chart showing the $18.68 price I was using that shows the price at the beginning of the 5 year period. Any ideas why stockcharts isn't showing ~$33? chartAt StockCharts, PDI is ADJUSTED-prices (for distributions) and _PDI is for ACTUAL-prices. See my earlier post too. |
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Post by yogibearbull on Oct 3, 2023 15:04:19 GMT
Section 19a notices are out for PDI, PDO*, PAXS*. These just indicate monthly shortfalls in distributions that are covered by ROC. Final ROC is only after the yearend. Also, persistent 19a may mean distribution cuts in future.
*Term-structures
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Post by archer on Oct 3, 2023 18:10:47 GMT
Thanks for pointing out that I was wrong on the initial share price 5 years ago. I remember prices being in that neighborhood. Below is a chart showing the $18.68 price I was using that shows the price at the beginning of the 5 year period. Any ideas why stockcharts isn't showing ~$33? chartAt StockCharts, PDI is ADJUSTED-prices (for distributions) and _PDI is for ACTUAL-prices. See my earlier post too. Thanks! That explains it. I knew they factored divs into the % chart, but not the price chart. But, if they didn't adjust the price, it would disagree with the % performance. And thanks to all for addressing my questions in earlier posts. |
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