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Post by fred495 on Sept 25, 2023 1:57:33 GMT
archer , we will have plenty of workers. 10,000 potential new workers just crossed the border yesterday. I'm not sure of the process but those that have crossed are starting to get green cards so they can find jobs. I have not seen any data on the skill levels of those who will receive green cards.
Sorry, Mustang, but you are apparently confusing Green Cards with work permits. Two totally different animals.
According to Reuters, "The U.S. will grant temporary deportation relief and access to work permits to nearly half a million Venezuelans already in the country, U.S. officials said on Wednesday, a move that follows calls by Democrats to help newly arrived migrants work legally.
About 472,000 Venezuelans in the U.S. on or before July 31 now will be eligible for Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for a period of 18 months. Some 243,000 Venezuelans already have the status stemming from a 2021 designation that was renewed last year."
On the other hand, a Green Card allows a non-U.S. citizen permanent residence in the United States. A Green Card, also known as a permanent resident card, grants permanent resident status, which allows a non-citizen to live and work (permanently) anywhere in the United States, and qualify for U.S. citizenship after three or five years. None of these provisions apply to these recent Venezuelan migrants.
Fred
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Post by Mustang on Sept 25, 2023 11:25:50 GMT
You are correct but I could have swore the reporter on the radio said green card. Thanks for the clarification.
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Post by archer on Sept 25, 2023 15:19:48 GMT
Back to how this started, whether it is work permits or green cards, the result is the same as far as having and increase of workers to offset the increasing number of retirees, and maintaining or increasing GDP.
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Post by Mustang on Sept 25, 2023 20:26:02 GMT
Back to how this started, whether it is work permits or green cards, the result is the same as far as having and increase of workers to offset the increasing number of retirees, and maintaining or increasing GDP. More than enough. I heard on this morning's news that 11,000 had crossed the border in the last 24 hours. I really wish I was more optimistic about this but I'm not. What are all of the single men going to do when they can't find jobs? This open border thing was not well thought out.
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Post by Chahta on Sept 26, 2023 14:11:36 GMT
Mustang : "More than enough. I heard on this morning's news that 11,000 had crossed the border in the last 24 hours. I really wish I was more optimistic about this but I'm not. What are all of the single men going to do when they can't find jobs? This open border thing was not well thought out." They will be issued work visas to solve our worker crisis.
I disagree. The "open border thing" was well thought out.
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Post by archer on Sept 26, 2023 14:37:15 GMT
I am guessing covid relief will likely be cited in economic studies for years to come. It isn't often we have a definitive policy of trickle up economics. There has been much grumbling over the years about trickle down, but of course there are more people there to grumble. Lots of money was distributed to the purchasing side and it didn't turn out well longer term. However, due to supply chain issues, what could have had a positive demand and spurred GDP was thwarted. But, positive results from any stimulus, whether to the supply side or the demand side, is illusory if the money is borrowed.
Thinking as I write, while borrowing easily doesn't end well, low interest rates are beneficial to both the supply and demand sides of the economy and helps prevent entrenched debt vs higher rates.
Economics are more complex than I can fathom. I'm sure any idea has a worthy yeah-buttle.
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Post by daddymisc on Sept 28, 2023 13:28:31 GMT
IRA is working for me - got solar panel installed (got discount)-net cost very little after netmeetering, bought an EV (got discount) using it as second car & charging @ home mostly - saving myself from PetroState dictators. I think this was one of the vision of IRA.
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Post by Chahta on Sept 28, 2023 13:45:44 GMT
I am guessing covid relief will likely be cited in economic studies for years to come. It isn't often we have a definitive policy of trickle up economics. There has been much grumbling over the years about trickle down, but of course there are more people there to grumble. Lots of money was distributed to the purchasing side and it didn't turn out well longer term. However, due to supply chain issues, what could have had a positive demand and spurred GDP was thwarted. But, positive results from any stimulus, whether to the supply side or the demand side, is illusory if the money is borrowed. Thinking as I write, while borrowing easily doesn't end well, low interest rates are beneficial to both the supply and demand sides of the economy and helps prevent entrenched debt vs higher rates. Economics are more complex than I can fathom. I'm sure any idea has a worthy yeah-buttle. And the insane deficit spending since. They just can't control themselves. Add in the needless killing of petroleum to raise the price of gasoline and diesel, and we have a perfect storm that will be a mess for a long time. Fighting inflation is only the half of it.....
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2023 14:19:53 GMT
IRA is working for me - got solar panel installed (got discount)-net cost very little after netmeetering, bought an EV (got discount) using it as second car & charging @ home mostly - saving myself from PetroState dictators. I think this was one of the vision of IRA. The Induce Renewables Act
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Post by daddymisc on Sept 28, 2023 16:40:23 GMT
For me - IRA is actually Inflation reduction - my cost for energy is NOT affected by petrostate DICTATORS who are manipulating gas prices. I invest my saved money in fossil fuel companies - I am sure you are not affected by increase in price of gas.
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Post by Chahta on Sept 28, 2023 22:26:55 GMT
Yep, the US is a petrostate dictator. They cut the pumpimg of oil so that demand outstrips supply. Dictators never do what is the best for citizens. It is always about themselves controlling.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2023 23:50:37 GMT
For me - IRA is actually Inflation reduction - my cost for energy is NOT affected by petrostate DICTATORS who are manipulating gas prices. I invest my saved money in fossil fuel companies - I am sure you are not affected by increase in price of gas. USA is a petrostate dictator trying to force EV purchases by curtailing US oil production. The cost of gas is only part of the story. Here's a partial list of products made with petroleum from the U. S. Department of Energy. The purposeful supply curtailing will inflate the prices of all these goods all while subsidizing solar panels, made in China, and electric vehicles with taxes. The added cost of transport of everything is also added inflation. Even EV owners pay the price. www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2019/11/f68/Products%20Made%20From%20Oil%20and%20Natural%20Gas%20Infographic.pdf
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Post by Mustang on Sept 29, 2023 0:54:59 GMT
For me - IRA is actually Inflation reduction - my cost for energy is NOT affected by petrostate DICTATORS who are manipulating gas prices. I invest my saved money in fossil fuel companies - I am sure you are not affected by increase in price of gas. USA is a petrostate dictator trying to force EV purchases by curtailing US oil production. The cost of gas is only part of the story. Here's a partial list of products made with petroleum from the U. S. Department of Energy. The purposeful supply curtailing will inflate the prices of all these goods all while subsidizing solar panels, made in China, and electric vehicles with taxes. The added cost of transport of everything is also added inflation. Even EV owners pay the price. www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2019/11/f68/Products%20Made%20From%20Oil%20and%20Natural%20Gas%20Infographic.pdfIf it is done by an executive order or a department rule change without legislative involvement then it is pretty much a dictate.
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mani
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Post by mani on Sept 29, 2023 10:54:57 GMT
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Post by Chahta on Sept 29, 2023 11:26:48 GMT
We are the problem when the US runs on petroleum. It produces electricity and mines materials. It delivers goods and manufactures them. Any roadblock to exploration and leasing of lands is killing petroleum. It is not only about what is being pumped today. Begging other countries to sell to the US is not a plan. With rising denmand there must be rising sources of oil. I include natural gas in all of this. Good luck killing inflation with a prime mover of the economy causing rising prices.
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Post by newtecher on Oct 6, 2023 0:03:19 GMT
Wholesale gasoline prices have dropped about 15% in the last two weeks and have hit the year's lows. Since retail prices usually follow with a lag of a few weeks, we should see a similar decrease (~60 cents per gallon) in retail gasoline prices very soon.
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Post by newtecher on Oct 13, 2023 0:41:19 GMT
The inflation in August was 0.63% (rounded down to 0.6 in the press release). About 0.4% of that 0.6% is due to the ~11% change in gas prices. Shelter contributed the rest. The used car data contributed negatively (-1.2%, deflationary), as expected in my previous post, though I expected it to be much more negative based on private data. The big drop in used car component of CPI-U will probably happen next month. The CPI-U inflation over the last 12 months (since August 2022) now averages 3.7% annualized. Based on TIPS pricing, the expected (breakeven) inflation is approximately 1.9% annualized over the next 6 months and 2.5% over the next year. I still believe it will be lower, in part because I am expecting a recession within the next 6 months or so. I believe the student loan repayment restarting in October is a big and sudden drag on the economy, equivalent to fiscal tightening by 0.5-1% of GDP, exacerbating the slowdown that has been going on for several months now. My guess is that economic data will turn very negative in Oct-Dec 2023. As I mentioned in another thread, long-term treasuries are a great value right now. I am certainly buying them in all my accounts myself (before the economic data turns negative and the yield drop). The inflation print was 0.4% (very little rounding involved) in September. About 0.2% of that 0.4% is due to shelter. I am not sure why shelter is now accelerating given that real time rent indices are are falling or rising very slowly. The assumption was that it still catching up due to lags but he total increase in CPI-U rents is now larger since 2019 that in private indices. In ether words, the lagged CPI-U measure has caught up already is now running ahead of the real-time private indices. The drop in used car pricing happened but was again much smaller than expected. Based on TIPS pricing, the expected (breakeven) inflation is approximately 2.8% annualized over the next 6 months and 2.3% over the next year.
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Post by newtecher on Oct 13, 2023 0:48:33 GMT
Wholesale gasoline prices have dropped about 15% in the last two weeks and have hit the year's lows. Since retail prices usually follow with a lag of a few weeks, we should see a similar decrease (~60 cents per gallon) in retail gasoline prices very soon. By the way, wholesale gasoline prices are continuing to fall. Oil prices have also returned to the level before the Hamas attack. Retail gas prices have started falling too (down 10 cents from a week ago) but still have a long way (another 50 cents per gallon or so) to go to match the current wholesale prices. That will likely happen over the next couple of weeks and will drive down the October and November inflation numbers.
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Inflation
Oct 13, 2023 1:43:23 GMT
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Post by Chahta on Oct 13, 2023 1:43:23 GMT
Wholesale gasoline prices have dropped about 15% in the last two weeks and have hit the year's lows. Since retail prices usually follow with a lag of a few weeks, we should see a similar decrease (~60 cents per gallon) in retail gasoline prices very soon. By the way, wholesale gasoline prices are continuing to fall. Oil prices have also returned to the level before the Hamas attack. Retail gas prices have started falling too (down 10 cents from a week ago) but still have a long way (another 50 cents per gallon or so) to go to match the current wholesale prices. That will likely happen over the next couple of weeks and will drive down the October and November inflation numbers. But core inflation is becoming relentless.
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Inflation
Oct 13, 2023 2:24:49 GMT
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Post by newtecher on Oct 13, 2023 2:24:49 GMT
By the way, wholesale gasoline prices are continuing to fall. Oil prices have also returned to the level before the Hamas attack. Retail gas prices have started falling too (down 10 cents from a week ago) but still have a long way (another 50 cents per gallon or so) to go to match the current wholesale prices. That will likely happen over the next couple of weeks and will drive down the October and November inflation numbers. But core inflation is becoming relentless. I do not agree. The increase in core from last month to this month is entirely due to shelter, which has inexplicably gone from 0.29% in August to 0.65% in September (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1a4cj )
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Post by acksurf on Oct 13, 2023 12:57:02 GMT
But core inflation is becoming relentless. I do not agree. The increase in core from last month to this month is entirely due to shelter, which has inexplicably gone from 0.29% in August to 0.65% in September (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1a4cj ) Paul Krugman is that you?? Glad to see a Nobel prize winner visiting!
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Post by uncleharley on Oct 13, 2023 13:03:06 GMT
Wholesale gasoline prices have dropped about 15% in the last two weeks and have hit the year's lows. Since retail prices usually follow with a lag of a few weeks, we should see a similar decrease (~60 cents per gallon) in retail gasoline prices very soon. By the way, wholesale gasoline prices are continuing to fall. Oil prices have also returned to the level before the Hamas attack. Retail gas prices have started falling too (down 10 cents from a week ago) but still have a long way (another 50 cents per gallon or so) to go to match the current wholesale prices. That will likely happen over the next couple of weeks and will drive down the October and November inflation numbers. What a difference a day makes! WTIC futures are up 4.78% this morning. Guess where the price og gasoline is going. Nat Gas is at a 10 month high.
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Post by newtecher on Oct 13, 2023 13:29:46 GMT
By the way, wholesale gasoline prices are continuing to fall. Oil prices have also returned to the level before the Hamas attack. Retail gas prices have started falling too (down 10 cents from a week ago) but still have a long way (another 50 cents per gallon or so) to go to match the current wholesale prices. That will likely happen over the next couple of weeks and will drive down the October and November inflation numbers. What a difference a day makes! WTIC futures are up 4.78% this morning. Guess where the price og gasoline is going. Nat Gas is at a 10 month high. If you look at a graph over the last month, you will see what I am talking about. The wholesale gasoline prices have jumped up and down since Oct 6 but are still essentially where they were on Oct 6 (just before the Hamas attack) and at year's lows. We shall see about which way the gasoline prices end up in a few weeks. Sounds like you think they are going up, I think they are going down.
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Post by mnfish on Oct 13, 2023 14:06:39 GMT
I posted this quote in Dec 2022
Gargi Chaudhuri, Head of iShares Investment Strategy, Americas, BlackRock
“The areas that continue to keep inflation higher now lie largely within the services component of CPI, like rent and housing prices. The service components within CPI tend to be stickier – price growth in services takes longer to slow because they are thought to reflect wage growth and don’t have their prices adjusted as much as goods. "Because of this, the move from 5% to 2% year-over-year inflation will not be as easy as the move from 9% to 5% inflation. We continue to believe that inflation will remain stubbornly high and above the Fed’s 2% target in 2023." (added today) "That means we do not expect housing inflation to peak until the third quarter of next year or to fall to the pre-pandemic level until late 2024."
Can we expect home sellers and landlords to drastically lower their prices and when's the last time you read anything about companies planning to slow wage growth?
My girlfriends auto insurance monthly premium just went up 18%.
Krugman "ignore food, energy, housing, and used cars and the war on inflation is over. We've won, at very little cost"
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Post by newtecher on Oct 13, 2023 14:24:16 GMT
I posted this quote in Dec 2022Gargi Chaudhuri, Head of iShares Investment Strategy, Americas, BlackRock (added today) "That means we do not expect housing inflation to peak until the third quarter of next year or to fall to the pre-pandemic level until late 2024." Can we expect home sellers and landlords to drastically lower their prices and when's the last time you read anything about companies planning to slow wage growth? My girlfriends auto insurance monthly premium just went up 18%. Krugman "ignore food, energy, housing, and used cars and the war on inflation is over. We've won, at very little cost" Krugman is being ridiculous but housing inflation peaked in December 2022 (March 2023 for YoY numbers) even for the lagged CPI-U index. The rent inflation peaked in early 2022 according to real-time private indices like Zillow. So "we do not expect housing inflation to peak until the third quarter of next year" is already wrong.
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Post by uncleharley on Oct 13, 2023 20:43:58 GMT
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Post by mnfish on Oct 14, 2023 10:38:45 GMT
I posted this quote in Dec 2022Gargi Chaudhuri, Head of iShares Investment Strategy, Americas, BlackRock (added today) "That means we do not expect housing inflation to peak until the third quarter of next year or to fall to the pre-pandemic level until late 2024." Can we expect home sellers and landlords to drastically lower their prices and when's the last time you read anything about companies planning to slow wage growth? My girlfriends auto insurance monthly premium just went up 18%. Krugman "ignore food, energy, housing, and used cars and the war on inflation is over. We've won, at very little cost" Krugman is being ridiculous but housing inflation peaked in December 2022 (March 2023 for YoY numbers) even for the lagged CPI-U index. The rent inflation peaked in early 2022 according to real-time private indices like Zillow. So "we do not expect housing inflation to peak until the third quarter of next year" is already wrong. I looked at the Zillow Home Value Index and Dec 2022 was $341,524 and Sep 2023 is $348,538 for the US as a whole. S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index was higher in July 2023 than Dec 2022. Zillow Rent Index was $1,975 in Dec 2022 and $2,047 in Sept 2023. So maybe you should update your numbers. Edit to add - "or to fall to the pre-pandemic level until late 2024." The Zillow average home price for the 12 months in 2020 (let's call it mostly pre-pandemic Covid payments) was $254,639 or $93,899 higher than Sep 2023. That would mean that homes may come down 27% on average if his prediction is true.
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Post by mnfish on Oct 14, 2023 10:56:37 GMT
What a difference a day makes! WTIC futures are up 4.78% this morning. Guess where the price og gasoline is going. Nat Gas is at a 10 month high. If you look at a graph over the last month, you will see what I am talking about. The wholesale gasoline prices have jumped up and down since Oct 6 but are still essentially where they were on Oct 6 (just before the Hamas attack) and at year's lows. We shall see about which way the gasoline prices end up in a few weeks. Sounds like you think they are going up, I think they are going down. XOM must be thinking along the same lines as UH. They just paid $60B for Pioneer Resources.
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Inflation
Oct 14, 2023 13:02:35 GMT
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Post by newtecher on Oct 14, 2023 13:02:35 GMT
If you look at a graph over the last month, you will see what I am talking about. The wholesale gasoline prices have jumped up and down since Oct 6 but are still essentially where they were on Oct 6 (just before the Hamas attack) and at year's lows. We shall see about which way the gasoline prices end up in a few weeks. Sounds like you think they are going up, I think they are going down. XOM must be thinking along the same lines as UH. They just paid $60B for Pioneer Resources. I do not think XOM tries to time their purchases this way at all and you should not draw any conclusions from the mere fact of a large acquisition. The last time XOM spent tens of billions was when they acquired XTO in 2010. The gas price at the time of acquisition was about $3 to 4 per mbtu. After the acquisition, the gas prices promptly dropped by about a third and mostly stayed there since then (except for a brief spike in 2022).
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Post by newtecher on Oct 14, 2023 13:07:51 GMT
Krugman is being ridiculous but housing inflation peaked in December 2022 (March 2023 for YoY numbers) even for the lagged CPI-U index. The rent inflation peaked in early 2022 according to real-time private indices like Zillow. So "we do not expect housing inflation to peak until the third quarter of next year" is already wrong. I looked at the Zillow Home Value Index and Dec 2022 was $341,524 and Sep 2023 is $348,538 for the US as a whole. S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index was higher in July 2023 than Dec 2022. Zillow Rent Index was $1,975 in Dec 2022 and $2,047 in Sept 2023. So maybe you should update your numbers. Edit to add - "or to fall to the pre-pandemic level until late 2024." The Zillow average home price for the 12 months in 2020 (let's call it mostly pre-pandemic Covid payments) was $254,639 or $93,899 higher than Sep 2023. That would mean that homes may come down 27% on average if his prediction is true. I think you are confusing price levels and inflation levels. When inflation falls to prepandemic levels, prices still continue to rise, just slowly.
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