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Post by archer on Sept 14, 2023 3:49:50 GMT
Based on the current inflation data and the Fed being hellbent on their 2% target, I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with another hike at the next meeting. I don't think the market is at a place where it is likely to blow off another hike like it has at times in the past. Seems like the 10 year priced it in already. It zoomed up past 4% and has stayed there. Maybe equities can blow off another hike because the economy is still moving ahead. No recession in sight it seems. Good point. I was thinking with the market being sideways for some time now that a hike could cause a drop in equities, but perhaps the current consolidation is due to pricing in the possibility of a hike as per the 10yr action, or at least pricing in a maybe.
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Post by mnfish on Sept 14, 2023 11:34:00 GMT
OOPS!!!! Latest CPI report puts the headline inflation rate at a 14 month high of 3.7%. 14 month high??? 3.7% is the YoY inflation, which is at a 3 month high (it was 4.1% in May 2023). I will post details later. I read that - "the Bureau of Labor Statistics is that headline CPI rose by more than 0.6% last month. That's the fastest single-month increase since June of last year, when the annual measure peaked at 9.1%. " core inflation has decelerated to 4.3%, the lowest result since September 2021" Still a long way from 2%.
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Post by yogibearbull on Sept 14, 2023 12:31:51 GMT
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Post by yogibearbull on Sept 14, 2023 13:10:20 GMT
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Inflation
Sept 14, 2023 22:09:19 GMT
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Post by newtecher on Sept 14, 2023 22:09:19 GMT
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Post by yogibearbull on Sept 15, 2023 0:27:25 GMT
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Inflation
Sept 15, 2023 2:24:36 GMT
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Post by newtecher on Sept 15, 2023 2:24:36 GMT
Thank you for clarifying and the fred links. I just googled it and found the link I posted but clearly there are lots of indices with similar-sounding names. Pretty confusing.
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Post by richardsok on Sept 19, 2023 13:05:44 GMT
This morning I read the Federal debt exceeds $33Trillion. (So easy to type that unfathomable number! My calculator can't handle it. I have to write it out by hand and drop zeros to calculate.) We KNOW this ever-climbing number cannot ever be paid off. Let's add over $3Trillion for state & local debt and you've got $36+Trill. Let's say the gov't pays an even 5% on its debt. 5% of $36Trillion is $1.8 Trillion just for debt service....over double the 2023 Defense budget or approx $6000 for every working stiff, schoolkid, barfly, infant, geezer or tatted-up Wokester....annually.
The numbers continue to grow, of course. And you KNOW the only way that debt can be maintained is by debasing the currency. I wish I could share the comforting thought that inflation will slow; that it can be managed. I don't.
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"When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic." --B. Franklin
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Post by FD1000 on Sept 19, 2023 14:58:09 GMT
I have been reading for years about the debt and the inflation. It all sounds scary and troubling. to put things in perspective. From 12/2010 www.cbo.gov/publication/21960 "CBO projects that, under current law, debt held by the public will exceed $16 trillion by 2020, reaching nearly 70 percent of GDP. CBO also projects that interest rates will go up." So almost 13 years ago, I already read all the warnings. It was "terrifying", many screamed. What was my solution? keep investing and disregard the warnings. I continue to be "terrified" for the 100th time. BTW, the CBO was wrong, the debt in 2020 wasn't just 16+ Tril, it was at 27 Tril.
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Post by win1177 on Sept 19, 2023 15:23:50 GMT
This morning I read the Federal debt exceeds $33Trillion. (So easy to type that unfathomable number! My calculator can't handle it. I have to write it out by hand and drop zeros to calculate.) We KNOW this ever-climbing number cannot ever be paid off. Let's add over $3Trillion for state & local debt and you've got $36+Trill. Let's say the gov't pays an even 5% on its debt. 5% of $36Trillion is $1.8 Trillion just for debt service....over double the 2023 Defense budget or approx $6000 for every working stiff, schoolkid, barfly, infant, geezer or tatted-up Wokester....annually. The numbers continue to grow, of course. And you KNOW the only way that debt can be maintained is by debasing the currency. I wish I could share the comforting thought that inflation will slow; that it can be managed. I don't. ------------- "When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic." --B. Franklin It’s scary the amount of debt we will be leaving our children, grandchildren, etc.!!! Win
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Post by archer on Sept 19, 2023 16:17:26 GMT
Debt has enabled us a higher standard of living than we have earned. It's sobering to look at it this way but US debt can be compared to an individual without a job who somehow was able to get a bunch of loans, bought a nice big house and a large garage full of exotic cars. The example is perhaps exaggerated and the consequences are believed to be different. While it seems unlikely that our debt will be called in, at some point it will be harder for the Gov to access money. Eventually it will be come obvious that the US isn't a safe place to lend money to. THen we will have to do with less, finally. Since we are quoting Ben, I found him quoted in this US debt article, "Rather go to bed without dinner than to rise in debt." I found the article a good read.
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Post by catdog on Sept 19, 2023 17:34:10 GMT
But don't go to bed without Madeira!!!
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Post by mnfish on Sept 19, 2023 19:16:47 GMT
FsclYr Debt Debt/GDP Event 2018 $21,516 105% Trump tax cuts
2019 $22,719 107% Trade wars
2020 $27,748 129% COVID-19 and 2020 recession
2021 $29,617 124% COVID-19 and American Rescue Plan Act
2022 $30,824 123% Inflation Reduction Act and student loan forgiveness
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Post by FD1000 on Sept 19, 2023 23:44:19 GMT
Oil prices are approaching $100. Our Gov freezed permits in NM and AK.
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Post by Chahta on Sept 20, 2023 0:01:05 GMT
Oil prices are approaching $100. Our Gov freezed permits in NM and AK. Obviously, they think they know what is best for us but don't. The government caused inflation and continues to fuel it. Can you spell ineptitude?
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Post by Chahta on Sept 20, 2023 0:05:23 GMT
Debt has enabled us a higher standard of living than we have earned. It's sobering to look at it this way but US debt can be compared to an individual without a job who somehow was able to get a bunch of loans, bought a nice big house and a large garage full of exotic cars. The example is perhaps exaggerated and the consequences are believed to be different. While it seems unlikely that our debt will be called in, at some point it will be harder for the Gov to access money. Eventually it will be come obvious that the US isn't a safe place to lend money to. THen we will have to do with less, finally. Since we are quoting Ben, I found him quoted in this US debt article, "Rather go to bed without dinner than to rise in debt." I found the article a good read. Debt has not given me anything but inflation and higher taxes. The debt is wasted on things like money sent to Ukraine.
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Post by Chahta on Sept 20, 2023 0:12:49 GMT
win1177 : "When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic." --B. Franklin It’s scary the amount of debt we will be leaving our children, grandchildren, etc.!!! " I have always said the only answer is when the gov. starts taking 50% or more of their paychecks for taxes, then the children will vote the scumbags out. Our generation has totally failed at that.
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Inflation
Sept 20, 2023 1:30:07 GMT
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Post by FD1000 on Sept 20, 2023 1:30:07 GMT
Vote the politicians out?
If this was true why generations (young and old) keep voting them in? How do I know? It got worse over the years and the bad politicians are still there.
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Post by Chahta on Sept 20, 2023 11:46:08 GMT
FD1000 , for some reason the majority's mentality has been to make career politicians out of those elected. Then they become entitled and unresponsive to everything other than what they want. When the heavy tax burden reaches regular working people, then those people will demand spending cuts to lower their tax burden. It does not happen now but will I believe. By revolution or the ballot box.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 20, 2023 12:04:01 GMT
FD1000 , for some reason the majority's mentality has been to make career politicians out of those elected. Then they become entitled and unresponsive to everything other than what they want. When the heavy tax burden reaches regular working people, then those people will demand spending cuts to lower their tax burden. It does not happen now but will I believe. By revolution or the ballot box. Modern Monetary Theory ........ If we have spent too much let's make up an academic sounding theory to justify it.
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mani
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Post by mani on Sept 20, 2023 17:16:01 GMT
Debt has enabled us a higher standard of living than we have earned. It's sobering to look at it this way but US debt can be compared to an individual without a job who somehow was able to get a bunch of loans, bought a nice big house and a large garage full of exotic cars. The example is perhaps exaggerated and the consequences are believed to be different. While it seems unlikely that our debt will be called in, at some point it will be harder for the Gov to access money. Eventually it will be come obvious that the US isn't a safe place to lend money to. THen we will have to do with less, finally. Since we are quoting Ben, I found him quoted in this US debt article, "Rather go to bed without dinner than to rise in debt." I found the article a good read. Debt has not given me anything but inflation and higher taxes. The debt is wasted on things like money sent to Ukraine. This is getting political but beyond that aspect I cannot think of money better spent. Get rid of old stock, weaken a nasty adversary we spent trillions trying to counter over decades, boost local economies with new procurement contracts to replace old stock, guarantee tons of new orders from Eastern European countries buying American instead of European. All of this without American blood? For once the spending definitely pays for itself!
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mani
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Post by mani on Sept 20, 2023 17:19:30 GMT
FD1000 , for some reason the majority's mentality has been to make career politicians out of those elected. Then they become entitled and unresponsive to everything other than what they want. When the heavy tax burden reaches regular working people, then those people will demand spending cuts to lower their tax burden. It does not happen now but will I believe. By revolution or the ballot box. Modern Monetary Theory ........ If we have spent too much let's make up an academic sounding theory to justify it. MMT is pretty clear. 1- Spend like it doesnt matter THEN 2- raise taxes to kill inflation. We will never know if it works since part 2 is impossible to sell to the public or pass in congress. So given we know we cannot do step 2 we definitely need to avoid step 1.
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Inflation
Sept 21, 2023 13:14:58 GMT
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Post by Chahta on Sept 21, 2023 13:14:58 GMT
Debt has not given me anything but inflation and higher taxes. The debt is wasted on things like money sent to Ukraine. This is getting political but beyond that aspect I cannot think of money better spent. Get rid of old stock, weaken a nasty adversary we spent trillions trying to counter over decades, boost local economies with new procurement contracts to replace old stock, guarantee tons of new orders from Eastern European countries buying American instead of European. All of this without American blood? For once the spending definitely pays for itself! It’s not political because I am not blaming a party or side. It’s a comment based on opinion. Just look at what happens today in the market. It is going to be an ugly day. Not brought on by you or me. We suffer the results of inflation, not our own actions.
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Post by Mustang on Sept 22, 2023 12:07:06 GMT
Modern Monetary Theory ........ If we have spent too much let's make up an academic sounding theory to justify it. MMT is pretty clear. 1- Spend like it doesnt matter THEN 2- raise taxes to kill inflation. We will never know if it works since part 2 is impossible to sell to the public or pass in congress. So given we know we cannot do step 2 we definitely need to avoid step 1. You forgot the details: 1. Spend like it doesn't matter on me and my friends, then 2. raise taxes on everyone else to kill inflation. By the way, part 2 does happen. It just happens through the invisible tax - inflation. Taxes should be used to decrease demand. Instead they are used to decrease supply. Hence, the tax the rich rhetoric.
I'm far from an expert but from what I have read Modern Monetary Theory does not always explain inflation or the lack thereof. It depends on where the money is spent. An increase in the money supply to shore up banks didn't reach the street and didn't cause inflation. An increase in the money supply to cover administration handouts does. If the money doesn't reach the street it cannot be spent. If it reaches the street it is. If spending on the demand side increases without a corresponding increase in productivity on the supply side then we have inflation.
Raising taxes to curb inflation would require raising them on the demand side. There are no votes for that. Instead, the rhetoric shouted from the rooftops is to tax the rich. To take away corporate research and development money, to take away corporate modernization money. Instead of raising taxes on the demand side we tax those who invest in increasing productivity.
Except in one area, green energy. Some politicians preach about "Trickle down" economics which is actually supply side economics. Yet, our government is using the principles of supply side economics for green energy. It is giving billions if not trillions to green companies so they can modernize to increase productivity and make green products affordable. Electric vehicles take 30% less labor to make than their internal combustion counterparts. Forcing a transition to EVs will result in layoffs . The only answer to that is to provide capital to green energy companies in hopes of them creating enough jobs to offset those lost. They are following the demonized "trickle down" theory.
If we are to transition to EVs and green energy then supply side incentives are necessary. But, I'm still in the camp that it will be decades not years before green energy is a viable alternative.
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Post by archer on Sept 22, 2023 15:32:20 GMT
Interesting point about EVs needing less labor to build, and the resulting layoffs if EV growth reaches that level of production. That might be a good thing with more and more people retiring. There have been concerns about technology replacing people, overlooking that we have a shortage of people to replace people. Currently we are out of balance with too many jobs and not enough people to fill them, and the ones that are filling them demanding higher pay. Focusing on the economy, it would be better to support job reducing tech.
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Post by Mustang on Sept 22, 2023 17:59:33 GMT
archer , we will have plenty of workers. 10,000 potential new workers just crossed the border yesterday. I'm not sure of the process but those that have crossed are starting to get green cards so they can find jobs. I have not seen any data on the skill levels of those who will receive green cards. Things have happened so fast I doubt any such data exists. But matching skill levels to the new technology jobs may be a problem.
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Post by anovice on Sept 24, 2023 0:25:03 GMT
archer , we will have plenty of workers. 10,000 potential new workers just crossed the border yesterday. I'm not sure of the process but those that have crossed are starting to get green cards so they can find jobs. I have not seen any data on the skill levels of those who will receive green cards. Things have happened so fast I doubt any such data exists. But matching skill levels to the new technology jobs may be a problem. Fortunately, a bunch of the 10,000 came to my neighborhood and are keeping one of the oldest and largest open-air markets in America up and running.
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Post by saratoga on Sept 24, 2023 19:04:25 GMT
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Post by anitya on Sept 24, 2023 20:51:04 GMT
archer , we will have plenty of workers. 10,000 potential new workers just crossed the border yesterday. I'm not sure of the process but those that have crossed are starting to get green cards so they can find jobs. I have not seen any data on the skill levels of those who will receive green cards. Things have happened so fast I doubt any such data exists. But matching skill levels to the new technology jobs may be a problem. [Bold added] I have not been following this thread but the mention of green card in this post caught my eye. Please share news articles / sources in support of the statements in bold.
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Post by Mustang on Sept 25, 2023 0:20:14 GMT
archer , we will have plenty of workers. 10,000 potential new workers just crossed the border yesterday. I'm not sure of the process but those that have crossed are starting to get green cards so they can find jobs. I have not seen any data on the skill levels of those who will receive green cards. Things have happened so fast I doubt any such data exists. But matching skill levels to the new technology jobs may be a problem. [Bold added] I have not been following this thread but the mention of green card in this post caught my eye. Please share news articles / sources in support of the statements in bold.
New York is a city of around 7.9 million and is begging for help from the federal government because they have gotten somewhere around 100,000 new emigrants since Spring of 2022.. 60,000 currently in the city's care. If a city as big as New York is unable to house and feed that many emigrants then.
The number of potential new workers entering the country is at record levels. I'm pretty sure a shortage of workers is not going to be a problem. A shortage of jobs is more likely. Even the United States does not have the resources to assimilate this many emigrants all at one time.
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