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Post by chang on Jun 23, 2022 11:15:44 GMT
“In addition, economic growth in emerging markets in 2022 doesn't look all that much different or better than growth in developed markets,” noted Ostrander at State Street Global Advisors. “This year, we expect only a few emerging market countries to outperform the projected global average real GDP growth of 3.6%.” www.pionline.com/EM-report2022If so, why do I have / want an EM fund position?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2022 13:22:08 GMT
Well - it depends on your goals. First the obvious - your source has an expectation - no perfect knowledge. There have also been expectations of low single digit returns in US stocks for the next decade. Not sure what the expected average global real gdp is, but you can do the math.
Rising middle classes, heavy commodities are two reasons that immediately come to mind. Diversification of course.
I have a small amount in EM. It hasn't done well. I'm in it for the long term. No crystal ball.
You don't have to have it. Just depends on your strategy, allocation decision, and risk tolerance.
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Post by roi2020 on Jun 24, 2022 0:16:30 GMT
Keep in mind that robust economic growth in EM does not necessarily lead to superior investor returns. I've owned dedicated EM equity funds in the past. Approximately three years ago, I've delegated EM investing decisions to my Foreign Large Cap fund managers.
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Post by alvinthechipmunk on Jun 24, 2022 10:30:42 GMT
Yes, and my 7+ percent of portfolio stake in TRAMX is not lighting the world on fire. I rather suspect that, along with developed world Financials, TRAMX will go nowhere until there is a gear-shift by Central Banks. TRAMX, strange enough, is 50% in FINANCIALS. (Africa-Middle East.) AL RAJHI BANK by itself = 10% of its portfolio. Of course, there is politics and exchange rates to deal with, too. I own no Sri Lankan gov't BONDS, at least.
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Post by chang on Jun 28, 2022 13:42:59 GMT
Let me ask the question a different way:
What conditions would allow EM stocks to grow robustly, and significantly outperform US and developed markets? Are these conditions likely to come into existence in the next three years, and if they do, would they be sustainable?
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Post by chang on Jun 28, 2022 13:45:58 GMT
As an aside, FEMKX is in the top 20% of EM funds over 3-5-10-15 years, but bottom 20-30% YTD and over 1 year. Does this suggest FEMKX is beginning a period of underperformance (within the category), or is this of no significance?
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Post by alvinthechipmunk on Jun 30, 2022 10:16:35 GMT
My biggest EM slug is TRAMX at 7.54% of total. It's half in FINANCIALS. For that reason, I'm keeping it, unless the whole planet goes up in flames and we're trading sticks and stones again. On Wednesday, 29th June, '22, my domestic financials (PRISX) took a dive. What was UP for me? BHB, BRUFX and...... TRAMX. The ER was due to go up. I think that's been postponed. Materials are about 10% of the fund. One might expect an even higher number in that category. Energy? Only 1.6% of the fund's portfolio. So TRAMX is not the age-old Middle East oil bet.
I believe the war in Ukraine is going to depress economies, worldwide, yes. For YEARS. What will flourish? DEFENSE stocks, while the West continues to arm the Ukrainians vs. the Russians. Eventually, financials will turn the corner, benefitting from higher rates----- assuming that loan demand does not dry up. The Recession IS coming. No doubt. I'm going to ride it out, and be adding when I'm able. ET, already owned. Seriously considering POWW.
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Post by johntaylor on Jul 4, 2022 14:49:03 GMT
PRAMX down just 3 percent
Also have REVIX (down 14 percent)
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Post by alvinthechipmunk on Jul 4, 2022 23:41:28 GMT
PRAMX/TRAMX. ya, not down by much, ytd. Except... I bought at the HIGH, earlier in the year. Big giant doggy poopies.
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Post by johntaylor on Jul 9, 2022 16:11:47 GMT
If inflation settles at some uncomfortable level and it becomes Volcker time again, perhaps EM will help?
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Post by alvinthechipmunk on Jul 11, 2022 0:47:27 GMT
I can't quite intuit your logic. Not saying you're wrong. Care to elucidate? BTW, TRAMX is a big bet on FINANCIALS in the region. I do recall that. johntaylor ,
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2022 0:54:40 GMT
Let me ask the question a different way: What conditions would allow EM stocks to grow robustly, and significantly outperform US and developed markets? Are these conditions likely to come into existence in the next three years, and if they do, would they be sustainable? The obvious answer to me is rising middle class. Higher birth rates. More production, more consumers, equals growing GDP. Can't say that will bear fruit in 3 years though. Weaker dollar.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2022 15:40:10 GMT
I agree will all the positives for EM. My concern with EM remains that US investors did not make money in China during EM's mega growth period. US investors made 2% per annum in China which was less than treasuries. EM has outperformed ~5 years out of last 20 and that was mega growth period for both India and China. But if we can time EM and do EM ex China may be we can make money. EM does not appear to me Buy and Hold kind of investment. May be it can be a momentum driven play. Also more news coming out China, www.cnn.com/2022/07/10/china/china-henan-bank-depositors-protest-mic-intl-hnk/index.html
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Post by alvinthechipmunk on Jul 11, 2022 15:52:04 GMT
I agree will all the positives for EM. My concern with EM remains that US investors did not make money in China during EM's mega growth period. US investors made 2% per annum in China which was less than treasuries. EM has outperformed ~5 years out of last 20 and that was mega growth period for both India and China. But if we can time EM and do EM ex China may be we can make money. EM does not appear to me Buy and Hold kind of investment. May be it can be a momentum driven play. Also more news coming out China, www.cnn.com/2022/07/10/china/china-henan-bank-depositors-protest-mic-intl-hnk/index.htmlrun on banks squashed by gov't. ouch. that is frikkin' drastic. i think FDR declared a bank holiday briefly after taking office. But in this day and age? ?
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