Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 12, 2022 0:59:23 GMT
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Post by alvinthechipmunk on Feb 12, 2022 21:56:54 GMT
Yes, I'm talking through my hat, but it seems to me that, for example, Latin America has flamed-out. Political stability in Africa is a fantasy. Then there are Asian countries like Burma/Myanmar. A real cluster-fuck........ This article is brought to our attention here just in time to catch me putting money into TRAMX. LOL. "Africa & Middle East." We'll see what happens. Big bet in financials in that fund. Unless the sky falls down, banks always land on their feet. Some way or another they manage to make money. Hefty ER in TRAMX, though. I hope it will be worth the cost. I just can't sit by and watch my bonds continue to dwindle in value.
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Post by roi2020 on Feb 12, 2022 22:11:17 GMT
EM had a great run from 2003 - 2007. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index scored the highest or second highest returns within the Callan Periodic Table during this timeframe. Performance has been lackluster since then. Starting several years ago, certain market pundits claimed EM were due to outperform. This hasn't occurred yet but maybe it will change in the future?
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Post by chang on Feb 14, 2022 6:11:42 GMT
I sold most of my (dedicated) EM during the last quarter of 2021. I only have FEMKX remaining in an IRA, and I’m not sure if 2022 will be the year when EM’s come back. If Russia invades Ukraine and China invades Taiwan, FEMKX probably won’t respond too well.
Wondering if I should move that money to FICDX and FFGCX instead.
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Post by alvinthechipmunk on Feb 14, 2022 8:27:11 GMT
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Post by Norbert on Feb 14, 2022 8:42:23 GMT
I sold most of my (dedicated) EM during the last quarter of 2021. I only have FEMKX remaining in an IRA, and I’m not sure if 2022 will be the year when EM’s come back. If Russia invades Ukraine and China invades Taiwan, FEMKX probably won’t respond too well. Wondering if I should move that money to FICDX and FFGCX instead. I noticed that Foster's Seafarer "Overseas Value" fund SIVLX has finally started to shine. M* classifies it as EM.
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Post by chang on Feb 14, 2022 9:31:22 GMT
I noticed that Foster's Seafarer "Overseas Value" fund SIVLX has finally started to shine. M* classifies it as EM. Yes I see the "Percentage in Category" ranks are all single-digit over the last year. However, when the category has been hammered by Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, Sea, Bilibili, etc. which are all down 40-70%, and when almost every fund in the category is filled to the brim with these growth stocks, any fund that avoided them is bound to look good. I gave up on Seafarer last year, after too long a period of underperformance and too many missed opportunities and wrong decisions. SIVLX's relative pop doesn't entice me back. This looks like a "stopped clock" pop to me. One day I am sure EM stock will be the place to be. It just seems like that day isn't going to come in 2022, so I am uncertain whether holding FEMKX -- not a very large holding, anyway -- makes sense right now.
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Post by Norbert on Feb 14, 2022 10:52:27 GMT
I love it. By the way, I noticed this ARTICLE in the JP. The Ukrainian ambassador to the UK suggested that his country might drop its bid to join NATO. That could be what Putin was waiting for to end this.
If so, we'd see a quick pop in equities and maybe a retreat on commodity prices.
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Post by bugman on Feb 14, 2022 12:02:42 GMT
I love it. By the way, I noticed this ARTICLE in the JP. The Ukrainian ambassador to the UK suggested that his country might drop its bid to join NATO. That could be what Putin was waiting for to end this.
If so, we'd see a quick pop in equities and maybe a retreat on commodity prices. The ambassador walked back those comments, apparently, soon after they were made. Back to an impass. Backtrack
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2022 16:32:37 GMT
That M* analysis made sense to me. So I do not plan to add any EM specific funds.
I have decent long term position in American Funds New World which is 50% developed and 50% EM. I am thinking if to keep it as an World/INTL fund or dump it.
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Post by roi2020 on Feb 14, 2022 18:50:57 GMT
I noticed that Foster's Seafarer "Overseas Value" fund SIVLX has finally started to shine. M* classifies it as EM. Yes I see the "Percentage in Category" ranks are all single-digit over the last year. However, when the category has been hammered by Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, Sea, Bilibili, etc. which are all down 40-70%, and when almost every fund in the category is filled to the brim with these growth stocks, any fund that avoided them is bound to look good. I gave up on Seafarer last year, after too long a period of underperformance and too many missed opportunities and wrong decisions. SIVLX's relative pop doesn't entice me back. This looks like a "stopped clock" pop to me. One day I am sure EM stock will be the place to be. It just seems like that day isn't going to come in 2022, so I am uncertain whether holding FEMKX -- not a very large holding, anyway -- makes sense right now. I've owned SIGIX for several years but sold the fund in late 2018. The fund's returns were disappointing while the corresponding volatility was higher than expected (considering Mr. Foster's prior charge at Matthews). Since I don't currently own any dedicated EM funds, I let my Foreign Large Cap fund managers decide how to invest in EM.
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Post by chang on May 21, 2022 12:36:07 GMT
What are people's EM equity strategy for the remainder of 2022? A recent opinion piece by Lazard (April, 2022): - "Over the short term, it is likely that market volatility will persist given the increased geopolitical uncertainty, weaker global growth, and earnings risks from oil shocks and higher inflation. Encouragingly, since the end of 2020, lower-valued shares with higher dividend yields and free cash flow yields in emerging markets equities have become more sought after. These improving characteristics, along with the lower valuation multiples versus its own history and compared to developed markets, could present investors with an attractive entry point into the asset class."
www.lazardassetmanagement.com/research-insights/outlooks/emerging-marketsI used to have a lot of EM equity exposure, and got rid of most of it last year (Artisan APDYX, Matthews MIAPX & MITEX). My only remaining dedicated EM asset is Fido's FEMKX in a T-IRA. It's not a giant position. I'm inclined to let it sit forever. But I have other holdings in the IRA which I am happy with (including plain-Jane FXAIX). If there is an overriding rationale either to sell or buy EM equity, it would be easy for me to shift things around. Thoughts?
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Post by johntaylor on May 21, 2022 16:19:18 GMT
Following TRAMX (up 2 percent as of May 20) on the theory that, in emerging, you might look at banks
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mrc
Lieutenant
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Post by mrc on May 21, 2022 19:59:33 GMT
I am still in ARTYX, but also started adding to EM Value ETF AVES. Together they are 5% of my portfolio. I am in ARTYX almost from inception. I am still up more than 100% up in ARTYX after it is down 52% from the 52 weeks high during this downturn. With more than 50% of its portfolio in Developed Markets, that too focused on high growth, I am treating it as Global high growth fund and added in tiny bits during this downturn. I sold PRGTX a few months ago due to this reason (ARTYX roughly representing Global growth).
I also have a 2.5% exposure to China through MCHFX, BABA, and BIDU (all significantly negative in my portfolio but I am in them for long term, so no plans to sell), plus exposure to EM through other funds like VWIGX.
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Post by johnsmith on May 21, 2022 20:28:40 GMT
What are people's EM equity strategy for the remainder of 2022? A recent opinion piece by Lazard (April, 2022): - "Over the short term, it is likely that market volatility will persist given the increased geopolitical uncertainty, weaker global growth, and earnings risks from oil shocks and higher inflation. Encouragingly, since the end of 2020, lower-valued shares with higher dividend yields and free cash flow yields in emerging markets equities have become more sought after. These improving characteristics, along with the lower valuation multiples versus its own history and compared to developed markets, could present investors with an attractive entry point into the asset class."
www.lazardassetmanagement.com/research-insights/outlooks/emerging-marketsI used to have a lot of EM equity exposure, and got rid of most of it last year (Artisan APDYX, Matthews MIAPX & MITEX). My only remaining dedicated EM asset is Fido's FEMKX in a T-IRA. It's not a giant position. I'm inclined to let it sit forever. But I have other holdings in the IRA which I am happy with (including plain-Jane FXAIX). If there is an overriding rationale either to sell or buy EM equity, it would be easy for me to shift things around. Thoughts?
Most of EM = BRICS
Well BICS now, since Russia has been fired.
78% of VWO is BICS. The rest is a long tail of tiny positions. So the biggest risk seems to be Political, emanating from the White House/USA.
BICS are unlikely to continue to be accommodating to US policy pronouncements, so it's entirely possible that more of these countries and our investments there will be "banned".
Brazil - Lula winning could be a reason. China/Taiwan - USA is looking for a fight there, so it's only a matter of time 50% of EM. India - too independent to corral into US/NATO sphere of influence completely - so a loose cannon.
On the other hand positives include - commodities, growing populations, possibly better economies in the future, cheaper valuations. negatives - Local leaders will probably sell out their own local/country interests to the highest briber.
So a mixed bag. Considering that the USA has very high valuations, it might still be prudent to be diversified (into lower valuation economies, including Japan, South Korea etc), mostly because Political Risk cannot be mitigated away, so it becomes moot.
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Post by alvinthechipmunk on May 22, 2022 1:54:52 GMT
Hanging onto TRAMX. I bought at the high, crap. Down YTD for me, but not badly.
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Post by chang on May 22, 2022 6:46:28 GMT
Hanging onto TRAMX. I bought at the high, crap. Down YTD for me, but not badly. My days of dicing and slicing EMs are over. At best, a “diversified” EM fund is enough. And I even wonder occasionally whether that category really makes sense …
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2022 20:17:04 GMT
As per this FT article, EM outlook is still negative for rest of the year. Article is more focussed on EM bonds. www.ft.com/content/1e5dbb60-5c9c-47b7-8f81-7022c9f26349I am close to 1-2% on EM on 5% total in international now. After next stock market fall, if it comes, I am looking to invest in VIGRX (Vanguard international Growth) and European stocks Chang and others have been discussing in other threads.
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2022 20:27:37 GMT
I am with y'all on the disconnect of holding EM. Still holding though. It has not been fun!
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Post by steadyeddy on May 30, 2022 22:22:43 GMT
I am with y'all on the disconnect of holding EM. Still holding though. It has not been fun! For whatever it is worth, I have initiated positions in both EM equity (IEMG) and EM bonds (EMB/EMLC/HYEM) and continuing to build these positions on a regular basis. It is simply a contrarian play and adds diversification to my index part of the portfolio.
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Post by alvinthechipmunk on May 31, 2022 1:43:02 GMT
I am with y'all on the disconnect of holding EM. Still holding though. It has not been fun! For whatever it is worth, I have initiated positions in both EM equity (IEMG) and EM bonds (EMB/EMLC/HYEM) and continuing to build these positions on a regular basis. It is simply a contrarian play and adds diversification to my index part of the portfolio. Still have my eye on AGEPX.
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Post by chang on May 31, 2022 9:21:50 GMT
Down to a smallish holding of FEMKX in an IRA (2% of equity).
I have doubts that EM is even a valid "asset class". Many diversified foreign and global funds have unrestricted flexibility to invest in EM, so it's easy to obtain exposure.
Whether an overweight in EM is justified or not is a question for discussion; history suggests most of the time the answer is "no", and only very, very occasionally the answer is "yes". So I guess the answer is "no" for a B&Her (like me), and "maybe" or "yes" for an astute market timer.
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Post by alvinthechipmunk on May 31, 2022 9:37:31 GMT
Down to a smallish holding of FEMKX in an IRA (2% of equity). I have doubts that EM is even a valid "asset class". Many diversified foreign and global funds have unrestricted flexibility to invest in EM, so it's easy to obtain exposure. Whether an overweight in EM is justified or not is a question for discussion; history suggests most of the time the answer is "no", and only very, very occasionally the answer is "yes". So I guess the answer is "no" for a B&Her (like me), and "maybe" or "yes" for an astute market timer. Sure enough! Makes sense to me!
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galeno
Commander
KISS & STC
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Post by galeno on May 31, 2022 11:26:58 GMT
Our EM holdings are whatever % the FTSE all world equity index holds.
~10% last time I checked.
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Post by steadyeddy on Jun 1, 2022 12:31:59 GMT
Down to a smallish holding of FEMKX in an IRA (2% of equity). I have doubts that EM is even a valid "asset class". Many diversified foreign and global funds have unrestricted flexibility to invest in EM, so it's easy to obtain exposure. Whether an overweight in EM is justified or not is a question for discussion; history suggests most of the time the answer is "no", and only very, very occasionally the answer is "yes". So I guess the answer is "no" for a B&Her (like me), and "maybe" or "yes" for an astute market timer. When rational, intelligent investors also throw in the towel, that is precisely the time for that "asset class" to start performing better... just my 2 cents.
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Post by Chahta on Jun 1, 2022 12:57:25 GMT
Down to a smallish holding of FEMKX in an IRA (2% of equity). I have doubts that EM is even a valid "asset class". Many diversified foreign and global funds have unrestricted flexibility to invest in EM, so it's easy to obtain exposure. Whether an overweight in EM is justified or not is a question for discussion; history suggests most of the time the answer is "no", and only very, very occasionally the answer is "yes". So I guess the answer is "no" for a B&Her (like me), and "maybe" or "yes" for an astute market timer. When rational, intelligent investors also throw in the towel, that is precisely the time for that "asset class" to start performing better... just my 2 cents. Exactly. That is why most of my mistakes are selling too soon.
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Post by chang on Jun 1, 2022 13:31:49 GMT
That is why most of my mistakes are selling too soon. Most of my mistakes fall into one of two categories: (1) selling too soon; (2) selling too late.
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Post by Chahta on Jun 1, 2022 13:48:07 GMT
Well I guess if I didn’t hold until recovery I would make that one too.
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Post by steadyeddy on Jun 1, 2022 22:02:38 GMT
That is why most of my mistakes are selling too soon. Most of my mistakes fall into one of two categories: (1) selling too soon; (2) selling too late. I follow the third category.
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Post by FD1000 on Jun 7, 2022 12:31:51 GMT
I haven't been in EM or international for many years (at least 10 years) because they both lag US LC. Most of my international investment were in 2000-2010 with SGIIX because of the legendary Jean-Marie Eveillard. I don't have to be diversified and never will be. See below SPY,EEM,VXUS in the last 10 years and more recently 3 years. Attachments:
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