How did your portfolio do on Friday?

[kathiel]

Just took a look at my portfolios. Right now my portfolios look more like the indexes - down 2-2.5% today.

I want to watch for when to buy something, as I have $20-25,000 to invest. At the start of the year. I had a plan for what I wanted to sell. It was a good plan, but I didn't fully execute it. I don't like to sell too much at once, since being out of the market has been a loser. The one thing I'd planned to sell that didn't get sold was STX. It was at $115 a share when I posted about my plan to sell it, it's now at $95, so I'm not selling it now.

I'm just going to watch and wait. I'm watching NEM and MMM right now.

[Chahta]

Jan 24, 2022 18:22:27 GMT uncleharley said:

Jan 24, 2022 17:39:18 GMT Chahta said:

Um, what bump?

Oh you mean the one at the bottom of the roller coaster?

Nope.  I meant the one the lunch hr traders gave us.  Sorry, I should have been more specific.  It's too late now.

Uncle, you nailed it! THE BUMP!

[Capital]

Whew this feels like the Wild West. I was gone to the dogs when I left for lunch and made money by 3pm.

[kathiel]

What a crazy day! I, too, made money by the end of the day.

[Chahta]

Can you say "whipsaw"? Panic sellers in the morning and sellers regret in the afternoon. The VIX shot up and was a net down close.

[sheryldell]

Jan 24, 2022 18:45:05 GMT retiredat48 said:

Jan 24, 2022 8:44:24 GMT anitya said:

I looked at my portfolio components over the weekend.  My equity sleeve is pre-dominantly growth funds, including international growth funds GISYX and VWIGX.  All of these lost YTD way more than QQQ, which lost 11.6%.  Each of my dedicated sector sleeve funds in HC lost 15% YTD and they are PRHSX, FSPHX, & FSMEX constituting 6+% of PV at 12/31/2021 - it is unfortunate that PRHSX and FSPHX have lost all their gains made since sometime in December 2020 and October 2020, respectively.   These health care funds performed poorly in 2021 relative to index funds VHT and XLV and so, I was not expecting them to lose more than the index funds but they did.  Same with the growth funds relative to QQQ.  May be the time has come for me to ditch active equity funds.

+1...Nice post.

An alternative...incorporate into one's investing, the mantra:  IF ANY OF MY ACTIVELY MANAGED FUNDS IS LAGGING ITS COMPARABLE INDEX FUND, OR BENCHMARK, SELL IT AND BUY THE INDEX FUND, AS A MINIMUM.

[sheryldell]

Re sell if the fund you own is lagging the index or benchmark.

What time frame do you use to make this comparison ? Several time frames?

I have found that sometimes a managed growth fund that is lagging ends up doing much better and makes up its lesser performance.
However, I have no idea how or why it happened. That thinking has kept me in the fund, but in these times maybe moving to the index or a better performer makes sense.

[roi2020]

Jan 25, 2022 0:22:21 GMT sheryldell said:

Re sell if the fund you own is lagging the index or benchmark.

What time frame do you use to make this comparison ? Several time frames?

I have found that sometimes a managed growth fund that is lagging ends up doing much better and makes up its lesser performance.
However, I have no idea how or why it happened. That thinking has kept me in the fund, but in these times maybe moving to the index or a better performer makes sense.

Actively managed funds will trail relevant indexes periodically.
A fund's relative performance can vary considerably depending on the selected timeframe.
Also, some good active funds may generate "lumpy" returns.
If an investor can't tolerate any "underperformance", they should probably switch to index funds.
There are no universal rules for selling a lagging fund.

Here are some questions that I ask:

1) Was there a strategy change?
2) Has there been any turnover in the portfolio manager or analyst ranks?
3) Are there any issues with the fund firm (merger or acquisition, overexuberant growth, scandal, etc.)?
4) Was the fund placed in the correct M* or Lipper fund category?

I usually won't sell a fund if it starts underperforming when no material changes (see above) were made since due diligence was performed during the fund selection process.

[anitya]

Jan 25, 2022 0:22:21 GMT sheryldell said:

Re sell if the fund you own is lagging the index or benchmark.

What time frame do you use to make this comparison ? Several time frames?

I have found that sometimes a managed growth fund that is lagging ends up doing much better and makes up its lesser performance.
However, I have no idea how or why it happened. That thinking has kept me in the fund, but in these times maybe moving to the index or a better performer makes sense.

The basic human nature (Fear and greed) prevents us from making changes.  However it is easy if you take smaller steps.  Exit and switch in 1/5ths or 1/10th.  Of course, it is painful if you at Fidelity because you can not place the buy order the same day you sell, unless both the buy and sell are from the same family, even then you can not go from OEF to ETF the same day.  

All my growth funds lagged QQQ in 2021 and lost more than QQQ in 2022 as well.  A few managers perform consistently well year after year and some underperform for a number of years in a row.  I am not interested in debating the why but I do not believe in persisting with unproductive relationships: personal or professional.  It is a good point checking if M* classification of category is correct but if I thought I was in a value fund and it is underperforming the value index, then it does not matter that M* categorized it wrong and it is actually a growth fund.  I should move because I was not looking for a growth fund in that fund.  Allocation of blame is of no use.  Put in the work upfront and make deliberate choices, but I would just move if something is not working out.  Finally, there is something to be said about the effectiveness of SPY, QQQ, etc. 

[retiredat48]

Jan 25, 2022 0:22:21 GMT sheryldell said:

Re sell if the fund you own is lagging the index or benchmark.

What time frame do you use to make this comparison ? Several time frames?

I have found that sometimes a managed growth fund that is lagging ends up doing much better and makes up its lesser performance.
However, I have no idea how or why it happened. That thinking has kept me in the fund, but in these times maybe moving to the index or a better performer makes sense.

This is a great question, Sheryl, but my answer goes like this.

Timeframes for comparisons are the "art-part" of investing.  Two or three weeks may convince me, if the bottom was formed, both moving upward, and one lags.  But the plain answer is: any time period, six months typical.  A guy named William Miller's actively managed fund beat the S&P500 for 15 straight years.  Then he lagged a year.   Hmmm.  This continued for a few years.  Surely we would give six months in initial lag year.  But like roi2020 posted, you now do fundamental assessments to try to understand why.  Like, Miller started to invest heavily in banks; then doubled down; but bank fraud got him.

My best criteria is like defining pornogra__y:  you know it when you see it.  You will know it when you begin to question your fund's performance!!...at any time.  That is the yellow flag.

And you can always switch back.

R48

[Mustang]

Jan 25, 2022 0:12:42 GMT sheryldell said:

Jan 24, 2022 18:45:05 GMT retiredat48 said:

+1...Nice post.

An alternative...incorporate into one's investing, the mantra:  IF ANY OF MY ACTIVELY MANAGED FUNDS IS LAGGING ITS COMPARABLE INDEX FUND, OR BENCHMARK, SELL IT AND BUY THE INDEX FUND, AS A MINIMUM.

I used to do a lot of that but now, as most people know, I'm not a trader but more of a buy and hold investor.  I pick high quality managed funds and stick with them.  All are currently 4 and 5 star funds.  Its been a long time since one of them dropped down to 3 stars.  And they all beat their categories.  I also give the fund managers time to recover.  An example is Vanguard Wellington.  It had been a large cap value fund a long time but when its performance started lagging a little the fund managers made enough changes to cause it to change to a large cap blend category.

The closest my funds have come to their category averages was last year and even they most were a full point above their category.  I have one 100% stock fund left and it is being slowly phased out.  It is the only fund I own that is below its category.  All of the others  are three points above their category.  Wellington is 6 points above it probably because value made a recovery.  (But all of that could change tomorrow.)

As I said, I not a trader.  I believe in buying good funds and letting the managers do their job.

[Deleted]

Morningstar has a useful data point in the Portfolio section of actively managed, domestic equity OEFs: Active Share. It tells how much a fund hugs an index.
Personally, I look for active funds with high active shares. If they don't have that, I think you are better off just buying the index.

[anitya]

Jan 28, 2022 16:21:47 GMT Mustang said:

Jan 25, 2022 0:12:42 GMT sheryldell said:

I used to do a lot of that but now, as most people know, I'm not a trader but more of a buy and hold investor.  I pick high quality managed funds and stick with them.  All are currently 4 and 5 star funds.  Its been a long time since one of them dropped down to 3 stars.  And they all beat their categories.  I also give the fund managers time to recover.  An example is Vanguard Wellington.  It had been a large cap value fund a long time but when its performance started lagging a little the fund managers made enough changes to cause it to change to a large cap blend category.

The closest my funds have come to their category averages was last year and even they most were a full point above their category.  I have one 100% stock fund left and it is being slowly phased out.  It is the only fund I own that is below its category.  All of the others  are three points above their category.  Wellington is 6 points above it probably because value made a recovery.  (But all of that could change tomorrow.)

As I said, I not a trader.  I believe in buying good funds and letting the managers do their job.

Not a critiq of the above, but category includes all the other active funds and is not the same as index.  Beating the category may not be the same as beating or matching the index.  E.g., in 2021, LCG category did 20% while the index did 26%.   Towards the bottom of the M* quote page provides definitions.   I have been paying more in yearly ER to my active funds than my salary 25 years ago while holding a lot of dirt cheap ER ETFs.   I am the last person that chooses a relationship based on ER but it really is a question of expectations.  Even if they only match the index, if they provide some other usefulness, then it is OK.  We do not monitor our index funds but active funds need constant monitoring - just look at the discussions on investing boards.  So, why pay somebody to give us more work is the question being asked.  Even active ETFs provide benefits over active OEFs, not to mention lower ER.

[Mustang]

I know.  Morningstar's column is titled +/- Cat or Ind so they use whatever is comparable.  I don't care if its above its category or above the index as long as its doing better than most.  It is not my goal to be in the best fund but a good fund that stays good year after year.

Edit: . I just checked Vanguard Balanced Index isn't doing so well.  Its doing worse than Wellington.  Its in the bottom quartile and YTD its down 7.10%.  Interestingly, the chart says its  its index is down 6.2%.  I have no idea what Morningstar uses for this index fund's index.  www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vbinx/quote

[roi2020]

Jan 28, 2022 16:41:18 GMT @django said:

Morningstar has a useful data point in the Portfolio section of actively managed, domestic equity OEFs: Active Share. It tells how much a fund hugs an index.
Personally, I look for active funds with high active shares. If they don't have that, I think you are better off just buying the index.

I don't want my actively managed funds to be "index-huggers."
However, funds with high active share are often riskier and more expensive.
Utilizing high active share as a screen to find superior funds is overrated.
These funds could be some of the best-performing or worst-performing funds in their corresponding categories.

Link

[Deleted]

I sure like the idea of us reporting in on portfolio returns as we go through whatever you want to call it - rotation, correction, etc.

I'm down -3.6% year to date so far. Allocation - 84% equities 16% cash - cash went as high as 19% when selling. Mainly dividend stalwarts with a large slice of AAPL (10% of portfolio) keeping the boat steady. Only 1% in an S&P index, but international (19%) is mainly in etfs and mutual funds, along with small cap (VBR) and midcap (VO). Stocks that I think can swing hard - AMZN (large holding) and COIN (tiny holding). Underweight tech; overweight staples, discretionary, energy, real estate. Close to equal weight on communications (basically FB and VZ), healthcare, industrials, financials, and materials. Really no bonds as I have access to the USG thrift savings plan G fund.

I underperformed the S&P last year by some 5% - due to being underweight tech and having to deploy cash that amounted to 1/3 of the portfolio - it took me awhile.

Year goals - add to GOOG on any weakness below 2500.  MSFT at 280 or below.  Buy PXD or CVX on weakness.  Keep bumping up international allocation.  Allocation can go to 90-10. 

[racqueteer]

Jan 29, 2022 13:37:39 GMT @slooow said:

I sure like the idea of us reporting in on portfolio returns as we go through whatever you want to call it - rotation, correction, etc.

I'm down -3.6% year to date so far. Allocation - 84% equities 16% cash - cash went as high as 19% when selling.

I don't know about anyone else, Sara, but I find those results to be very good.  I have a slightly greater loss with a good deal less equity and a good deal more cash in hand at the moment!  Of course, a lot of that loss WAS in tech-related stuff; so being in the right place was a key factor.  Did you consciously move from tech to value this last month; or were you already there and simply reaped the benefits?

[Deleted]

Raq - I just divided this morning's balance by the one on 12/31. No new money added so should be a good number. No - not so smart as to timely move in and out of tech. I have been light for some time, but what I do have is a very large amount of AAPL (10%), AMZN and FB. I have some GOOG, but not a lot - I want more. The AMZN and FB are lagging now. I have been preparing my portfolio for over a year for this though - higher inflation, rising rates. It took a long time especially with so much new money to deploy.

I decided to stay away from bonds. I booted high multiple stocks out - except AMZN. I finally cut back on ones that have had large increases and/or multiples - like PAYX, PG, UPS, MCD. I even finally sold a small amount of my AAPL stake in my IRA. I haven't had a lot of poor performers lately - BABA I think was my worst one - got rid of it. International hasn't been great either. Energy is helping out and banks. The consumer stocks have been great - PG for crying out loud. I hated to sell more than half of it but the gains are years of dividends. MCD too. GIS, GPC, JNJ, UPS. ABBV - recommended by Kathie. PFE. All dividend stocks

Now - I am looking at international - developed that is - because I think this market is stretched.

Long answer to your question - I have always concentrated on dividend stocks. I've found over the years I pretty much match the S&P with a better yield - until last year.

[Deleted]

Okay then! On Jan 29 my equity portfolio was down 3.6%. Now it is down 6.8%. Not a good trend! Hang in there investing friends!


edit - this is for 82% equity positions. 

[alvinthechipmunk]

Since 01-01-2022 my stuff in toto is down by -5.28%. Could be worse. And it WILL get worse. Bette Davis sums it up well:
youtu.be/XypVcv77WBU

kathiel ,Chahta ,Capital ,sheryldell ,roi2020 ,anitya ,retiredat48 ,Mustang ,@django ,@slooow ,racqueteer ,

[Deleted]

Feb 24, 2022 11:02:01 GMT alvinthechipmunk said:

Since 01-01-2022 my stuff in toto is down by -5.28%. Could be worse. And it WILL get worse. Bette Davis sums it up well:
youtu.be/XypVcv77WBU

kathiel ,Chahta ,Capital ,sheryldell ,roi2020 ,anitya ,retiredat48 ,Mustang ,@django ,@slooow ,racqueteer ,

Wierd, I'm down the exact same amount. Recently raised cash position to 10% through tax loss harvesting in taxable, so I'm at roughly 40% Equity/50% Bond/10% Cash. How about you?

[fishingrod]

I am down 1.96% YTD with 22.27% stocks now.
My VDE energy up 20% already this year has helped.

[steelpony10]

       Our whole portfolio is down about 10% now with more drops on the way? This is precisely why we income invest. Between our cash on hand, a 40+ year old muni on reinvestment and a dedicated herd of cash cows we’re set. Before anyone says this is a fluke along with Covid now is the time to plan for the worse and hope for the best where you win in most if not all markets.

        On the bright side maybe consumers will scurry back to their ubiquitous toys and stop spending giving the Fed an easier path to control any unnecessary remaining inflation.

        Before I forget after the flash crash in the late 80’s I concluded there will be many more situations like that. So I tried to create my own “luck”. Being a retiree I’ll be d**ned if I’m going to interrupt my lifestyle in my remaining years unless forced to. 

         

[Mustang]

As of yesterday, not counting my annuity and including cash on hand, my portfolio is down roughly 6%. It is around 55% stock.  SP500 is down around 11.3% so that sounds about right.  I'm waiting to see what happens today. American Funds Balanced Fund is down 6.8%, Wellington is down 8.8%, and Wellesley is down 4.2%.  Buy what's down, sell what's up.  My next monthly purchase will be Wellington.

[alvinthechipmunk]

My allocation=
38 stocks, including PRWCX and BRUFX "balanced" funds.
60 bonds.
9 "cash." but some is shorted by the fund managers. 

ENIC is a tiny position, but it's off this morning, now, on 24 February.
Update: the portfolio is down -5.31% at the moment. About 11:00 a.m. in the East.


@django ,

Anyone who got into commodities in a serious way before Uncle Vlad the pig-fart sniffer invaded Ukraine is doing better. I salute you.

[richardsok]

Up 2.5% YTD.

Continue near zero common equities.   Near zero bonds.

Very heavy into commodities BCI, RJA, and smaller amounts in GLTR and PDBC, with 1% of PV left in bearish hedges.

Recently bought PDI.  Still holding some long time individual preferreds picked up in the wild 2008 days.

About 40% cash.

[Deleted]

Feb 24, 2022 16:14:21 GMT alvinthechipmunk said:

My allocation=
38 stocks, including PRWCX and BRUFX "balanced" funds.
60 bonds.
9 "cash." but some is shorted by the fund managers. 

ENIC is a tiny position, but it's off this morning, now, on 24 February.
Update: the portfolio is down -5.31% at the moment. About 11:00 a.m. in the East.


@django ,

Anyone who got into commodities in a serious way before Uncle Vlad the pig-fart sniffer invaded Ukraine is doing better. I salute you.

Thanks for responding. It sure looks like asset allocation, the basic stocks, bonds, cash mix, is the determining factor in most investors returns.

[kathiel]

I saw that someone had revived this thread yesterday, but I didn't have time to respond to it. As of COB yesterday, I was basically even in both of my IRAs (taking into account that I started withdrawing my RMD for the year), And of course, today, I'm up significantly in both accounts. Why the market is up so sharply with the war in Europe is beyond me.

The important measure for me is that my TIRA is producing enough in dividends to fully cover my RMD for the year. I'm 100% stocks.

[Capital]

Well at first look today seems to be a pretty good day. 

[alvinthechipmunk]

My (unrealized) loss in the total portfolio has been reduced quite a bit as of the close-of-business on Friday, 2-25-2022. From my all time high on 01-01-2022 to today, I'm down by -4.33%. I hope it turns POSITIVE. But at least such a number does not induce me to want to vomit.

Today alone: +0.97%.
59 bonds, 38 stocks. (PRWCX = 33.98% of total.)