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Post by chang on Jan 23, 2022 3:15:23 GMT
I hope you're right. But I remember in 2008-2009 how many times I thought to myself, after an ugly day/week, "well that has to be this sell-off's final, cathartic puke. Now it's time to buy." And yet the bottom was still far away. With all the variables in play now (valuations, inflation, pandemic, Ukraine & China, interest rates and the Fed, ...) I don't see how anyone can know when and where the bottom is. Mere mortal investors (us) are lucky to buy/sell within 10% of the bottom/top. Most sell within 10% of the bottom and buy within 10% of the top. That depends how far the bottom is from the top. If the market falls 10%, then everyone buys and sells within 10%. But if the market falls 50%, then I doubt that "most" people buy/sell within 10% of the bottom/top -- indeed getting out and back in within 10% of the extremes would be absolutely superb.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2022 3:17:49 GMT
YTD -9.7% Friday -1.79%
Does that mean my AA needs some change?
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Post by Capital on Jan 23, 2022 10:39:11 GMT
"How did your portfolio do on Friday?" Je ne veux pas en parler steelpony10 , Capital , come on...don't be shy and tell us. I was down .87% Friday. It's weird having one's MM fund one of the top 4 performers. Ok Chahta and steelpony10 I slept on it one more night and now have it in perspective. I was down 1.65% on Friday. Best performer was a tie between my Cash and my MM Funds. Worst performer was FBGRX down 3.12%. All that said, if I had not been in the stock market all these years I would have not had that 1.65% to lose. Also, I would not have the nice amount that I still have.
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Post by steelpony10 on Jan 23, 2022 11:52:32 GMT
Capital , Bingo! Until the DOW gets down to 750 I beat the bank. I don’t see how I ever “lose” anything. The tide just comes in and out lulling me to sleep.* 🤫 * I need my rest. I have to start milking the cows the next two weeks.
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Post by steelpony10 on Jan 23, 2022 12:05:43 GMT
@waffle ,
If you hold 1/3 each of cash a S&P and conventional bond index we all will be wrong all the time. There is no answer (combination) to solve an unknown. If you have a personalized plan instead then you can have an answer all the time. You can just tweak it as your personal circumstances require.
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Post by Birdman96 on Jan 23, 2022 12:36:43 GMT
Our investments dropped .33% on Friday with a 35/55/10 - equity/bond/cash portfolio, which included our first RMD of the year. Pecked away at VTI. Down 2.4% YTD.
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Post by Chahta on Jan 23, 2022 13:29:12 GMT
steelpony10 , perhaps the correct word is "drop" not lose. My portfolio dropped .87%. It lost nothing since I have seen in the market since Dow 800+/- in 1978.
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Post by acksurf on Jan 23, 2022 13:39:31 GMT
Friday: -1.3 YTD: -5.75
However, this is retirement accounts - mostly equity.
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galeno
Commander
KISS & STC
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Post by galeno on Jan 23, 2022 13:47:54 GMT
YTD = (3.24%)
Friday = (1.02)
From max port value = (4.08%)
Port = 51% TWSM (VWRD) + 43% TWBM (AGGG) + 6% CASH
Note to self: PE of TWSM = 17.6. YTM of TWBM = 1.30% (PE = 76.9).
Logic says we should be 80/20. Or even 100/0. I've been hating investment grade bonds since 2006.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2022 14:22:07 GMT
I don’t know; I only check once a quarter. I have been buying a bit of VDIGX on most down days.
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Post by steelpony10 on Jan 23, 2022 15:01:19 GMT
steelpony10 , perhaps the correct word is "drop" not lose. My portfolio dropped .87%. It lost nothing since I have seen in the market since Dow 800+/- in 1978. Yeah you’re correct. Lose is too harsh like something died. FD says “lose” all the time. No need trying to correct that, whistling into the wind. Lol. In conversation I say dropped or went down. I can’t lose what I never really had. Some take less chances “dropping” less and “gaining” less over time. I erred on the gain more drop more side. It looks like that may have been a huge mistake. Apparently we’re doomed this time.
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Post by Capital on Jan 23, 2022 15:25:17 GMT
steelpony10 , perhaps the correct word is "drop" not lose. My portfolio dropped .87%. It lost nothing since I have seen in the market since Dow 800+/- in 1978. Yeah you’re correct. Lose is too harsh like something died. FD says “lose” all the time. No need trying to correct that, whistling into the wind. Lol. In conversation I say dropped or went down. I can’t lose what I never really had. Some take less chances “dropping” less and “gaining” less over time. I erred on the gain more drop more side. It looks like that may have been a huge mistake. Apparently we’re doomed this time. steelpony10 and Chahta I can't tell you who told me, the person swore me to secrecy, so don't ask. But this person is probably well in the know; and, this person says that we will go down until we go back up.
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Post by Capital on Jan 23, 2022 15:34:31 GMT
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Post by oldskeet on Jan 23, 2022 15:56:45 GMT
Capital , Hi Capital and others. I enjoyed the linked article very much as I feel it pretty much covers current market conditions and how investors might govern. For me, I look for pull backs and corrections to be a buying opportunity. I am sure others may feel different. But, by my thinking the markets need a fuel stop of sorts before they can move higher. Will 4Q2021 and 1Q2022 earnings be enough fuel to provide the needed boost? In time, we will see. I am also thinking that we move lower before we move higher. Thus, I plan to buy the pull back and the correction should it come, in the near term, for S&P 500 Index.
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Post by acksurf on Jan 23, 2022 19:37:40 GMT
Everybody here seems pretty seasoned. I don't see any rush to the exits. Like many here I've been focusing on value for a while now (in my case SCHD). I've also started building a position in the International version of SCHD. I also have been shifting some $ from QQQ to JENSX.
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Post by xray on Jan 23, 2022 20:37:27 GMT
The "QUESTION" should be:
HOW DID YOUR PORTFOLIO DO THIS "WEEK". Some securities went up or down from COB last Friday....
Live Long and Prosper....
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Post by uncleharley on Jan 23, 2022 20:41:22 GMT
On Friday my liquid or tradeable port was down 2.76%. It was up about 2% for the week. I hold 80% equities and 20% cash as of the COB friday.
5
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Post by chang on Jan 24, 2022 5:11:00 GMT
Pleased to see that futures are up, because the final LTIP bonus from my previous company hit my brokerage account on Friday after the close. And the pity is, it would have been worth a lot more a week ago.
For various reasons, I do not want to own the shares, and it has been my practice inthe past to sell them immediately. Now, I can either (a) hold onto them for a little while, hoping for a bounce; or (b) sell them today and simultaneously add to a similarly beaten-down asset in my portfolio. I have learned that (a) is pure market timing and absolutely impossible to execute. Therefore, I plan to sell the shares and buy SCHD.
Edit: futures just plunged into the red. This market is in trouble. I will sell the LTIP shares at 9:31 and maybe buy something later in the day … or maybe keep selling.
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Post by anitya on Jan 24, 2022 8:44:24 GMT
M* says my portfolio lost 5% YTD, which Is the worse in this thread so far. What surprised me is M* says my equity is at 63% as of Friday night. That seems way too high. 5% loss I think is accurate. Based on the dollar loss and no losses from fixed income, the 63% equity must be right. I did not realize it crept up so high. So, this gives me a new work item for 2022 - i.e., better monitoring of my portfolio. During March 2020 draw down, I am pretty sure my portfolio was down at least 25%. I am also sure my portfolio is a lot more risky now than then. I do not think I will be selling any - I have already sold some in the past few weeks but not enough I guess. Norbert has been predicting the current market draw down since as far back as August. Good call, Norbert. I looked at my portfolio components over the weekend. My equity sleeve is pre-dominantly growth funds, including international growth funds GISYX and VWIGX. All of these lost YTD way more than QQQ, which lost 11.6%. Each of my dedicated sector sleeve funds in HC lost 15% YTD and they are PRHSX, FSPHX, & FSMEX constituting 6+% of PV at 12/31/2021 - it is unfortunate that PRHSX and FSPHX have lost all their gains made since sometime in December 2020 and October 2020, respectively. These health care funds performed poorly in 2021 relative to index funds VHT and XLV and so, I was not expecting them to lose more than the index funds but they did. Same with the growth funds relative to QQQ. May be the time has come for me to ditch active equity funds.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2022 11:23:22 GMT
I feel like we are watching a game - if the market completes a hail mary earnings pass, score! If a Fed fumble instead....
Time to trust allocations and risk tolerance.
Anitya - I hold FSPHX and FBIOX. I don't worry about them myself. They have very good long term records of returns. Their role, like any etfs or mutual funds I hold are to supplement individual stock holdings as I don't hold an S&P 500, QQQ, or Large Cap index.
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Post by fritzo489 on Jan 24, 2022 14:49:32 GMT
Friday - .81& YTD - 4.02%
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Post by richardsok on Jan 24, 2022 15:47:08 GMT
I'm not going to be philosophical or well-adjusted. That money in my account is MINE, dammit. Not going to shrug my shoulders or willingly surrender one miserable dime. No idea how deep "down" might go.
I love EPD, but took gains (much less than they were last week) on half my very large position as it bounced off today's floor. It's crumbling along with everything else. Hope to buy it back cheaper. Maybe MUCH cheaper. Am now over 60% cash and wish it were 90%.
And look at Pimco: PDI, PDO PTY -- express elevators to hell. Going down. Have given back ALL their Jan bounce ... and then some. Want to watch these as yields approach -- or exceed 10%. Don't expect to return at the right moment, but hope at least the right week. Preferreds are getting interesting too. Just not yet.
Lesson well-learned from 2008: Allocation -- schmallocation. When fit hits the shan, they ALL crater. Like I told pony last week -- Have NO idea when market falls "deep enough". Watch your lo-vol charts. Trust your technicals; not your narrative.
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Post by uncleharley on Jan 24, 2022 16:09:43 GMT
Sell the bump!!!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2022 16:11:26 GMT
I'm going to be buying more based on valuations as they come.
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Post by cactusjack on Jan 24, 2022 16:18:41 GMT
Down 4.3% ytd. The closed end funds are whacking me once again. The leverage makes the divvys nice, but when the market heads south, it sure accelerates the move.
Bright spots are VOD, BTI, and whaddya know...GLDI for a small rise so far today.
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Post by Capital on Jan 24, 2022 16:27:59 GMT
Looks like the answer to the OP might be "better that the following Monday" the way things are going so far today.
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Post by Chahta on Jan 24, 2022 17:36:55 GMT
OK, let's report today. LOL
At least the 10 year bond is holding up.........for now.
A Black Swan every other year?
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Post by Chahta on Jan 24, 2022 17:39:18 GMT
Um, what bump? Oh you mean the one at the bottom of the roller coaster?
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Post by uncleharley on Jan 24, 2022 18:22:27 GMT
Um, what bump? Oh you mean the one at the bottom of the roller coaster? Nope. I meant the one the lunch hr traders gave us. Sorry, I should have been more specific. It's too late now.
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Post by retiredat48 on Jan 24, 2022 18:45:05 GMT
M* says my portfolio lost 5% YTD, which Is the worse in this thread so far. What surprised me is M* says my equity is at 63% as of Friday night. That seems way too high. 5% loss I think is accurate. Based on the dollar loss and no losses from fixed income, the 63% equity must be right. I did not realize it crept up so high. So, this gives me a new work item for 2022 - i.e., better monitoring of my portfolio. During March 2020 draw down, I am pretty sure my portfolio was down at least 25%. I am also sure my portfolio is a lot more risky now than then. I do not think I will be selling any - I have already sold some in the past few weeks but not enough I guess. Norbert has been predicting the current market draw down since as far back as August. Good call, Norbert. I looked at my portfolio components over the weekend. My equity sleeve is pre-dominantly growth funds, including international growth funds GISYX and VWIGX. All of these lost YTD way more than QQQ, which lost 11.6%. Each of my dedicated sector sleeve funds in HC lost 15% YTD and they are PRHSX, FSPHX, & FSMEX constituting 6+% of PV at 12/31/2021 - it is unfortunate that PRHSX and FSPHX have lost all their gains made since sometime in December 2020 and October 2020, respectively. These health care funds performed poorly in 2021 relative to index funds VHT and XLV and so, I was not expecting them to lose more than the index funds but they did. Same with the growth funds relative to QQQ. May be the time has come for me to ditch active equity funds. +1...Nice post.An alternative...incorporate into one's investing, the mantra: IF ANY OF MY ACTIVELY MANAGED FUNDS IS LAGGING ITS COMPARABLE INDEX FUND, OR BENCHMARK, SELL IT AND BUY THE INDEX FUND, AS A MINIMUM.
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