|
|
Post by Fearchar on Jan 14, 2022 18:58:08 GMT
This thread is intended to address PIMCO CEFs in general, but it's okay to focus on a particular PIMCO CEF as well.
As many posters already realize there are a number of various PIMCO CEFs.
At one time, there were over 20, but since then a few were combined and at least 1 new one started.
I check on most of PIMCO CEFs only about once a month.
Five of the PIMCO CEFs though are on my daily monitor:
PDI (only one that I currently own)
PTY
PFL
PCM
PHK
Today is a solidly down day for 4 of the 5.
For some reason, earlier in the day PCM was up, but it too has since turned.
It has not sold off as much today as the other CEFs mentioned, but there is little reason for this that I can see.
In general, price movements of these CEFs correlate with the broader market.
As today is a down day, it should be little surprise to see so many CEFs trading lower.
While PIMCO CEFs can provide additional return to a portfolio, they do not reduce the volatility.
The absolute best time to buy PIMCO CEFs is during credit crunches when the spreads between investment grade and junk is wide.
Today is not that day.
|
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Jan 14, 2022 20:24:36 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by xray on Jan 14, 2022 21:14:00 GMT
yogibearbull, Your: I have been accumulating PDI, PDO. PDO hit a new low of 18.95 today. Showed up on my new low/new high listing today. You might be on to something if your analysis shows a undervalued status. Last insider buy was for 5,000sh at 19.60 on 12/17 and they don't buy their securities unless they are looking at "something" positive [going forward).... Can't help much on adding anything to your analysis as I don't currently track PDO at the current time.... Live Long and Prosper....
|
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Jan 14, 2022 22:26:58 GMT
I may have bought some of PDO that richardsok sold  . |
|
|
|
Post by FD1000 on Jan 14, 2022 23:17:51 GMT
I said early last year that PIMIX isn't the place to be, and I don't think for 2022 either. PIMIX performance:...2021=2.6%...2020 YTD =-0.6% (today another -0.08%). From Pimco outlook for 2022 "On spread sectors, we find corporate credit appears fully valued and at this stage of the cycle, residual economic performance will tend to accrue to equities over credit. As such, we see little opportunity for spread compression outside of unique opportunities identified by our credit analysts. Securitized credit, on the other hand, still offers attractive value in our view, particularly in non-agency U.S. mortgages, where a strong consumer balance sheet and housing market underpin improving credit quality at spreads that we see as cheap relative to corporate bonds." The main reason IMO, it's too big and they can't implement their best ideas in specialized MBS. Below is PIMIX categories + % as of 12/31/2021. As you can see they have only MBS=44 but they also have HY+EM=42% All the specialized MBS funds I follow beat PIMIX easily in 2021 and are ahead in 2022 because they have a much higher % in specialized MBS. Disclaimer: I used to own PIMIX from 2011 to 01/2018 at a very high %, several years over 40-50%. Attachments:
|
|
|
|
Post by retiredat48 on Jan 15, 2022 3:29:28 GMT
I said early last year that PIMIX isn't the place to be, and I don't think for 2022 either. PIMIX performance:...2021=2.6%...2020 YTD =-0.6% (today another -0.08%). From Pimco outlook for 2022 "On spread sectors, we find corporate credit appears fully valued and at this stage of the cycle, residual economic performance will tend to accrue to equities over credit. As such, we see little opportunity for spread compression outside of unique opportunities identified by our credit analysts. Securitized credit, on the other hand, still offers attractive value in our view, particularly in non-agency U.S. mortgages, where a strong consumer balance sheet and housing market underpin improving credit quality at spreads that we see as cheap relative to corporate bonds." The main reason IMO, it's too big and they can't implement their best ideas in specialized MBS. Below is PIMIX categories + % as of 12/31/2021. As you can see they have only MBS=44 but they also have HY+EM=42% All the specialized MBS funds I follow beat PIMIX easily in 2021 and are ahead in 2022 because they have a much higher % in specialized MBS. Disclaimer: I used to own PIMIX from 2011 to 01/2018 at a very high %, several years over 40-50%. Doesn't your post suggest: Own PIMCO's PDI and PDO??...mortgaged backed loans/leveraged. R48 |
|
|
|
Post by FD1000 on Jan 15, 2022 5:12:27 GMT
I said early last year that PIMIX isn't the place to be, and I don't think for 2022 either. PIMIX performance:...2021=2.6%...2020 YTD =-0.6% (today another -0.08%). From Pimco outlook for 2022 "On spread sectors, we find corporate credit appears fully valued and at this stage of the cycle, residual economic performance will tend to accrue to equities over credit. As such, we see little opportunity for spread compression outside of unique opportunities identified by our credit analysts. Securitized credit, on the other hand, still offers attractive value in our view, particularly in non-agency U.S. mortgages, where a strong consumer balance sheet and housing market underpin improving credit quality at spreads that we see as cheap relative to corporate bonds." The main reason IMO, it's too big and they can't implement their best ideas in specialized MBS. Below is PIMIX categories + % as of 12/31/2021. As you can see they have only MBS=44 but they also have HY+EM=42% All the specialized MBS funds I follow beat PIMIX easily in 2021 and are ahead in 2022 because they have a much higher % in specialized MBS. Disclaimer: I used to own PIMIX from 2011 to 01/2018 at a very high %, several years over 40-50%. Doesn't your post suggest: Own PIMCO's PDI and PDO??...mortgaged backed loans/leveraged. R48 I don't own CEFs, only trade them seldom. Generic opinion here: these leveraged CEFs have stocks volatility and should measure against them. These should be mostly traded for good traders. This week was a good example: PDI price lost -2.2% in just one wek...PIMIX lost -0.1%. I posted many times about CEFs. Only the price count since you trade only price. More ( here). I also showed several times how SPY made 4+ times more than PDI in the last 3 years and it would take PDI 10 years to catch up. Bottom line: I'm not a fan of CEFs. If you own them they should be part of your stock portion. To your question: PDI has a much higher specialized MBS. It doesn't have PIMIX problem because the numbers of shares is fixed. |
|
|
|
Post by racqueteer on Jan 15, 2022 13:37:20 GMT
Doesn't your post suggest: Own PIMCO's PDI and PDO??...mortgaged backed loans/leveraged. R48 I don't own CEFs, only trade them seldom. Generic opinion here: these leveraged CEFs have stocks volatility and should measure against them. These should be mostly traded for good traders. This week was a good example: PDI price lost -2.2% in just one wek...PIMIX lost -0.1%. I posted many times about CEFs. Only the price count since you trade only price. More ( here). I also showed several times how SPY made 4+ times more than PDI in the last 3 years and it would take PDI 10 years to catch up. Bottom line: I'm not a fan of CEFs. If you own them they should be part of your stock portion. To your question: PDI has a much higher specialized MBS. It doesn't have PIMIX problem because the numbers of shares is fixed. I'm inclined to agree here. Their are, imo, two distinct motivations for at least sometimes owning cefs, and one concern which impacts the decision of owning or not:
I've tended to view CEFs as being similar to annuities; in that they (mostly) provide you a dependable monthly income, but with the added advantage of retaining SOME value after your demise; something annuities don't.
The other motivation is the usual TR concern cited by FD. The TR is the combination of current value plus dividends compared to the starting value. The only way to gain an advantage here is if a) the dividend goes up or remains constant, and b) the price goes up or remains constant. Specifically, you want the sum of dividend plus price change to be positive. Since dividends tend to be fixed, the PRICE CHANGE becomes the dominant factor. The only way to get a (favorable) price change involves trading issues, so the way to take advantage of them requires trading.
Two different motivations, unfortunately, make for argument <g>.
CEFs are often mispriced; this is an advantage if you're a trader. PIMIX was a good example back when FD held it. The market had priced mortgage loans as if they were nearly worthless. They proved NOT to be, and clever CEF traders saw the price rise; while ALSO collecting the dividends. The thing IS, though, if you are a TRADER, then you have to appreciate that the prices of CEFs are as volatile as equities, and one needs to accommodate that fact into their decision-making.
Note that actually CHOOSING a good CEF candidate is a separate issue. I'm probably not telling anyone here anything they didn't know; this would probably be more useful posted somewhere like M* where it might help novices.
|
|
|
|
Post by FD1000 on Jan 16, 2022 0:22:40 GMT
racqueteer , I appreciate and agree with your comment regarding CEFs. However, this thread is intended to address JPMorgan Insights. There are several other threads for CEFs. I just started one yesterday for PIMCO CEFs, which appear to be favorites for many of our members. Thanks! CEFs are a valid discussion within this thread as they are another and unique investment option. CEFs threads are for investors who are already convinced it's a good option. Raq, if you are a good trader then stocks should make more than CEFs. I made more in bond OEFs than CEFs with much lower SD in the last 3 years. CEFs are mispriced? Sure, stocks are also mispriced. The only potential positive for CEF may be if the next years would be better than stocks. I believe markets do change. So far I haven't seen it since I started following CEFs. The annuity reason falls apart too. The proof is ( here). Basically, the most critical criteria for investment is the total returns which include all the distributions. |
|
|
|
Post by Fearchar on Jan 16, 2022 22:07:49 GMT
PIMCO CEF Summary Price, NAV, Premium and Dist. are standard. AvgCvDist is the distribution adjusted by the 3 month, 6 month and Fiscal Year to Date coverage ratios as reported November 1-30, 2021. Will updated when December numbers are available.  |
|
|
|
Post by retiredat48 on Jan 16, 2022 22:08:17 GMT
I'm confused...is this a thread on PIMCO CEFs??? or not?
R48
|
|
|
|
Post by Fearchar on Jan 16, 2022 22:13:45 GMT
Yes; however some of the above posts were found in another thread.
|
|
.
