Retirement Insomnia

[galeno]

Here's the stuff that keeps me up at night.

Financial

In Jan 1980, the DJIA / 1oz Gold Ratio = 1.2. In Feb 1933 it was 2.9.

In Jan 2000 it was 40. Today it sits at 20. YTD USD CPI = 6.8%.

Geopolitical

These are the 3 ingredients of a failing empire. I.e. USA.
1. Monetization of debt.
2. Internal conflict due to 1.
3. Challenge by a rising power.

Add climate change and personal security threats to the equation.

Cultural

The belief in "positive rights" (e.g. rights to healthcare, housing, living wage jobs, etc.) and a lot of state imposed woke nonsense.

[shipwreckedandalone]

An enormous amount of human capital is spent attempting to forecast the future movements of securities. Much of it is wrong. There is only one thing about financial markets I am 100% positive of.....there WILL BE another recession. The last 2 were down 49% and 57%.

[uncleharley]

Your stats make gold look lke an almost sure bet. Fwiw, I have moved CEF up on my watch list.

[steelpony10]

galeno ,shipwreckedandalone ,uncleharley ,

           Once you factor in the odds you’re going to live long enough to see the end of civilization all those thoughts should go away. If not there’s chemicals out there to help you sleep.

           How about this slant after 2 million years of evolution we’re at the very start, 2 thousand years plus, of organized governments. Look at it as different business models. They will evolve and change as civilization and culture evolves. We will not be here to see future results.

[alvinthechipmunk]

I can't turn off my brain at night. Not for worrying about the portfolio. "Developed" countries behave like banana republics. "Emerging" markets slide further behind the curve... The world is awash in corruption and violence and injustice. Parents do not do their jobs. Kids are habitual criminals before they graduate. Can I change it all myself? No. But make it plural: if WE change the systems and at the same time convince people not to behave like assholes, things could improve quite a bit. But first, you (plural) have to WANT to do it. And "looking out for Number One" always takes precedence. Ya, I'm still an idealist. Knocked down and beat up, but still possessed of hope.

[galeno]

Gold and LTT (long term treasuries) are secret sauces. Use a small amount (like 10% each) and the portfolio performs better. Use too much and your port will underperform. 

Dec 28, 2021 15:04:04 GMT uncleharley said:

Your stats make gold look lke an almost sure bet. Fwiw, I have moved CEF up on my watch list.

[kathiel]

I'm sorry you are having troube sleeping, galeno. I don't recommend the popular sleep drugs, but I do recommend accurate info about the US economy. Take look at "This is the worst economy we never had". I read it in the WSJ, but in checking online it has been published in a number of reliable news sources/

[Chahta]

I get it galeno. We are spending ourselves into oblivion. We are becoming so woke China and Russia only need out wait us. No one really cares about inflation or what the cost of energy does to working folks. They are causing animosity between "classes" of citizens. The first thought of government is not what they can do for citizens but only about their ideological views of "how" they want it.

[kathiel]

The latest economic data indicates that while there is inflation, running about 5-6% year over year, wages have gone up even more, especially for those at the lower end of the wage scale. I think the things that threaten our way of life most are economic inequality and voter suppression. Providing healthcare, housing, and living wage jobs for all will help preserve our way of life, IMO.

Obviously my politics are different from those of many here.

[Chahta]

And for those that earn no wages?

[galeno]

"Obviously my politics are different from those of many here."

Not necesarily.

In Costa Rica I vote Social Democrat. Far more "left" ECONOMICALLY than the Bernie Sanders democrats.

If I were a US citizen I'd vote GOP. I can't stand the cultural wokism nonsense. The American people have a grim choice ahead. Red autocracy or blue plutocracy. Plutocracy always leads to autocracy.

For decades I tolerated US exeptionalism (i.e. neoliberal imperialism) because it was a net benefit for CR. Now I'm not so sure.

[Chahta]

Dec 31, 2021 0:58:27 GMT galeno said:

"Obviously my politics are different from those of many here."

Not necesarily.

In Costa Rica I vote Social Democrat. Far more "left" ECONOMICALLY than the Bernie Sanders democrats.

If I were a US citizen I'd vote GOP. I can't stand the cultural wokism nonsense. The American people have a grim choice ahead. Red autocracy or blue plutocracy. Plutocracy always leads to autocracy.

For decades I tolerated US exeptionalism (i.e. neoliberal imperialism) because it was a net benefit for CR. Now I'm not so sure.

Interesting.

[kathiel]

Yes, it is interesting. We have more political diversity here than I might have guessed.

I don't know what you mean by "cultural wokism" galeno.

[Deleted]

We could be one Covid variation away from 90% of humankind wiped out. Don't sweat the small stuff

[Chahta]

Dec 31, 2021 11:19:53 GMT @django said:

We could be one Covid variation away from 90% of humankind wiped out. Don't sweat the small stuff

Don't sweat it. The strong will survive. But then again the MSM thinks not.