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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2021 3:38:07 GMT
Vanguard International Growth - VWILX:
I have it in my wife's 401k - 25% allocation. It did not do well this year. But international and EM as categories did not do well this year.
Should I give it 6 more months or fold?
It is M* 5* and silver rating. Long time manager change happening soon I believe.
Anyone holds it or follows it?
(surprisingly another usually good fund in that same 401k account did very bad this year - PRMTX - T. Rowe Price Communications & Technology. I am getting out of PRMTX. Edit: PRMTX had allocation to chinese stocks and the current manager got out of chinese stocks at loss so this underperformance of PRMTX could be one time thing. Still getting out of it.)
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Post by roi2020 on Dec 23, 2021 4:15:21 GMT
According to M*, VWILX returned -2.27% YTD lagging 90% of funds in the Foreign Large Growth category.
In 2020, VWILX returned 59.74% which beat 96% of funds in the category.
The fund's 3 Yr, 5 Yr, 10 Yr, and 15 Yr trailing total returns are well within the top-decile of the Foreign Large Growth category.
Although VWILX has generated excellent returns, it is a volatile fund.
If the fund's volatility makes you uneasy, perhaps you may want to reconsider your position here.
P.S. - James Anderson is a very influential manager but I'm not too concerned about his pending retirement.
His retirement was planned well in advance and the remaining Baillie Gifford team is capable.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2021 5:24:06 GMT
Thanks, I will give it one more year and again decide at end of 2022. I searched this forum and noticed it is quite a popular fund here.
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Post by anitya on Dec 23, 2021 7:16:51 GMT
I bought a foothold to test it and forgot about it. I probably should close it out because 10th percentile performance while experiencing outflows in each of the past nine months is a red flag. It is an easy choice to exit for me because I do not have to have FOMO. I am not a big international equity investor and I can just move this to cash or to a domestic fund.
If I had a large position, I would find an alternate fund that I like and slowly dollar cost average out. This way, I will not miss any miracles but I also do not have to live off of hope. Good luck.
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Post by chang on Dec 23, 2021 9:21:45 GMT
If I had a large position, I would find an alternate fund that I like and slowly dollar cost average out. This way, I will not miss any miracles but I also do not have to live off of hope. Good luck. I take a slightly more macro view. The fund is very growthy, by conventional metrics, compared to most Foreign LC funds. P/E is 28.8 vs. 14.7 for its benchmark index… www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vwilx/portfolio… And growth has stalled somewhat, following the Covid-fueled boom in growth/tech stocks, and of course China has been hit hard (currently 13% of the fund). I still see a 5* fund with a 0.32% ER. Management, although possibly a little bit too well stocked with cooks for the soup, has excellent credentials. If you want exposure to Baillie Gifford's own funds you'll pay 5x the expense ratio. investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/portfolio/vwilxDisclosure: I did sell a chunk of this fund a few months ago, as part of a risk/equity reduction task across my overall portfolio. But I still own a good chunk. I cannot advise anyone on this, but personally, I'm pretty happy with the fund. The only thing that really irritated me recently was that gargantuan distribution. |
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Post by anitya on Dec 23, 2021 14:32:10 GMT
If I had a large position, I would find an alternate fund that I like and slowly dollar cost average out. This way, I will not miss any miracles but I also do not have to live off of hope. Good luck. I take a slightly more macro view. The fund is very growthy, by conventional metrics, compared to most Foreign LC funds. P/E is 28.8 vs. 14.7 for its benchmark index… www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vwilx/portfolio… And growth has stalled somewhat, following the Covid-fueled boom in growth/tech stocks, and of course China has been hit hard (currently 13% of the fund). I still see a 5* fund with a 0.32% ER. Management, although possibly a little bit too well stocked with cooks for the soup, has excellent credentials. If you want exposure to Baillie Gifford's own funds you'll pay 5x the expense ratio. investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/portfolio/vwilxDisclosure: I did sell a chunk of this fund a few months ago, as part of a risk/equity reduction task across my overall portfolio. But I still own a good chunk. I cannot advise anyone on this, but personally, I'm pretty happy with the fund. The only thing that really irritated me recently was that gargantuan distribution. Not trying to change your mind and not a recommendation but per M* GISYX has a P/E of 33.6 while its benchmark index has a ratio of 13.5. Given VWILX is in the bottom 10% of its category, I am sure if I spent time I will be able to find other funds in that category with similar P/E as VWILX and performing better. I am questioning my own propensity to use P/Es as decision points for active funds; while I stopped using ER a long time ago. |
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Post by fishingrod on Dec 23, 2021 15:30:50 GMT
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Post by fishingrod on Dec 23, 2021 15:48:58 GMT
9/30/2021- Vanguard
"For the quarter, Vanguard International Growth Fund underperformed its benchmark, the MSCI All Country World Index ex USA (–2.99%), and peer-group average (–1.82%). Security selection in health care (+10.5%) and information technology (+4.3%) was positive, but an overweight allocation to consumer discretionary (–10.9%) ultimately led to the underperformance overall. In health care, top contributor Moderna (+64%) drove results, while IT largely benefited from top contributors ASML Holding (+9%) and Adyen (+15%). By region, strong selection in North America (+10.8%) helped performance, while weak selection in emerging markets (–22.0%), specifically China (–27.2%), dragged on results. Within North America, selection in the United States (+11.3%) boosted returns, driven by Moderna. In China, key detractor Alibaba (–35%) weighed on returns."
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Post by anitya on Jul 29, 2023 0:30:14 GMT
chang , Have you looked into VWILX allocation to China? I am guessing it is fairly high, based on today’s China stock price action. I am thinking about dumping more of my direct China exposure in favor of VWILX or some other active fund that may tactically allocate to China.
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Post by chang on Jul 29, 2023 7:13:30 GMT
I haven't exactly "followed" its China allocation, but I think its always been reasonably significant ~ 10%. Right now it's at 9.7%. investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vwilx#portfolio-composition"that may tactically allocate to China" may or may not be a good characterization. It's an active fund, so it will go where it wants to. But the fund always seems to have some China exposure, and weren't very nimble in fleeing Chinese equities when China tanked. So the China allocation may be semi-tactical, semi-strategic (permanent). I've mentioned before that I've been out of EM and Asia funds for a couple of years. At one time I owned funds like MITEX, MIAPX, FEMKX, FSEAX, and they surged up to the Covid crash, the Alibaba/Jack Ma drama, and the Chinese ADR worries. I let about 1/3 of my gains evaporate (not being as smart as rhythmmethod and retiredat48 who got out before I did) but still profited handsomely. But since then, I've just not seen a huge incentive to get back in. Developed foreign markets (VEA) look more enticing. Back to VWILX - it's obviously a go-anywhere type fund. I have made two large buys in the last month, and there's probably one more to go. (Should have done it on Thursday.) I simply view it as a well-managed, very lows cost, 3* fund which will invariably revert to its historical 4*-5* level of performance. (Actually, that's a misleading comment. Morningstar *-ratings measure risk-adjusted performance. VWILX has always been somewhat volatile, so it may very well be a top-decile fund in terms of returns, but still a 3* fund. If you're thinking long term, then what matters is simply return, not risk-adjusted return.) |
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Post by chang on Jul 29, 2023 7:21:35 GMT
Not trying to change your mind and not a recommendation but per M* GISYX has a P/E of 33.6 while its benchmark index has a ratio of 13.5. Given VWILX is in the bottom 10% of its category, I am sure if I spent time I will be able to find other funds in that category with similar P/E as VWILX and performing better. I am questioning my own propensity to use P/Es as decision points for active funds; while I stopped using ER a long time ago. I just noticed this previous remark. For the record, I was a rather happy owner of GPMCX and GGSYX (global version of GISYX) several years ago. They performed stupendously, despite not being cheap funds. But I sold them into the Covid crash, and never got around to buying in. Then they lost some people, then came the banking crisis and they were caught holding Silicon Valley and First Republic up to the brim. I was very unimpressed with their defense of that. Bottom line: I don't have confidence in GP anymore and would not own their funds. |
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Post by anitya on Jul 29, 2023 19:18:40 GMT
chang, Can not agree more with you on GP. They had more problems than you cited. I can tolerate underperformance but not mismanagement. We have one poster here who has a sizeable position with them and for that poster’s sake I am hoping GP gets their act together fast. Thanks for the thoughts on VWILX. It would be a long term hold if I get in. Like you, I think it is a well managed firm offering. My only hesitation is the size of the fund. I will see if I can find a smaller AUM fund from a well managed firm but VWILX can be a buy and forget, especially given my small international allocation. BTW, RIO cut their Div and now yields 5.5%, I think. After three days of losses, may be the price will stabilize. Div cuts for super high dividend payers comes with the territory.
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Post by chang on Jul 29, 2023 20:35:31 GMT
My only hesitation is the size of the fund. I will see if I can find a smaller AUM fund from a well managed firm but VWILX can be a buy and forget, especially given my small international allocation. BTW, RIO cut their Div and now yields 5.5%, I think. After three days of losses, may be the price will stabilize. Div cuts for super high dividend payers comes with the territory. I wouldn't worry about the size of the fund. It's very large-cap oriented, and there are multiple managers. I could be wrong, but I don't see an AUM issue at $45b. RIO: Sad news indeed, as I am a holder. Yahoo Finance is showing 7.92% for RIO.L. I'm not sure if that's stale or not. I won't be adding, but I won't be selling either. Curiously enough, BHP fell over 5 days in almost the same way as RIO, but they didn't cut their dividend. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2023 16:20:22 GMT
"Can not agree more with you on GP. They had more problems than you cited. I can tolerate underperformance but not mismanagement. We have one poster here who has a sizeable position with them and for that poster’s sake I am hoping GP gets their act together fast."
If you're talking about me, I've been invested in GISYX for not quite 5 years. I bought back to my target in the panic of 2020 at $11, sold back to my target in the fall of 2021 at over $27 per share, and have recently bought back to target at around $16. My not quite 5 yr. annualized return is 8.96%. Perhaps not the greatest, but hardly a disaster.
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Post by anitya on Jul 30, 2023 16:51:03 GMT
"Can not agree more with you on GP. They had more problems than you cited. I can tolerate underperformance but not mismanagement. We have one poster here who has a sizeable position with them and for that poster’s sake I am hoping GP gets their act together fast." If you're talking about me, I've been invested in GISYX for not quite 5 years. I bought back to my target in the panic of 2020 at $11, sold back to my target in the fall of 2021 at over $27 per share, and have recently bought back to target at around $16. My not quite 5 yr. annualized return is 8.96%. Perhaps not the greatest, but hardly a disaster. I was not referring to you or anyone specific but I remember someone post here about their sizeable investment. I was not making any judgement on the poster’s prowess to trade or make money. If it was you, based on the trades you just shared, good for you. I too have made tons of money trading funds with mismanaged companies but that does not change that those are not buy and hold investments. Everybody has a different threshold to put up with BS. I have not seen sufficient changes at GP to change my mind that I will buy IOFIX before buying any GP funds. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2023 23:21:20 GMT
Well, I went through something similar when PRIMECAP loaded up on airline stocks in the late 1990's. Their thesis on air travel was about as wrong as could be. I'm glad I stood by them.
Although I didn't own GGSYX, I'm not sure I could hold the managers responsible for what the regulators also missed, although I must also say, I wasn't impressed with the management response either.
Really, the point of my previous post was not to brag about my trading acumen, all I did was rebalance, but to say if it was me referenced, I've done alright, and "for my sake", no one should worry.
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Post by anitya on Aug 1, 2023 18:51:54 GMT
My only hesitation is the size of the fund. I will see if I can find a smaller AUM fund from a well managed firm but VWILX can be a buy and forget, especially given my small international allocation. BTW, RIO cut their Div and now yields 5.5%, I think. After three days of losses, may be the price will stabilize. Div cuts for super high dividend payers comes with the territory. I wouldn't worry about the size of the fund. It's very large-cap oriented, and there are multiple managers. I could be wrong, but I don't see an AUM issue at $45b. RIO: Sad news indeed, as I am a holder. Yahoo Finance is showing 7.92% for RIO.L. I'm not sure if that's stale or not. I won't be adding, but I won't be selling either. Curiously enough, BHP fell over 5 days in almost the same way as RIO, but they didn't cut their dividend. China market has been a terrible investment on a long term basis but a good place for short term trades. VWILX fund size is relevant as I was thinking of a fund that would tactically allocate to China. Otherwise, no issue with its size. Today, Yahoo shows RIO has a dividend yield of 6% - nothing to sneeze about but the negative reaction of those investing in it for its presumed 8% div yield (not to mention the special dividends) was inevitable. |
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Post by chang on Aug 1, 2023 19:30:47 GMT
China market has been a terrible investment on a long term basis but a good place for short term trades. VWILX fund size is relevant as I was thinking of a fund that would tactically allocate to China. Otherwise, no issue with its size. Today, Yahoo shows RIO has a dividend yield of 6%. I don't think VWILX is the fund for that purpose. Turnover is 15% per M*. They're not rapid traders. Which is a plus in my book. |
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Post by roi2020 on Aug 2, 2023 5:06:08 GMT
VWILX China Exposure
Annual Report (08/31/2018)
China - 16.6%
Semiannual Report (02/28/2019)
China - 18.9%
Annual Report (08/31/2020)
China - 14.4%
Annual Report (08/31/2021)
China - 14.0%
Annual Report (08/31/2022)
China - 14.6%
Semiannual Report (02/28/2023)
China - 11.2%
Vanguard website (06/30/2023)
China - 9.70%
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Post by rhythmmethod on Aug 2, 2023 16:24:25 GMT
chang, HA - Please don't hold me as a smart example. We're all screwed if that's the case. I think VWILX is a good fund and likely will do well going forward. For me, however, I don't want the hassle. My foreign exposure via SCHY, FMSDX, and others gives me the foreign I need - maybe more than I need going forward. I'll go with the MSFT, AAPL, and AMZN for growth—all of these I have been trimming for a few months. I may well buy back lower if the opportunity arrives. It looks like it could be sooner than later. OT - BME - is the fud I've been adding to for the past few months. It fits my risk profile of potential CG, decent income, and relatively low volatility. Stay well, -RM
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