|
|
Post by steadyeddy on Dec 4, 2021 23:34:44 GMT
CEF aficianados,
I understand the impending merger of PCI, PKO and PDI within a week or so. But curious why PDI had a significant price drawdown? Is it all about the premium evaporating?
What are the general expectations on how this merger might play out?
Thanks in advance.đ˘ ahead ?đahead?
|
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Dec 5, 2021 0:14:38 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by richardsok on Dec 5, 2021 0:29:50 GMT
I couldn't tell you the "general" expectation, but I'm encouraged that PDO announced an EOY special distribution. It is quite similar to PCI and PDI.
|
|
|
|
Post by steadyeddy on Dec 6, 2021 0:55:23 GMT
yogibearbull, thank you! I also noticed the NAV of PDI dropped about 4% from $25-ish to $24-ish in the last few months.
|
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Dec 10, 2021 15:21:01 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Dec 10, 2021 15:30:54 GMT
The weekly and daily charts indicate there is established price support for PDI at about 25.10. I am curious to see if that changes with the merger. I seem to recall they were anticipating a NAV of 24 or so after the merger. |
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Dec 10, 2021 16:25:47 GMT
The weekly and daily charts indicate there is established price support for PDI at about 25.10. I am curious to see if that changes with the merger. I seem to recall they were anticipating a NAV of 24 or so after the merger. There you have 25.10 for PDI right now. I suppose should have waited but I am already all in as of this AM. |
|
|
|
Post by steadyeddy on Dec 14, 2021 2:10:41 GMT
The weekly and daily charts indicate there is established price support for PDI at about 25.10. I am curious to see if that changes with the merger. I seem to recall they were anticipating a NAV of 24 or so after the merger. There you have 25.10 for PDI right now. I suppose should have waited but I am already all in as of this AM. , richardsok , uncleharley , I picked up some today at 25.07. Also as indicated in B/S/W thread I have lightened my vanilla bond ETFs today. Plan is to increase PDI in a measured way. |
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Dec 14, 2021 15:35:11 GMT
We are 4 days past merger day and have had 4 consecutive down days on above average trading volume. It is probably time to tighten ones stops to 24.65 or so
.
|
|
|
|
Post by steadyeddy on Dec 14, 2021 15:42:46 GMT
We are 4 days past merger day and have had 4 consecutive down days on above average trading volume. It is probably time to tighten ones stops to 24.65 or so . , I thought yesterday was the first day post merger? Also, are you trying to get out at 24.65? |
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Dec 14, 2021 15:45:44 GMT
I couldn't get ANY PDI in my $24-25 range before the merger. So, I may just put in a limit order around $24. There are still things unknown such as post-merger distribution rate. PDI info is not yet updated at CEFConnect, M*, Pimco.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Dec 14, 2021 16:13:06 GMT
We are 4 days past merger day and have had 4 consecutive down days on above average trading volume. It is probably time to tighten ones stops to 24.65 or so . PTY getting beat up as well. |
|
|
|
Post by Fearchar on Dec 14, 2021 16:20:54 GMT
PCM is getting beat worse.
|
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Dec 14, 2021 16:27:03 GMT
It might be the season or anticipation of the Fed report.
|
|
|
|
Post by rhythmmethod on Dec 14, 2021 16:39:58 GMT
If you bought these to increase yield and are reinvesting div., you will be buying more shares cheaper. I bet this is EOY drama. I'm within my allocation and am okay with fluctuation of price.
|
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Dec 14, 2021 17:41:02 GMT
If you bought these to increase yield and are reinvesting div., you will be buying more shares cheaper. I bet this is EOY drama. I'm within my allocation and am okay with fluctuation of price. I agree that it is probably EOY drama. The Accumulation/Distribution tool at stockcharts indicates on the 4 hr chart there is some short term accumulation going on now. |
|
|
|
Post by chang on Dec 14, 2021 18:01:44 GMT
Out of curiosity, if you were a bystander with a mere passing interest and no current investment in PDI, what would you consider an attractive entry point for a flutter? The chart doesnât look very appealing to me.
|
|
|
|
Post by rhythmmethod on Dec 14, 2021 18:12:30 GMT
Out of curiosity, if you were a bystander with a mere passing interest and no current investment in PDI, what would you consider an attractive entry point for a flutter? The chart doesnât look very appealing to me. Hi chang , As you know I'm not much of a chartist. I took a small amount ~ 6% of PF and allocated it to FI CEFs. I did so for the reason of increasing cash flow a year or more in the future. I'm letting them compound in the meantime. There are a lot of questions, more than answers on PDI, but I consider the PIMCO gang to be pretty smart. To quote richardsok , I'm hopeful that this is year end drama. I've seen it before. I consider the current price attractive, certainly more than my initial purchase. We'll see... |
|
|
|
Post by Fearchar on Dec 14, 2021 18:39:36 GMT
Out of curiosity, if you were a bystander with a mere passing interest and no current investment in PDI, what would you consider an attractive entry point for a flutter? The chart doesnât look very appealing to me. Ideally, I'm looking for the ICE BofA US High Yield Index to be over 7%. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2There is too much greed in the high yield arena right now. Corporate Spreads should be over 2% fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CM |
|
|
|
Post by richardsok on Dec 14, 2021 20:13:06 GMT
Out of curiosity, if you were a bystander with a mere passing interest and no current investment in PDI, what would you consider an attractive entry point for a flutter? The chart doesnât look very appealing to me. For six months now, PDI has been dropping fitfully from around 29 to about 24.30 -- this from a fund that has been clearly out-earning its distributions and, at today's price, distributes 10.5%. OK, several months ago, holders may have been spooked by the premium (maybe), and a couple of weeks ago, people may have been fearful of the merger. I began buying the CEFs a week or so before the merger -- clearly too early, but I am far from giving up on a fund paying me 9.5% YOC. With current distributions, I see only two reasons a yield-seeker would exit or avoid PDI today. (A) He believes the distribution cannot be maintained or (B) he is harvesting the tax loss. As for (A). the original funds PDI, PKO, PCI and PDO were all over-earning like a house on fire for the previous six months, and I see no reason to believe they will stumble massively now. For (B), tax-loss selling MUST end soon and it's a fair bet opportunists will soon be crowding in. It would be a simple matter of watching PDI's short term charts around Christmas. Nemmemine the price. Watch the chart. IMO. |
|
|
|
Post by retiredat48 on Dec 14, 2021 21:24:56 GMT
Out of curiosity, if you were a bystander with a mere passing interest and no current investment in PDI, what would you consider an attractive entry point for a flutter? The chart doesnât look very appealing to me. I just posted the following to Fearchar on another thread: IMO there is a leveraged mortgage-based CEF, namely PDI, a PIMCO Fund that has undergone a merger of likes, and is getting sold off to what may be very attractive prices and yields. Only, the actual yield may not be known until Jan distributions announced (any day now). You could read up on PDI ( a fav of many posters) on forums, and decide whether or not to allocate some money here. You may be looking at 8-9% yield. Premium near zero. Tax loss selling should dry up shortly before year end. I will add: Everyone knows I only add in uptrends...that Pyramid Up thing. However, that only applies to stock funds. Bonds are not growth instruments; they are contractual instruments. So you know the dividend/yield, price and duration. Thus they may be bought in selloffs, for you are simply locking in terms (barring defaults of course). And yes, with mortgage backed securities, and housing prices zooming upward, default risk very small. I will likely buy more PDI before year end. R48 |
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Dec 14, 2021 21:40:06 GMT
PDI is a multisector bond (also called strategic income) fund. It does have MBS but not primarily. As has been noted, it has been reorganized (by merging PCI and PKO in it) and is under tax-loss selling. Some thought that selling may subside this week, the post-merger week, but that is not what is happening. IMO, it gives people another chance to pickup PDI and I have some limit orders in place.
Ivascyn/Murata's mortgage CEF is PCM although M* also calls it multisector.
|
|
|
|
Post by xray on Dec 14, 2021 21:54:45 GMT
GuruFocus.com
Modern Capital Funds Trust Buys PIMCO High Income Fund, Advent Claymore Convt Security & ...
Tue, December 14, 2021, 10:38 AM
MXE
+0.96%
AVK
+2.56%
HFRO
+0.64%
HFRO-PA
-0.92%
SRV
-0.30%
KMF
-0.43%
BDJ
+0.51%
GAB
-0.29%
GAB-PH
+0.35%
GAB-PJ
+0.27%
GAB-PK
+0.09%
SEVN
-1.53%
HGLB
+2.59%
PVL
0.00%
NXDT
-2.15%
NXDT-PA
-1.38%
NML
-0.27%
PFN
-1.06%
BGY
-0.16%
PHK
-0.17%
Investment company Modern Capital Funds Trust (Current Portfolio) buys PIMCO High Income Fund, Advent Claymore Convt Security & Income Fund, NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust, Neuberger Berman MLP and Energy Income Fund Inc, PIMCO Income Strategy Fund II, sells Highland Income Fund, Gabelli Equity Trust Inc, The Cushing MLP & Infrastructure Total Return Fund, Seven Hills Realty Trust during the 3-months ended 2021Q3, according to the most recent filings of the investment company, Modern Capital Funds Trust. As of 2021Q3, Modern Capital Funds Trust owns 39 stocks with a total value of $5 million. These are the details of the buys and sells.
New Purchases: PHK, AVK, NXDT, NML, PFN, BDJ, IGR, AOD, KRP, VOC, SMM, EMD, BRW, NRGX, AWP, GHY, BBAR, BRFS, GGN, BSM, GER, FAX, DESP, FLBR, CEE, NRO, SWZ, TGS, NTG, EDD, SUPV
Added Positions: BGY, KMF, HGLB, PVL, MXE, TRMT
Sold Out: HFRO, GAB, SRV, SEVN
----------
Live Long and Prosper....
|
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Dec 14, 2021 22:53:36 GMT
Out of curiosity, if you were a bystander with a mere passing interest and no current investment in PDI, what would you consider an attractive entry point for a flutter? The chart doesnât look very appealing to me. Hi chang , As you know I'm not much of a chartist. I took a small amount ~ 6% of PF and allocated it to FI CEFs. I did so for the reason of increasing yield a year or more in the future. I'm letting them compound in the meantime. There are a lot of questions, more than answers, on PDI, but I consider the PIMCO gang to be pretty smart. To quote richardsok , I'm hopeful that this is year end drama. I've seen it before. I consider the current price attractive, certainly more than my initial purchase. We'll see... The most unappealing part of the chart is that in reality, it is only 4 days old. If one is interested in the equivalent of a recent IPO, Then the intraday 2 hr charts show that the shares are being accumulated rather than distributed. This is demonstrated for me by the Accumulation/Distribution tool on stockcharts. Additionally the 15 minute intraday chart shows that the heaviest selling today came over the N Y lunch hr. That frequently implies that it is the amatuers that are trading at that time, not the pros. The last 2 hrs of trading were up today. The current closing price appears to be a buying opportunity for a long term investor if the narrative about the merger is accurate. Traders do not need my advice. Fwiw; the line chart at CEF.com indicates that NAV has risen a little in the past 2 or 3 days while the price has gone down. |
|
|
|
Post by anitya on Dec 15, 2021 0:27:20 GMT
My guess is PCM, PTY, & PCN might see a little bit more price drop. Their premium now is higher than it was a year ago while the NAV is slightly lower.
PDI, PDO, PFN, & PFL may have less to drop than the other three but the other three, especially PCM and PCN, are probably better products.
But overall declining NAVs is not very inspiring; however, I am guessing tomorrowâs Fed meeting might improve marketâs mood. Leveraged products like these, because of their high yield, emerging markets, and other credit components, tend to fall during equity down drafts. The challenging fixed income market is an added friction for these we did not experience much before. Seems like the worse of all environments for these. I never felt this unwelcome to hold these.
P.S.: I reluctantly bought PDI and PDO today.
|
|
|
|
Post by chang on Dec 15, 2021 2:13:31 GMT
Itâs still trading at a 2.8% premium, so I donât get how people are calling it cheap. I have only ever bought CEFs at a deep discount. Iâll keep my eye on it, but the premium and chart are not screaming âbuy!â afaics.
|
|
|
|
Post by steadyeddy on Dec 15, 2021 3:16:08 GMT
--Stifel Initiates PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund With Hold Rating
BY MT Newswires â 1:32 PM ET 12/14/2021
01:32 PM EST, 12/14/2021 (MT Newswires)
|
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Dec 15, 2021 15:25:51 GMT
The very short term intraday chart for PDI indicates that there is a high probability that PDI reached a bottom at abt 2 pm yesterday. It will likely retest that bottom, but PDI does look like a hold. Fwiw.
EDIT; Oh well, next stop is at abt 23.85.
|
|
|
|
Post by anitya on Dec 15, 2021 20:13:02 GMT
With PCI and PKO issuing 19(a) notices yesterday for December, it seems a distribution cut for new PDI is almost certain. (I am pencilling in 2 cents.) Those two had nearly 4 months to converge their books to look like that of PDI if that is what PIMCO wanted. While a potential distribution cut has been speculated for sometime now, I am not sure how much of that has already been priced in or if the market is not going to react as if a distribution cut is news / a surprise. My next buy may not be until Jan distribution is announced.
I already miss not having PCI and PKO around to arbitrage price and potential tax losses while staying invested in the strategy.
|
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Dec 16, 2021 17:14:34 GMT
The daily chart for PDI indicates it had a blow-off bottom yesterday. It is back above $25 and wants to move higher. Sometimes a little faith helps.
|
|
