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Gold
Jan 21, 2023 15:21:22 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Jan 21, 2023 15:21:22 GMT
Check out Barron's mention for gold (Up and Down Wall Street). It mentioned outperformance of gold/GLD since 10/12/22 SP500 low. It's much more so for GDX. It's the first time in 50 years. Could be a fluke, or not. LINKNot a fluke so far. I have my money on GDXU. Speaking of volatility, I nearly bailed out on wednesday, but thursday and friday made me a happy camper again. Leverage is not for everyone.
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Post by gman57 on Jan 21, 2023 18:15:41 GMT
Check out Barron's mention for gold (Up and Down Wall Street). It mentioned outperformance of gold/GLD since 10/12/22 SP500 low. It's much more so for GDX. It's the first time in 50 years. Could be a fluke, or not. LINKNot a fluke so far. I have my money on GDXU. Speaking of volatility, I nearly bailed out on wednesday, but thursday and friday made me a happy camper again. Leverage is not for everyone. Wow, I followed GDXU since you mentioned it. Talk about volatility. Yes, you are correct 3X leverage isn't for everybody but it is enticing.
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Gold
Feb 3, 2023 12:06:13 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 3, 2023 12:06:13 GMT
Gold continues to trend up. Silver is beginning to catch up with gold. I just thought I would mention it even though there is no interest. The daily chart for the value of the USD has made the death cross that confirms the USD is in a bear market. Fwiw the Death Cross is a term applied to thw 50/200 dema when the 50 crosses below the 200. I'm interested. Thanks for the update. I'm wondering if yesterday's big drop has any significance for the longer term trend. Thanks....
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Gold
Feb 6, 2023 0:00:39 GMT
Post by yogibearbull on Feb 6, 2023 0:00:39 GMT
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Gold
Feb 6, 2023 1:12:23 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Feb 6, 2023 1:12:23 GMT
I'm interested. Thanks for the update. I'm wondering if yesterday's big drop has any significance for the longer term trend. Thanks.... The long term trend is probably up but I expect a correction that could last months. Consequently I am out of gold and silver for now.
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Deleted
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Gold
Feb 6, 2023 9:10:36 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2023 9:10:36 GMT
I'm wondering if yesterday's big drop has any significance for the longer term trend. Thanks.... The long term trend is probably up but I expect a correction that could last months. Consequently I am out of gold and silver for now. Todays gold futures seem to be getting a Chinese balloon boost. I'm a little short of my 5% gold insurance policy so I may use last weeks selloff to buy. Grateful for the reply, uncleharly.
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Gold
Feb 9, 2023 17:51:56 GMT
Post by chang on Feb 9, 2023 17:51:56 GMT
On today's little dip, bought BBDC opening position in the IRA. Am not finding any solid technicals I like anywhere. BBDC is for the income alone. Longer term -- after the SOTU speech, I conclude further mass entitlement & dollar erosion is inevitable. Cannot see what events might realistically unfold to alter that conviction. Longer term, I'm having foggy thoughts about good dividend paying commodity producers operating in politically stable countries. Possibly CNQ, MHGVY? Gold Miners in Canada? Copied this here from the BSW thread. Just FYI uncleharley richardsok , a couple of decent foreign funds that are value/dividend focused -- EuroPac's EPVIX and EPDIX -- have some gold miners in their top 10 holdings. I seem to recall Barrick and Yamana ... sorry I'm not able to provide detailed links right now. Pls check if interested. Not a recommendation by any means, just an observation. Both are 5* funds by M*. They're on my list of funds to check for stock ideas.
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Gold
Feb 10, 2023 2:59:35 GMT
chang likes this
Post by uncleharley on Feb 10, 2023 2:59:35 GMT
Copied this here from the BSW thread. Just FYI uncleharley richardsok , a couple of decent foreign funds that are value/dividend focused -- EuroPac's EPVIX and EPDIX -- have some gold miners in their top 10 holdings. I seem to recall Barrick and Yamana ... sorry I'm not able to provide detailed links right now. Pls check if interested. Not a recommendation by any means, just an observation. Both are 5* funds by M*. They're on my list of funds to check for stock ideas. Thank You for the tips. They are likely very good candidates for most portfolios, but I have been focusing on CEFs, ETFs, & a couple of BDCs for my port.
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Gold
Mar 4, 2023 15:15:19 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Mar 4, 2023 15:15:19 GMT
The USD is consolidating its gains at the 200 DEMA line, while gold, silver, & gold miners are approaching a bullish MACD crossover. Silver miners are moving on up from a bullish MACD crossover. It seems to be odd that no one is talking about them. Wish I had some money.
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Gold
Mar 5, 2023 3:53:38 GMT
Post by retiredat48 on Mar 5, 2023 3:53:38 GMT
The USD is consolidating its gains at the 200 DEMA line, while gold, silver, & gold miners are approaching a bullish MACD crossover. Silver miners are moving on up from a bullish MACD crossover. It seems to be odd that no one is talking about them. Wish I had some money. Easy to see this...like, SLV silver has crossover and MA support. Ditto GDX gold miners. I may add to it. Good luck R48
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Gold
Mar 5, 2023 13:35:55 GMT
Post by yogibearbull on Mar 5, 2023 13:35:55 GMT
Gold volatility ("VIX" for ETF GLD; see the bottom panel) is unusually low at 13.93. That is far below the volatility of stocks (18.49 for SP500). So, there isn't any geopolitical premium in gold/GLD. It recently peaked at 33.77 in March 2022 on PUTIN's misadventures, and before that, at 54.37 in March 2020 on COVID shock. Volatility data would be much higher for GDX, probably 4x the above figures for GLD. TA for GDX also look favorable (golden-cross; rising RSI, etc). The 200-dMA slope is still slightly negative but that may become positive on further bounce (actually, if doesn't collapse). stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12282815654
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Gold
Mar 13, 2023 12:19:22 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Mar 13, 2023 12:19:22 GMT
There goes the dollar. Here comes the gold.
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 18, 2023 15:09:41 GMT
The weekly chart for the continuous contract of the price of gold indicates that the price of gold is back on track to set a new high in a few trading days or perhaps a couple of weeks. The new high would represent a break above the neckline of a cup w handle pattern which has been developing for the past 43 yrs or so. The anticipated break above that neckline projects a rise in the price of gold to about $3750 in a decade or so. I am sure that the projected rise in the price of gold will be accompanied by a significant decline in the value of the USD. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&b=2&g=0&id=p80031015165&a=427277745&listNum=86I couldn't make the post work for the very long term chart.
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Post by retiredat48 on Mar 18, 2023 15:39:12 GMT
uncleharley ,..Thanks. BTW I'm glad you "liked" your own post. I like most, but not all, of mine too R48
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 24, 2023 12:26:46 GMT
Gold has $85 to go before setting a 3 year high. The futures market is indicating the new high will become reality soon, Like perhaps today. A break above that high will signal a bull run $4000.00 or so.
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Gold
Mar 24, 2023 15:58:22 GMT
Post by retiredat48 on Mar 24, 2023 15:58:22 GMT
Gold has $85 to go before setting a 3 year high. The futures market is indicating the new high will become reality soon, Like perhaps today. A break above that high will signal a bull run $4000.00 or so. uncleharley ,....I'm counting on you to let me know when to sell my "speculative purchase" of GDX! R48
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 24, 2023 16:45:44 GMT
Gold has $85 to go before setting a 3 year high. The futures market is indicating the new high will become reality soon, Like perhaps today. A break above that high will signal a bull run $4000.00 or so. uncleharley ,....I'm counting on you to let me know when to sell my "speculative purchase" of GDX! R48 Right now that looks like a year or two. The buck is weak and will become weaker as interest rates unwind. As the dollar declines, gold will rise and the miners will rise more. Do not expect a smooth ride, but the ride will be up.
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Gold
Mar 25, 2023 0:15:36 GMT
via mobile
Post by Chahta on Mar 25, 2023 0:15:36 GMT
Gold has $85 to go before setting a 3 year high. The futures market is indicating the new high will become reality soon, Like perhaps today. A break above that high will signal a bull run $4000.00 or so. I might sell my Krugerrands if it goes that high.
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Gold
Mar 25, 2023 2:41:47 GMT
Post by richardsok on Mar 25, 2023 2:41:47 GMT
uncleharley ,....I'm counting on you to let me know when to sell my "speculative purchase" of GDX! R48 Right now that looks like a year or two. The buck is weak and will become weaker as interest rates unwind. As the dollar declines, gold will rise and the miners will rise more. Do not expect a smooth ride, but the ride will be up. I always admire your confidence.
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 25, 2023 17:00:31 GMT
Right now that looks like a year or two. The buck is weak and will become weaker as interest rates unwind. As the dollar declines, gold will rise and the miners will rise more. Do not expect a smooth ride, but the ride will be up. I always admire your confidence. Thank You M'Lord. Barrons even made an honorable mention and comment in their most recent issue with a sentence or 2 about the Central Banks diversifying their holdings away from the USD and into Gold. This movement has been going on for a couple of decades and is now getting some mainstream attention. Current economic conditions seem to be accelerating the move or accelerating the effects of the move. Namely a cheaper Buck and higher priced gold. FWIW, the high volume, breakout from the Cup w Handle pattern on the weekly chart for Gold projects a rise in the price of gold to 2350 or so.
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Gold
Mar 29, 2023 20:44:47 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Mar 29, 2023 20:44:47 GMT
Gold made a decisive move up from its breakout today. This was done despite the USD also moving up against a basket of major currencies. We should be seeing 40+ yr highs in a couple weeks or perhaps a month or maybe sooner.
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Gold
Mar 29, 2023 21:02:37 GMT
Post by newtecher on Mar 29, 2023 21:02:37 GMT
Gold made a decisive move up from its breakout today. This was done despite the USD also moving up against a basket of major currencies. We should be seeing 40+ yr highs in a couple weeks or perhaps a month or maybe sooner. What does "decisive move up from its breakout today" mean? When I look at gold's spot price today, it treaded water and closed 0.4% lower than yesterday. The resistance is still there at $2020 per troy ounce.
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Post by uncleharley on Mar 29, 2023 22:11:59 GMT
Gold made a decisive move up from its breakout today. This was done despite the USD also moving up against a basket of major currencies. We should be seeing 40+ yr highs in a couple weeks or perhaps a month or maybe sooner. What does "decisive move up from its breakout today" mean? When I look at gold's spot price today, it treaded water and closed 0.4% lower than yesterday. The resistance is still there at $2020 per troy ounce. That's a fair question. The URL below will take you to my daily price & volume chart for gold. I have redrawn it in a hurry so it is poorly labeled, however it shows a cup with handle pattern which has been forming for a year or so. Today it had a .56% move up which brought it above the neckline of the pattern after a test of that neckline break-out. The projected move up is based on the depth of the cup which is 350 points. That will take it to new 40+ yrs highs. Yes there will be pauses along the way, however my personal expectation is that now that the move has begun it should move fairly fast. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p74444607356&a=414745197&listNum=86
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Gold
Mar 30, 2023 2:11:59 GMT
Post by newtecher on Mar 30, 2023 2:11:59 GMT
What does "decisive move up from its breakout today" mean? When I look at gold's spot price today, it treaded water and closed 0.4% lower than yesterday. The resistance is still there at $2020 per troy ounce. That's a fair question. The URL below will take you to my daily price & volume chart for gold. I have redrawn it in a hurry so it is poorly labeled, however it shows a cup with handle pattern which has been forming for a year or so. Today it had a .56% move up which brought it above the neckline of the pattern after a test of that neckline break-out. The projected move up is based on the depth of the cup which is 350 points. That will take it to new 40+ yrs highs. Yes there will be pauses along the way, however my personal expectation is that now that the move has begun it should move fairly fast. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p74444607356&a=414745197&listNum=86Thank you for explaining! That is a clear testable prediction. We shall see!
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Gold
Apr 2, 2023 20:00:37 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Apr 2, 2023 20:00:37 GMT
The price of Gold is approaching all time highs as of the closing friday. The gold miners as represented by GDX have about a 40 to 45% gain to accomplish before they reach all time highs. The divergence may very well be closed by gold going down, but I see no sign that will happen. The current high for GDX was $44. The current price is $32.35.
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Post by richardsok on Apr 2, 2023 20:23:51 GMT
The price of Gold is approaching all time highs as of the closing friday. The gold miners as represented by GDX have about a 40 to 45% gain to accomplish before they reach all time highs. The divergence may very well be closed by gold going down, but I see no sign that will happen. The current high for GDX was $44. The current price is $32.35. Uh-huh. The miners' glory years were around 2011 but 2020-21 was good too (though I feel we have better reason for highs now than back then). Long way to go, but if the metal keeps inching up, the diggers could suddenly go turbo again. Animal spirits and all that. IMO.
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Gold
Apr 4, 2023 15:35:33 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Apr 4, 2023 15:35:33 GMT
Someone opened the gate and the animals are out. GLD has jumped to a 12 month high this morning with silver and the miners doing likewise. It is unclear what has triggered this breakout, but it does look real. GDX has now reached an 11 month high. Lets see if it breaks the yearly before the close.
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Post by uncleharley on Apr 7, 2023 12:48:26 GMT
The breakout has been sustained. Gold should move to $4200 per ounce before finding any resistance. Bloomberg has an article this morning the forecasts further drops in the value of the USD. They are quoting an Italian forecastor who says the USD will lose another 5%. I think he is being too conservative, but it will drop 5% before it makes 10%.
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Gold
Apr 7, 2023 13:15:36 GMT
Post by richardsok on Apr 7, 2023 13:15:36 GMT
The breakout has been sustained. Gold should move to $4200 per ounce before finding any resistance. Bloomberg has an article this morning the forecasts further drops in the value of the USD. They are quoting an Italian forecastor who says the USD will lose another 5%. I think he is being too conservative, but it will drop 5% before it makes 10%. That's one heckuva call, harley. Makes one feel giddy (always a bad sign!) until you reflect on the broader commodity market/inflationary implications. Like you, I hold a lot of golds -- but I hope you're wrong.
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Gold
Apr 7, 2023 13:38:39 GMT
Post by newtecher on Apr 7, 2023 13:38:39 GMT
That's one heckuva call, harley. Makes one feel giddy (always a bad sign!) until you reflect on the broader commodity market/inflationary implications. Like you, I hold a lot of golds -- but I hope you're wrong. What implications would it have on commodities or inflation? Gold is speculative asset, with very little grounding in industrial and consumer use fundamentals. Last time gold really ran up (2008-2011), other commodities did not (adjusting for the GFC lows) and the inflation was pretty low. Disclaimer: I do not own any gold and probably never will but it fun to watch.
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