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Gold
Nov 6, 2022 14:02:29 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Nov 6, 2022 14:02:29 GMT
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Post by yogibearbull on Nov 6, 2022 14:28:54 GMT
Central banks are accumulating gold. It may be just for diversification or for lessening dollar dependence. From Twitter.
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Gold
Nov 6, 2022 19:59:13 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Nov 6, 2022 19:59:13 GMT
The MACD indicator for the weekly USD chart made a bearish crossover this past week. It made a similar crossover on the daily chart a month ago. Apparently we have a bearish trend in the USD and a bullish trend in the metals. In precious metals, silver looks much stronger than gold.
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Gold
Nov 6, 2022 20:13:46 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Nov 6, 2022 20:13:46 GMT
Central Banks accumulating Gold in an effort to diversify their holdings has been going on for at least a decade. The sudden surge is interesting, but there is no explanation unless they expect the USD to drop in value. Since the USD is near record highs, that expectation would be normal. However I have no explanation or assumption to make about why silver is suddenly outperforming gold by a considerable margin. It looks like more than just noise on the chart.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 6, 2022 21:19:01 GMT
Central Banks accumulating Gold in an effort to diversify their holdings has been going on for at least a decade. The sudden surge is interesting, but there is no explanation unless they expect the USD to drop in value. Since the USD is near record highs, that expectation would be normal. However I have no explanation or assumption to make about why silver is suddenly outperforming gold by a considerable margin. It looks like more than just noise on the chart. An August CME article reports that the price of silver correlates (about .38) with industrial production in China, while gold is used worldwide mainly for investments and jewelry. There had been speculation that Covid restrictions in China were being lifted so production would increase. But the latest I read was that Covid remains a problem and restrictions continue.
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Gold
Nov 6, 2022 21:53:47 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Nov 6, 2022 21:53:47 GMT
Central Banks accumulating Gold in an effort to diversify their holdings has been going on for at least a decade. The sudden surge is interesting, but there is no explanation unless they expect the USD to drop in value. Since the USD is near record highs, that expectation would be normal. However I have no explanation or assumption to make about why silver is suddenly outperforming gold by a considerable margin. It looks like more than just noise on the chart. An August CME article reports that the price of silver correlates (about .38) with industrial production in China, while gold is used worldwide mainly for investments and jewelry. There had been speculation that Covid restrictions in China were being lifted so production would increase. But the latest I read was that Covid remains a problem and restrictions continue. So it would follow that if increased industrial production in China is pushing up the price of Silver, that increased production is probably also pushing up the price of Aluminum, Copper, & Zinc which have also had a surge in price. Covid is less of a problem now in China than it was. The last reports I saw indicated the Chinese were lifting many restrictions. Added by edit; The following URL takes you to a report by the U S Strategic Command Chief. Among other things in the report, the Chinese have been rapidly building High End military equipment including Ballistic Missiles, Drones, & other equipment that require large amounts of Silver, Aluminum, Copper, & Zinc. www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/extremely-ominous-warning-about-china-from-us-strategic-command-chief/ar-AA13NhLr?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c25f9312d81847be8fcb03ea887f7bcb
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 6, 2022 23:18:47 GMT
An August CME article reports that the price of silver correlates (about .38) with industrial production in China, while gold is used worldwide mainly for investments and jewelry. There had been speculation that Covid restrictions in China were being lifted so production would increase. But the latest I read was that Covid remains a problem and restrictions continue. So it would follow that if increased industrial production in China is pushing up the price of Silver, that increased production is probably also pushing up the price of Aluminum, Copper, & Zinc which have also had a surge in price. Covid is less of a problem now in China than it was. The last reports I saw indicated the Chinese were lifting many restrictions. Added by edit; The following URL takes you to a report by the U S Strategic Command Chief. Among other things in the report, the Chinese have been rapidly building High End military equipment including Ballistic Missiles, Drones, & other equipment that require large amounts of Silver, Aluminum, Copper, & Zinc. www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/extremely-ominous-warning-about-china-from-us-strategic-command-chief/ar-AA13NhLr?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c25f9312d81847be8fcb03ea887f7bcbToday Sun. 10-6-22 CNBC reports, "China Posts 6-month High Covide Count as It Sticks with Strategy." You may be right about what their military production will lead to.
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Gold
Nov 8, 2022 17:31:09 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Nov 8, 2022 17:31:09 GMT
Apparently the rise in the prices of the metals can be attributed to the decline in the value of the USD. UUP has dropped thru recent support and appears to be headed for a measurable correction. That leaves the question of why aren't ag commodities also rising. Meanwhile I am enjoying the ride on silver and gold miners. DBB is also doing well.
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Gold
Nov 11, 2022 17:10:12 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Nov 11, 2022 17:10:12 GMT
The USD continues to drop thru support with little chart support left. Precious metals are not keeping pace with the USD and appear to be at least a short term buy at this point. DBB continues to do well also. Ag commodities are consolidating in price.
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Gold
Nov 15, 2022 13:32:31 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Nov 15, 2022 13:32:31 GMT
Silver is holding above $22 per ounce in overnight trading. That is above a 50% FIBO retracement level and above the 600 EMA. It is also approaching an overbought signal, but it looks like a buy to me. If there is a retracement from current levels I will be buying the dip using leverage. Gold is holding above 1775 also. It has similar but slightly weaker technicals.
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Gold
Dec 1, 2022 17:43:37 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2022 17:43:37 GMT
Silver is holding above $22 per ounce in overnight trading. That is above a 50% FIBO retracement level and above the 600 EMA. It is also approaching an overbought signal, but it looks like a buy to me. If there is a retracement from current levels I will be buying the dip using leverage. Gold is holding above 1775 also. It has similar but slightly weaker technicals. Has anything changed recently? I am positive on my GLDM position, but am not sure it is providing anything to my portfolio I'm not getting from non-$ hedged international ETFs, so am debating whether to buy, hold, or sell. I would appreciate if you could share what your charts are telling you. Thank you in advance, Uncleharley.
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Gold
Dec 1, 2022 20:11:18 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Dec 1, 2022 20:11:18 GMT
Silver is holding above $22 per ounce in overnight trading. That is above a 50% FIBO retracement level and above the 600 EMA. It is also approaching an overbought signal, but it looks like a buy to me. If there is a retracement from current levels I will be buying the dip using leverage. Gold is holding above 1775 also. It has similar but slightly weaker technicals. Has anything changed recently? I am positive on my GLDM position, but am not sure it is providing anything to my portfolio I'm not getting from non-$ hedged international ETFs, so am debating whether to buy, hold, or sell. I would appreciate if you could share what your charts are telling you. Thank you in advance, Uncleharley. The XAU daily chart indicates a significant break above resistance yesterday that has been sustained today. The pattern projects a 25 to 30% rise over the short to intermediate term. The driving force is the dropping value of the USD. The USD has already dropped enough recently to justify a significant rise in the price of precious and other metals as well as their miners. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XAU&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p54781657400&a=416969089&listNum=86
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Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2022 21:54:19 GMT
Along with gold, international has made significant gains - again likely due to the $. The volatility on my 3 gold related dividend stocks has been amazing and I continue to reinvest dividends. About 1.5% of portfolio. AEM, GOLD, NEM.
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Gold
Dec 2, 2022 11:56:40 GMT
Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2022 11:56:40 GMT
uncleharley, @sara I think I'll stick with GLDM afterall. Although I didn't own it at the time, it did provide diversification beyond international stocks when geo-political risk rose in Feb. 2022, and although correlation has been strong recently, it weakens longer term. Thanks again.
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Gold
Dec 11, 2022 18:03:14 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Dec 11, 2022 18:03:14 GMT
FWIW; XAU and the USD are still on trend.
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Gold
Dec 13, 2022 19:57:03 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Dec 13, 2022 19:57:03 GMT
Both SLV and GLD gapped up above resistance at the open this morning and are continuing to move up. Their daily charts are projecting a run up of 5% to possibly 10% over the short term.
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Post by richardsok on Dec 14, 2022 14:55:06 GMT
Took gains on my remaining MMT. Big position, once.
Pimco CEFs absorbed their big XD body blow this morning; fully expected of course, yet still a jolt to see. Right now the plunge seems to be almost dollar-for-dollar equal to the anticipated Dec 22 payouts. Am watching closely to see if the emotional money sells deeper today; if so, I will be a buyer.
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Gold
Dec 14, 2022 16:00:02 GMT
Post by retiredat48 on Dec 14, 2022 16:00:02 GMT
Took gains on my remaining MMT. Big position, once. Pimco CEFs absorbed their big XD body blow this morning; fully expected of course, yet still a jolt to see. Right now the plunge seems to be almost dollar-for-dollar equal to the anticipated Dec 22 payouts. Am watching closely to see if the emotional money sells deeper today; if so, I will be a buyer. poster drs at fido: Ended up buying PDI @ 19.80 on the open, which I think is a fair price. Leaving the special out for future yield, as I can't count on it (but realistically may well happen), ($0.2205 x 12)/19.80 = 13.36% Putting the special back (obviously just for illustrative purposes) in gets you ($0.2205 x 12 + 0.65)/19.80 = 16.6% PDO on open was 14.18 so ($0.1279x12)/14.18 = 10.82% . IF you assume the special remains the same for next year, which is a really big if, ($0.1279x12+0.96)/14.18 = 17.59% . One could argue that the purpose of the managed distribution policy for PDO is to ensure therre is a large year end special by accumulating UNII. But that's really a big assumption/conjecture. So, if you are banking on the large year end specials, PDO is the better/cheaper choice. If you go off of yields without the special, PDI is the clear winner. At its current dividend distribution and without including the special, PDO would have to drop to 13.50 to equal the yield of PAXS. ($0.1279x12)/13.50 = 11.36% . As for me, I like a bird in the hand over two in the bush, and with the two at very close premiums, I felt PDI was the better of the two this morning. I'm a bit surprised by the bid in PDO, but the day's not over. -----------------------------------------------------
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Gold
Dec 14, 2022 16:11:27 GMT
Post by richardsok on Dec 14, 2022 16:11:27 GMT
Agree 99%, r.
However, PDO's more conservative payout makes it a potential candidate for a disty increase ahead, unlike PDI, which is already more aggressively paying out.
Suppose, however 2023 is just a so-so year for Pimco. If current UNII accrual rates are cut in half, PDO is still apt to pay out at least SOME special dist, while PDI may pay out none.
Or if 2023 is a poor year, PDI may even CUT its dists (a DISASTER for the fund's price!) while PDO may not have to....though it would probably slip somewhat in sympathy.
I conclude PDO is the more conservative of the two funds that will probably equalize payouts when the smoke clears 12 months ahead.... if not sooner.
(I hold them both; very large allocations, but PDO is larger.)
FWIW.
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Gold
Dec 14, 2022 18:37:12 GMT
Post by retiredat48 on Dec 14, 2022 18:37:12 GMT
My recollection is PDI has a much higher percentage in mortgage backed securities; PDO larger in corp junk bonds. AS such, PDI is "safer" as homeowners will not be defaulting on greatly increased home prices. And if they do default, foreclosures get back 100% of the mortgage. Not so if a corporate defaults/goes bankrupt.
I own both...
R48
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Gold
Dec 20, 2022 22:23:58 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Dec 20, 2022 22:23:58 GMT
Precious metals got a nice boost today from safehaven buyers escaping some of the volatility in the Forex markets. The Japanese bumped their short term interest rates up .25% in a surprise move last night. This caused some covering of the Yen carry trade which put pressure on the USD and in turn boosted the precious metals. I would expect more of these unexpected bumps until inflation has been brought under control globally.
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Post by yogibearbull on Jan 8, 2023 15:57:45 GMT
Gold volatility GVZ has collapsed as physical gold and gold-miners have moved up quietly. Remember, when gold is near highs or lows, its volatility will jump sharply. It has been in the news that many global central banks have been accumulating gold for diversifying their reserves. GVZ GOLD GDX
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Gold
Jan 8, 2023 16:38:47 GMT
Post by gman57 on Jan 8, 2023 16:38:47 GMT
Gold volatility GVZ has collapsed as physical gold and gold-miners have moved up quietly. Remember, when gold is near highs or lows, its volatility will jump sharply. It has been in the news that many global central banks have been accumulating gold for diversifying their reserves. GVZ GOLD GDXQuietly? That's all everyone is talking about recently. Gold, gold, gold gold.... I guess it's a buy until.... well, let me know when you see it on the cover of Time, Forbes or the Economist.
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Post by uncleharley on Jan 10, 2023 20:16:42 GMT
Well, GLD has moved above resistance to a new recent high and the USD has dropped below support to a new recent low. One could reasonably say that a trend is in place. We are probably 2 or 3 months away from the cover of Time magazine.
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Gold
Jan 10, 2023 21:16:16 GMT
Post by richardsok on Jan 10, 2023 21:16:16 GMT
Well, GLD has moved above resistance to a new recent high and the USD has dropped below support to a new recent low. One could reasonably say that a trend is in place. We are probably 2 or 3 months away from the cover of Time magazine. Now that you mention it, I got my first confirmed buy signal back in Nov and, at the time, I seem not to have even noticed. Currently riding with GLDX and GNT, (not to mention a little hoard in the bank box with my daughter's name on it *thanks, R48*) but will probably increase exposure with something more direct. gman -- I haven't noticed excessive chatter about it.
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Gold
Jan 10, 2023 21:28:09 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Jan 10, 2023 21:28:09 GMT
Fwiw; The Gold Miners Bullish % moved up today indicating sentiment is positive. I have my ride on GDXU.
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Gold
Jan 20, 2023 13:09:42 GMT
Post by uncleharley on Jan 20, 2023 13:09:42 GMT
Gold continues to trend up. Silver is beginning to catch up with gold. I just thought I would mention it even though there is no interest. The daily chart for the value of the USD has made the death cross that confirms the USD is in a bear market. Fwiw the Death Cross is a term applied to thw 50/200 dema when the 50 crosses below the 200.
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Gold
Jan 20, 2023 14:00:15 GMT
Post by racqueteer on Jan 20, 2023 14:00:15 GMT
Gold continues to trend up. Silver is beginning to catch up with gold. I just thought I would mention it even though there is no interest. Not entirely true. I took a small position awhile back as the conditions seemed favorable.
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Gold
Jan 20, 2023 16:38:56 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Jan 20, 2023 16:38:56 GMT
Gold continues to trend up. Silver is beginning to catch up with gold. I just thought I would mention it even though there is no interest. The daily chart for the value of the USD has made the death cross that confirms the USD is in a bear market. Fwiw the Death Cross is a term applied to thw 50/200 dema when the 50 crosses below the 200. I'm interested. Thanks for the update.
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Gold
Jan 21, 2023 13:27:03 GMT
Post by yogibearbull on Jan 21, 2023 13:27:03 GMT
Check out Barron's mention for gold (Up and Down Wall Street). It mentioned outperformance of gold/GLD since 10/12/22 SP500 low. It's much more so for GDX. It's the first time in 50 years. Could be a fluke, or not. LINK
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