Post by liftlock on May 5, 2024 17:38:48 GMT
Barron's recently published an online article entitled "Retirees: Here’s How to Be Smart About Bonds:
www.barrons.com/articles/retirees-heres-how-to-be-smart-about-bonds-2f656768?mod=djem_b_retirement0505
I image this article is behind a paywall for non-subscribers. However, the following comment about the article by a Barron's subscriber named Larry Horwitz caught my eye:
"First, why should you be considering bonds? Mark Hulbert on MarketWatch monitors the eight historically best indicators of the total, inflation-adjusted, ten-year return of the SPX. The current average prediction of these eight indicators is a minus 2.9% annualized return below inflation. At the same time, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities have guaranteed real yields of almost 2% above inflation. So, it makes sense to have these as as least part of a portfolio, for guaranteed income with inflation protection. For a retiree, who is drawing from savings, a ladder of TIPS, with some maturing each year for income, is a way to hold the TIPS to maturity and thereby realize the high real yields that they offer."
I don't subscribe MarketWatch but I got curious about what "the eight historically best indicators" might be. I found a few articles from 2018 that suggests what they might be:
www.linkedin.com/pulse/8-measures-say-market-crash-coming-heres-how-time-lance-roberts
www.alphaglider.com/blog/2018/8/8/8-market-predictors
Earlier this week, Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity, was interviewed on Bloomberg Radio. He remains bullish on equities, because 2024 reported YTD earnings are up 12.3% over prior year. He estimates earnings will be up 9% through year end.
Jurrien reminded listeners that market volatility is the price investors pays for achieving higher investment returns.
www.barrons.com/articles/retirees-heres-how-to-be-smart-about-bonds-2f656768?mod=djem_b_retirement0505
I image this article is behind a paywall for non-subscribers. However, the following comment about the article by a Barron's subscriber named Larry Horwitz caught my eye:
"First, why should you be considering bonds? Mark Hulbert on MarketWatch monitors the eight historically best indicators of the total, inflation-adjusted, ten-year return of the SPX. The current average prediction of these eight indicators is a minus 2.9% annualized return below inflation. At the same time, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities have guaranteed real yields of almost 2% above inflation. So, it makes sense to have these as as least part of a portfolio, for guaranteed income with inflation protection. For a retiree, who is drawing from savings, a ladder of TIPS, with some maturing each year for income, is a way to hold the TIPS to maturity and thereby realize the high real yields that they offer."
I don't subscribe MarketWatch but I got curious about what "the eight historically best indicators" might be. I found a few articles from 2018 that suggests what they might be:
www.linkedin.com/pulse/8-measures-say-market-crash-coming-heres-how-time-lance-roberts
www.alphaglider.com/blog/2018/8/8/8-market-predictors
Earlier this week, Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity, was interviewed on Bloomberg Radio. He remains bullish on equities, because 2024 reported YTD earnings are up 12.3% over prior year. He estimates earnings will be up 9% through year end.
Jurrien reminded listeners that market volatility is the price investors pays for achieving higher investment returns.