|
Post by win1177 on Feb 5, 2024 14:56:08 GMT
I own a position in Newmont mining (NEM), just added last week at $34. I’m “underwater” on my overall position, and plan to sell some of my higher cost basis shares after a month.
How do others see Newmont as a holding? Buy, sell, hold?
Win
|
|
|
Post by richardsok on Feb 5, 2024 15:49:30 GMT
I own a position in Newmont mining (NEM), just added last week at $34. I’m “underwater” on my overall position, and plan to sell some of my higher cost basis shares after a month. How do others see Newmont as a holding? Buy, sell, hold? Win Darn good question. The spot price is over $2000/oz, yet NEM is losing a buck a share. There's THIS from Benzinga: "....Compare the two back from 2011; gold was at a previous record level of around $1,900. The GDX was at its pinnacle. Gold has moved on to peak above $2,150, while the GDX has more than halved in value.
The main answer as to why this has happened is the sharp rise in costs for miners. Oliver Gross, a mining investor and consultant, said in a post on X there had been a “massive increase in the cost of mining of the last 15 years.”
“Whether it is energy raw materials, lubricants, mining machinery, wages for miners and skilled workers, economic feasibility studies, permitting, exploration costs, etc. Most cost factors have increased tremendously.”
In percentage terms, the cost of producing gold has risen more than the price of gold in the past decade, putting pressure on profit margins.
Gross also points to “dilution” as the “creeping death” of many gold mining stocks in recent years as companies — striving to achieve growth — embarked on acquisitions, mergers and capital raises."
--------. What's interesting is that I'm seeing a projection of $2.00/sh earnings in 2024, but have not seen what the catalyst might be to swing NEM from losing to earning money. (IOW, with the little I know, it's hard to believe the projection.) Might be worth your while to dig for some news stories reporting on silver linings -- fact or fantasy. Technically, of course, NEM is a longer term disaster. Chart is a near-perfect sawtooth downward, repeating brief rallies followed by lower lows, over and again. Much too volatile. No reason to buy that I can see, EXCEPT it's now so dreadfully low. Tactically, if you can find a rational reason to believe in the stock, I might sell right here, with intent to re-purchase on March 6th in a taxable account. That's a thin reed, I know. I hate swallowing losses but detest false hope even more. Let us know if you learn anything.
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Feb 5, 2024 16:09:17 GMT
I follow gold-miner GDX, and NEM is its top holding. GDX has been lagging gold bullion, as seen in the ratio chart GDX:GLD. In such a ratio chart, rising trend means outperformance (of gold-miners), declining trend means underperformance. A panel at the bottom also shows NEM. Now NEM has variable dividend and that didn't seem to help. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3AGLD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p98113535162
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Feb 5, 2024 16:20:50 GMT
I see no technical reason on the daily or weekly chart for NEM to buy or hold it.
|
|
|
Post by retiredat48 on Feb 5, 2024 16:31:43 GMT
I own a position in Newmont mining (NEM), just added last week at $34. I’m “underwater” on my overall position, and plan to sell some of my higher cost basis shares after a month. How do others see Newmont as a holding? Buy, sell, hold? Win Darn good question. The spot price is over $2000/oz, yet NEM is losing a buck a share. There's THIS from Benzinga: "....Compare the two back from 2011; gold was at a previous record level of around $1,900. The GDX was at its pinnacle. Gold has moved on to peak above $2,150, while the GDX has more than halved in value.
The main answer as to why this has happened is the sharp rise in costs for miners. Oliver Gross, a mining investor and consultant, said in a post on X there had been a “massive increase in the cost of mining of the last 15 years.”
“Whether it is energy raw materials, lubricants, mining machinery, wages for miners and skilled workers, economic feasibility studies, permitting, exploration costs, etc. Most cost factors have increased tremendously.”
In percentage terms, the cost of producing gold has risen more than the price of gold in the past decade, putting pressure on profit margins.
Gross also points to “dilution” as the “creeping death” of many gold mining stocks in recent years as companies — striving to achieve growth — embarked on acquisitions, mergers and capital raises."
--------. What's interesting is that I'm seeing a projection of $2.00/sh earnings in 2024, but have not seen what the catalyst might be to swing NEM from losing to earning money. (IOW, with the little I know, it's hard to believe the projection.) Might be worth your while to dig for some news stories reporting on silver linings -- fact or fantasy. Technically, of course, NEM is a longer term disaster. Chart is a near-perfect sawtooth downward, repeating brief rallies followed by lower lows, over and again. Much too volatile. No reason to buy that I can see, EXCEPT it's now so dreadfully low. Tactically, if you can find a rational reason to believe in the stock, I might sell right here, with intent to re-purchase on March 6th in a taxable account. That's a thin reed, I know. I hate swallowing losses but detest false hope even more. Let us know if you learn anything. If one holds this to be 100% accurate, then is not the following logic also true: Since miners cannot produce profitably at current prices, then as they produce less and less, the commodity price of gold should go UP. Taken to extreme, no miners mining anything...then price of gold rises. It would at least rise until miners can operate in a profitable mode. Which says, own any gold by taking physical possession. Don't keep in an ETF or place where any government can seize it. Buy mini gold bars at COTSCO. I hear only on-line buying at Cotsco, but can likely trust the source. (I don't know the min oz size, or percent premium to gold). And if crypto ever collapses, then buy larger amounts of gold. R48
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Feb 5, 2024 17:30:51 GMT
|
|
|
Post by richardsok on Feb 5, 2024 20:04:24 GMT
You'll recall, R48, you and I discussed this a while back when I sold my Pennsylvania property and had to dig up the mayonnaise jars with gold (only my daughter and I knew where) and needed a place to store the metal safe from the Infernal Revenue Dept. Followed yr advice by taking a safe deposit box with my daughter as primary owner and me as secondary.
There are any number of good websites that sell PMs. I've done it several times without a hitch. The challenge is trying to buy as close to spot price as possible -- and be sure you're getting 99% pure gold. Several coins are 90% gold, or so, and I imagine they'd be complicated to sell in the future.
I'm thinking that silver is currently low compared to gold, making the former a better buy, IMO. But to get enough to "move the needle" we'd have to take out a larger deposit box.
|
|
|
Post by yakers on Feb 5, 2024 21:01:01 GMT
You'll recall, R48, you and I discussed this a while back when I sold my Pennsylvania property and had to dig up the mayonnaise jars with gold (only my daughter and I knew where) and needed a place to store the metal safe from the Infernal Revenue Dept. Followed yr advice by taking a safe deposit box with my daughter as primary owner and me as secondary. There are any number of good websites that sell PMs. I've done it several times without a hitch. The challenge is trying to buy as close to spot price as possible -- and be sure you're getting 99% pure gold. Several coins are 90% gold, or so, and I imagine they'd be complicated to sell in the future. I'm thinking that silver is currently low compared to gold, making the former a better buy, IMO. But to get enough to "move the needle" we'd have to take out a larger deposit box. Just tried to log in, can't get a price, item 'not avialable' for shipment or local pickup.
|
|
|
Post by chang on Feb 5, 2024 21:08:50 GMT
You'll recall, R48, you and I discussed this a while back when I sold my Pennsylvania property and had to dig up the mayonnaise jars with gold (only my daughter and I knew where) and needed a place to store the metal safe from the Infernal Revenue Dept. Followed yr advice by taking a safe deposit box with my daughter as primary owner and me as secondary. There are any number of good websites that sell PMs. I've done it several times without a hitch. The challenge is trying to buy as close to spot price as possible -- and be sure you're getting 99% pure gold. Several coins are 90% gold, or so, and I imagine they'd be complicated to sell in the future. I'm thinking that silver is currently low compared to gold, making the former a better buy, IMO. But to get enough to "move the needle" we'd have to take out a larger deposit box. I don't think gold content/fineness is correlated to liquidity or premiums/spreads. Krugerrands are 22 kt (91.67% fine) and probably the most liquid gold bullion coin in the market. US Eagles, Canadian Maple Leafs, BRitish Soveriegns, and Chinese Pandas are .999 fine, I think, and similarly liquid and in demand. Other coins, less well known, are probably less liquid and have larger spreads.
|
|
|
Post by retiredat48 on Feb 5, 2024 23:58:30 GMT
I identified cotsco for those who wanted a smaller, easier gold ownership methods. Was not aware of a two bar ounce limit. This means an investor with a $100,000 portfolio could have a 4% allocation in physical gold, buying 2 ounces/ bars at Cotsco.
R48
|
|
kent
Ensign
Posts: 44
|
Post by kent on Feb 6, 2024 1:45:54 GMT
I tried buying this gold and it states not available in FL for my zip code. !!
|
|
|
Post by archer on Feb 6, 2024 3:07:44 GMT
How easy is it to buy a gold at spot?
My father was really into the precious metals back in the aughts. When he died I contacted some of the businesses where he brought proof coins. I made more from them selling them at spot to a local shop. This was not only proof coins but also old circulated coins and bullion, as well as silverware. I might have done better on ebay, but I didn't want to get into a lot of work liquidating it. His precious metals funds did well at the time, but the physical metal would didn't do as well as cash. I like old coins though :-)
|
|
|
Post by anovice on Feb 6, 2024 9:42:49 GMT
What is the benefit of owning a 1 oz Gold Bar PAMP Suisse Lady Fortuna Veriscan (New In Assay) instead of a Krugerrand or Canadian Maple Leaf?
|
|
|
Post by steelpony10 on Feb 6, 2024 11:44:37 GMT
win1177 , I imagine with your portfolio you hold a substantial position? What was the reason for the investment, where did it fit in? A legacy holding like our equity holdings? Our gold is held as medium roast instant coffee for traveling called “pure gold” by Douwe Egbert available online which comes in convenient packaging of small flavor straws holding freeze dried not ground? particles. It adds value to a lifestyle. I say dump it unless it’s part of the solution to your investment puzzle. If it doesn’t fit ……
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Feb 6, 2024 11:51:52 GMT
kent, I don't think that Costco maintains a waiting list for gold biscuit/bar. What may have started as a fun or novelty item became quite popular and when Costco gets new batch from its supplier, it loads it on the website and the entire supply is gone in a few hours. This is then repeated. anovice, gold coins have 22-24 karats. South African Krugerrand may be better known, but also became controversial; it has 22k, but 1 oz Krugerrand has 1 oz of gold, so its actual weight is a bit higher. Pure 24k coins (Canadian Maple Leaf, etc) have the same weight as their gold content. Their premiums over spot gold price vary according to their popularity and condition, and gold coin premiums may be slightly higher vs gold biscuits/bars (e.g. Costco Biscuit/Bar). For lots of gold info, see ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1342/thread
|
|
|
Post by richardsok on Feb 6, 2024 15:03:19 GMT
What is the benefit of owning a 1 oz Gold Bar PAMP Suisse Lady Fortuna Veriscan (New In Assay) instead of a Krugerrand or Canadian Maple Leaf? The Fortuna bar has a lovely image; to my eye, almost beautiful. I have seen them used successfully as part of a necklace design. The Krug has old, ugly geo-political associations which are evidently returning and the M Leaf design is just *meh*
|
|
|
Post by chang on Feb 6, 2024 15:44:36 GMT
What is the benefit of owning a 1 oz Gold Bar PAMP Suisse Lady Fortuna Veriscan (New In Assay) instead of a Krugerrand or Canadian Maple Leaf? The Fortuna bar has a lovely image; to my eye, almost beautiful. I have seen them used successfully as part of a necklace design. The Krug has old, ugly geo-political associations which are evidently returning and the M Leaf design is just *meh* If it's esthetics you're after, you cannot touch the US buffalo gold. Very slightly premium relative to other bullion coins, more or less insignificant. These are simply gorgeous. catalog.usmint.gov/coins/coin-programs/american-buffalo-coins/
|
|
|
Post by richardsok on Feb 6, 2024 17:17:28 GMT
|
|
|
Post by win1177 on Feb 6, 2024 18:13:46 GMT
I’ve decided to sell my entire position in Newmont mining (NEM). I started buying over a year ago, have a loss in the position which I’ll use to offset gains elsewhere. This is the second time I’ve lost money in gold/PM, hopefully I’ll learn from this!
Win
|
|
|
Post by retiredat48 on Feb 6, 2024 18:16:56 GMT
I like Susan B Anthony coins. You get two birds:
an American Eagle on one side; an old buzzard on the other side.
R48
oops...sorry ladies/lighten up
|
|
|
Post by Norbert on Feb 7, 2024 7:08:15 GMT
I wonder if the science to produce synthetic gold will mature in the near term. Research is ongoing.
If there's a whiff of success, that could kill the price of gold. So, I hesitate to own gold, aside from sentimental reasons.
|
|
|
Post by anovice on Feb 7, 2024 9:42:06 GMT
I wonder if the science to produce synthetic gold will mature in the near term. Research is ongoing. If there's a whiff of success, that could kill the price of gold. So, I hesitate to own gold, aside from sentimental reasons. Norbert, nice to see your post. Please do more often.
|
|
|
Post by Chahta on Feb 7, 2024 13:22:18 GMT
I wonder if the science to produce synthetic gold will mature in the near term. Research is ongoing. If there's a whiff of success, that could kill the price of gold. So, I hesitate to own gold, aside from sentimental reasons. Doubt it will affect the real thing. Synthetic diamonds don't fetch remotely what real ones do.
|
|
|
Post by chang on Feb 7, 2024 14:47:39 GMT
I wonder if the science to produce synthetic gold will mature in the near term. Research is ongoing. If there's a whiff of success, that could kill the price of gold. So, I hesitate to own gold, aside from sentimental reasons. There seem to be efforts to produce different crystalline structures of gold, which can produce either an enhanced appearance or durability (strange, since natural gold is pretty nice looking already, as well as highly inert and resistant to corrosion). However, this is simply a rearrangement of gold atoms, not a synthesis.It is almost certainly not possible to "make gold", i.e., to convert another atomic element into gold. Gold has only one stable isotope (Au-197) and it does not lie at the end of any natural decay chain. (It is possible to produce other isotopes of gold via neutron absorption, but these are unstable and decay further into other elements).
|
|
|
Post by win1177 on Feb 23, 2024 1:25:15 GMT
Question for everyone. Newmont mining sold off today, curious as to why? I could not find any major news story to explain a selloff of -7.6%, to a yearly low of $30.89 per share. Am I missing something here? Thanks in advance!
Win
|
|
|
Post by win1177 on Feb 23, 2024 1:28:22 GMT
Found out that the company is cutting its dividend, as well as announced some asset sales to "maximize profits". I'm going to re-evaluate the holding, may cut my losses here.
Win
|
|
|
Post by liftlock on Feb 23, 2024 3:23:04 GMT
NEM has does not score well on Validea.com. 26 out of 100. It trades at 33x cash flow and fundamental momentum scores are in the bottom 24% of stocks.
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Feb 23, 2024 8:35:32 GMT
NEM has variable dividend, basic 25c/shr + variable 40-60% of cash flow with some other triggers. So, it seems that the variable part now will be 0. Not a dividend cut in regular sense. But it will continue buybacks. After the earnings miss, it will focus on Tier 1/core mining properties. My gold exposure is via GDX & GDXJ. Top holdings of GDX are NEM, ABX.canada (same as GOLD), etc. Gold-miners have been lagging gold-bullion, so the volatility is making the down move worse. Charts NEM & GDX stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NEM&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p95773998044
|
|
|
Post by chang on Feb 23, 2024 12:20:16 GMT
Not-so-hot analysis on Fido:
Valuation 44 (0-overvalued, 100-undervalued) Quality 73 (0-low, 100-high) Growth stability 59 ( " ) Financial Health 74 ( " )
Analyst Ratings - average 4.2 "Neutral"
|
|
|
Post by mnfish on Feb 23, 2024 12:39:36 GMT
win1177 , "Question for everyone. Newmont mining sold off today, curious as to why?" From the Q4 - 2023 earnings report FY 2023 FY2022 Average realized gold price ($ per ounce) $1,954 $1,792 Gold went up 9% Gold all-in sustaining costs (AISC) ($ per ounce) $1,444 $1,211 Costs went up 19% GAAP attributable net (loss) income ($m) $(2,501) $(459) Ouch!
|
|