cutrate confusion

[catdog]

I am confused when I hear statements on this years possible fed cuts.  When people are predicting four cuts or six cuts, do they mean four or six cuts in increments of .25%
or could some of the individual cuts exceed .25%?

Thanks for any responses Catdog

[uncleharley]

I am pretty sure that different posters mean different things with the same or similar statements.

[yogibearbull]

+/- 25 bps moves have recently been typical for the Fed, although historically, there have been larger moves. CME FedWatch assumed 25-bps moves or equivalent (so 50-bps move is 2 25-bps moves).
www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

[Deleted]

From what I heard market is expecting 3 rate cuts of 0.25 each. More cuts may happen if we get in recession.

Experts are bit wary of predicting recession now after being 100% wrong for over 3 years now.

[steelpony10]

catdog , @waffle2 ,

      I’ve never seen this stuff end without layoffs after consumers stop spending which is who knows when.

      I’ve never seen a soft landing either so I lean towards at least a mild recession.

      Cuts usually are proportional to the Feds read on economic conditions down the road say 9 months.

      Everything is a best guess dealing with an unknown pretty much unless you get an actual catastrophe like Covid.

      In relation to investing DCA covers this up since market timing doesn’t work as well long term. 

       

[johntaylor]

Thus spake sage Janet:

"WASHINGTON, Jan 5 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Friday that a 'soft landing' in the U.S. economy was now underway..."

[steelpony10]

johntaylor ,

    Ha. Ha. I’d like to know the indicators that show that. As I mentioned it would be my first and probably last one.

[Chahta]

Jan 16, 2024 18:23:23 GMT steelpony10 said:

catdog , @waffle2 ,

      I’ve never seen this stuff end without layoffs after consumers stop spending which is who knows when.

      I’ve never seen a soft landing either so I lean towards at leas towards a mild recession.

      Cuts usually are proportional to the Feds read on economic conditions down the road say 9 months.

      Everything is a best guess dealing with an unknown pretty much unless you get an actual catastrophe like Covid.

      In relation to investing DCA covers this up since market timing doesn’t work as well long term. 

       

Yup, waiting for the last shoe (recession) to drop.

I can hardly wait for Janet to fall flat on her face about July 4th. Afterall, she is the one that called inflation "transitory". LOL

[FD1000]

I'm not confused because I just know that nobody knows the future, so I don't invest based on it.

[habsui]

I invest based on what I know about the future, hence I am always ahead of myself..