Your best buys in the last year or so

[kathiel]

What have you bought in the last year or so that has really outperformed?

As we come to the end of the year, I'd be interested in what people have bought that has done exceptionally well.  Tell us about it.

[win1177]

Dec 27, 2023 1:59:29 GMT kathiel said:

What have you bought in the last year or so that has really outperformed?

As we come to the end of the year, I'd be interested in what people have bought that has done exceptionally well.  Tell us about it.

In my wife’s account, her AAPL has done well, up 48.6%, her GOOG/ GOOGL is up nearly 61%, INTC is up 91% (bought very low), MSFT up 56%, AMZN up 82%. I haven’t done as well in my account, overall just up about 5%. My better “picks” are Costco which is up 48% and Visa, up 24.75%. Now if you want my “losers”, I have a few (too many)!

Win

[habsui]

NVDA

[anitya]

META and UBER, each nearly 200% higher. Picking a few winners coming into 2023 or in 2023 is not as skillful as picking winners coming into 2022 or even 2024. Let us do this at the end of 2024.

[keppelbay]

Do you folks have defined exit strategies for these high fliers? I'm terrible at knowing when to sell...

My focus is on building the income stream. My best buy of the year was KIO. Up 13% mkt price for 24% TR including distributions. Currently distributing at 11.7% (higher on my cost basis). Also happy with WDI, currently trading with a modest capital gain and >12% distribution. Distributions reinvested elsewhere.

[chang]

Dec 27, 2023 6:33:37 GMT anitya said:

Picking a few winners coming into 2023 or in 2023 is not as skillful as picking winners coming into 2022 or even 2024. Let us do this at the end of 2024.

I don't agree with the implication or phrasing of this. "Picking winners" is essentially impossible over a 1-year period. Otherwise, we would all have been invested 100% in NVDA, META, and TSLA in 2023. I think the stock market is a crapshoot over a 1-year period. No need to repeat Graham's famous aphorism about voting machines.

Obviously IMvHO.

---

Since you ask, my best stocks were Novo Nordisk and UBS, both up ∼70% since I bought them during the last year. YTD numbers are 51.74% and 66.26% respectively.

These were not my highest conviction buys. They made it through my screens and I bought them. I'm obviously pleased with the results, but am totally surprised.

Higher conviction buys (during the same ∼1 year time frame) were Nestle, British American Tobacco, and Roche, all currently underwater.

If we're going to brag about winners, we ought to disclose losers as well. Here are the returns in my foreign stock account, all started (at different times) during the last year:

Novo-Nordisk       +73%
Sanofi             -11%
TotalEnergies      +27%
ING Group          +50%
Equinor            - 9%
Nestle             -15%
Novartis           + 1%
Roche              -25%
UBS                +69%
Shell              +19%
Brit Amer Tobacco  -12%
Rio Tinto          +15%
Sandoz             +∞%(shares received from Novartis spin-off)

[steelpony10]

kathiel ,

       Continued to add to most everything we hold because it’s all still on sale, probably until 2031. In 2024 and beyond mostly to VTI and a developing pile of cash. Still driving income up in small increments with reinvestments.

        I’m not a trader because short term values are unknowns and I believe are addictive gambles but future values of well run businesses and funds should be up at least because of inflationary raises and increased earnings from innovative products.

[keppelbay]

chang,

Fair point! Worst of 2023 was:

- PDO:  I booked a 5.8% loss on shares bought this year, but this was more than offset by 8 months of distributions for a small net positive TR. The sale was to capture a tax loss to offset short term gains, swapped into PAXS, as noted before.

However, I'm sitting on long-term capital losses in PDO shares bought more than a year ago: down 28% on average price, net loss 7% after distributions. With some patience this will turn out OK.

Similarly, AGNC : down 36% on average price, net loss 13% after distributions. 

I'm not good at knowing when to sell.

Dec 27, 2023 9:20:52 GMT chang said:

Dec 27, 2023 6:33:37 GMT anitya said:

If we're going to brag about winners, we ought to disclose losers as well.

[Mustang]

No losses. Kind of boring but within expectations. I am really glad I kept buying when everything was disappointing earlier in the year.

Selling: ABALX (RMDs) +13.93%
Buying: VWENX +14.25%
VWIAX +6.93%

If the Fed cuts rates 2024 should be good.

[Karen]

Best YTD
FSELX    +79.5%
FNCMX   +45.7%
FDSVX   +35.6%

Worst YTD
VGWAX  + 8.6%
VWNDX  +14.9%
PRWCX   +18.7%

[mnfish]

Had some nice, realized, gains late last year and earlier this year from 2022 purchases of META, NFLX and AMD. Those proceeds and other realized gains (AAPL, GILD, QCOM) are now part of a 30% holding in a MM fund earning +5%. Still have a 65% stock position so I'm just sitting back enjoying the ride and waiting to see if this year's gains are going to be mostly temporary or not. If so, I've got plenty of dry powder to use. If not, party on.

[racqueteer]

<sigh> I have no great 2023 stories, mores the pity.  I simply didn't believe in this magic levitation of the market back when it would have made a difference.  I'm right around flat for the last two years; lost very little in 2022 and didn't gain a lot this year.  Took no chances; so, flat.  I think more interesting would be the cycle results for the last two years.  Maybe I wouldn't be as depressed... 

[richardsok]

Longer term, my best moves were owning big in ET and PBR-A for most of the year. Still hold plenty, even after taking gains on 2/3 of PBR-A.

Shorter term, I went very heavy into PHK and PDI late Oct/early Nov and quickly dumped the latter before giving back. (That's one I timed mostly right -- jettisoned a bunch of the PDI somewhat too soon.) Still over allocated in PHK and own some PAXS.

I improved my self-discipline and execution of my technical theories, consequently 2023 was one of the best years I've ever had. The next test will be how well I handle a big market reversal. Things can go ugly fast, we know.

As ever, I was clumsy with precious metals. The best I have done there was in selling and rolling SLV covered calls, which is still on-going.

I enlarged my income bucket by rolling div-caps among preferred ETFs & CEFs. (Still doing it, though I don;t usually talk about it on B/S/W)., I started around Aug/Sept, as I recall and was discouraged with the price erosion, but I could see every time I realized another short term loss, I had captured an XD and I was re-buying even lower so I stayed with the process and it is doing well.

I did speculate from time to time, most recently FNGU, TLTW PAPI and CEFD.    These are all on hair-trigger

Also started out doing OK trading crypto ETFs, but success was, at best, inconsistent.

I'm somewhat pleased with the year -- but still fret trying to consider a create-and-forget income portfolio for my estate.

[acksurf]

Bought FTEC earlier in year was good but as usual didn't have enough invested for it to make huge difference. Have a fair amount in VUG which also did well. SCHD lagged.

[anitya]

chang ,

I am surprised UBS was not a high conviction for you. If I look at GFC or 2023, when the Govt is desperate to give you another bank, it has consistently resulted in the acquirer receiving value at the expense of the stakeholders of the eliminated one. I thought that was as much of a layup as one can get in the stock market.

Yes, my phrasing was poor. We are playing a probabilities game. Your phrasing of "high conviction" is more appropriate.

I was not being serious in participating in this thread as I thought the OP started the thread only as a Holiday cocktail conversation.   If members are interested, it would be good for them to reflect on how they changed (hopefully, improved) their investing behavior in 2023. 

May be Kathie will start a thread to share "high conviction" buys for 2024!

I agree that just because one has "high conviction" does not mean they can realize the entire upside within a short time frame.   

To me a high conviction buy is one I buy in my Roth IRA as that is entirely my money; whereas, in IRA and taxable accounts I have a silent partner (IRS).

[kathiel]

My Best buy this year was ARM. I bought a week or two after the IPO and got it at a good price. I've owned it about 10 weeks and it is up 52% in that time.

Best Buy ever - APPL - up about 1200%.

[anitya]

I want to trim something to trigger gains this year as I anticipate a lot more income next year from maturing Treasuries (accrued market discount). I did not plan the income accrual properly.

The possible candidates are: META, INTC, GE. META is the one that looks dodgy to my eye. Any thoughts would be appreciated.

I am thinking of selling META because I think in the short term the AI hype has gone too far into the Big 7 stock prices. Of course, if I itch to get back in there is no tax time limit to buy back.

Thanks.

[mnfish]

Dec 27, 2023 13:13:40 GMT Karen said:

Best YTD
FSELX    +79.5%
FNCMX   +45.7%
FDSVX   +35.6%

Worst YTD
VGWAX  + 8.6%
VWNDX  +14.9%
PRWCX   +18.7%

No mention of any purchases of FSELX by anyone on the Buy/Sell thread since the inception of Big Bang. Probably just an oversight. Since the OP asked, "What have you bought in the last year or so that has really outperformed?" perhaps you were referring to a position you already held. 
If one already held, say, 1,000 shares as of 12/16/22 they would have re-invested $282 of Divs & CGs at $15.74 and picked up 18 more shares. On 4/14/23 another $46 of CG re-invested at $19.15 would net another 3 shares. On 12/21/23 a nice CG and another Div would have re-invested $1,733 at $24.07 and got 70 more shares.
As of today, the 18sh would have a 56% gain, the 3sh would have a 27.5% gain and the 70sh would have a 1.4% gain.

[Karen]

Dec 29, 2023 13:16:13 GMT mnfish said:

Dec 27, 2023 13:13:40 GMT Karen said:

Best YTD
FSELX    +79.5%
FNCMX   +45.7%
FDSVX   +35.6%

Worst YTD
VGWAX  + 8.6%
VWNDX  +14.9%
PRWCX   +18.7%

No mention of any purchases of FSELX by anyone on the Buy/Sell thread since the inception of Big Bang. Probably just an oversight. Since the OP asked, "What have you bought in the last year or so that has really outperformed?" perhaps you were referring to a position you already held. 
If one already held, say, 1,000 shares as of 12/16/22 they would have re-invested $282 of Divs & CGs at $15.74 and picked up 18 more shares. On 4/14/23 another $46 of CG re-invested at $19.15 would net another 3 shares. On 12/21/23 a nice CG and another Div would have re-invested $1,733 at $24.07 and got 70 more shares.
As of today, the 18sh would have a 56% gain, the 3sh would have a 27.5% gain and the 70sh would have a 1.4% gain.

I'm not sure what you are getting at here?  You seem to be challenging some of my posts, but I'll indulge you as best I can.

First, we don't post the specific details of our trades here or on any other forums.

We added to all six of the above-listed, existing positions at YE 2022, some just to put money to work, some were increased for other reasons.  (I thought that's what the OP asked for?)

To wit, we have held a core position in FSELX since very near its inception, largely based on recommendations on it that he received years ago from a couple of hubby's associates in the bizness who specialized in technology. 

Annually, at YE reviews, we adjust the values of some of our holdings.  At our YE 2022 review, we added to our FSELX position as we (read, "he") projected that semis would significantly outperform in 2023. We also at that time added to the values of the other five listed OEFs.

During our recent 2023 YE review, we have reduced our FSELX exposure back to its standard value and increased exposure to Small Caps for 2024. 

EDIT:  I just went back to verify what I stated here is 100% accurate.  I noted one error.  We did NOT have a VGWAX position at YE 2022. We first bought it in May 2023, so it is actually UP a wee bit less than the previously noted YTD %.  All of the other noted YTD %'s are accurate as they relate to positions that were in place as of YE 2022 and added to at that time.