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Post by chang on Dec 12, 2023 19:28:26 GMT
Is it too late to buy Apple?
I was thinking of making a LT B&H.
What do others think?
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Post by fishingrod on Dec 12, 2023 20:06:27 GMT
chang , Why don't you wait for a pullback? Lol I don't buy their products but the stock is, well you know. I personally think AMZN is a better bet. Not one company selling their products, but one company selling millions of products from millions of companies.
I didn't want to give you any confirmation bias.
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Post by chang on Dec 12, 2023 20:28:13 GMT
Makes sense, but I can’t remember how many times I’ve see a stock go up 50% while waiting for a 10% pullback.
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Post by rhythmmethod on Dec 12, 2023 20:45:10 GMT
Makes sense, but I can’t remember how many times I’ve see a stock go up 50% while waiting for a 10% pullback. AAPL is by FAR my strongest hold, up >200%. I've trimmed it but always bot back at more than my trim price. Although sometimes I turn AAPL profit into income, so apples and oranges HAHA. My other LTH in LCG are MSFT and AMZN.Hard to go wrong with those. |
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Post by mnfish on Dec 12, 2023 21:01:17 GMT
I sold some at $185 and have another sell order at $195. At one time it was 30% of my portfolio and if my sell order fills, I'll still own a big chunk in my taxable acct.
I don't like a 30 PE along with declining revenues since QE 12/2022. At $6 EPS if it goes to a 25 PE then you're at $150 which is where it was in March.
As far as AMZN - Last qtr their net income was 1.8% in retail. AWS is still just 16% of total revenue but 74% of income. Nobody wants to compete with the retail business with no profit and AWS is up against some pretty tough competition and deep pockets. But then, I was bad-mouthing them years ago when their net income was 1/10 of a percent and the stock has done pretty good, so what do I know. It seems everyone talks about their outrageous PE but they still buy it.
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Post by bb2 on Dec 12, 2023 21:02:27 GMT
Not a B&H here for a new owner, IMHO. China growth is slowing. No AI to speak of yet - seems like a missed opportunity. Valuation > 30 P/E. P/FCF about 30. Ratings are solidly in the "HOLD" category. The services story may not be as strong as it once was.
I'm trimming after the 1st.
BTW, China's chip effort is huge. Lots of young people going into the field, (TV love interest dramas set in fab plants, for example), gov incentives that put ours to shame. An not just cutting edge chips but the whole lineup, so I'm just starting to try to figure out if TI, micron, et al will be facing strong China competition maybe sooner than later.
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Post by chang on Dec 12, 2023 21:05:19 GMT
My PFE (which appears to be headed toward bankruptcy) is sitting on 120% profit, BUT I can sell half of it and balance my TLH net loss YTD. Fido has a good page that shows tax gain/loss YTD.
So the next day PFE is up and AAPL is down, I might sell one and buy the other.
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Post by fishingrod on Dec 12, 2023 21:22:01 GMT
I don't know if you already own. MGK,QQQ,VUG? Diversification without giving up too much? Tax efficient. Large growth safety.
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Post by uncleharley on Dec 12, 2023 23:00:02 GMT
IBM has been outperforming AAPL for the past 2.5 yrs or so. IBM seems to be doing better with Cloud and AI technology.
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Post by chang on Dec 13, 2023 19:47:22 GMT
My PFE (which appears to be headed toward bankruptcy) ............ Down 7.5% not even 24 hours after I called it! Just when it couldn't go any lower ..... what a TURD! |
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Post by mnfish on Dec 13, 2023 22:44:00 GMT
Sold some more AAPL today @ $195
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 13, 2023 23:05:12 GMT
Makes sense, but I can’t remember how many times I’ve see a stock go up 50% while waiting for a 10% pullback. Happened to me also many times. Is there a good practice or solution for this? This year has been such a bull market. Markets make sure they prove all forecasters wrong again and again.  |
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Post by anitya on Dec 13, 2023 23:19:12 GMT
My PFE (which appears to be headed toward bankruptcy) ............ Down 7.5% not even 24 hours after I called it! Just when it couldn't go any lower ..... what a TURD!Wow. Sorry to see that. HC sector did very well today which means PFE lost about 10% on the day - disappointing 2024 revenue guidance, updating what was given only two months ago. Good news is dividend rate is now 6%. I admire people who hold individual stocks - I can only stomach them for a trade. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 13, 2023 23:28:50 GMT
No "A Charlie Brown Christmas" unless you have access to Apple TV.
I hate Apple.
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Post by kathiel on Dec 13, 2023 23:49:44 GMT
It is never too late to buy Apple. I'm ready to sell another small slice since it. hit a high today. I have a limit order in at 198. Apple is up over 1200% since I bought it, and I feared that I was getting in too late!
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Post by chang on Dec 14, 2023 2:42:00 GMT
I don't know if you already own. MGK,QQQ,VUG? Diversification without giving up too much? Tax efficient. Large growth safety. Actually I own a fair amount of FBGRX - it’s 100% of my Roth; and part of my TIRA. So I am already an “owner” through some funds (I think JENIX has some, too. And FPURX!) But yeah, after today, I think it’s probably best to keep this on the rainy day list for the eventual dip. |
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kent
Ensign
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Post by kent on Dec 14, 2023 4:04:11 GMT
I have 6 figure in Apple stock, not selling it either. I am waiting when they come out with their electric car, hoping it will take off just like Tesla. May be I am dreaming lol.
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Post by mnfish on Dec 14, 2023 12:21:01 GMT
I’m done selling it this year and it’s now 18% of my total portfolio, down from 30% in 2021. Still a very large amount of my taxable account and will probably trim that in 2024.
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Post by kathiel on Dec 15, 2023 2:33:53 GMT
Since I buy only individual stocks (no mutual finds or ETFs) I have a "rule" that no one stock should constitute more than 5% of my portfolio. Thus, I've sold off a number of "slices" of Apple over the years.
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Post by bb2 on Dec 15, 2023 18:14:40 GMT
For years, AAPL was undervalued relative to the rest of tech with a PE in the teens. Innovation was in the form of a desktop designed to look like a gum ball. The IPhone came out in 2007 and that's when APPL began to outperform the S&P, though it still took 10 years for the real love to come Apple's way, in 2018. But now there's no relative valuation gap and the growth fundamentals just aren't that great right now for AAPL. Competition, China, lack of the next great consumer product also weigh. Everyone already has an IPhone and there are a lot of people in China who will be switching to Hauwei. Something may come along but I very much doubt it will be a car. China has the lead there already - if not for tariffs, we'd be seeing a lot more BYD's on the road. Headsets/VR? - probably not. Niche product. Glasses? I don't know.
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Post by chang on Dec 15, 2023 18:32:06 GMT
What if Apple comes out with a car?
Brand loyalty alone might be huge, plus whatever technological advancements they might make.
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Post by anitya on Dec 15, 2023 18:32:14 GMT
Is there a contract manufacturer for cars, like TSM for chips?
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Post by bb2 on Dec 15, 2023 18:52:39 GMT
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Post by chang on Dec 15, 2023 19:04:11 GMT
It wouldn’t be an ordinary EV iCar. That would be too obviously copying Tesla. Apple doesn’t copycat.
I’m thinking it would be a flying car, or something revolutionary like that.
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Post by bb2 on Dec 15, 2023 19:26:06 GMT
Is a flying car something that would prompt you to AAPL today? There are "flying cars" being made today - Maybe Apple should buy one of those companies.
AAPL is working on battery tech, so maybe that's a catalyst if they come up with something new. Could apply to cars/transportation.
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Post by richardsok on Dec 15, 2023 19:26:35 GMT
What if Apple comes out with a car? Brand loyalty alone might be huge, plus whatever technological advancements they might make. I think there'd be a growing chorus of rumors and leaks well before any un-veiling or pre-announcements. It's a lot harder to conceal a pre-production ramp-up of auto parts -- frames, trannys, windshields, factories, shipping contracts, etc -- than it is for a hand-held device. |
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Post by chang on Dec 15, 2023 19:34:41 GMT
I just noticed that Apple is 4.5% of VIG. So among my funds, I probably own more of it than I was aware.
I just checked; it’s owned by VWNAX as well.
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Post by anitya on Dec 15, 2023 20:16:56 GMT
Does Apple like to get grease on its hands? As a percentage of its total assets on its balance sheet, how much is PPE? Less than 15%. TESLA, nearly 75%.
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Post by bb2 on Dec 17, 2023 18:20:16 GMT
Been reading about Apple's push into health, which might be another catalyst/revenue source. They have a couple of programming frameworks for health apps, one for the consumer and one for professionals conducting studies. Also, the watch, that has AFib functionality FDA approved. My wife's watch probably saved her life, as she likes to say. Watch data led to a Dr. visit during which they put her in a wheelchair and took her to the ICU.
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Post by howaya on Dec 17, 2023 21:13:43 GMT
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