|
Post by stripermannh on Feb 4, 2023 13:15:51 GMT
The price of natural gas seems to have come way down. I have NO experience in this but was thinking about tossing a small amount of $$$ in NG ETF's. BOIL, KOLD, UNL, UNG and UGAZF ETF's are all available. Any suggestions for investing in this "widowmaker". The price has come down so fast and low is seems like relatively good bet.
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Feb 4, 2023 13:39:59 GMT
I would wait until the price shows some sign of going up.
|
|
|
Post by Fearchar on Feb 4, 2023 14:36:52 GMT
I've followed the natural gas market for years because it directly competes with my business (Nuclear Power). Here's a good link for the weekly market analysis: www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/Anyhow, I took a quick look at BOIL and strongly advise against that fund. BOIL is highly leveraged; it is basically a collection of natural gas futures. Current contract is Sept 2022. That doesn't even get you to the next heating season. It's also a high expense ratio fund. Historically the performance of BOIL has been terrible. Probably the best time to speculate on Nat Gas would be when the rig count bottoms out. Rig count has been rising for a few years now and is currently at a plateau. Drillers aren't entirely stupid, so they have seen the handwriting on the wall too. In other words industry insiders aren't investing any more; so why would you? It could be a few years until the market (rig count) really bottoms.
|
|
|
Post by marpro on Feb 4, 2023 15:02:02 GMT
The price of natural gas seems to have come way down. I have NO experience in this but was thinking about tossing a small amount of $$$ in NG ETF's. BOIL, KOLD, UNL, UNG and UGAZF ETF's are all available. Any suggestions for investing in this "widowmaker". The price has come down so fast and low is seems like relatively good bet. I checked UNG. The cash flow index is way down, and it seems that there was some interest earlier, but went back down again. There is no improvement.
|
|
|
Post by richardsok on Feb 4, 2023 19:22:12 GMT
Yup. I have a toehold in UNG from a couple of days ago. Am regretting it already.
|
|
|
Post by stripermannh on Feb 5, 2023 12:31:57 GMT
The five day loss is 12%. 6 months it's down 71%. Just wondering how low can it really go from here? Appreciate all the replies so far.
|
|
|
Post by bobfl on Feb 5, 2023 13:17:41 GMT
The five day loss is 12%. 6 months it's down 71%. Just wondering how low can it really go from here? Appreciate all the replies so far. Feb 1 2016, it hit what appears to be the low of 1.71, but that's not important if you own it. Look at the 5 yr chart and max chart and look at the price movement. Don't sell at the bottom. I retired in 05 when it hit 13.92. A driller started drilling on our land. Nice checks came in. Then the price dropped and he shut down the wells. Have you studied the "futures" to see where they expect the prices to go, and when? Do you own or are you thinking about buying? Also... www.naturalgasintel.com/bloodshed-in-natural-gas-futures-cash-markets-as-temperatures-quickly-thaw/
|
|
|
Post by yogibearbull on Feb 5, 2023 16:28:12 GMT
Twitter LINK on Freeport, TX LNG plant. It will have opposite effects on foreign and US natural gas prices.
|
|
|
Post by marpro on Feb 5, 2023 16:34:53 GMT
Based on weekly and daily charts, there is some more, but not much to go down. I see that there is not much interest in new investing and the cash flow is trending down, probably cashing out at a loss.
|
|
|
Post by stripermannh on Feb 5, 2023 22:16:16 GMT
The five day loss is 12%. 6 months it's down 71%. Just wondering how low can it really go from here? Appreciate all the replies so far. Feb 1 2016, it hit what appears to be the low of 1.71, but that's not important if you own it. Look at the 5 yr chart and max chart and look at the price movement. Don't sell at the bottom. I retired in 05 when it hit 13.92. A driller started drilling on our land. Nice checks came in. Then the price dropped and he shut down the wells. Have you studied the "futures" to see where they expect the prices to go, and when? Do you own or are you thinking about buying? Also... www.naturalgasintel.com/bloodshed-in-natural-gas-futures-cash-markets-as-temperatures-quickly-thaw/I am thinking of taking a speculative position (roll the dice) mainly based on "How much further can it really go down from here?" No I haven't studied the futures, I'm just a novice (right now) on natural gas. My thinking is if there are too many producing wells then the number should decrease quickly as the producers will not keep paying for a losing investment. It's in that period when the winter is waning and before the summer heat when the gas fired electrical generators will begin using natural gas in abundance to supply the HVACs. Hence the lower prices and a good time to buy? And what's going to happen in Ukraine? I've read reports of Putin massing troops (500,000), if he escalates then what? Europe seems to have lucked out with a mild winter this year and the gas inventories in Europe are in great shape. China is now recovering from their zero covid policies and their economy should be returning to normal. The restart of the Freeport LNG export facility could lend some support to U.S. natural gas prices. Who knows?
|
|
|
Post by bobfl on Feb 6, 2023 13:52:49 GMT
Yup. I have a toehold in UNG from a couple of days ago. Am regretting it already. Richard, That one holds "Future Contract On Natural Gas Futr May20". Is there any other way to play this? When oil crashed a number of years ago, I bought pipelines which ended profitable. Since I deal in preferreds I checked preferreds for energy stocks and was surprised at the super high yields issue prices. It amazes me how much interest they have to give to borrow money, but their preferreds don't seem to be affected by the drop in gas prices. When oil crashed, for a short while, I was able to get great deals on their preferreds, like Kinder Morgan. Not this time. Thanks.
|
|
|
Post by bobfl on Feb 6, 2023 13:54:39 GMT
I am thinking of taking a speculative position ... In what? Thanks
|
|
bruno
Lieutenant
Posts: 57
|
Post by bruno on Feb 7, 2023 17:18:38 GMT
I just got my Electric and Gas bills and they have about doubled and they are NOT going down any time soon.
|
|
|
Post by marpro on Feb 7, 2023 17:41:20 GMT
I just got my Electric and Gas bills and they have about doubled and they are NOT going down any time soon. Your bills could double due to the weather conditions. It is the rate that counts. Did your rates double? Did the companies' earnings double? I doubt.
|
|
bruno
Lieutenant
Posts: 57
|
Post by bruno on Feb 7, 2023 22:13:41 GMT
I just got my Electric and Gas bills and they have about doubled and they are NOT going down any time soon. Your bills could double due to the weather conditions. It is the rate that counts. Did your rates double? Did the companies' earnings double? I doubt. I live in OK a State with a LOT of NG. I worked in Oil and Gas for 46 yrs. 2021 ICE storm Oklahoma Natural gas ran low and was buying gas on the spot market. Most utilities in Oklahoma buy their gas at the Oklahoma hub, where prices hit close to $1,200 a unit during the storm. That was about 600 times the prices in the days before the storm. ONG has went before OK corp Commision for a cost adjustment. EACH Customers of Oklahoma Natural Gas will be paying an extra $7.80 per month for the next 25 years under a plan approved Tuesday by the three-member Oklahoma Corporation Commission . The fee will go toward paying almost $1.4 billion in natural gas costs racked up by the utility last February during a winter storm. WONDER what the nest STORM will COST us??? This is WHY I own OKE
|
|
|
Post by marpro on Feb 7, 2023 22:19:55 GMT
Your bills could double due to the weather conditions. It is the rate that counts. Did your rates double? Did the companies' earnings double? I doubt. I live in OK a State with a LOT of NG. I worked in Oil and Gas for 46 yrs. 2021 ICE storm Oklahoma Natural gas ran low and was buying gas on the spot market. ONG has went before OK corp Commision for a cost adjustment. EACH Customers of Oklahoma Natural Gas will be paying an extra $7.80 per month for the next 25 years under a plan approved Tuesday by the three-member Oklahoma Corporation Commission . The fee will go toward paying almost $1.4 billion in natural gas costs racked up by the utility last February during a winter storm. WONDER what the nest STORM will COST us??? This is WHY I own OKE Sorry about your new fees. I knew that it is weather related. I understand that we also had ice storm in my hometown. Right now, we are staying temporarily far north in the snow country. Even though our home was empty, my bill for this month was way up. That is how, I came up with my previous post.
|
|
|
Post by anitya on Feb 17, 2023 7:48:01 GMT
Yup. I have a toehold in UNG from a couple of days ago. Am regretting it already. Still holding? Have you increased your toehold?
|
|
|
Post by richardsok on Feb 17, 2023 12:37:07 GMT
Yup. I have a toehold in UNG from a couple of days ago. Am regretting it already. Still holding? Have you increased your toehold? Still holding. Still regretting. Fortunately just a small position. No increases yet. I believe gas is too low to remain down here. Tells you all you need to know about my opinions.
|
|
|
Post by stripermannh on Feb 17, 2023 14:36:56 GMT
Still holding? Have you increased your toehold? Still holding. Still regretting. Fortunately just a small position. No increases yet. I believe gas is too low to remain down here. Tells you all you need to know about my opinions. I'm going to venture in today with 2 small positions, BOIL and UNG. Both are currently at 52 week lows. Based on my track record I suggest everyone should consider selling and saving themselves some money.
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Feb 17, 2023 17:31:43 GMT
Yeah, the intraday, daily, weekly, & very long term charts indicate there is more downside remaining, but NG is closer to the bottom than it was 6 months ago.
|
|
|
Post by cactusjack on Feb 17, 2023 19:01:10 GMT
I have taken a somewhat different way to approach this sector. I have used LPG and KYN and so far, so good. I am starting to think they are looking a bit toppy, however. The falling knife devil in me keeps getting tempted by UNG though.
|
|
|
Post by anitya on Feb 17, 2023 20:30:28 GMT
Still holding? Have you increased your toehold? Still holding. Still regretting. Fortunately just a small position. No increases yet. I believe gas is too low to remain down here. Tells you all you need to know about my opinions. Seems like a good time to add! Today is as good as any. Edit: Now I read the rest of the forum and I see other posters (not uncleharley included) thought it is a good time to add. PSA - www.thestreet.com/investing/why-ung-is-worst-investment-in-the-world-opinion-11407750
|
|
|
Post by mnfish on Feb 17, 2023 20:35:26 GMT
From Wells Advisors - Natural gas is expensive to store so producers have an incentive to cut prices first. Prices are searching for a bottom and may not recover for some time to come.
|
|
|
Post by marpro on Feb 18, 2023 0:05:52 GMT
Yes, it is geopolitical news that has direct impact on the prices. uncleharley could be correct, because they have so much in storage. It could take a long time for LNG investment to recover. Do they pay any dividend?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 18, 2023 0:35:57 GMT
Yes, it is geopolitical news that has direct impact on the prices. uncleharley could be correct, because they have so much in storage. It could take a long time for LNG investment to recover. Do they pay any dividend?
That is a stark contrast to all the doom and gloom and tales that Putin had everyone by the short hairs.
|
|
|
Post by uncleharley on Feb 18, 2023 2:51:17 GMT
Yes, it is geopolitical news that has direct impact on the prices. uncleharley could be correct, because they have so much in storage. It could take a long time for LNG investment to recover. Do they pay any dividend?
KMI would be a candidate.
|
|
|
Post by marpro on Feb 18, 2023 15:22:53 GMT
Yes, it is geopolitical news that has direct impact on the prices. uncleharley could be correct, because they have so much in storage. It could take a long time for LNG investment to recover. Do they pay any dividend?
KMI would be a candidate. Thanks, uncleharley . It looks good so far. A good price could be below $17/sh. I will wait for MACD to turn up again. I will check its charts.
Add/Edit: The most recent analysis by M* says that its fair value is $17.5/sh. I am not convinced of it, but probably at $17.25/sh.
|
|
|
Post by anitya on Dec 16, 2023 16:52:32 GMT
|
|
|
Post by chang on Dec 17, 2023 9:31:52 GMT
There is a "nuclear renaissance" underway involving smaller reactors and advanced design and technology. If you Google SMR (small modular reactor) or AMR (advanced modular reactor) you'll see dozens of articles. These are in the 10-200MW range (as opposed to the 1-2GW size of large commercial reactors like the EDF EPR or Westinghouse AP1400), of modular design, with lower costs and construction periods, and higher efficiency resulting from using molten salts or gas as the reactor coolant. These are often referred to as Gen IV designs compared to the current Gen III/Gen III+ technology. These have been discussed and debated for decades, but are finally becoming a reality. China just commissioned a new gas-cooled reactor: www.reuters.com/world/china/china-starts-up-worlds-first-fourth-generation-nuclear-reactor-2023-12-06/ As to the impact on the oil and gas sector? Sorry, I really have no idea. I don't have the knowledge of economics required to understand those things.
|
|